Syria, Middle East politics, and Mediterranean security at @FOIresearch. Fellow at @UIsweden and occasional freelance writer.
Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Aron Lund
Syria for Beginners: Five Sources to Follow
Israel’s bombing of Syria last week, in an apparent attempt to intervene in brewing communal bloodshed in the country’s south, drove home a point that Syria watchers and Syrians themselves already understood too well: Bashar al-Assad may be gone, but the conflict, now in its fourteenth year, is far from over. Although most of the country is now under new Islamist leadership, a large part of Syria remains under the control of a rival Kurdish faction.
Trump's Cuts to U.S. Foreign Aid Undermine Syria Sanctions Relief
Argument An expert’s point of view on a current event. Middle East and North Africa In the thorny debate over how to handle Syria, U.S. President Donald Trump has surprisingly emerged as a realist, a pragmatist, and a man of nuance. Since the December 2024 toppling of Syria’s Russian-backed dictator, Bashar al-Assad, the war-torn country is under radical Islamist leadership.
The Montreux Paradox: How a Ukraine Ceasefire Could Set the Stage for Escalation in the Black Sea
Since spring 2022, Russia has been prevented from reinforcing its navy in the Black Sea by a near-antique international convention and some very contemporary Turkish politics. A ceasefire could change that. After more than three years of war in Ukraine, the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States has changed the game.
Cross-Border Shuffle: Refugee Movement Between Lebanon and Syria after Assad
The demography of both Lebanon and Syria is in flux, after the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Thousands of people are now on the move, inside the two countries and across their shared border—in both directions. Since Syrian rebels toppled the Assad government on December 8, hundreds of thousands of people have crossed the Syrian–Lebanese border—both Syrian refugees in Lebanon returning home, and Syrians and Lebanese escaping the new Syria.
Down but Not Out: Reassessing the Axis of Resistance
The events of the last year have upended many assumptions about the Axis of Resistance, the loosely defined network of Iran and its core partners. For as long as the Islamic Republic of Iran has sought to export revolution and project power in the Arab Middle East, surprisingly persistent debates have raged over core questions. Did Iran tightly command a network of proxies and dependents—or did it stand at the center of a loose network of like-minded groups and opportunistic fellow travelers?
In Brief: How Öcalan’s Call to Disarm the PKK Will Affect the Middle East
In February, Abdullah Öcalan — the long-imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) — called on the group to lay down its arms and “dissolve itself” after more than 40 years of fighting Turkish forces. In an initial step, the PKK called for a ceasefire on March 1. In addition to significant implications for politics and security in Turkey, the development affects Kurds in Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
Damascus Dispatch: Fear and Hope in a Divided Syria
The new masters of Sayida Zaynab, a famous Shia shrine in the countryside outside Damascus, strode with confidence across the nearly empty marble courtyard, ignoring audible grumbles from the few remaining pilgrims and staffers. Abu Omar, the shrine’s new head of security, wears his beard long and ragged, in a style often associated with purist Sunnis.
Iraq Walks a Tightrope into the New Trump Era
Donald Trump’s second presidency promises another four-year tightrope walk for Iraq. More than two decades after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq remains deeply linked, if not dependent, on American security institutions, markets, and banks. Yet it also has strong historical, cultural, economic, and security ties—not to mention a 1,000-mile border—with Iran, which Trump is again poised to treat as an enemy.
Trump and Erdogan: Corrupt Friends or Civilizational Foes?
American relations with Turkey have always contained contradictions. As Donald Trump embarks on another four years of foreign policy transactionalism, it’s hard to know what U.S.–Turkey trend will win out: a deepening authoritarian embrace with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or increasing enmity grounded in opposing regional goals and cultural prejudice. Either way, the results will almost certainly be bad. But even in this grim moment, there are small opportunities.
Economists Agree: Trump Is Wrong on Tariffs
As President Trump threatens to slap steep tariffs on many countries, he is boasting that his taxes on imports will be a boon to the U.S. economy, but most economists strongly disagree—many say Trump’s tariffs will increase inflation, slow economic growth, hurt U.S. workers and result in American consumers footing the bill for his tariffs.
