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Articles by Barak Mendelsohn
On the Horizon: The Future of the Jihadi Movement
TERRORISMOn the Horizon: The Future of the Jihadi Movement Published 2 May 2024 Factors of continuity, such as anti-regime grievances, the appeal of religious ideology, and the ability to hurt, are likely to maintain jihadism as a viable resistance ideology.
Paper Tiger: The Enemy Image of America
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Craig Borowiak, Daniel Byman, Thomas Donahue, Paulina Ochoa Espejo, Ryan Grauer, Samuel Helfont, Dominic Johnson, Asfandyar Mir, Michael Noonan, Zach Oberfield, Giri Parameswaran, Jeremy Pressman, Susanna Wing and Raz Zimmet for useful comments. The authors would like to thank Sarah Cahn, Sky Park and Annie Zhang for research assistance.
Zawahiri’s Legacy and the Prospects for an al-Qaeda Revival
Editor’s Note: Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is dead, but al-Qaeda persists. How dangerous is the group today? Colin Clarke of the Soufan Center and Haverford College’s Barak Mendelsohn assess the strengths and weaknesses of al-Qaeda and describe what is necessary for al-Qaeda to launch a comeback. Daniel Byman *** Twenty-one years after the 9/11 attacks, the state of al-Qaeda still remains a subject of significant controversy and disagreement among experts.
Zawahiri’s Legacy and the Prospects for an al-Qaeda Revival
Published by The Lawfare Institute in Cooperation With Editor’s Note: Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is dead, but al-Qaeda persists. How dangerous is the group today? Colin Clarke of the Soufan Center and Haverford College’s Barak Mendelsohn assess the strengths and weaknesses of al-Qaeda and describe what is necessary for al-Qaeda to launch a comeback.
Collateral Damage in Iraq
On its lightning-fast advance through Iraq, the radical jihadi group the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has captured Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city; Tikrit, Saddam Hussain’s birth city; and many other towns along the way. Now, with help from former Baathists and Sunni tribal forces, the group is making its way toward Baghdad. ISIS’ astonishing success could be a harbinger of a tectonic shift within the jihadi movement. Namely, ISIS could supplant al Qaeda as the movement’s leader.
Al Qaeda Is Being Hollowed to Its Core
Barak Mendelsohn & Colin Clarke War on the Rocks February 25, 2021 Last year was a bad year for the world. Not even al-Qaeda was spared. To start, in January al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leader Qassim al-Rimi was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Yemen, inflicting a serious blow to the group’s most operationally capable branch. Other al-Qaeda branches were attenuated over the course of 2020.
Al-Qaeda Is Being Hollowed to Its Core
Last year was a bad year for the world. Not even al-Qaeda was spared. To start, in January al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leader Qassim al-Rimi was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Yemen, inflicting a serious blow to the group’s most operationally capable branch. Other al-Qaeda branches were attenuated over the course of 2020. Abdelmalek Droukdel, who led al-Qaeda’s branch in North Africa, was killed by French forces in Mali in June.
The Limits of Ideologically-Unlikely Partnerships: Syria’s Support for Jihadi Terrorist Groups
1 Keohane defines cooperation as actors’ adjustment of their behavior to the preferences of others, through a process of policy coordination, understood to benefit all the interests of all participating actors. See Robert Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press). Although coordination carries the connotation of low-level cooperation, it is an element of cooperation nonetheless.
Ayman al-Zawahiri and the Challenges of Succession in Terrorist Organizations
ABSTRACT What challenges do newly appointed terrorist leaders face? The paper proposes four primary needs all new leaders consider, including acceptance by the organization’s members, assuming control, maintaining organizational coherence and unity, and overcoming counterterrorism pressures.
The Near Enemy
With Hamas busy firing rockets at Israeli cities, it's only natural that the Israeli public's primary concern in recent days has been physical security. But it should also be attuned to other, equally dangerous, problems posed by the current crisis. As Israel shifts to war footing, the authority of the Israeli state and the country's ability to remain a pluralistic democracy are under threat.
