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Articles by Brodie Mackey
Mackey: Packers Welcome Market Confusion
Mackey: Packers Welcome Market Confusion Brodie CBP (CBP) Last week began with talks of recession, war and unemployment. What would follow was mass confusion in the market place. Cattle feeders fearful the run was over added cattle with intent to capture remaining value, and packers welcomed the weakness. The market began in earnest when basis traders found $193 per cwt offers appealing. Packers would spread the trade North and South establishing the lower rhetoric.
Mackey: Packers Manage Their Harvest Pace
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Mackey: Softer Futures Provides Basis Temptations
Mackey: Softer Futures Provides Basis Temptations Brodie CBP (CBP) A weaker beef cutout last Tuesday softened futures. Southern cattle feeders tempted with basis would roll cattle $2 lower at 188 per cwt. The Northern cowboys wouldn’t go so easy. On Wednesday, after lower bids were refused, steady money would blanket showlists. Trade in the North at $198 cwt live took the majority of the cattle. Dressed trade stumbled slightly, mostly moving at $312 per cwt.
Mackey: Looking Ahead After a Long Weekend
Mackey: Looking Ahead After a Long Weekend Brodie CBP (CBP) With the long weekend behind them, cattlemen will look to get back to business this week. Last week’s market was slow and quiet and it with little activity until Friday and then evening until the bulk of the activity even occurred. The South would roll at $190 cwt. Had the packer pushed the trade on Wednesday, cattle feeders would have passed the offer as steady money.
Mackey: Packers Lack Conviction
Mackey: Packers Lack Conviction Last week’s cash cattle market was lackluster. Albeit higher in most areas, packers lacked conviction. It would be late Friday before most of the trade would be sorted out with 52,000 head cash and grids combined in the total weekly report. The Southern market would see the bulk of the activity. Trading mostly at $190 cwt live the market would see good volume and good clean ups.
Mackey: Feeders Pushing Market into New Territory
Mackey: Feeders Pushing Market into New Territory . (CBP) The cash market continues to show its resiliency. Each week cattlemen seem to grab for new ground pushing the market into new territory. Most of the ground was made up in the South. Late into Friday, feeders were passing bids of $188 and $189 cwt live. Eventually, 2 bidders would surface at $190 cwt live and another at $191.
Mackey: Lack of Competition Ripples Through Market
Mackey: Lack of Competition Ripples Through Market . (CBP) Last week’s story was about competition, or the lack thereof. As the week progressed, the story of one packer extremely out of position would ripple through the marketplace. However, the needs of the competition wouldn’t be great enough to keep them honest. The result was a $185 cwt market south and $190 cwt live and $301 cwt dressed market in the North.
Mackey: Weaker Futures, Headlines Push Cash Lower
Mackey: Weaker Futures, Headlines Push Cash Lower . (CBP) The cash cattle market slid for the first time in 6 weeks. Pressured by headlines, a weaker board would provide incentive for the South to leak $1 off the market, at mostly $186 cwt live. This would establish the tone for the North and the trade was on. $190 cwt live and $301 cwt dressed would trade a bulk of the cattle.
Mackey: Week-long Struggle to Steady
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Mackey: Packers Step Up Bids as Showlists Shrink
Mackey: Packers Step Up Bids as Showlists Shrink . (CBP) It’s been a minute since my last entry. During that time Bird has been the word. Nervous about consumer confidence, industry experts announced they’d be testing product. This announcement sent the market deeper into volatility. However, on Wednesday much needed news would surface. The samples were negative and free of any concern. Packers sprung to action forcing a trade late and at higher money. The North would see the first of trade.
Mackey: Feeders Continue to Face Headwinds
Mackey: Feeders Continue to Face Headwinds . (CBP) Cattle futures have been in somewhat of a reset mode. Despite the negative headwinds, cattle feeders continue to show solid support at the cash market. Early week sales of $187 live and $297 dressed would gather the majority of cattle last week. The North continues to see multiple bidders present in the market, though all sticking to their own buying agendas, to keep out of one another’s road and to keep pressure on the market.
Mackey: March Madness Brings Record Cash Prices
Mackey: March Madness Brings Record Cash Prices . (CBP) If cattle feeders didn’t believe in March Madness before, they do now after last week’s trade. Negotiated cash prices set new highs in all feeding regions but, meanwhile, futures, harvest and the wholesale cutout would all suffer losses. Packers have been bound-and-determined to keep the lid on this market. Reduced harvest hours and relocating cattle have not kept them from scrambling for inventory.
