Austin Mock
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NFL & CFB projections, draft analytics, and Rev Share/NIL modeling for @TheAthletic. The game isn't played on a spreadsheet — but it helps to have one. 📊
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Articles by Austin Mock
College football score projections Week 7: Model predicts every FBS vs. FBS game
There are a number of big games this week, including Ohio State at Indiana. My College Football Projection Model favors the Buckeyes by 4.2 points on the road. Elsewhere, my model likes Notre Dame by 13.6 points at BYU, Alabama by 6.5 points at Tennessee and LSU by 12.4 points against Mississippi State. The Mississippi State projection has Kamario Taylor in for now. He was listed as questionable on the Wednesday availability report, which is part of why the betting spread is bigger.
NFL projected scores Week 6: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
The big news this week is that Jalen Hurts is out for the Philadelphia Eagles. In my NFL Projection Model, Hurts is worth 2.5 points on the spread. The Eagles were already slight underdogs against Carolina, but now the gap is wider. The model likes the Panthers by 2.9 points while the total is projected at a paltry 39.8. Elsewhere, the model favors Seattle by 1.8 points at Denver and the Bills by 6.9 points at Las Vegas.
Are 49ers destined for Super Bowl? Why NFL Playoff Simulator makes them big favorites
The Seattle Seahawks won the 2025-26 Super Bowl championship. Then the Los Angeles Rams built an all-star team and were crowned offseason champions. Meanwhile, everyone seemed to forget about the other Super Bowl contender in the NFC West: the San Francisco 49ers. Well, no one is ignoring them now. Coach Kyle Shanahan and company are off to a 5-0 start, making them one of the NFL’s three remaining unbeaten teams (Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings).
Seahawks vs. Broncos odds, picks, predictions for Thursday Night Football
Much is made of short weeks in the NFL: Teams that play on Sunday the week before have only three days of rest before taking the stage in primetime — but it hasn’t been much of an issue for the teams starring in the Week 6 edition of Thursday Night Football. The Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos are tied for the longest active win streak on a short week with each having won four straight games on fewer than six days of rest, per TruMedia, but (presumably) only one can extend that run.
Man vs. machine: Where NFL Projection Model clashes with Week 6 power rankings
If we have learned anything from movies — from “2001: A Space Odyssey” to “The Matrix” to “The Terminator” series — it’s that the machines are never wrong and will one day make for excellent overlords. And as I thought about our peaceful and prosperous future with the machines, I decided that it’s Judgement Day here at The Athletic. For too long, our human-led NFL power rankings have gone unchecked. It’s time for the machines to take over and properly organize the chaos that is the NFL hierarchy.
NFL best bets Week 6: Picking unders, including one with a low total in Denver
Get the brooms out ladies and gentleman because my NFL Projections Model swept the board last week and it’s back for more this week, including a bet in the Thursday Night Football game. Now, a sweep of two games isn’t all that impressive (one was a half-unit play, too) but a winning week is a winning week. We did not get closing line value because of some poor weather, but it won anyway. Who cares what the market says, right? Just kidding.
NFL best bets Week 6: Picking unders, including one with a low total in Denver
The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to take on the Utah Mammoth tonight and will need to do so without a certain blueliner. The Toronto Maple Leafs are …
College football best bets Week 7: A bounce-back spot for Texas and fading Northwestern’s new offense
A bounce back spot for Arch Manning and Texas? Can Chip Kelly really keep doing this with Northwestern’s offense? Those are questions that my College Football Projection Model is targeting this week for best bets. Plus, there’s a pretty gross bet in Washington at Purdue. First, we must recap last week. The model had a good showing (finally). We are going to post the article earlier in the week to get some better numbers, which is paramount to success.
College football score projections Week 6: Model predicts every FBS vs. FBS game
Georgia goes to Alabama on Saturday and the spread is very close. Alabama is a 1.5-point favorite, but my College Football Projection Model has that flipped. It likes the Bulldogs by 1.4 points on the road. While that game could take place in the path of Hurricane Isaias, my numbers like Georgia either way. Similarly, it likes USC by 1.7 points at Penn State, where the host Nittany Lions are 1.5-point favorites. The model takes into account past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings.