In Limited Demand: The Other Foreign Volunteers in the Syrian Civil War
The wars in Syria and Iraq attracted about 45,000 individuals from outside the arenas. Most joined the Islamic State, but interestingly, other prominent armed groups showed less interest in foreign volunteers. This paper introduces the Demand for Foreign Volunteers Theory (DFVT) to explain the diverging choices Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and the People’s Protection Units made.
Roundtable: The Future of the Foreign Fighters Problem
The post-9/11 wars have spurred a lot of attention on the problem of transnational foreign fighters. Such foreign fighters—foreign nationals drawn to intervene into civil conflicts for reasons of religion, ethnicity, or ideology—have been used to generate combat power on the ground and in many cases have been exceedingly brutal and indiscriminate in the application of violence.
The Future Of Regional Cooperation In The War On Terror
Four veteran counterterrorism experts discuss whether America’s alliances with Middle East partners have helped or hindered the fight against global extremism. On September 14, Matthew Levitt, Stephen Tankel, Tricia Bacon, and Barak Mendelsohn addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Levitt is the Institute’s Fromer-Wexler Fellow and editor of its recent compilation Neither Remaining Nor Expanding: The Decline of the Islamic State.
Transnational Jihadism and the Aggregation Problem
Transnational Jihadism and the Aggregation Problem On Aug. 22, ISIL's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi issued his first message to his followers in nearly a year, calling on them to carry out lone-wolf attacks in the West. The message should alarm policymakers about a potential new wave of terrorist attacks, but it also serves as a reminder of how far the group has fallen and, more broadly, of a longstanding problem with jihadist grand strategies that ISIL has not been able to solve.Read Full Article »
Bound to Fail: Transnational Jihadism and the Aggregation Problem
On Aug. 22, ISIL’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi issued his first message to his followers in nearly a year, calling on them to carry out lone-wolf attacks in the West. The message should alarm policymakers about a potential new wave of terrorist attacks, but it also serves as a reminder of how far the group has fallen and, more broadly, of a longstanding problem with jihadist grand strategies that ISIL has not been able to solve.
With Trump Focused Elsewhere, Al-Qaeda Readies For The Day After ISIS
The botched U.S. military raid carried out against al-Qaeda’s branch in Yemen that yielded President Donald Trump’s first military death since taking office was a stark reminder of al-Qaeda’s resilience and potency. Nearly six years since the death of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda remains an active presence with affiliates around the world including places like Syria, Yemen, Somalia, North Africa, and the Indian Subcontinent.
Power, Legitimacy, and the Self-Limiting Logic of Terrorism
Terrorism is a coercive strategy used by groups seeking to compel stronger enemies to accept their demands. To better understand the logic of terrorism and its inherent limitations, we should look beyond terrorists’ offensive capabilities and examine how terrorist groups undermine their enemies’ legitimacy. State legitimacy depends in part on a state’s ability to provide security to its population, while adhering to a set of rules and norms regarding domestic and international behavior.
Al Nusra Is Stronger Than Ever
Three months after its “split” from al Qaeda, which in reality is simply a feint, Jabhat Fateh al Sham (JFS), formerly known as Jabhat al Nusra, may pose a more significant long-term threat to the West than the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). While the West targets ISIS, JFS is quietly laying the groundwork for al Qaeda's resurgence by “hunkering down,” rebuilding, and repositioning itself along several fronts.
Al-Qaeda’s ruthless pragmatism makes it more dangerous than Islamic State ― Colin P. Clarke and Barak Mendelsohn
Al-Qaeda’s ruthless pragmatism makes it more dangerous than Islamic State ? Colin P. Clarke and Barak Mendelsohn OCTOBER 29 ? Policymakers and terrorism scholars are debating whether al-Qaeda or Islamic State is the more dangerous threat to the United States and the West. After the various bombings and attacks across the West, many experts insist Islamic State is the more serious problem. That is a mistake. Al-Qaeda presents the gravest long-term problem to the West.
Commentary: Al Qaeda’s ruthless pragmatism makes it more dangerous than Islamic State
Policymakers and terrorism scholars are debating whether al Qaeda or Islamic State is the more dangerous threat to the United States and the West. A man walks near damaged houses after Syrian rebels and the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front took control of al-'Iss town, in Aleppo countryside, Syria April 2, 2016. REUTERS/Ammar Abdullah After the various bombings and attacks across the West, many experts insist Islamic State is the more serious problem. That is a mistake.
