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Articles by Andrew Pease
What to Watch in The Face of Tariff Turbulence
These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page. The information, analysis, and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or entity. This material is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security.
Europe - A Bright Spot Amid Market Uncertainty
Key takeaways: European equities have outperformed U.S. equities since the start of 2025 Increased bank lending, easing inflation and a boost to the German economy are some of the key reasons behind this. The escalating trade war with the U.S. could derail some of this progress, but for now, we’re cautiously optimistic on Europe. News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value.
2025 Annual Global Market Outlook: The Mechazilla Moment
by Andrew Pease, Russell Investments Executive summary: We expect that the U.S. will achieve a soft-landing in 2025, with the economy growing at a trend-like pace of 2.0%. Outside the U.S., we think growth will likely remain under pressure, with trade-policy uncertainty and tariffs weighing on Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. We believe that post-U.S. election dynamics, improving earnings, and attractive valuations may create compelling opportunities for U.S. small caps in the year ahead.
Trump’s Election Win: Key Takeaways for Investors Globally
As Donald Trump returns to the White House, early signals suggest major shifts in tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration policy—each with potential impacts on inflation, global stability, and financial markets. While history shows that U.S. markets tend to perform regardless of political leadership, the full impact of Trump’s policies could bring new challenges and opportunities for investors globally once he is in office.
Q4 Global Market Outlook 2024: U.S. Soft Landing: Is It Possible?
Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile.
2024 Global Market Outlook - Q4 update: Definitely Maybe
Executive summary: Our base-case scenario is for the U.S. to achieve a soft landing, but there’s a lesser chance that the slowdown overshoots into a recession. We expect the economic outlook to continue improving in Europe as growth increases and inflation moderates. We have a neutral view on equities, with an emphasis on stock selection. The latest data suggests the U.S. economy is headed toward a soft landing rather than a recession.
2024 Global Market Outlook - Q4 update: Definitely Maybe
by Andrew Pease, Russell Investments Executive summary: Our base-case scenario is for the U.S. to achieve a soft landing, but there's a lesser chance that the slowdown overshoots into a recession. We expect the economic outlook to continue improving in Europe as growth increases and inflation moderates. We have a neutral view on equities, with an emphasis on stock selection. The latest data suggests the U.S. economy is headed toward a soft landing rather than a recession.
2024 Global Market Outlook - Q3 update: Three-scenario problem
by Andrew Pease, Russell Investments Executive summary: Our base case scenario is for the U.S. economy to achieve a soft landing, but we still see a 35% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. Conditions are improving in most other developed economies, including in the eurozone, the UK, and Japan, as they catch up from relatively lackluster post-Covid gross domestic product (GDP) growth trajectories.
Election year: The Impact on Institutional Investors
Following are highlights of their 50-minute conversation. Periodic timestamps are provided. To start the conversation, Eibel asked Pease to provide context on the upcoming U.S. election this fall. Do elections really impact portfolios? We certainly focus on them during election seasons. There's an awful lot of attention given to them, but what is the ultimate impact on portfolios, if any, in your viewpoint?
2024 Global Market Outlook - Q2 update: Pent-up exuberance
by Andrew Pease, Russell Investments Executive summary: We think it's more likely than not that the U.S. avoids a recession in 2024, but economic uncertainty remains high with the economy running at full capacity, household savings diminishing, the labor market slowing down, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve still inverted. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada could begin cutting rates by June.
Pent-Up Exuberance
Sign me up to receive email newsletters from VettaFi Advisor Perspectives Asset class views Equities: Neutral The equity market outlook appears constrained by expensive valuation multiples, optimistic industry-consensus earnings growth expectations, and overbought sentiment. Our portfolio strategies are neutral across major equity regions.
2024 Global Market Outlook: The Twilight Zone
Europe has been hard hit by the global manufacturing downturn and demand weakness from China. Although eurozone equities have been strong performers in 2023, they’ll likely battle tight monetary policy and recession risks in 2024. We believe the UK has the most challenging outlook of the major economies—and the greatest risk of recession in 2024. With inflation declining more slowly than elsewhere, the Bank of England will likely be slower to start easing than other central banks.
2023 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Falling with Style
Executive summary: We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia. Equities may remain supported by soft-landing expectations for the next few months, while government bonds continue to look attractive as most central banks near the end of their tightening cycles.