NFL projected scores Week 5: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
This week’s NFL schedule features a huge game in the NFC West, a matchup of power teams on Monday night, a classic rivalry and even a meeting of two 0-4 teams. My NFL Projection Model has the point spreads and point totals for all 15 games. The model likes the Seattle Seahawks by 2.8 points against the San Francisco 49ers, it has the Los Angeles Rams by 2.7 points against the Buffalo Bills and it favors the Chicago Bears by less than a point (0.9) at Green Bay.
College football best bets Week 6: Picking a side in Georgia-Alabama
Georgia versus Alabama is your game of the week (sorry, Texas and Oklahoma) and my College Football Projection Model has value on the game for a best bet. And it’s a moneyline bet so the model is confident in picking a side. First, let’s recap last week. Six plays for this week and a few other totals that I’m eyeing, but I need to figure out which way Hurricane Isaias is going to travel. I’ll just have to wait and see on those. I fully expect the market to do the same.
QB Index leaderboard: Brock Purdy is your MVP; Bryce Young is even better than you think
It’s not too late, friends. There is still time to hop aboard the Brock Purdy bandwagon. In fact, if you were hesitant before, we have the perfect remedy for your doubts: QB Index is giving you its blessing to believe. QB Index, for those who don’t recall, is our new and indisputable metric for measuring a quarterback’s success.
QBs under center, a tight end bonanza and coverage tricks among NFL trends we’re watching
Snap judgments are risky in the NFL. Week 1’s scoring eruption was counterbalanced by lower scores a week later, and through four weeks, the average offensive points per game has barely budged from last season. But behind the scenes, strategies and tendencies are constantly shifting as coaches race to keep ahead of or counter the latest innovations We’ve been monitoring some of the league’s most noteworthy trends, from offensive alignments to defensive responses to game management decisions.
QB Index leaderboard: Brock Purdy is your MVP; Bryce Young is even better than you think
It’s not too late, friends. There is still time to hop aboard the Brock Purdy bandwagon. In fact, if you were hesitant before, we have the perfect remedy for your doubts: QB Index is giving you its blessing to believe. QB Index, for those who don’t recall, is our new and indisputable metric for measuring a quarterback’s success.
NFL best bets Week 5: Has the market not caught up to the Raiders offense yet?
Nothing like a bad beat in the NFL. The Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles had no business getting to 44 points, but turnovers and short fields did us in. Of course, that game closed at 42.5 after we played 43.5, but that’s how it goes sometimes. The other plays were not bad beats by any stretch of the imagination so it wasn’t like we lost a winning week or anything but that was a tough loss to swallow.
NFL Week 4 picks, predictions: ATS, over/under expert bets for Sunday’s schedule
Three weeks into the NFL season, we have five teams with perfect 3-0 records, and five teams still searching for win No. 1. That creates interesting matchups for Week 4, including 3-0 Minnesota hosting 0-3 Miami and a battle of unbeatens between Kansas City and Las Vegas. Can the Raiders improve to 4-0 for the first time in 24 years? Will any of the winless teams pull a shocker? And which early-season trends are worth trusting three weeks in?
College football score projections Week 5: Model predicts every FBS vs. FBS game
Alabama at Mississippi State may not have been on a lot of people’s radars as a big game before the season, but the host Bulldogs are 4-0 and have a shot for a colossal win against the also undefeated Crimson Tide. My College Football Projection Model favors Alabama by 6.5 points, which is slightly more than the betting spreads which have been between 5.5 and 6 points. The other undefeated vs. undefeated matchup of Week 5 is less on the radar: Pitt at Virginia Tech on Friday.
NFL projected scores Week 4: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
NFL Week 4 features one matchup of 3-0 teams. One team, the Kansas City Chiefs, isn’t a big surprise to be 3-0. Their opponents, the Las Vegas Raiders, are more surprising at 3-0. My NFL Projection Model favors the Chiefs on the road by 5.8 points, which is a bit more than the 5-point spread. Let’s see what else the model has for Week 4. My NFL Projection Model has point spreads and point totals for every game on the slate.
College football best bets Week 5: Buying low on Penn State and backing Miami, USC
My College Football Projection Model took a blow last week with its best bets. It was a reverse sweep, but we are bouncing back this week with some bets in some of the bigger games of the weekend, including a Friday night thriller. I see some value in the Miami-Clemson matchup and think USC bounces back. Before we get into the action, let’s recap last week and the season so far.