Two States, Together: An Alternative Vision for Palestinians and Israelis
After Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s maximalist response, it is clearer than ever that in conflict and geopolitics, the unimaginable can rapidly become reality, in the Middle East and all over the world. No violent conflict can again be considered “manageable.” But transformation isn’t always for the worse. In Syria, the entrenched dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad spectacularly collapsed in December, opening up paths toward better governance and a rebalanced regional order.
The Progressive Foreign Policy Agenda Is in Shambles. It’s Time to Confront the Crisis.
The progressive foreign policy agenda is in a dark place. Trump has successfully challenged the international system from the right and frustrated the progressive formulations against endless war. He has changed global dynamics and America’s domestic politics for the worse in ways that will echo long after his second term ends. If nothing else, this troubling moment offers an opportunity for clarity. Progressives have two main challenges to face.
Washington Can’t Make Israel’s War in Gaza Moral. Instead, It Needs to End the War.
This commentary is part of a Century International series exploring a shared future for Palestine and Israel that guarantees the fundamental rights of both communities. The Gaza war has exposed the bankruptcy of the existing policy frameworks. Our “Shared Future” series intends to spur conversation and promote new, better options for security, rights, and governance—for Palestinians and Israelis. Israel’s war in Gaza has flummoxed U.S. policy elites.
How will Iran respond to Israel’s attack on its Damascus consulate?
Iran has vowed retaliation for an Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus last Monday. The strike was part of a pattern of escalated Israeli attacks in Syria since the eruption of the Gaza war last October. These attacks have often targeted warehouses, trucks, and airports, and Israel’s declared aim for them is degrading Iran’s transnational supply network for the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Roundtable: Gaza in Crisis
The scope and scale of destruction in Gaza beggars the imagination, even in a conflict that has witnessed many punishing cycles. The war in Gaza has entered its fifth month, sparing none of Gaza’s 2.3 million inhabitants. Indiscriminate bombing has made the entire Gaza Strip unsafe, with families displaced multiple times and unable to find a safe haven.
Social Media “War on Terror” Unfairly Censors Palestinians and Arabic Speakers
Molly Crabapple, a U.S.-based author and artist, reportedly woke up one day in October to find that her Instagram account had been severely restricted. “Your account can’t be shown to non-followers,” read a message when she opened the app. Instagram provided no more of an explanation for the restriction, which was mystifying. She guessed it might have been triggered when she reposted a story by Democracy Now! on the state-sanctioned militarization of Israel’s settlers in the West Bank.
What the war in Gaza means for Syria
Republish this article After 12 years of war, Syria is a fractured country where humanitarian needs are still growing. The ongoing violence in Gaza is likely to make things even worse. While armed conflict has declined across Syria in the past years, the war is not over. October saw renewed airstrikes and shelling in the rebel-held northwest, while the economy continues to sink to new lows.
It’s Time for a Ceasefire in Gaza-and Then a New Push for Peace
A growing number of people in the United States and around the world are calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, including an expanding bloc in the U.S. Congress. Although too many lives have already been lost, President Biden can still do the right thing—which happens to be good politics, not just good policy—and call on Israel to stop its indiscriminate assault on Gaza.
An Oil-Pumping Monarchy Is Hosting COP28. Activists Should Seize the Opportunity.
Dubai may seem a strange place to host the Twenty-Eighth United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), which convenes at the end of the month. The United Arab Emirates has the world’s fourth-highest per capita CO2 emissions. Its economy is heavily dependent on petrochemicals. Freedom House ranks the Emirates as “not free”; democracy is all but nonexistent.
Northwest Syria aid likely to survive Russian threats, for now
Republish this article STOCKHOLM For years, the UN Security Council has been the scene of recurring battles over humanitarian aid to rebel-held regions of Syria – and it’s time for another round. In 2014, in response to systematic sabotage by President Bashar al-Assad’s government, the Security Council gave the UN’s aid agencies a special mandate to help people in rebel-controlled border areas by working through neighbouring states.
No Government Controls Yemen’s Armed Groups. Policymakers Can Still Push Them to Respect Rights.