Al Qaeda's Ruthless Pragmatism Makes It More Dangerous Than the Islamic State
Policymakers and terrorism scholars are debating whether al Qaeda or the Islamic State is the more dangerous threat to the United States and the West. After the various bombings and attacks across the West, many experts insist the Islamic State is the more serious problem. That is a mistake. Al Qaeda presents the gravest long-term problem to the West. Al Qaeda's ruthlessly pragmatic approach has placed it in a far better position to achieve its strategic objectives.
Accepting Al Qaeda
Since 9/11, Washington has considered al Qaeda the greatest threat to the United States, one that must be eliminated regardless of cost or time. After Washington killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, it made Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s new leader, its next number one target.
Why Do Armed Nonstate Actors Recruit Foreign Fighters? Evidence from the Syrian Civil War - Harvard - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Add to Outlook | Add to Google Calendar | Add to Yahoo Calendar Conventional wisdom suggests that armed nonstate actors benefit from foreign fighters, but the empirical evidence indicates that this is not necessarily the case. Using foreign volunteers is a risky and often costly option, taken by only some rebel groups and terrorist organizations. Why, then, do some armed nonstate actors turn to foreign fighters while others avoid them?
Why Do Armed Nonstate Actors Recruit Foreign Fighters: Evidence from the Syrian Civil War - Harvard - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Add to Outlook | Add to Google Calendar | Add to Yahoo Calendar Conventional wisdom suggests that armed nonstate actors benefit from foreign fighters, but the empirical evidence indicates that this is not necessarily the case. Using foreign volunteers is a risky and often costly option, taken by only some rebel groups and terrorist organizations. Why, then, do some armed nonstate actors turn to foreign fighters while others avoid them?
It’s been 15 years since 9/11. How has al-Qaeda changed?
Fifteen years after 9/11, confronting terrorism remains a central American priority. U.S. forces are still deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq; others carry out counterterrorism missions throughout the world. In recent years, opinions about al-Qaeda’s fortunes have sharply polarized.
ISIS' Lone-Wolf Strategy
A string of lone wolf terrorist attacks in France, Germany, the United States and elsewhere suggests that the phenomenon continues to spread and that it is growing increasingly lethal. Between October 2015 and August 2016 radicalized individuals, as well as “wolf packs,” carried out over 20 attacks in response to the Islamic State’s call to indiscriminately kill “nonbeliever” civilians. The lone-wolf strategy benefits the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) in several ways.
Jihad's Civil War
The barbaric shooting in the Pulse nightclub in Orlando that resulted in the death of 49 people and the injury of 53 others is the latest in a string of terrorist attacks in the West. It is too early to determine whether the perpetrator, Omar Pateen, was directed or only inspired by ISIS.
Jihadology Podcast: al-Qaeda's Franchising Strategy
Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a visiting research scholar in the Department of Politics at Brandeis University, and the founder of Jihadology. He is also the author of the book “Your Sons Are At Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad” (Columbia University Press, 2020) and the recent booklet “The Age of Political Jihadism: A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.”
Brookings experts weigh in: What is the future of al-Qaeda and ISIS?
Will McCants: As we wind down another year in the so-called Long War and begin another, it’s a good time to reflect on where we are in the fight against al-Qaida and its bête noire, the Islamic State. Both organizations have benefited from the chaos unleashed by the Arab Spring uprisings but they have taken different paths. Will those paths converge again or will the two organizations continue to remain at odds? Who has the best strategy at the moment?
Experts Weigh In: What is the future of al-Qaida and the Islamic State?
Will McCants: As we wind down another year in the so-called Long War and begin another, it’s a good time to reflect on where we are in the fight against al-Qaida and its bête noire, the Islamic State. Both organizations have benefited from the chaos unleashed by the Arab Spring uprisings but they have taken different paths. Will those paths converge again or will the two organizations continue to remain at odds? Who has the best strategy at the moment?