Are the Raiders and Vikings frauds? What NFL Projection Model says about 3-0 teams
After winning a grand total of three games last season, the Las Vegas Raiders’ 3-0 start to 2026 might be the NFL’s most shocking story. And remember, they won their first two games without arguably their best player — tight end Brock Bowers — who looked fabulous in his Week 3 return. Still, three games is an awfully small sample size. Should those games change the way we feel about the Raiders? Put another way: Is the Raiders’ fast start maybe a little fraudulent?
Are the Raiders and Vikings frauds? What NFL Projection Model says about 3-0 teams
After winning a grand total of three games last season, the Las Vegas Raiders’ 3-0 start to 2026 might be the NFL’s most shocking story. And remember, they won their first two games without arguably their best player — tight end Brock Bowers — who looked fabulous in his Week 3 return. Still, three games is an awfully small sample size. Should those games change the way we feel about the Raiders? Put another way: Is the Raiders’ fast start maybe a little fraudulent?
NFL best bets Week 4: Buying the Bills and Cardinals, plus a Broncos-49ers total play
Don’t let my NFL Projection Model get hot with its best bets! Two weeks in and the results have been great. We were one game away from a clean sweep last week, but the Cincinnati Bengals let Aaron Rodgers throw deep on them. Either way, you’ll never find me complaining about a winning week. Let’s keep this going with Week 4. We have three plays for now and a few others that I’m waiting on injury news to lock in. So as we do every week, stay tuned for any updates to the article.
Falcons to win the NFC South? Why this expert is betting on it
Three weeks in, and there have already been some big swings in the NFL futures market. The “offseason champion” Los Angeles Rams have limped out of the gate to a 1-2 start — and their schedule only heats up with the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills up next. The Houston Texans, another team with considerable offseason buzz, find themselves 0-3 for the second straight season. Oh, and the similarly-winless Los Angeles Chargers look like one of the worst teams in the league so far.
NFL picks, predictions: Expert ATS, over/under bets for Week 3
NFL scoring crashed down to Earth last week after a historic opening slate. What will Week 3 have in store? Sports betting analyst Nick Kostos has straight-up picks for every game to go with nine against-the-spread bets. The Athletic’s Austin Mock has also identified five totals he likes on the board. Let’s run through the 15 games to round out the week, with some help from researcher David Bearman who has key stats and trends for every game.
College football score projections Week 4: Model predicts every FBS vs. FBS game
There are a lot of big games on the college football schedule this week and my projection model has predicted point spreads and totals for all of them. Among the biggest games of the week, my model has Texas by 5.8 points at Tennessee, Florida by a single point at home against Ole Miss and Oregon by only half a point at USC. The model takes into account past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the FanDuel lines for extra context.
NFL projected scores Week 3: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
There are eight teams in the NFL with 2-0 records and none of them play each other in Week 3. That means there are some lopsided spreads and chances for upsets. My NFL Projection Model has five games on the Week 3 slate that have projected margins of victory of more than a touchdown. My NFL Projection Model has point spreads and point totals for every game on the slate. It takes in play-by-play data to create projections for each team in the league.
NFL best bets Week 3: Fading the Steelers and Patriots on offense and the Cowboys defense
Sometimes there are bets you’re looking to make and things don’t break your way. And when that happens, you just have to keep moving forward and deal with it. You can’t let it affect your process because if you believe your process is good, results will come over the long-term.
Panic time for Chargers? What NFL Projection Model says about LA, other 0-2 teams
Week 3 is about to begin, and a quarter of NFL teams remain winless. Starting 0-2 has long been considered a death sentence for a team’s playoff hopes, but is it really that bad? Since 2002, 0-2 teams make the playoffs just 12 percent of the time, and a significant portion of those fortunate teams have ended up winning what turned out to be a relatively weak division.
College football best bets Week 4: Should Ole Miss be an underdog at Florida?
One week of best bets on the college football side, and we are off to a nice start. My College Football Projection Model saw value on five plays last week, and despite losing one game that I thought the box score said was unlucky, we came away with a winning week. Let’s turn the page to next week and hopefully keep it rolling. Overall record: 3-2, +0.79 units, +14.6% ROI Four plays on the card to start this week. Check back to see if I add any plays.
