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Articles by Anthony Willis
In Credit Weekly Snapshot – Roller coaster
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Bond markets rallied this week on election-driven risk-off sentiment, though US Treasuries partially reversed the move on Friday. Across core markets, the long end underperformed the belly, as flight-to-quality flows concentrated in short-to-intermediate maturities.
The Office Christmas Party: Managing Risk, Preventing Harassment and Protecting Your Business
With party season just around the corner, many employers are busy planning Christmas parties, festive lunches and end-of-year celebrations. These events provide an excellent opportunity to thank employees for their hard work, boost morale and strengthen workplace relationships. However, whilst the atmosphere may be more relaxed, an employer’s legal obligations remain firmly in place.
Market Perspectives: Making sense of the midterms
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). The Democrats will control both the House and the Senate from January 2027, but President Trump’s veto limits their ability to pass legislation, particularly on AI regulation.
In Credit Weekly Snapshot – Tech it to the limit
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). We saw a steepening of the yield curve in core markets of the US, Germany and the UK last week. To illustrate this, the US two-year yield fell by around 9bps while the US 30-year yield fell by around 1bps.
Market Perspectives: UK Budget 2026: The consequences
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). The UK Budget was a non-event for markets, with the major fiscal decisions deferred to next year’s Spending Review. Growth remains the central challenge, with the OBR forecasting GDP growth of 1.2% this year and just 1.0% next year.
Market Perspectives: The sum of all fears
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). French fiscal uncertainty, scrutiny of AI investment and rising oil prices are combining to drive renewed market volatility. France’s political stalemate is complicating deficit reduction, with little prospect of an immediate resolution.
Asset Allocation update – Q4 2026
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Prospects for resolving the conflict in the Middle East continue to ebb and flow. Although reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran have eased, there appears to be little momentum for an agreement before the US midterm elections in early November.
In Credit Weekly Snapshot – The real thing
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). The French sovereign debt crisis dominated bond markets, although French yields eventually retreated from their weekly highs amid short covering. The UK was the worst-performing core market, with 10-year yields rising by around 8bps (see Chart of the Week).
Market Perspectives: Why is oil stuck at $100/barrel?
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to an estimated 85–90% of pre-conflict volumes, but prices remain elevated. Supply-chain disruption, inventory rebuilding and renewed attacks on shipping continue to prevent a decisive normalisation in the oil market.
AI data centres: Powering through the constraints
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Investors often view power availability as the defining constraint on AI data-centre development. Our proprietary bottom-up analysis presents a more nuanced picture. By modelling additions to US power supply by technology and timeline through 2030, we find that generation capacity at the system level could support significant data-centre growth.
Artificial intelligence: implications for the economy and equity and fixed income markets
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved from a narrow technology theme to a broad investment, productivity and financing cycle. The market is transitioning from its first phase, which rewarded scarcity in compute, chips and cloud, to a more demanding phase focused on monetisation, return on capital and balancesheet discipline.
Market Perspectives: Déjà vu – another bond sequel
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Rising sovereign yields reflect a broader repricing of fiscal, inflation and political risk, with France providing the latest catalyst. Bond-market tightening may reduce the need for aggressive central bank action, although further rate increases remain possible in the eurozone and Japan.
Market Perspectives: What’s in store for Q4?
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). US midterm elections could constrain the administration’s policy agenda and reshape the fiscal outlook. High government borrowing and persistent inflation risks may keep US bond yields elevated. Limited fiscal headroom and political fragmentation are likely to keep the UK and France under close investor scrutiny.
Data with destiny: Information services show structural resilience in the age of AI
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Generative and agentic artificial intelligence (AI) has been treated as an existential threat to established information services (IS) companies. We believe that risk is over-discounted.
Market Perspectives: The roadmap for central banks
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Central bank policy remains highly data dependent, with inflation and commodity prices continuing to shape the outlook for interest rates. Markets are pricing in further tightening from major central banks over the coming months and into next year.
Hyperscaler debt issuance: A technical opportunity in investment grade credit
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). The artificial intelligence (AI) buildout is reshaping the investment grade (IG) corporate bond market in real time. Technology companies racing to build AI infrastructure – dubbed “hyperscalers” for the unprecedented pace of their capital spending – are flooding the market with new debt.
Market Perspectives: Why does the Fed have to hike rates?
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Markets are increasingly pricing in another Federal Reserve rate rise as inflation proves more persistent than hoped. Higher commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainty are adding to concerns that inflation may remain sticky. Expectations of rates staying higher for longer are contributing to renewed bond-market volatility.
In Credit Weekly Snapshot – China in your hand
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Last week brought a yield curve flattening trend across core fixed income markets. The yield on the US two-year rose by 2.4bps, while the US 30-year was essentially unchanged, up 0.2bps.
Multi-Asset Investment Outlook 2027: Technological tailwind,geopolitical headwind
ALLEEN VOOR PROFESSIONELE BELEGGERS (niet te gebruiken voor of te overhandigen aan derden en Retail beleggers). Voor marketingdoeleinden. The global economy has proved more resilient than many expected, but the investment landscape of 2027 looks materially different from a year ago – shaped by conflict in the Middle East, a reversal in interest rate expectations, and an AI-driven capital expenditure (capex) boom of unprecedented scale.
Market Perspectives: Second guessing the central banks
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). Central banks are entering a busy period of policy meetings, with markets pricing in a high probability of rate rises for several major economies. The Bank of England appears to be the exception, with markets expecting a more cautious path for UK monetary policy.
Is Generative AI Overhyped?
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) in particular, have captured the imagination of the world with an ability to create new content, including text, images, videos, and code as well as interpretations of existing data and content.
Synthesis and properties of the ivyanes: the parent 1,1-oligocyclopropanes
Synthesis and properties of the ivyanes: the parent 1,1-oligocyclopropanes† You have access to this article Please wait while we load your content... Something went wrong. Try again?
The effect of isomerism and other structural variations on the G-quadruplex DNA-binding properties of some nickel Schiff base complexes
The effect of isomerism and other structural variations on the G-quadruplex DNA-binding properties of some nickel Schiff base complexes A series of novel isomeric nickel Schiff base complexes, as well as nickel complexes of related ligands having asymmetric structures have been prepared and characterised using microanalysis, 1H and 13C NMR spectroscopy and ESI-MS. The Schiff base ligands were prepared by condensation reactions involving ethylenediamine and different derivatives of benzophenone.
A year of a stronger economic backdrop, but weaker markets?
Despite a huge number of political distractions and a deteriorating economic backdrop, we can look back on 2019 as a year when almost all financial assets enjoyed a strong period of returns. With improving optimism over the economic outlook, certainly for the first half of 2020, a better dialogue on the US-China trade war and some stability in UK politics, the backdrop for risk assets is substantially more benign than it has been for some time.
BMO: What’s in the economic crystal ball? - Money Marketing
Economic predictions for the coming year The crystal ball for the next few months appears particularly foggy. There are questions over how long the current economic cycle can last, along with no shortage of questions over politics and the path of interest rates. Currently, there are reasons to paint a pretty bleak picture – economic growth is slowing, while there is increasing uncertainty over how far central banks will go in tightening policy.
Investment insight: After the US midterms - Money Marketing
Political noise from Washington is likely to increase in volume A recent visit to the US to meet fund managers, strategists and analysts left us reassured that, for now, the US economy is in decent shape. But we were not convinced market momentum would be sustained. The S&P reached a record high during our visit, but recent weeks have proved to be considerably more volatile, despite an earnings season that was generally positive.
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