2023 Global Market Outlook - Q3 Update: Slowly Slowing
Executive summary: We believe that the creeping economic slowdown in the United States will probably persist for a few more months, with a recession possible over the next 12-18 months. The onset of the recession may be delayed until 2024. In our view, equities have limited upside with recession risks on the horizon. We see U.S., UK, and German bonds as offering reasonable value. We think eurozone inflation is likely to decline amid falling energy prices.
Full credit
As founding partner and managing director of Tanarra Credit Partners (TCP), Graham Lees has spent the last 20 years working in a world where the tide of capital has flowed mostly in one direction: into markets. However, a new era of higher inflation, rates and volatility has roiled public markets, creating opportunities across private markets, particularly private debt. I think we all learn the most through mistakes, as opposed to when things are travelling well.
Walking the walk
Victorian Funds Management Corporation (VFMC) chief executive Kate Galvin takes pride in VFMC's promotion of gender equity and diversity, and for setting a bold vision to be one of Australia's first gender balanced fund managers. "We've made significant progress towards our goal of achieving gender balance and promoting equity, inclusion, and diversity within our organisation.
A force of change
Growing up in Canberra in the 1970s was "a perfectly good way to spend a childhood", according to Profile Financial Services chief executive Lena Ridley, reflecting on the vast amount of space afforded to families in the nation's capital and memories of running barefoot between neighbours' backyards. "I was that generation of children whose parents moved to Canberra, and all settled into various university, emergency or public service jobs," Ridley explains. ...
2023 global market outlook: from darkness to dawn
Written By: Andrew Pease Global Head of Investment Strategy Russell Investments Andrew Pease from Russell Investments surveys the economic outlook in major global markets, and looks at the likely effect on asset classes We believe declining inflation should allow central banks to eventually pivot to an easing bias. A recession seems likely in 2023, and equity markets may struggle. However, we think that a global economic recovery should be on the horizon by the end of 2023.
Q4 Update: Powell Pivot Postponed
Central banks haven't finished tightening and the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains inverted. We believe that slowing core inflation should allow the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to go on hold in early 2023, and that oversold equity-market sentiment means a lot of bad news is already priced in. Key market themes Markets had stabilized somewhat over the past three months, but it remains an annus horribilis for investors, with equities and government bonds posting negative returns so far this year.
Q3 2022 Global Market Outlook
It’s been a tough first half of the year, with the MSCI All Country World Index down by 21.7% and the Bloomberg Global Treasury benchmark losing about 9% as of June 17. Markets have faced a laundry list of concerns. These include new COVID-19 lockdowns and an economic slowdown in China, the Russia/Ukraine war, surging inflation and central-bank tightening. These issues are at least well understood now by markets.
Russell Investments' 2022 Global Market Outlook - Q3 update: Fear of the known
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. We think equity markets are oversold, and believe US core inflation has likely peaked. In our view, this should help markets stabilise and possibly recover over the second half of 2022. Key market themes Markets have faced a laundry list of concerns this year, including new COVID-19 lockdowns and an economic slowdown in China, the Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation and central-bank tightening.
2022 Global Market Outlook - Q3 update: Fear of the known
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. We think equity markets are oversold, and believe U.S. core inflation has likely peaked. In our view, this should help markets stabilize and possibly recover over the second half of 2022. Key market themes Markets have faced a laundry list of concerns this year, including new COVID-19 lockdowns and an economic slowdown in China, the Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation and central-bank tightening.
Russell Investments’ 2022 Global Market Outlook - Q2 update: Dented, not derailed
The Russia-Ukraine war adds to near-term growth risks for the global economy and will likely keep inflation elevated for longer. While uncertainty is high, equity markets are oversold and should recover if tensions ease in the coming months says Russell Investments’ global head of investment strategy Andrew Pease. Key market themes Russia's invasion of Ukraine creates near-term risks for markets, but also casts a shadow over the longer-term outlook.
2022 Global Market Outlook - Q2 Update: Dented, Not Derailed
The Russia-Ukraine war adds to near-term growth risks for the global economy and will likely keep inflation elevated for longer. While uncertainty is high, we believe equity markets are oversold and should recover if tensions ease in the coming months. Key market themes Russia's invasion of Ukraine creates near-term risks for markets, but also casts a shadow over the longer-term outlook. The immediate threat comes from high energy prices, rising food prices and disrupted supply chains.
Cycle Uncertainty: How Is the Russian Invasion Impacting the Economic Cycle?
Key takeaways The Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 has created significant uncertainty for the cycle outlook Cycle downgrades from energy price spikes, with the impact larger in Europe than the U.S. Supply chain issues could keep inflation elevated Tail event risks (nuclear, wider war) are small but high impact Fed is expected to be cautious as events unfold, but should still tighten 3-4 times this year Uncertainty places a high bar on sentiment to generate a risk-on call.
