Bill Scher
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Politics Editor for the Washington @Monthly. Also, contributor @politico @realclearnews, @DMZShow, When America Worked podcast. (Avi by @Jess_Sassenach.)
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Articles by Bill Scher
Meet the Democratic Senate Candidates Who Are Overperforming. And Underperforming.
While taking control of the U.S. Senate seemed out of reach for Democrats at the beginning of the year, probabilistic election forecasters now put the chances of a Democratic Senate majority at 58 percent to 75 percent. That should not be attributed primarily to the national shift in the electorate toward Democrats (although that obviously helps), but rather to the particularly strong field of Democratic candidates competing on Republican turf and the relative weakness of their opponents.
Kansas? Montana? Mississippi? Where Will the Blue Wave Crest?
Both parties know that Democrats are heading into the final weeks of the midterm election campaign with momentum, as Republican political action committees have all but given up defending their Senate seat in North Carolina, and their House seats in Iowa’s 1st, New Jersey’s 7th, and Nebraska’s 2nd districts. Meanwhile, Democratic operations are spreading into deep red territory, including Senate races in Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina and House races in Kentucky, Montana, and Alaska.
Is It True That If You’re Explaining, You’re Losing?
“If you’re explaining, you’re losing” is an old political adage sometimes attributed to Ronald Reagan, but it probably predates him. The axiom justifies campaign operatives launching harsh attacks on opponents, regardless of veracity, because it forces the accused to either defensively explain themselves or let the charge go unanswered. And for the accused, it argues for choosing the latter tack to stay on offense.
Trump’s Midterm Rally Blitz Probably Won’t Work
“If you have approved of my leadership and wish me to continue to be your unembarrassed spokesman in affairs at home and abroad, I earnestly beg that you will express yourself unmistakably to that effect by returning a Democratic majority to both the Senate and the House of Representatives.” Such was President Woodrow Wilson’s appeal to voters in late October ahead of the 1918 midterms.
Why You Should Believe the Polls This Time
This summer, I was a poll skeptic. Internal polling published by campaigns and allied political action committees shaped public perceptions, affected fundraising, forced primary candidates in Michigan and Maine to quit, and perhaps even influenced the data-weighing choices of independent pollsters.
Matt Lewis & the News(letter)
Playback speed × Share post Share post at current time Share from 0:00 0:00 / The Republican Plan to Buy the 2026 Midterms Is Failing Bill Scher on Abdul El-Sayed’s seven-point prediction, why GOP super PAC cash buys fewer ads than candidate money, and how the Senate map is stretching from Michigan to Kansas.
The Republican Plan to Buy the Election Got Too Expensive
“Republicans Enter Final Midterm Stretch With a Significant Financial Edge.” “Republicans Are Unleashing Their Fundraising Advantage Against the Democrats.” “Republicans’ One Clear Advantage This November: Money.” These headlines are like others that blared in major publications just three weeks ago, as Republican Senate candidates and their allied party organizations and political action committees opened up a 2-to-1 margin over Democrats in early September advertising spending, and booked...
Matt Lewis & the News(letter)
Playback speed × Share post Share post at current time Share from 0:00 0:00 / The Question That Wasn’t a Gotcha: Hawks, Hawkeyes, and The Schmittification of the GOP Eric Schmitt’s Jack Smith faceplant wasn’t just a mistake. It was a snapshot of a party that can’t run from Trump can’t talk about grocery prices, and can’t win the midterms. During today’s Substack LIVE conversation with Bill Scher, we discussed: Sen. Eric Schmitt’s attempted perjury trap on Jack Smith. The Atlanta Hawks vs.
Why the Democrats look like having a big win in November • Bill Scher
There are lots of reasons to believe Democrats are about to crush the midterm elections. Donald Trump’s average job approval is below 40 per cent, about five points lower than it was in the 2018 midterms, which were deemed a “Blue Wave.” (In the US blue denotes the Democratic Party and red the Republican.) His authoritarian antics continue to dominate media coverage, as does seemingly corrupt behaviour by him and his family.
Why Democrats Should Be Most Worried About Troy Jackson (And It’s Not the Consultants)
If the final election outcome reflected the average of polls sampled in the third and fourth weeks of September (not including any internal polls from campaigns or affiliated political action committees), Democrats would cede none of their own U.S. Senate seats and flip North Carolina, Ohio, Kansas, Texas, Iowa, and Maine—two more than they need to take control of the upper chamber. However, Democrats can’t be cocky, since most poll margins are slim.
This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave Is Probably Coming
There are lots of reasons to believe Democrats are about to crush the midterm elections. Donald Trump’s average job approval is below 40 percent, about 5 points lower than it was in the 2018 midterms, which were deemed a “Blue Wave.” His authoritarian antics continue to dominate media coverage, as does seemingly corrupt behavior from him and his family.