Arbitrary detentions, forced disappearances, torture, land grabbing, extortion, rape: these are just a few of the crimes that Yemeni civilians have suffered during nearly a decade of grinding civil war. Often, the perpetrators of these abuses are members of nonstate armed groups that have proliferated on all sides of the conflict. These groups operate beyond the reach of Yemeni law—the justice system in much of the country is in shambles, anyway. And they often have no clear command structure.
Lebanon’s Grid Has Collapsed. What Comes Next?
At night, central Beirut is shrouded in darkness, with a few pinpricks of light emanating from apartment windows amidst the constant hum of diesel generators. Lebanon’s power sector is disintegrating. Some hope to revive the existing system, built around a centralized and fossil-fueled grid run by the parastatal Electricité du Liban (EDL), with natural gas imported from Egypt or the Mediterranean. Others see an opportunity to leapfrog over fossil fuels to a decentralized renewable grid.
A Humane Choice: Sanctions Relief for Syria’s Earthquake
A Biden administration decision to relax U.S. sanctions on Syria after the devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria last month has drawn fierce criticism from some in Washington. Those critics are wrong, though, when they claim this license was unnecessary, or that it somehow helps enrich or normalize the government of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Providing some limited sanctions relief to expedite aid to disaster-stricken Syrians was the right thing to do.
Order from Ashes Podcast: Broken Bonds: Existential Crises
The Muslim Brotherhood tries to project an image of grassroots power and disciplined leadership. A trio of researchers takes a different view, describing a once-formidable organization that is under strain and out of touch. The Brotherhood, they argue, is experiencing multiple crises—of identity, legitimacy, and membership—which accelerated after Egypt’s military coup in July 2013.
Following earthquake, Saudi Arabia is linchpin to Assad's normalization Original
February 22, 2023 The devastating earthquake that tore through Syria and Turkey two weeks ago has left cities in ruin and tens of thousands dead. But as humanitarian assistance began to pour in, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad found himself at the center of attention. After years in the political wilderness, Assad is now taking a steady stream of calls and visitors, and on Feb. 20, he went on a red carpet visit to Oman.
Q&A: Netanyahu’s Total War on Israel’s Judiciary
Following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power, his new far-right ruling coalition has launched an all-out attack on the Israeli judiciary. Israel’s courts, which act as the only check on executive and parliamentary power and are arguably the last bastion of democratic rights for Israeli citizens, stand to lose their independence and their power to review legislation.
Syria earthquake: Why sending aid is complicated
Officials and humanitarian workers told MEE on Tuesday that delays were in part a result of officers and guards at the crossing having been personally impacted by the earthquake.Humanitarian aid workers in Turkey told MEE that customs officials who run the Cilvegozu border gate leading to the opposition-held Idlib province through Bab al-Hawa were among those killed or trapped under the rubble in Hatay province.UNHCR also told MEE that Gaziantep, the epicentre of the earthquake in Turkey, was...
The Systems That Drive Corruption and Terrorism
The Century Foundation takes your data security and privacy seriously. That's why we want you to know that, when you visit our website, we use technologies like cookies to collect anonymized data so that we can better understand and serve our audience. For more information, see our full Privacy Policy. The Systems That Drive Corruption and Terrorism This is the web version of the newsletter sent to Century International subscribers in January 2023.
Cholera in the Time of Assad: How Syria’s Water Crisis Caused an Avoidable Outbreak
After more than a decade of brutal war, Syria is mired in poverty and disease. A nation that once boasted a middle-income economy and a relatively well-developed infrastructure can no longer feed its population, supply it with clean water, or keep preventable disease in check. The Syrian conflict has been stagnant for years, reduced to skirmishing along largely frozen front lines. But there is no respite for Syrians.
Young Revolutionary Parties Are Still Iraq’s Best Hope for Democracy
In the first issue of the revolutionary Iraqi newspaper Tuk Tuk, published in November 2019, journalist and long-time activist Ahmed Abd al-Hussein argued that, since 2003, the Iraqi people had been expected to endure all manner of indignities in support of a corrupt bargain. Poverty, the collapse of essential services, violent coercion, foreign interference—everything had to be tolerated simply to prop up the political system.