Mackey: Packers Struggle to Preserve Margins
Mackey: Packers Struggle to Preserve Margins . (CBP) Packers have been in full margin preservation mode for some time. Idling back the harvest has successfully pushed wholesale beef higher, but that strategy has struggled to control the market. The harvest at 583,000 is 16,000 head smaller than the week previous and our smallest non-holiday slaughter. The Choice box is now at $307 and $15 off its lows. Yet, the cash market printed to new highs late week.
Mackey: South Leads the Way Higher, North Trades at Par
Mackey: South Leads the Way Higher, North Trades at Par . (CBP) A pre-report flurry in the futures markets encouraged the cash market to trade $3 to 4 higher than the previous week. Southern feeders saw the biggest price increase from trading at just $179 cwt live a week ago to $183 cwt live last week. At least two bidders were willing to take on inventory at the higher money. The Northern market was slower to develop, many looked to separate themselves from the Southern trade asking higher money.
Mackey: Futures Heat Warms Cattle Feeders Resolve
Mackey: Futures Heat Warms Cattle Feeders Resolve . (CBP) Late week futures strength was just the push cattle feeders needed to hold the market steady, the week ending Feb. 16. Sales were sparked in the South by a red futures market and limited bids. When it was all said and done, 27,000 head of cash and grids combined would change hands. After the early business in the South concluded at $179-180 cwt. live, Northern feeders were holding show lists looking for answers.
Mackey: A Good Win for Cattle Feeders
Mackey: A Good Win for Cattle Feeders . (CBP) The National total of 22,437 head cash and grids combined Friday afternoon was still light. By the numbers, packers would need a few thousand more to end the week in comfort and cattle feeders knew it. A late-night flurry of trades would end the week with trade at higher money. The South concluded business at $182 cwt live, up from $179 cwt the week before. Meanwhile, the North sat on bids of $180 and $285 dressed.
Mackey: Cattle Higher as Packers Show Their Inventory Hand
Mackey: Cattle Higher as Packers Show Their Inventory Hand . (CBP) With depleted inventory and more normalized harvest schedules, packers entered the market in a big way igniting higher asking prices and signaling their inventory position. Trying to secure inventory and hobble the market, a few packers began early-week with “market top offers,” before bidding $1 higher with initial bids. Feeders would pass and work the week with newly found leverage.
Mackey: Feeders, Packers Look to Better Days Ahead
Mackey: Feeders, Packers Look to Better Days Ahead . (CBP) Dealing with performance losses, worsening pen conditions and steady to lower packer bids, cash cattle traders were devoid of motivation. By sundown Friday the National volume sat at a measly 20,726 head cash and grids combined. Many will look for that number to improve with a few cattle that moved after the report deadline and the small Saturday activity that took place. The South would see activity at $173 cwt live.
Mackey: Weather Produces a Disappointing Harvest
Mackey: Weather Produces a Disappointing Harvest . (CBP) Severe winter weather across cattle feeding country reduced weekly harvest and damaged feeding performance. Cattle feeders will seek higher prices this week. When it was all said and done the packer’s final tally last week was 61,283 head cash and grids combined. That’s 23,932 head fewer than the previous week’s total. Winter weather has impacted much of cattle feeding country, some areas more severe than others.
Mackey: Weather Provides Motivation to Settle for Steady
Mackey: Weather Provides Motivation to Settle for Steady . (CBP) A year ago there was an abundance of commentary on weathered cattle and tough pen conditions, and how at times it would be the motivation for sellers to take the market. It’s eerie how not much has changed in that sense. With a harvest under control and being tightly managed by the packer, many feeders ultimately settled for steady to keep cattle moving ahead of the weather outlook. The biggest moves were made in the North.
Mackey: A Good Week for Competition
Mackey: A Good Week for Competition . (CBP) Cattle feeders worked to end the year on a positive note. Those who clung to their asking prices and made it to Friday saw a $2 higher market compared to the previous week. Another good week of competition, at least three bidders in the marketplace in multiple regions. When it was all said and done 102,000 cattle, cash and grid combined, would be the packer’s tally. That’s 15,000 more than the previous week. The South saw early week trade at $172 cwt live.
Mackey: Feeders Push the Tide Higher Throughout Week
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Mackey: Feeders Win Late-Week Battle
Mackey: Feeders Win Late-Week Battle . (CBP) A lower market sure, but establishing a late week trade, working bids higher off initial offers, and higher futures— is a battle won by the cattle feeders. Most regions saw increased competition with multiple offers. Late week bids of $170 per cwt. would eventually trade the volume of the cattle. Look for Monday’s reports to be more accurate. As it sits, the packer has purchased 61,000 fewer cattle when compared to the week previous.
Mackey:
Mackey: . (CBP) Harvest finished the week at 635,000 head after the Saturday kill was added. Harvest for the year has been 4.7% off last year’s pace and there has been continued talk of additional Saturdays at multiple plants as we work into the holidays. Perhaps that indicates improved margins for packers and cattle feeders are hopeful this leads to more buyers entering the market with larger purchasing needs. From North to South last week’s market was $3 to $4 lower from the previous week.
