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RESEARCH ARTICLE Previous Next Online Early Michele Haynes A B F , Timothy O’Rourke C , Daphne Nash D , Bernard Baffour A E , Sue York A , Carys Chainey A , Georgia Betros A and Paul Memmott A D + Author Affiliations - Author Affiliations A Institute for Social Science Research, The University of Queensland, Long Pocket Precinct, 80 Meiers Road, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia.
Heading into the final presidential debate tonight with just an 11% chance of winning the election (according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast), Trump will no doubt be hoping to upset expectations on 8 November. Certainly, when he won the Republican nomination, CNN carried a headline which said that Trump had “defied all odds”. That is a well-worn phrase, but it is somewhat misleading in the context of probabilistic forecasts of election outcomes.
Heading into the final presidential debate tonight with just an 11% chance of winning the election (according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast), Trump will no doubt be hoping to upset expectations on 8 November. Certainly, when he won the Republican nomination, CNN carried a headline which said that Trump had “defied all odds”. That is a well-worn phrase, but it is somewhat misleading in the context of probabilistic forecasts of election outcomes.
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