Iraqi Shia Factions Are Supposedly “Anti-state.” But State Power Is What They Want.
Shia Islamist parties have dominated politics in Iraq since the first post-Saddam Hussein elections in 2005. The political narrative for much of this period has revolved around two often misleading debates: about the role of Shia Islamism in politics, and whether Iraq’s leading movements are loyal to the Iraqi state or are subordinate to foreign interests. This narrative has continued to shape even more recent developments.
Shia Clerics in Iraq Haven’t Lost Their Authority
What You Should Know In recent years, many journalists and scholars have claimed that the influence of the Shia religious establishment in Iraq is waning. They point, in particular, to Tishreen movement activists’ rejection of religion in politics. But the trajectory of Shia clerical influence in Iraq is more complicated, and the weight of clerics and the seminaries that train them (the hawza) has oscillated over the last two decades.
The Mysterious Pipeline for ISIS Recruits from Northern Lebanon
Late last year, the young men of Tripoli, Lebanon began to disappear. Alarm mounted in the Lebanese city and its surroundings as dozens of locals vanished. They had been recruited, it was rumored, by the so-called Islamic State (or ISIS) to fight in Iraq. Then, in December, these young men began to die—a few deaths at a time, on Iraq’s remote, rural battlefields. Their bereft families had little solid information, let alone official communication, about exactly what happened.
Why the United States Should Pay the Lebanese Army’s Salaries-Before It’s Too Late
The Century Foundation takes your data security and privacy seriously. That's why we want you to know that, when you visit our website, we use technologies like cookies to collect anonymized data so that we can better understand and serve our audience. For more information, see our full Privacy Policy.
Is Russia about to block a key aid route into northwest Syria?
STOCKHOLM The UN Security Council is set to begin debating the renewal of a key mechanism for delivering aid to Syria on Monday. With a deadline looming, Russia holding veto power, and the Ukraine war complicating diplomacy and worsening the plight of Syrian civilians, humanitarians are understandably nervous.
A Warning from Syria: Victory Day Is a Long Way Off in Ukraine
Western analysis of the war in Ukraine has tended to prematurely—perhaps wishfully—declare victory for Ukraine and defeat for Russia. Policymakers have been more circumspect, but triumphalist public statements in Washington and Europe suggest that many have missed the most glaring lessons from Russia’s intervention in Syria: Vladimir Putin operates on an extended time frame, and views war crimes as a strategic cornerstone rather than an obstacle.
Economic Collapse-Not Elections-Will Shape Lebanon’s Future
Lebanon is changing, as its economic crisis transforms the country into something unrecognizable. Maybe paradoxically, though, Lebanon’s first national elections since the beginning of the crisis seem unlikely to make much difference at all. On May 15, Lebanese will vote in the country’s first parliamentary elections since massive anti-government protests rocked the country in October 2019.
How Much Control Do International Sponsors Have Over Militias?
Militias—or “armed groups,” for those who prefer a more neutral term—often depend on foreign support. Without weapons, funding, or political cover from a government, usually a foreign one, armed groups rarely develop the ability to pose an enduring threat. But the relationships between militias and their international patrons can be complicated or misunderstood.
Roundtable: The Age of Armed Groups
What You Should Know Since the end of the Cold War, fragmented battlegrounds and nonstate armed groups have become the most prominent features of violent conflict. Understanding nonstate armed groups has long been important for studying the Middle East. But the January 6 insurrection showed that understanding armed groups is also essential for analyzing the crisis in the United States. Each armed group has its own unique elements.
The Century Foundation Launches Project Examining Interconnected Crises in Middle East & West: “Transnational Trends in Citizenship”
The Century Foundation takes your data security and privacy seriously. That's why we want you to know that, when you visit our website, we use technologies like cookies to collect anonymized data so that we can better understand and serve our audience. For more information, see our full Privacy Policy.
Can a deal in Astana wind down the six-year Syrian war?