Mackey: Futures Rout Gives Packers Cheaper Inventory
Mackey: Futures Rout Gives Packers Cheaper Inventory . (CBP) The rout in cattle futures continues to pressure cash cattle. With each break the cash marketer loses ground and eventually capitulates at lower money. Last week’s market traded primarily at $174-175 per cwt., $3 lower compared to the previous week. The South, tempted by basis, saw early week sales at $175 cwt. live. As the week continued to unravel, more sales would occur.
Mackey: COF Relieves Some Anxiety, But Packers Throttle Back Harvest
Mackey: COF Relieves Some Anxiety, But Packers Throttle Back Harvest . (CBP) Cattle feeders can breathe a little easier now that Friday is over. Many anxiously awaited the release of USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed report after last month’s debacle. A wide range of analysts’ estimates likely influenced some uncertainty in the week’s market, cash and futures alike. Placements landing 3% under the estimates should give the report a friendly lean.
Mackey: Steady Leaves Many Cattle on Showlists
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Mackey: Ignoring Early-week Noise
Mackey: Ignoring Early-week Noise . (CBP) By now cattle marketers are no strangers to volatility. Four-dollar price spreads are becoming the new normal and hedged cattle feeders early week capitalized on a strong basis, $1-3 per cwt. lower. Those that ignored the early noise would trade steady by later week. The South would see good clean up at $185 per cwt., steady to firmer there. The North saw the biggest trade range from $183 per cwt. to mostly $186 per cwt. and $290 per cwt. dressed.
Mackey: Packers Seeking Inventory Pushes Market Higher
Mackey: Packers Seeking Inventory Pushes Market Higher . (CBP) By end of day Friday the industry traded 129,902 head. Basically, par numbers with the previous week The trade was done mostly at $2 higher. The South would start trade at $184 per cwt. Uncomfortable with previous inventory, at least one packer reportedly pushed to $185 cwt and eventually the rest followed. Meanwhile, in the North, trade was just as active.
Mackey: Turbulent Futures Incentivized Packers
Mackey: Turbulent Futures Incentivized Packers . (CBP) In what seemed like a mirror image of the previous week’s trade, cattle markets moved $1 lower. The turbulent futures market incentivized packers to get creative with lower bids. The South was the first to trade on the futures big break. Hedged sellers captured basis and sold cattle for $182 cwt live. Multiple packers participated in the trade, probably more evidence of the currentness in the South.
Mackey: Packers Apply the Brakes
Mackey: Packers Apply the Brakes . (CBP) As expected, packers put the brakes on the harvest and the market slows. This came as no surprise to cattle feeders as early week expectations for harvest was to land between 610,000 to 615,000 head and right on cue Friday’s harvest prints at 612,000 head. This was down 13,000 head from the previous week. The industry looks to have another week of slowed production in store as the packer looks to reverse the struggling cutout.
Mackey: Late-week Win
Mackey: Late-week Win As the futures continued to grab new ground throughout the week, cattle feeders continued to find confidence in higher asking prices. 30 minutes ago
Mackey: Packers Grudgingly Pay Up
Mackey: Packers Grudgingly Pay Up . (CBP) Packers reluctantly paid higher money last week. Spurred by a stronger board, cattle feeders stuck with their asking prices and saw the market reverse the previous weeks’ trend. The South had the most notable improvement on the week with the widespread $180 per cwt. bid by multiple packers jumpstarting the market and moving volume. Meanwhile, the Northern market was slower to get going.
Mackey: Packers Gain Leverage
Mackey: Packers Gain Leverage Packers narrowed the North-South spread last week and through a series of factors including the weather, have seen the marketing leverage swing in their favor. 57 minutes ago The Front Gate: Data Reveals Passion America’s beef producers are optimistic about the future, and the state of today’s industry is strong. Those are two highlights from the 2023 Drovers State of the Industry survey and reported in this special section.
Mackey: Packer Head Fakes Prove Profitable
Mackey: Packer Head Fakes Prove Profitable . (CBP) Packers added some early week head fakes to their arsenal to keep the market on its heels. When one-dollar lower bids were passed Monday/Tuesday—packers backed bids up even further. Feeders eager to move cattle, with heat in the forecast and the appearance of limited needs from the shorter kills, sacrificed some ground for a schedule. The North moved first. Early business was done at $294 per cwt. dressed and $188 per cwt live.
