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Articles by Anton Eser
ANTON ESER: Time to rethink portfolios as lost decade on the cards for US equities
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers. With the American market a roaring inferno, history warns us that all good things eventually end. Picture: REUTERS The first rule in investing is, don’t bet against US markets. For as long as I’ve been in this industry, US equities have been the gold standard of global investing.
ANTON ESER: From the S&P to JSE - how SA can cope with US rate cuts
BOTTOM LINE Market participants worldwide are wondering what the US interest rate cut means for their portfolios. With history as our guide, we know rate cuts typically signal a shift in economic conditions, but predicting market behaviour is never straightforward. It is, nonetheless, worth exploring the potential effect of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, drawing on historical trends, economic conditions and the broader implications for SA investors. ..
ANTON ESER: Are bonds high yield or high risk?
Earlier this month, SA 30-year bond yields spiked briefly above 13%. While they have now come back slightly, these are still levels not seen in 20 years. Local inflation-linked bonds are also offering multidecade high real yields of more than 5%. Yields in many other markets are looking similarly attractive. At about 4.3%, 10-year US treasuries are trading at levels last seen before the global financial crisis.
ANTON ESER: Time to rethink how we weight US stocks in global portfolios
Over the past three decades US equities have offered investors fantastic returns. In that time they’ve provided real returns of 7.9% annually. And if you’d invested R100 in the S&P 500 in 2012, you would have come out with almost twice as much money than if you’d invested that same R100 in the JSE all share index. These performance levels have naturally affected the approach of SA investors. Coupled with an underperforming JSE, it means more and more local money has been put into US equities.
SA asset managers face their ‘Blockbuster moment’
Even in SA, where we’ve had mixed fortunes in terms of economic growth, the asset management industry has continued to churn out decent profits on the back of chunky margins and great asset returns. The future, however, looks very different. It’s hard to see the past repeating itself in terms of investment returns. All while assets and profit margins are coming under pressure from an ageing society drawing down savings and competitive forces driving down fees.
All signals point to even stormier markets ahead
The reality of the economic challenges facing ordinary South Africans is visible all around us, yet we read that the financial markets are booming and those of us with pension savings see their value growing by the month. This disconnect brings to mind the idea of seasickness, where the inner ear detects motion and the eyes register stability since the cabin moves with the body.
Investors must play a bigger part in the world’s energy transition
Financing the energy transition has been described as a problem of dual challenges for global capital markets.
US midterms: three scenarios for investors
As was the case with the 2016 Brexit vote, the 2016 US Presidential election and the 2017 UK general election, predicting the outcome of the upcoming US midterms has become something of a pastime for investment and political commentators. Yet as these examples so clearly demonstrate, political events are, by their very nature, political, and therefore very difficult to predict. We believe there’s more value in preparing for a range of eventualities.
[$$] Oil must face its future as a declining industry
The energy transition is going to be expensive. The International Energy Agency estimates that by 2050 the global energy system will require an additional $29tn of capital to be invested — over and above the growth capital required to meet the growing demand for energy globally. Much of that investment will have to come from capital markets.
Investors must face history’s third energy transition
The global energy system is on the cusp of a revolution and investors in the sector risk sleepwalking into a period of momentous change.
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