Russia Invades Ukraine. What Does This Mean For Investors?
What many feared may happen came true overnight with Russia invading Ukraine from all sides—Crimea, Belarus and Russia. Events have moved quickly since our update on February 22. It’s unclear whether this is the shock and awe phase of a limited incursion or the beginning of a full-scale invasion that seeks regime change in Kyiv. The invasion represents a humanitarian tragedy with terrible consequences for millions of people. Investment markets are now reacting to the uncertainty created by events.
Extract and analyze Cobalt Strike beacon payloads with Elastic
Elastic Security engineers have documented a less tedious way to find network beaconing from Cobalt Strike. In their full analysis ([1] [2]), Elastic Security team researchers Andrew Pease, Derek Ditch, and Daniel Stepanic walk users through the Elastic fleet policy, how to collect the beacon, beacon configuration, how to analyze its activity, and how you can set it up in your organization’s environment.
Russell Investments’ 2021 Global Market Outlook-Q4 update: Growing pains
The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over United States. stocks. Key market themes The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence.
Russell Investments’ 2021 Global Market Outlook-Q3 update: The song remains the same
The global economic reopening remains on track as Covid-19 vaccination rates climb. While rising inflation has become a concern, the spike in prices looks transitory so far. Ultimately, we still like the pandemic recovery trade that favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.
2021 Global Market Outlook - Q2 update: The second coming
Vaccines and US stimulus have the global economy on track for a strong rebound in the second half of the year. We expect the reopening trade to favour equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks. Key market themes After last year’s false start, the prospects for a sustained reopening of economies through the second half of 2021 are promising.
Russell Investments on the UK Budget 2021: The Rishi rebound
The UK Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, announced his 2021 UK Budget with two significant goals: 1. Provide support for households and businesses through the final stage of the coronavirus pandemic. 2. Provide a roadmap for how the government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit over time and pay for pandemic support measures.
Russell Investments' 2021 Global Market Outlook: The old normal
We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold. With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive.
Andrew Pease
Andrew Pease is the global head of investment strategy for Russell Investments. He is responsible for the cycle, value and sentiment asset allocation framework that guides the tactical positioning of Russell Investments actively managed funds. Andrew oversees Russell Investments global team of investment strategists in Seattle, London, New York and Sydney. He is based in London and joined Russell in early 2006.
2020 Global Market Outlook: Cycle, Interrupted
By Andrew Pease Signs point to a mini-cycle recovery in 2020, with central bank easing in particular helping to stave off short-term recession fears. Hold the epitaphs: this aging cycle seems likely to last beyond 2020. This time last year, it appeared that U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, the China-U.S. trade war and diminishing economic slack1 could push the U.S. dangerously close to recession by the end of 2019.
Suffolk women’s soccer player battles back from injury
Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Send email to this address Enter Your Name Add a comment here Verification “I didn’t know what was going on,” said Jill Kohm in an interview with The Suffolk Journal.
Suffolk women’s volleyball serves up comeback season
Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Send email to this address Enter Your Name Add a comment here Verification The Suffolk women’s volleyball team said their goodbyes to seven seniors last season. This year they welcomed nine new players, including five freshmen, two walk-ons and two transfers. At this time last year, the team had a 5-12 record.
Addisyn Lanza, #9
Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Junior midfielder Addisyn Lanza is never satisfied in her appetite for self-improvement, adding the goal of improved scoring to her plate this season. “I want to score more. I’ve been told since the age of five that I need to shoot more,” said Lanza in an interview with The Suffolk Journal. “Now I think is the time that I need to step up. I’m trying to use my position and put it in the back of the net.” Lanza is on pace to smash her own personal records.
Emerson Wildes, #18
Being a multi-sport athlete is what sophomore goalie Allie Rodrigues signed up for when she came to Suffolk. Originally recruited by Coach Will Feld... Junior midfielder Addisyn Lanza is never satisfied in her appetite for self-improvement, adding the goal of improved scoring to her plate this seaso... Wednesday night the Lady Rams travelled to Mass. Maritime Academy for their third game of the season, and spent the bus ride back to Boston celebratin...
Allison Rodrigues, #1
Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Being a multi-sport athlete is what sophomore goalie Allie Rodrigues signed up for when she came to Suffolk. Originally recruited by Coach Will Feldman of Suffolk’s track teams, Rodrigues emailed the Women’s Soccer coach to inquire about being on the team. “It was an easy decision for me to reach out to continue to play a sport that I love,” said Rodrigues in an interview with The Suffolk Journal.