Mackey: Standoff Produces Payoff
Mackey: Standoff Produces Payoff Cattle feeders were rewarded in last week's standoff with higher prices in all regions. Packers will continue to slow harvest rates in an effort to hold the market in check. 27 minutes ago
Mackey: Cowboys Stick to Asks, Trading Limited
Mackey: Cowboys Stick to Asks, Trading Limited . (CBP) All eyes in cattle country will be on Monday’s USDA Price Report for last week's negotiated cash numbers. As of Friday, the industry traded just 30,000 head cash and grids combined or about 80,000 head fewer than the same time period a week ago. Struggling with extremely high heat with indexes of more than 116 degrees— cattle feeders found themselves focusing their time on the betterment of the cattle than the market.
Mackey: Packers Aggressive Seeking the ‘Right Kind’
Mackey: Packers Aggressive Seeking the ‘Right Kind’ . (CBP) The July cattle marketing period has been everything but ordinary. For most it will not be forgotten. The tightness of supplies continue to be leveraged by the cattle feeders, competition on front-enders have pushed the market higher almost every week. This past week was no different. After several weeks of marginal volumes packers entered the market more aggressive.
Mackey: Are Showlists Large Enough to Keep Packers Comfortable?
Mackey: Are Showlists Large Enough to Keep Packers Comfortable? . (CBP) The South was the first to blink last week at $178 per cwt. Cattle owners found the basis and steady money offers too hard to pass up. It wasn’t until Packers began to call the cattle out the following day their true needs were realized. Word of this spread to feedyards in the North and traders stiffened up. Week to date Nebraska volume is 10,896 and 13,204 grids. Most of the business was done from $181-185 per cwt.
Mackey: Aggressive Packers Give Up Some Inventory
Mackey: Aggressive Packers Give Up Some Inventory . (CBP) Cash cattle trade finished last week steady. The South was the first to see activity at $178. As the North continued to remain priced at their $185, one major was reported to reenter the Southern market, buying the second cut of cattle to freight out of the region. By late week trade would develop in the North on a select few, mostly at $182 cwt live and $290 cwt dressed with reports of more money paid on beta frees.
Mackey: Packers Try to Keep Lid on Prices
Mackey: Packers Try to Keep Lid on Prices . (CBP) Packers desperate to keep their grasp on the cattle market looked to their inventory to keep the pressure on cash prices. Cattle feeders reluctantly traded lower. The North, unlike most weeks, was the first to see activity. With the onset of the first real dose of hot weather cattle feeders encouraged to open up space looked to packers with the quickest delivery dates.
Mackey: Feeders Operating as ‘Market Makers’
Mackey: Feeders Operating as ‘Market Makers’ . (CBP) In this time of great leverage cattle feeders are finally discovering what it means to be a market maker and not a market taker. Feeders are enjoying the opportunity to market cattle earlier, lighter, and higher than what their expectations were when the cattle were placed on feed. Meanwhile, packers are being forced to operate in a cash market with fewer captives at their disposal. The increased competition has pushed markets to new highs.
Mackey: Show Lists Will Remain Tight and Green
Mackey: Show Lists Will Remain Tight and Green . (CBP) Packers are experiencing an unprepared for shortage in the supply of market-ready cattle and the result has been a rocket to new cash highs. The South saw trade at mostly $180 per cwt., with late reports of $182 peer cwt. with more trading volume over the weekend. The North would see a wide range with most of the action at $187 to $190 per cwt., and $292 per cwt. dressed.
Mackey: A Bigger Trade, A Bigger Spread
Mackey: A Bigger Trade, A Bigger Spread . (CBP) A bigger trade and a bigger spread. A few weeks back I commented on the North’s ability to negotiate a $6 per cwt. premium to the South. This week feeders were able to widen that spread to mostly $9 and in some spots $14! The North maintains more buyers with fewer turn-in cattle, as a result their market trades primarily at $180-182 per cwt. live and $285-286 per cwt. dressed. Meanwhile, the South moves cattle at $170-171 per cwt.
Mackey: Tight Supplies Leave Some Packers Searching For Inventory
Mackey: Tight Supplies Leave Some Packers Searching For Inventory . (CBP) On Friday, week-to-date the industry traded 63,049 cash cattle and 38,335 grids. Off Friday’s report that’s 12,000 fewer than a week ago. This was done at mostly steady money in the South at $170 cwt and higher in the North with a primary range of $176-180 cwt, live and $280 dressed. The current front-end supply and winter delayed calf-feds have the northern packers stretched for inventory.
Mackey: More Pounds in the Pipeline
Mackey: More Pounds in the Pipeline . (CBP) Right on point. Packers opened up their harvest for the first big weekend of holidays. As the harvest paced opened up, the cattle market came up for air. For many weeks the sub 630,000 head chain speed allowed packers to gain control of the market pushing up the price for their product and building an inventory of cash cattle.
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