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Articles by Andrew Kureth
Europe must not repeat its mistakes with Abyssinia
Western leaders undermined Abyssinia’s brave struggle against Italy in 1935. They must not make the same mistake with Ukraine. Throughout the colonial period, Abyssinia (known by its inhabitants as the Ethiopian Empire) remained the only country in Africa that was not colonized by any European power. Despite Italy having established colonies in Eritrea and Somalia, which both bordered Abyssinia, the country managed to resist Italy’s attempts to conquer it toward the end of the 19th century.
The shifting winds of global economics
Global economic winds are shifting, and not necessarily in the way most people expect. We are living in a time of immense geopolitical shifts. This is not surprising, as change is a normal occurrence. However, there are periods when changes take place more rapidly and on a larger scale. Shifts in geopolitics can be driven by a variety of factors, including technological, demographic, and environmental developments, as well as political movements and changes in society.
The dangers of narratives and moralizing
Skip to content Around the globe, elites are becoming dangerously attached to the dogmatism of their political worldviews, instead of finding tolerance for other values. Each country’s ruling elite creates a narrative that blends fact with fiction, molded to fit their views and goals. Typically, these stories divide people between the good “us” and the bad “them.” While they can be useful tools, it is dangerous to believe these narratives too wholeheartedly.
Italy’s elections have not produced a ‘fascist’ result
Italy’s turn to the right won’t lead to “fascism,” but it might bring a more confident Rome, new ideas, and less European centralization. Even before Italy’s general election at the end of September, Western media were sounding the alarm – with near hysteria – that a radical right-wing government was going to take over Italy and threaten its democracy. The political establishment in Brussels and other capitals joined in the hand-wringing.
The perils of technocratic European integration
European defense and additional integration are fine goals, but they should not come at the cost of greater centralization. In 2017 at the Sorbonne, French President Emmanuel Macron gave a much commented-on speech in which he laid out his vision of Europe. In a nutshell, he presented the European Union as a consolidated, national state. It was a blueprint for a large French Republic, with a dominating administration and centralized finances, especially debt.
The ECB: Broken rules, frivolous policy
For years, the ECB has egregiously violated its own statutes. Today’s high inflation is the predictable result. For the first time in more than 10 years, the European Central Bank has increased its key interest rate, raising it by 0.5 percent. The move follows a long period of decreasing interest rates and pumping money into the economy via so-called quantitative easing. Europe, like the United States, was flooded with liquidity.
Inflation: Causes and consequences
GIS has long warned that inflation was around the corner – not due to Covid or war, but because of profligate monetary policy.
China’s energy and climate plans under threat
Skip to content Recent geopolitical shocks could prompt China to become more risk-averse and renege on past climate pledges. × In a nutshell China plans an ambitious energy transformation Beijing’s targets allow for some leeway Security and economic concerns could derail these plans Over the last two years, Chinese leaders announced several ambitious climate-related targets and plans, most notably reaching carbon peak by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Europe is vulnerable to a Russian gas disruption- GIS Reports
Europe is ill-prepared for a large-scale disruption of Russian gas supplies, making it vulnerable to arm-twisting in the event of a conflict in Ukraine. × In a nutshell Russia has already slowed gas supplies to Europe LNG imports would not make up for a lack of Russian pipeline gas A large-scale cutoff of gas would hobble the European economy Since last summer, Europe has been in the midst of a natural gas supply crisis – a bind that an escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis only makes worse.
What is driving advancements in military technology?
The U.S.-China competition and private sector innovation is driving the rapid development of military technology. Drones, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, lasers and robotics will all become much more commonplace.
What does the Bolsonaro-Lula showdown mean for Brazil?
Skip to content Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is in a weak position ahead of elections in October. His most likely opponent is former President Lula da Silva, himself a highly controversial figure. These options offer little optimism for the country’s stability and investment climate. Could a “third-way” candidate gain traction?
Shifting world order: Will China replace the U.S.?
For Washington, Beijing presents both economic and military dilemmas. As China tries to replace the United States as the global leader, countries that benefit from the current world order can help by taking on a bigger share of the burden for maintaining it.
Peru: Pedro Castillo faces strong headwinds
Pedro Castillo, Peru’s fifth president in five years, is in just as tenuous a position as his predecessors. Elected with a razor-thin margin, he is balancing an opposition bent on forcing him out with an extreme wing in his party determined to pull him farther to the left.
The Poles may spoil Paris party
Poland's Prime Minister Beata Szydlo of the conservative Law and Justice party | EPA The Poles may spoil Paris party The new conservative government in Warsaw threatens to upend EU climate policy. By Andrew Kureth 11/24/15, 6:56 PM CET Updated 11/28/15, 5:22 PM CET WARSAW — Poland’s new conservative government is threatening to veto a deal at the Paris climate summit, making clear its determination to protect the country’s large coal industry.
Russia plays the Polish history card
Germans tanks cross a river into Polish territory m06 September 1939 | AFP/Getty Russia plays the Polish history card Russia’s ambassador prods Polish history, but the reaction is muted.
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