If You Don’t Like Polls, Follow the Money
Debate is roiling among political operatives and observers over whether the midterm elections will result in a Blue Wave or a Blue Trickle. This is not a mere “horse race” question whose answer can wait until the votes are counted. Candidates need to understand how deep voter anger runs and where it is directed to judge whether any last-minute recalibrations are necessary, and parties’ campaign arms need to know where to send their resources.
The Supreme Court Still Works as the Founders Intended
The John Roberts Court, in my opinion, is the worst Supreme Court since the Roger Taney Court, which gave us the Dred Scott decision.
Never Forgetting 9/11 Means Learning Lessons
The 25th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks has passed, marked by solemn remembrances and harrowing footage. Fond memories of President George W. Bush lifting America’s spirits atop the World Trade Center rubble through a bullhorn and with a World Series first pitch strike at Yankee Stadium leavened the commemoration’s sadness. The words “never forget” rang throughout the day.
Will It Be a Blue Wave?
As the midterm elections enter their post-Labor Day general election phase, all signs still point to Democrats taking the House, which requires a net gain of three seats. But we can’t know whether they will ride a Blue Wave that would give them a sizable House majority along with control of the Senate. What would constitute a “wave election”? Four years ago for the Washington Monthly, I explored that question, because no consensus definition exists.
Washington Monthly’s 2026 College Guide and Rankings
If you want to know what really counts in higher education, look at the Monthly’s rankings—you’ll find some welcome surprises. Arne Duncan, former Secretary of Education Welcome to the Washington Monthly’s annual College Guide and Rankings, where we rate schools based on what they do for the country. It’s our answer to U.S. News & World Report, which relies on crude and easily manipulated measures of wealth, exclusivity, and prestige. Click here to read our methodology.
Amy Acton Won’t Debate. It’s Worked Before
Soon after Ohio’s Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy publicly accepted two debate invitations and called on his Democratic opponent Amy Acton to do the same, she did not oblige. Instead, her campaign released a “Statement on Debates” which declared, “Dr. Acton’s focus is on talking with Ohioans, not platforming a scam artist…” It’s a hair short of a flat declaration that Acton will never debate Ramaswamy, but only that. Cue the predictable reactions.
How to Build a Big Tent
The debate around Hasan Piker’s place in the Democratic Party is just the latest chapter in a long story of Democrats grappling with how wide to build its big tent. To win electoral majorities, how tolerant should the Democratic Party be of intolerance?
On Fox News, El-Sayed Bravely Defended Gender-Affirming Care, Then Took a Weird, Wrong Turn
To go on Fox News and defend transgender children, as the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed did on Monday, is no small act of bravery and deserves enormous praise. El-Sayed stuck to his principles on gender-affirming health care in a prime-time interview during which he moderated positions on other hot-button issues.
How 2026 Is Not Like 2006
On Sunday, The New York Times’ Carl Hulse penned a comparison of the 2026 and 2006 midterm elections, as the latter produced a Blue Wave so big that Democrats took control of the House and Senate. Hulse summed up the similarities: “The war in the Middle East is increasingly unpopular. So is the president as his numbers dip perilously — a common development in the sixth year of a presidency. Congressional Republicans are embroiled in unsavory scandals.
Matt Lewis & the News(letter)
On this morning’s Substack LIVE conversation, The Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher joins me to talk about: The controversy over Sen. Jon Ossoff’s referencing of Trump aide Natalie Harp, and just how much we should read into the very personal notes she sent to Donald Trump A new survey suggests Marco Rubio has a better chance of defeating top Democrats than JD Vance. Is this much ado about nothing?
El-Sayed May Be Winning. But He Should Run Like He’s Losing
The Michigan “pollercoaster” continues. After a Democratic U.S. Senate primary in which polls wrongly projected a landslide win for Abdul El-Sayed, the start of the general election features wildly divergent poll data. In the days before the August 4 primary, none of the four general election trial heats released had El-Sayed—who did win the primary by a hair—leading Republican nominee Mike Rogers. And the first poll sampled after the primary, sponsored by Fox News, had Rogers up 4 points.
Americans Like Moderate Politicians and Progressive Policies, But Not Socialism
The Democratic Party’s big tent has widened this summer as five U.S. House candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America won primaries in safely Democratic districts and almost surely will join DSA-endorsed incumbents Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib.
Should We Ever Trust Polls Again?
The credibility of polling took a massive hit this month, as polling averages were off the mark by double-digits in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary and Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Internal Polls Flopped in Michigan and Hawaii. How Will They Do in Minnesota and Wisconsin?