Planning for Partition in Syria
The October bombing of a Russian airliner above Sinai, followed quickly by the November Paris attacks, created a broad international consensus that the Islamic State (ISIS) is on the march and must be stopped. The United States had acknowledged as much—at least rhetorically—over a year ago. In September 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that the United States would seek to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the group, but cautioned that the campaign would be long and difficult. Indeed.
Threat Analysis and Multilateral Counterterrorism
Editor’s Note: The United Nations can play an important role in counterterrorism, but it often fails to deliver. Much of the UN’s effort is channeled through the 1267 Committee, which designates terrorist groups and coordinates financial restrictions against them.
Why Mullah Omar's Death Could Hurt al Qaeda and Empower ISIS
Last month’s announcement of the death of the Taliban leader Mullah Omar occasioned a barrage of commentary about the implications for the Taliban and the ongoing Afghan peace talks. But his final departure from the scene could have a momentous impact on the jihadi movement as well, strengthening ISIS and further diminishing al Qaeda. The reclusive Omar was a strong ally of al Qaeda, and his passing is a major blow to the group and its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
"The Jihadi Threat to International Order"
This post is part of the "Islam and International Order" symposium. All terrorist groups challenge state sovereignty and the international order. However, this challenge is usually of limited scope, with political objectives confined to such conventional goals as assuming power in a state or gaining independence. Their violence, however disruptive, still accepts the state-based international order as an organizing principle.
The jihadi threat to international order
This post is part of the “Islam and International Order” symposium. All terrorist groups challenge state sovereignty and the international order. However, this challenge is usually of limited scope, with political objectives confined to such conventional goals as assuming power in a state or gaining independence. Their violence, however disruptive, still accepts the state-based international order as an organizing principle.
"Islamic State in Yemen: Why IS is Seeking to Expand"
The bombing of two mosques in Sanaa, which killed close to 140 people and injured 350, represents another stage in Yemen's spiralling violence. But the significance of the bombing, which was claimed by Islamic State (IS) militants, goes beyond the horrendous human loss. If IS indeed stands behind the attack, it would not only further complicate the situation in Yemen, but also have implications for the broader struggle against IS.
Islamic State in Yemen: Why IS is seeking to expand
The bombing of two mosques in Sanaa, which killed close to 140 people and injured 350, represents another stage in Yemen's spiralling violence. But the significance of the bombing, which was claimed by Islamic State (IS) militants, goes beyond the horrendous human loss. If IS indeed stands behind the attack, it would not only further complicate the situation in Yemen, but also have implications for the broader struggle against IS.
Barak Mendelsohn | How to Use Al Qaeda to Counterbalance ISIS | Foreign Affairs
Since 9/11, Washington has considered al Qaeda the greatest threat to the United States, one that must be eliminated regardless of cost or time. After Washington killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, it made Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s new leader, its next number one target.
"Accepting Al Qaeda: The Enemy of the United States' Enemy"
The bombing of both ISIS al Qaeda targets in Syria reinforced the jihadist narrative that Washington is hostile to Sunni Muslims and ready to bargain with the murderous Alawite regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Since 9/11, Washington has considered al Qaeda the greatest threat to the United States, one that must be eliminated regardless of cost or time. After Washington killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, it made Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's new leader, its next number one target.
Accepting Al Qaeda
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions Since 9/11, Washington has considered al Qaeda the greatest threat to the United States, one that must be eliminated regardless of cost or time. After Washington killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, it made Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s new leader, its next number one target.
Khalil al-Anani | How ISIS Entered Egypt | Foreign Affairs
The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has officially entered Egypt. On November 10, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, a militant movement that operates out of the northern Sinai Peninsula, pledged allegiance to ISIS and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The group, which emerged after the 2011 uprising that overthrew Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, has already established itself as a formidable player in its own right.
"State Authority in the Balance: The Israeli State and the Messianic Settler Movement"
Graffiliti on the Qusra mosque's wall after a "price-tag" attack by settlers from the illegal outpost of Migron in September 2011. An Israeli court injunction was passed just hours before the attack, requiring the demolition of 3 structures within Migron. Why do states allow and even encourage extremist nonstate actors to intervene in an international conflict in violation of domestic and international law, as well as state interests?
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