The Colts kicked off. The Jets received. Which team made the right overtime decision?
Your team just forced overtime, won the coin toss and now faces a crucial decision: The New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts faced this quandary Sunday, and each team made a different decision. The Jets elected to receive the kick in their overtime game against the Green Bay Packers, while the Indianapolis Colts elected to kick off to the Kansas City Chiefs. So, which team made the right call? Neither. Both teams lost.
College football roster valuation is a nearly impossible task. Here’s one attempt to solve it
How much does it cost to win a national championship? That’s the most important question in college football right now, but schools are not obligated to publicize the financial details of their rosters, so firm answers are hard to find. And it’s not just how much a roster costs, but how efficiently a program spends its money, because resources are not unlimited.
College football Week 3 score projections: Model predicts every FBS vs. FBS game including LSU-Ole Miss
LSU at Ole Miss is clearly the biggest game of the week in college football. To make things even better, my College Football Projection Model puts just one point between the teams. My model favors LSU by a point, which is even tighter than the 2.5-point spread. In another close SEC game, my model has Florida by 0.8 points at Auburn. Elsewhere, Louisville is projected to beat SMU by 4.2 points and the model likes Texas Tech 10 points more than Houston at home.
NFL projected scores Week 2: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
We have one week of data for NFL teams this season. Let’s see how those numbers affected my model’s view of everyone heading into Week 2. My NFL Projection Model has point spreads and point totals for every game on the slate. It takes in play-by-play data to create projections for each team in the league. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points-per-game for the offense and defense.
College football best bets Week 3: Should Louisville be a bigger favorite against SMU?
It’s time to rev up my College Football Projection Model and fire off some best bets for Week 3. There are plenty of quality games this week and I’m going to have action on a few of them. Before we get into the Week 3 action, let’s recap last year and past years. Season record: 28-39-1, -15.19 units, -20.2% ROI Overall record: 246-261-15, -36.45 units, -6.4% ROI Last year was, uh, not great. But full transparency here as we look for a bounce back year.
Why NFL Projection Model is buying the Giants offense and selling Patriots panic
Should we overreact to Week 1 results? Tell me this: Should we have cared that the Las Vegas Raiders beat the AFC champion New England Patriots in Week 1 last year? The answer to both questions is, of course, no. However, just because we don’t want to overreact to a small sample size doesn’t mean there’s nothing to learn from the first week of NFL action.
NFL best bets Week 2: Leaning into unders, including Colts-Chiefs
After a successful 2025 season, let’s fire the NFL Projection Model back up and see where the value lies this week. There is plenty on the board as it stands right now so let’s not let the lines get away from us. First, for transparency, let’s see how we did last year and beyond since I’ve been posting best bets on the site starting in 2021.
Super Bowl picks, NFL playoff predictions: 49ers and Packers futures to consider betting
The first week of the NFL regular season is (almost) over and we already saw some pretty drastic swings in the playoff race, none bigger than the Arizona Cardinals upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers. But that wasn’t all.
College football Week 2 score projections: Model predicts every FBS vs. FBS game including Ohio State-Texas
The first marquee game of the college football season is on Saturday when No. 1 Ohio State goes to No. 4 Texas. The odds and my model both have this game as a near coin flip. My projection model favors Ohio State by a mere point at Texas. It also has Oklahoma winning at Michigan by 5.1 points, compared to a spread that has bounced between 4.5 and 5.5 points. The model takes into account past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings.
NFL projected scores Week 1: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
The NFL is back and doing so with a Wednesday start. My NFL Projection Model is tuned up and ready to go for the new season. All of my projections are back with the 2026 NFL Simulator. It can show you how likely your team is to make the playoffs, the likelihood of your team’s chances of winning each game on its schedule as well as its view on the odds of each team to make the playoffs, win its division or the Super Bowl. Let’s narrow the focus to Week 1, though.
NFL futures forecast: Buying the Patriots, Steelers while fading the Broncos
The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, but before the action gets started, let’s make some predictions for what’s to come this season by looking at the futures market. My overall plan when betting futures is that there are always opportunities during the season. You don’t need to rush yourself and grab every play possible early in the season. You can be patient.