In a mid-July column, I detailed how internal polls, combined with scarce independent polling, warped perceptions of Graham Platner’s electoral resilience in Maine’s Senate race before he bowed out. I further raised an eyebrow at the flurry of internal polls showing fat leads for Abdul El-Sayed over Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, when other springtime polls depicted a much closer race.
To Mend Fences in Michigan, El-Sayed Should Stop Talking About Israel
During a Wednesday morning press availability, following a divisive primary, the newly crowned Democratic nominee to represent Michigan in the United States Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, wisely stressed party unity: The things that unite us are so much bigger than the things that divide us. … I know not everybody is going to agree with me on everything. That’s not how this works.
Democratic Voters Are Boiling Mad at the Democratic Establishment, and It’s Ridiculous
On the heels of a late burst of poll data projecting a victory for the left-wing anti-Democratic establishment candidate Abdul El-Sayed in today’s Michigan Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports that the campaigns of El-Sayed and other like-minded candidates are not strictly fueled by card-carrying members of the Democratic Socialists of America: Rank-and-file Democratic voters who once naturally inclined toward establishment-backed candidates are instead supporting —...
How Left Will Democrats Go In 2028? That Depends on 2026
Back in Spring 2019, conventional wisdom held that the Democratic electorate was pining for ideological purity, and the party’s moderate era was over. A few months earlier, a socialist bartender from Queens named Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shocked the political world by defeating a longtime Democratic House incumbent who was in line to succeed Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. Senator Bernie Sanders had announced his second presidential bid and quickly gained momentum in the polls.
The DSA Platform Would Destroy American Democracy
The next campaign finance report from the Republican National Committee may need to report an in-kind contribution from the Democratic Socialists of America. Over the weekend, DSA Co-Chair Megan Romer went on Fox News Sunday with Shannon Bream to tout the group’s “Workers Deserve More” platform.
Abdul El-Sayed’s Slippery Argument About Israel’s Right to Exist
“The question about Israel isn’t about the theoretical right to exist of a country that exists. The question about Israel is, do they have a right to our tax dollars?” This is how, during a podcast interview with Pod Save America’s Alex Wagner, Abdul El-Sayed waded into the thicket of Middle East politics.
Jon Ossoff Is Proving Democrats Don’t Need to Punch Left
In response to a poll finding that swing voters by a two-to-one margin have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, last week Thomas B.
Michigan Democratic Primary Preview! The State of the Democrats Post-Platner (with Bill Scher)
Circle August 4th on your calendar: Michigan is now the number one marquee primary matchup I’m watching. Mallory McMorrow is out of the race as of a couple of weeks ago, and what’s left is a head-to-head contest between the Democratic establishment — or at least what’s left of it — and the insurgent progressive movement. Yes, friends, it’s Haley Stevens versus Abdul El-Sayed, and it’s set to be a knockout fight. This really represents the first live test for the current Democratic Party.
The Platner Collapse Is a Cautionary Tale About Polling
Graham Platner’s controversial social media history was first reported on October 16, and he revealed the existence of his tattoo with Nazi origins on October 20. In the following days, two polls sampling Maine Democratic Senate primary voters were released. They told completely different stories. The University of New Hampshire poll, taken largely before the tattoo news broke, had the rookie candidate Platner leading the incumbent Governor Janet Mills by an astounding 34 points.
If Graham Platner Won’t Quit, Democrats Need to Quit Him
If you are a Democrat, the logic of “Vote Blue No Matter Who” is close to impeccable. Any Democratic candidate for President or Senate, even if not especially charismatic or competent, at the very least wouldn’t nominate or approve right-wing judges hellbent on rolling back constitutional rights. But there are exceptions to any rule. And being credibly accused of rape is one of them.
What Trump Has to Say on America’s 250th Birthday Won’t Top Coolidge and Ford
The history of semicentennial American presidential oratory is limited, but Donald Trump’s Saturday semiquincentennial remarks are destined to mark a low point in the canon.
The Fight in the Democratic Party Is Not Left vs. Center, But Left vs. Left
After 15-term Denver-area U.S. Representative Diana DeGette lost her Democratic primary to the 29-year-old Democratic Socialists of America member Melat Kiros, the socialist streamer Hasan Piker, drink in hand, crowed, “Thank you for not retiring Diana DeGette … and hand select[ing] your replacement, which would’ve been a cookie-cutter neoliberal faux progressive Democrat.” He threw in some advice to Democratic incumbents: “Stop fighting the left.” But the candidates Piker has been cheering...
Mamdani’s Movement Interests May Collide with His Mayoral Interests
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani audaciously backed left-wing U.S. House primary challengers to two Democratic incumbents and a third candidate whose main opponent was backed by a retiring incumbent. At the same time, he successfully pressured City Councilor and fellow socialist Chi Ossé to abandon his campaign against the Democratic Leader of the House, Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn, by convincing the city’s chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America [DSA] to withhold any endorsement.
