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Articles by Asif M Shahan
The Worst of All Worlds
Contrary to what regime defenders believe, this government is not safe. People who are encouraging it to become more coercive are doing it a serious disservice. Photo Credit: Open Source We now have a state that is weak in protecting citizens but strong in taking away their rights. If that is the “strong state” the BNP leadership wanted to create -- and is now establishing -- we are doomed. At this moment, we can hear the footsteps of authoritarianism.
One-stop Shops as Intermediaries Between Digital States and Non-digital Populations
As countries digitise public services and tax systems, a significant portion of the population faces exclusion due to limited digital access and skills. Many countries have one-stop shops – or citizen service centres – that act as physical intermediaries to facilitate digital services for excluded populations.
A Note of Caution for BNP
The party's political and economic actions are not converging or complementing each other, and instead the party is letting its economic vision lead the governing process without considering the political consequences. This is a risky bet and may not work. Photo Credit: Shutterstock This is a cautionary observation. It’s only two months and thus, I don’t think that enough time has passed to make any concrete observation. But early warning signs are there that must be taken into account.
The Future of Reform
As a supporter of substantive reform within the political structure of this country, this dim scenario really makes me sad. And it also clarifies one thing: our failure has come from one major shortcoming -- we didn’t reach out to people. I am unapologetically pro-reform. And this support for reform comes from a liberal perspective where the understanding is protection of rights, end of executive dominance and protection of democracy requires checks and balances which currently doesn’t exist.
Democracy Without Teeth
Ensuring accountability is the key, and a state cannot design a system, cannot create an institutional design where the only protection is a party's or an individual’s goodwill. A state’s guiding operational principle cannot be to be ruled by the angels.
July charter and constitutional reform: Will we waste a generational opportunity?
The oppression of citizens under the Sheikh Hasina regime resulted in the July uprising. Through repeated breaches of trust, the regime forfeited its moral authority to govern, while the democratic and republican character of the state was destroyed. The Constitution, having been manipulated and undermined, effectively became inoperative when the head of government fled to India. As sovereignty ultimately belongs to the people, political authority thus devolved to them.
My Prediction About the Election
Jamaat can only win if this is a wave election, signaling a tectonic shift in the national mood. There is little evidence of this in the polls and available data. It is possible, but not probable. Photo Credit: Shutterstock I wrote in the past that JI’s vote share has increased and I stand by that assessment. Different surveys conducted over the last few weeks indicate that JI has the support of 30 to 35 percent of voters.
Is Honesty Alone What We Want in a Leader?
To understand whether an individual is honest, we need to know whether that person is committed to alternation of power, whether he understands the value of inclusivity and dissent, whether he knows that people with different ideas live within the same society, and whether he is willing to let them survive, grow, and challenge him. As the election campaign is unfolding, a few issues have emerged that I find extremely concerning.
Are We Looking at a February Surprise?
As we enter the final phase before elections Jamaat-e-Islami may be poised to win far more votes than previously predicted. There is still time for BNP to regain the momentum if it appreciates the situation and pivots accordingly. But there is little evidence that it does so. Photo Credit: Shutterstock Back in January or February 2025, I wrote in a Facebook post that Jamaat’s vote share had not increased significantly and was unlikely to exceed 15%. I was wrong.
No, the Reform Process is not Meaningless, and We Need to See it Through
It is unfortunate that most civil society organizations have failed to recognize that these reforms could open new pathways for them -- creating fresh opportunities to empower citizens and strengthen the accountability of state institutions, ultimately shaping their own future governance agenda. Photo Credit: Shutterstock Since August 5, three different narratives have emerged regarding the change in political structure.
No, an Upper Chamber Will Not Lead to a Hung Parliament
The July Charter is quite clear: The proposed Upper Chamber will not have the power to block legislation, and the question of leading to a hung parliament does not even arise. I am now seeing the claim that electing an upper chamber through proportional representation will somehow produce a hung parliament. It is unclear why this conclusion is being drawn.
The July Uprising and Its Aftermath
How revolutionary aspiration transformed into an elite settlement On August 3, 2024, before thousands at Shaheed Minar, the leaders of the Anti-Discrimination Movement transformed their nine-point demands into a single demand: the removal of the AL-led regime, which had violated the civil and political liberties of Bangladeshi citizens for the last sixteen years (2009–2024). However, this call was not only about regime change -- it reflected a much broader aspiration.
Student union polls: Can denials alone erase allegations of mismanagement?
TBS On 9 September 2025, all eyes were on Dhaka University as its central students’ union (Ducsu) election took place for only the second time in 35 years. The festive event was soon followed by elections in other major public universities — Jahangirnagar University (Jucsu), Chittagong University (Cucsu), and Rajshahi University (Rucsu). Long deprived of voting rights, people expected the student union elections to mark the beginning of a democratic revival.
The Far-Right Spectre and a Liberal Politician
Mirza Fakhrul raised an important and honest concern about the growing influence of extreme right-wing ideas. Instead of blaming him, we should be talking about it. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the Secretary General of BNP, recently noted the rise of right-wing politics in an interview with the Prothom Alo. The interview has raised a lot of controversy, much of it misplaced.
Relative Strength, Absolute Stubbornness: Mapping the Politics of Deadlock
If we are serious about democracy, the path of confrontation must be abandoned. Someone must blink -- not to lose face, but to lead. It is time to reimagine strength not as stubbornness, but as the courage to compromise. Politics in Bangladesh today stands at a critical crossroads.
BNP Needs to Play the Long Game
PR-based upper house is not only good for the country, it will serve BNP's interest as well. The sooner the party understands why opposing PR is self-defeating, the better for everyone. Most crucially, for itself. Of all the suggested reform initiatives and proposals, arguably the most important one is the establishment of an upper house based on proportional representation which would enjoy some legislative and significant oversight power.
Politics has changed once again
We have an uneasy truce but still a long way to go. If the BNP doesn't understand that a bare minimum of reform is necessary to end the impasse, give it legitimacy , and help set the table for good governance, then the nation will lose, including BNP. Politics has changed once again. How will the next 6-7 months look like? Here is my take. Let me be absolutely clear about something.
Who will the citizens vote for in the next election?
Thanks to consecutive rigged elections after 2008, voters' preference structure has become almost like a black box to us. Now that the July uprising has created an opportunity to restore the democratic system in Bangladesh, surveys are being conducted to understand the evolving voters' preferences. Recently, Innovision, a research and consulting organisation, conducted a survey on this.
Rebuilding civic spaces: A new era for civil society in Bangladesh?
In the first week of August, as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left Bangladesh ending her 15 years in power, we had just completed a draft report on the state of civil society, ready to submit to a funding partner. Our interviews and discussions painted a bleak picture.
OP-ED: How the house of cards came crashing down
Four different factors explain the fault-lines in our democracy It does not matter which indicators or reports we want to follow -- be it Polity IV, Freedom of the World Report, Liberal Democracy Index, or report of the Economic Intelligence Unit, the truth is that you would be hard pressed to find an impartial outside observer with much positive to say about the state of democracy in Bangladesh today.
OP-ED: Curb your enthusiasm
Why you shouldn’t get riled up about The New York Times op-ed on Bangladesh The NY Times opinion piece written by Nick Kristof came out on March 10 and it has already caused a stir. Whereas the regime loyalists are considering it as an indication of success of the current government, others are reacting in a different way -- some of them are angry, frustrated, and are trying their best to reject the overall message of the article without even understanding its basic premise and key arguments.
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