Women’s soccer blows past competition
Wednesday night the Lady Rams travelled to Mass. Maritime Academy for their third game of the season, and spent the bus ride back to Boston celebrating their ten point shutout of the Buccaneers. Coming off their wrenching 1-0 loss to Fitchburg State College in double overtime just four nights prior, the Rams spent their practices improving on attacking and offensive execution.
The Suffolk Journal
Send email to this address Enter Your Name Add a comment here Verification In the Lady Ram’s first meeting against Fitchburg State, the team came up short in double overtime, losing their home opener 2-1, last Saturday afternoon. After the game, Suffolk Head Coach Ashley Van Vechten stressed keeping confidence going forward. “To the team,” said Van Vechten in an interview with The Suffolk Journal, “stay hungry and keep your head up.
Baseball slides past all of GNAC competition
Filed under Baseball, Sports, Suffolk Rams Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Send email to this address Enter Your Name Add a comment here Verification More than halfway through the season, the Suffolk’s baseball team has continued to have a successful run, accumulating 17 wins and a perfect 10-0 conference record.
Rams go 12 innings with MIT
Filed under Baseball, Suffolk Rams Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics In the Rams first game back from their Florida road trip, the team traveled across the red line to MIT, where after 12 innings both teams left the field with a three all tie. The Rams got off to a hot start in the top of the first inning with a little help from the Engineers as two errors left one on base with two out.
Lady Rams basketball becomes only team to extend season
Filed under Basketball, Sports The Suffolk Lady Rams defeated Anna Maria College 68-58 on Tuesday in the Great Northeastern Athletic Conference (GNAC) Quarterfinal. This marks the Lady Rams’ 24th tournament appearance, and their eleventh semifinal appearance. Suffolk leaned heavily on its starting lineup, as the starters combined to score 65 of the team’s 68 points.It was a game filled with team runs, as Suffolk finished the 1st quarter on a 9-0 run to establish an 18-8 lead.
DUFFY SHOOTS FOR 1,000
Filed under Basketball, Sports During the second half of the Rams Great Northeast Athletic Conference quarterfinal game, guard Thomas Duffy stepped forward to the free throw line. With Saint Joseph (Conn.), lead cut to just eight, Duffy had a chance to further trim St. Joe’s lead and bring Suffolk to victory. This free throw while it seemed simple was worth more than just one point to Duffy. As he ritualistically prepared to shoot from the charity stripe, he let out a big sigh.
Lady Rams push towards playoffs
Filed under Basketball, Sports, Suffolk Rams Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Courtesy of Suffolk Athletics Send email to this address Enter Your Name Add a comment here Verification The Suffolk women’s basketball team is well on their way to a high playoff seed this year. After losing their first game of the season, the Lady Rams have gone 17-4 since, as well as having an 8-1 conference record.
RETAIL REPORT: 2019 Global Market Outlook: The Late-Late Cycle Show
U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy’s budget standoff with the European Commission and Brexit imply that 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. We believe that 2020 marks the danger zone for a U.S. recession, which gives equity markets some upside in the year ahead. However, late-cycle risks are rising—and monitoring these risks will be critical to avoid buying a dip that turns into a prolonged slide.
Men’s basketball prepares to heat up in Florida
While many Suffolk students head home for winter break, the Suffolk men’s basketball team will take their talents down to Naples, Florida on Dec. 27 for a pair of regular season games. Bringing 17 players and a few coaches from the heart of Boston down to Florida may have been easy to sell to the team, but it proved to be a difficult task and required lots of fundraising. The team worked games at Foxborough over the summer, looking for donations from people.
Women’s basketball opens season
After a crushing defeat at the hands of Saint Joseph’s College, the Suffolk women’s basketball team came into their season opener against Western New England (WNE) looking to bounce back. Suffolk entered the season ranked third in the Greater Northeast Athletic Conference (GNAC) coaches poll. The team ended last season with a overall record of 21-7 and finished third in the GNAC.
Men’s basketball dribbles towards redemption
Hang on for a minute...we're trying to find some more stories you might like. Close Email This Story Send email to this address Enter Your Name Add a comment here Verification Send Email Cancel Junior Thomas Duffy sat in the Suffolk Ridgeway Building, where he has spent the last three years of his life improving every aspect and angle of his game. Now just a handful of days away from starting his junior season, Duffy’s mind lingers on the teams crushing postseason defeat just nine months prior.
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