Any Iran Deal Will Fail Without a Two-State Solution
The first paragraph of the Memorandum of Understanding between the Iranian government and the Donald Trump administration declares “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations” in Lebanon, foresees a “final deal” that confirms “the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” This was strange because the United States was not fighting a war in Lebanon.
As Threat Level Reaches “Highest It’s Ever Been,” Trump Sidelines Key Counterterror Program
Once upon a time, if Homeland Security warned that the terrorist threat level was the “highest it’s ever been,” government officials would scramble to assure the public that everything was being done.
The Iran War’s Biggest Loser? Definitely Netanyahu
Donald Trump’s war of choice against Iran has been a strategic failure.
The 2026 Kukula Award Winners
The Washington Monthly proudly announces the winners of the 2026 Kukula Award for Excellence in Nonfiction Book Reviewing—the only journalism prize dedicated to highlighting and encouraging exemplary reviews of serious, public affairs-focused books. Now in its seventh year, the award honors the memory of Kukula Kapoor Glastris, the magazine’s longtime and beloved books editor.
Remember When We Used to Take World War III Seriously?
When I was 11 years old, I wasn’t one of the 100 million people who watched the apocalyptic movie The Day After when it aired on ABC in November of 1983. I’m pretty sure I was tuned into CBS, watching Vera the waitress get married on Alice. But the societal impact of the movie’s depiction of nuclear war and radioactive fallout in the American heartland was inescapable, not just to a child but to the White House.
The Defeat of Spencer Pratt Is a Defeat of AI Slop
Last week, Republican TV personality and Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt appeared to be one of the two candidates poised to advance to the November general election. Time spotlighted how “he and his supporters employed provocative, and often effective, AI ads to spread his message.” But yesterday, major media outlets declared Pratt the loser, with two Democrats advancing to the general election: the incumbent Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman.
The Washington Monthly Announces Finalists for 2026 Kukula Award Book Review Prize
The Washington Monthly proudly announces the finalists for the 2026 Kukula Award for Excellence in Nonfiction Book Reviewing—the only journalism prize dedicated to highlighting and encouraging reviews of serious, public affairs-focused books. Now in its seventh year, the award honors the memory of Kukula Kapoor Glastris, the magazine’s longtime and beloved books editor. Two prize winners will be announced on Monday, June 15.
Democrats Need to Decide Whether Character Matters
When the latest allegations about Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner were published in The New York Times, involving on-the-record testimony from ex-girlfriends about “volatile and ‘toxic’ relationships that were … demeaning to women and, in at least one case, even physically threatening,” several prominent supporters immediately defended him.
Matt Lewis & the News(letter)
It’s not easy to survive as an independent journalist who tells the truth as we see it. If you enjoy these conversations, please consider becoming a paid subscriber today! During today’s Substack LIVE conversation, Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher and I break down the chaotic Maine Democratic Senate primary one week before voters decide.
Maine Voters, It’s Not Too Late to Save Democrats from Graham Platner
“To be clear, it’s the voters of Maine who thus far have chosen Graham Platner,” said Kate Bedingfield, a former Biden Administration aide, on CNN yesterday. But to be clear, Maine voters haven’t chosen anybody yet. Not one vote has been counted for Platner in his entire life. While early voting has already begun, the Maine primary is on June 9. And over the weekend, Maine voters were given plenty of reasons to deny Platner the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
If You Called for Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales to be Expelled, Then You Should Impeach Donald Trump
New lows are getting old in Donald Trump’s second term. The latest frontier of cruelty is Trump’s Justice Department reportedly opening a perjury investigation into the 82-year-old E. Jean Carroll, the woman he sexually abused. Note that I don’t have to say “allegedly” sexually abused, because a jury has already found Trump liable for the sexual abuse, which involved forced vaginal penetration with his fingers.
Janet Mills Should Unsuspend Her U.S. Senate Campaign
Ever since Maine Governor Janet Mills suspended her campaign for U.S. Senate on April 30, Graham Platner, the military veteran and oyster farmer who has consistently led in primary and general election polls, has been described as the presumptive Democratic Party nominee. But polls aren’t votes. And on June 9, the day of Maine’s primary, Democratic voters deserve to have a say before rolling the dice on a candidate who has been a controversy magnet.
Matt Lewis & the News(letter)
Playback speed × Share post Share post at current time Share from 0:00 0:00 / Transcript Dems SURGING in New Polls Despite DNC Autopsy Mess Bill Scher breaks down Trump’s plunging approval ratings, the looming Democratic wave in the midterms, Republican civil war over primaries, and why the party committees matter less than ever. It’s not easy to survive as an independent journalist who tells the truth as we see it.
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