The NFL Playoff Simulator is back! Here’s how you can use it
The NFL Playoff Simulator is back and better than ever! We’ve taken big steps this offseason to improve our NFL season projecting tool, and we’re thrilled to be sharing it with you. As you might remember, the simulator, which is powered by my NFL Projection Model, can tell you just about anything you want to know about how the 2026 season is likely to unfold.
Introducing QB Index: A perfect QB stat everyone will love, and no one will disagree with
They say the perfect quarterback stat doesn’t exist. Until now. Just kidding. They (whoever they are) are right. Sadly, for an analytics nerd like me, there will never be a single, all-encompassing metric that accurately measures and accounts for every aspect of playing quarterback. Football is a messy game with far too many variables for one statistic to ever fully grasp.
Introducing QB Index: A perfect QB stat everyone will love, and no one will disagree with
They say the perfect quarterback stat doesn’t exist. Until now. Just kidding. They (whoever they are) are right. Sadly, for an analytics nerd like me, there will never be a single, all-encompassing metric that accurately measures and accounts for every aspect of playing quarterback. Football is a messy game with far too many variables for one statistic to ever fully grasp.
NFC South odds, projections: The tightest division race is in the NFL’s weakest one
Single-digit wins have been enough to claim the NFC South crown in three of the past four seasons — and it’ll likely be enough to do it again in 2026. The Athletic‘s predictive analyst Austin Mock forecasts all four teams to finish with between six and eight wins while sportsbooks like DraftKings list odds that give each between an 18 and 35 percent implied probability to come out on top.
NFC West odds, projections: The gap between the favored Rams and defending champion Seahawks
The top of the NFC West oddsboard looks a lot like the top of the Super Bowl oddsboard: The Los Angeles Rams are favored and the reigning champion Seattle Seahawks follow. The strength of the Rams is the simple answer as to why the Seahawks aren’t favored to defend either of those titles — but we’ve asked The Athletic’s predictive analyst, Austin Mock, to break down how his model projects both teams.
SEC odds, win totals, projections: Georgia favored ahead of Texas, LSU, Alabama in deep league
The SEC hasn’t been winning national titles lately, but the conference might still be deeper than any other in the country. With nine teams in the AP Top 25, including seven of the top 13, there are high expectations for the SEC. Georgia is the betting favorite to win it, but the Bulldogs are from a sure thing. Their +260 odds on DraftKings demonstrate the expected balance within the top several teams.
NFC North odds, projections: Could the Bears challenge the Lions for division crown?
Last season, the Chicago Bears smashed their 7.5-win total with an 11-6 run to their first NFC North title since 2018. To start this season, they’re sitting third on the list of odds to win the division. Their +305 odds give them a 23 percent implied probability to defend their crown, so they’re not far behind the Detroit Lions at +175 (33 percent) — or the Green Bay Packers at +240 (27 percent).
NFC East odds, projections: Why Eagles, Cowboys are well ahead of Commanders
Jayden Daniels took the NFL by storm with his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign that carried the Washington Commanders to 12 wins and the NFC Championship Game — the franchise’s best year since its last Super Bowl win to cap the 1991 season. An elbow injury coupled with natural regression sent Daniels and the Commanders crashing back down to Earth, clearing the lane for the NFC East’s new power, the Philadelphia Eagles, to lead the division.
Which sleepers could make the College Football Playoff? 10 teams that can beat the odds
The Athletic launched its College Football Playoff projections on Wednesday, powered by Austin Mock’s model that simulates the season 100,000 times. Here, Austin and Scott Dochterman convene to pick CFP sleepers from the Power 4 conferences (under 15 percent to make the bracket) and the Group of 6 (under 6 percent). ACC Mock: Louisville (13.9%). Under Jeff Brohm, Louisville has been ascending, but the theme has been close losses to derail its chances.
AFC South odds, projections: How tight is race between Texans, Jaguars, Colts?
The Indianapolis Colts haven’t won the AFC South since 2014, winning 10 or more games just once since (2018). Their hopes after an 8-2 start to last season were quickly dashed after a couple one-score losses in Weeks 12 and 13 were followed by losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles in Week 14, losing out to finish 8-9. Now with Jones back, do the Colts have a chance to hang with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars in the hunt for the division crown and playoffs?
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