Home Middle East and North Africa Aron Lund Freelance journalist and analyst specialising in Syria The destroyed neighbourhood of Khalidiya in the Old City of Homs, Syria (UNHCR/Andrew McConnell) Also available in العربية On Thursday, the envoys of Russia, Turkey, and Iran sat down to sign an agreement about Syria in the Kazakh capital of Astana.
Order from Ashes Podcast: War in Ukraine, Pain in Syria
Order from Ashes Podcast: War in Ukraine, Pain in Syria Sam Heller Fellow Aron Lund Fellow Thanassis Cambanis Senior Fellow and Director of Century International Even while Ukraine is experiencing tremendous suffering and dislocation since the Russian invasion, spillover effects are being felt all over the world. Syria is especially vulnerable, after ten years of war, with Russia as a major player in the Syrian conflict.
Syria’s forgotten siege: The noose tightens around Deir Ezzor
The recent advance of the so-called Islamic State (IS) through Syrian army lines in besieged Deir Ezzor has deepened a humanitarian crisis and created a complex problem for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Russians, and the new US president, Donald Trump. A month after his army retook the rebel stronghold in eastern Aleppo, al-Assad has plenty of reasons for optimism.
Order from Ashes Podcast: Making Lemonade from the Abraham Accords
A year and a half ago, the historic Abraham Accords normalized relations between Israel and four Arab countries—but did little for stability or democracy in the region, much less for Israeli–Palestinian peace. On this episode of Order from Ashes, Century International fellow Dahlia Scheindlin assesses the possibility of salvaging progressive foreign policy goals from the problematic agreements.
How to Salvage Progressive Policies from the Abraham Accords
When the Abraham Accords were first announced in 2020, some heralded them as the dawning of a new era in the Middle East. The architects of the bonanza of normalization with Israel—the administration of Donald Trump, the former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Emirati crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan—declared their great optimism that the agreements could solve regional problems through new business and security alliances.
From Tartous to Tobruk: The Return of Russian Sea Power in the Eastern Mediterranean
Publish date: 2022-02-11 Report number: FOI-R--5239--SE Pages: 120 Written in: English Keywords: Cyprus Egypt EMGF Greece Hmeymim Israel Law of the Sea Lebanon Libya Maritime Security Mediterranean Sea Montreux Convention Naval Forces Navy Palestine Russia Suez Canal Syria Tartous Turkey UNCLOS Abstract The 2015 intervention in Syria marked a new era in Russia's military engagement in the eastern Mediterranean region.
Only Governance and Rights Can Stop the Return of ISIS
Decades into an ill-conceived war on terror, the United States still hasn’t learned to focus on the long-term policy problems that fuel violent groups like the Islamic State (also known as ISIS). Military action will never be enough to contain ISIS and its imitators. The United States needs to take the lead in rebuilding the cities it bombed in the war against the extremist group.
“Early Recovery” Aid Can Provide Vital Relief to Syrians-If Donors Follow Through
When a unanimous UN Security Council vote in July opened the door to “early recovery” assistance in Syria, it wasn’t just a matter of humanitarian aid—it was also political. Great-power horse-trading enabled the council’s endorsement of early recovery. But those politics don’t change the fact that early recovery aid is what makes sense now, to help Syria’s beleaguered people. Supporting it was overdue.
In Syria, Assad Shores Up Control of Symbolically Important South
For much of the Syrian civil war, the southern city of Deraa and the surrounding Houran Plains, an agricultural region near the Jordanian border, were divided between government forces and armed rebels. Fighting raged back and forth, killing thousands. It was not until Russia backed a government offensive in 2018 that the situation changed in earnest. That year, Moscow brokered a series of agreements with rebel factions that brought the area back under loose government control.
Lebanon Is in Free Fall. Opposition Groups Have Radically Different Ideas about How to Save It.
In October 2019, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese took to the streets to demand political change. Many Lebanese felt optimistic that their country might finally free itself from its dysfunctional and corrupt sectarian system. But nearly two years later—years that saw the COVID-19 pandemic, a devastating explosion at the Beirut port, and hyperinflation that has impoverished the Lebanese public—the country has become, in the words of many Lebanese, “hell.” The economy has collapsed.
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Aron
Contact Aron, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack