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Articles by Bruce Mabley
Canada Takes the World Stage at Davos
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos on January 20th marks a watershed in the post-war economic world order. Riddled with sectoral US tariffs and fearful of potential draconian trade concessions in the upcoming renegotiation of the North American free trade pact (CUSMA), Canada has taken to the world stage to say the obvious – that most countries, except the superpowers, can no longer count on global economic multilateralism as a cornerstone of their prosperity.
Canada’s Pearl Harbour - OpEd
‘The only thing to fear, is fear itself’. — FDR The November 2024 election of Donald Trump has set in motion a sea change in international relations around the world. This has been done not by nailing radical new religious theses on wooden church doors like Luther or implementing the post-World War 2 Marshall Plan to save Europe from Stalin and the menace of Communism.
Book Review: Shanghai Demimondaine
‘…bright, vivacious, intelligent and not of a particularly high moral standard.’ Desmond Alexander of the Commonwealth Investigation Branch describing his informant called Lorraine. Shanghai Demimondaine is a book about a woman and how she dealt with the avatars of 20th century history in a man’s world. Her main cross to bear in the early days is the knowledge that her birth took place out of wedlock.
Canada’s Double Referendum Challenge: Alberta and Quebec’s Political Future
As Québec and Alberta edge closer to potential independence referenda, Canada faces a renewed crisis of national unity. Regionalism, fuelled by economic pressures and political alienation, threatens to reshape the federation’s future. For years, the question of the future of Québec as either in or out of the Canadian federation has been hotly debated. The federal election on 28 April did nothing to address the issue.
Tariffs, Tories, and Trudeau’s Successor: Canada’s Election Amid American Aggression
As Trump’s tariffs send economic shockwaves north, Canada faces a political reckoning. The election revealed a fractured federation struggling to form a common front in the face of escalating US pressure. The 45th Canadian federal election took place on 28 April lasting 45 days. The result is a Liberal Party (LPC) victory headed by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, former chief of the Banks of Canada and England.
Canada’s ‘Chemin de Damas’
The political and economic fallout in Canada following Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs in 2024–25 highlights how his actions have disrupted trade, strained US-Canada relations, and reshaped Canadian domestic politics. As a policy, the tariffs have destabilised traditional alliances, fuelled internal political upheaval, and forced Canada to reassess its economic dependence on the United States. Canadians are angry.
Canada’s Trial By Fire - OpEd
“Nations that went down fighting rose again, but those who surrendered tamely were finished.” — Winston Churchill The 2024 election of Donald Trump as the American President for the next four years signals momentous shifts in the political and economic situation in North America. Few in this country have analyzed what it really means, probably out of a fear and loathing mentality of ‘what is coming next’.
Oedipus Rex Revisited - OpEd
It now appears possible that the next President of the United States of America may well be Donald Trump. His return to the White House amidst court cases both pending and ongoing can even be evaluated as probable if one has confidence in the polling results in key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and others.
A Remembrance Day Message - OpEd
Remembering the sacrifice our war veterans is usually reserved for November 11th of every year. It is a time to remember the sacrifice of brave men and women who fought for their country. In World War 2, these heroes fought to free other peoples from slavery and the scourge of Nazism. In most cases, these soldiers did not even know who they were liberating. In North America, far from the war fronts, most soldiers did not have as their primary motivation the protection of their home country.
Gaza Again - OpEd
When will Israeli governments learn that violence will never settle the Israelo-Palestinian dispute. Certain sections of Hamas are just as unreflective and irrational. Both are paving the way to newer conflicts and creating insecurity for their own citizens. Given the massive imbalance of means on the ground, one would have thought that an Israeli effort to make a ceasefire would have stopped some of the present killing and violence.
Do Not Get Sick In Canada - OpEd
Most perplexing is the positive image that some foreigners have about the Canadian health system. That is until you get sick here and require medical support and advice. The positive image is soon dispelled thanks to excessive wait times in clinics, closed emergency wards, unresponsive queries and overcrowded hospitals ad mare usque ad mare.
A Message To Scotland About Québec Independence - OpEd
Let me begin by saying that throughout my life, I have believed that politics is not a science, but an art form. This is perhaps a fool’s paradise of political idealism but books taught me about freedom, not people. Such is the nature of bourgeois society. I was lucky enough to be born into a rich family and could afford education.
Assistance For Haiti: Canada Needs To Engage - OpEd
Haiti is again in serious domestic trouble. The American President will visit briefly Canada this week and ask for our help in Haiti. We should give it gladly since it can only make the situation better. Biden is handing us a place in the sun in our shared sphere of influence in the Caribbean. In a geo-political sense, Haiti may be the key to forestalling the inexorable threat from Beijing in the Caribbean basin and wean Cuba off Russia.
The Musings Of A Rogue Diplomat - OpEd
The articles found in ‘Canada’s Rogue Diplomat’ span two continents but prospective readers may wonder what they all have in common. I harken back to this question which is recurrent amongst some of my students. What is the Syrian conflict all about? Until I wrote these lines, I did not realize that the answer to that question was the same answer that any reader will look for throughout the chapters of the book.
The New North American Cogito - OpEd
Health, Justice and Education. These are the pillars of any viable free and democratic society. They are the offspring of a political revolution in America that occurred several centuries ago. This revolution, and its societal creations, is now in peril. In some parts of North America, there was no revolution, only stagnation under the British boot. Scottish, French and Irish farmers rose up in 1837 to challenge British tyranny much like their American brothers and sisters some 60 years before.
The Ukrainian Mousetrap - OpEd
Most expert observers agree that the Ukraine war has resulted in much of a military stalemate. The Russians appear to have the numerical advantage whilst the Ukrainians, up to now, can count on firm Western military and diplomatic support. Recent statements by President Biden in Kiev and Vladimir Putin in Moscow have convinced a section of the media that any peace agreement is a long way off.
The Québec Election of 2022 - Australian Institute of International Affairs
The Québec election results of October can be interpreted first as a resounding vote of confidence in the Coalition Avenir Party for its handling of the pandemic and an illustration of the overwhelming strength of nationalism in Québec. The Québec election of 2022 was supposed to put to rest the independence issue and confirm the end of ideological confrontation between the two historic governing parties and dissipate any threat to Canadian unity. No more divisive referenda on independence.
Invasion Of Ukraine And Its Consequences For Eurasia - OpEd
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having important consequences around the world. Eurasia, a zone where vital Russian economic and security interests are present, is no exception. Eurasian actors are watching carefully the impact of Russian progress or lack thereof in Ukraine. After more than 6 months of invasion, Russian military power is being questioned in the face of Ukrainian resolve and the weapons they are being supplied by Western powers.
War In Ukraine - OpEd
Another war, another litany of half-truths, more dead and injured bodies. War is hell and to visit it upon others for questionable reasons is a war crime. Yet, these pillars of stone are never caught and brought to justice for their ultimate crime. They simply feed off of the apathy of others and foreign powers that are unable to summon the strength to defend freedom and democracy, the values they supposedly stand for, adore and nurture.
A Canadian Revolt Against Vaccine Mandates — AIIA
Justin Trudeau has finally taken action against the Freedom Convoys and their supporters. The spirit and popularity of the movement suggest this problem is not going away. Since 29 January 2022, spontaneous popular revolts continue to occur across Canada.
Québec’s Bill 21: Secularism Or Religious Freedom? - OpEd
Quebec’s secularism law, commonly known as Bill 21, was passed into law by the Quebec National Assembly on June 16, 2019. The law, which enjoys majority support amongst the French speaking Quebeckers, is based on the province’s commitment to secularism. It extends to state employees in positions of authority like teachers, police and judges by requiring a non-religious dress code on several categories of public servants.
The Democratic Deficit In The Municipal Politics Of The ‘Free World’ - OpEd
Location of Pointe-Claire. Credit: Wikipedia Commons By Bruce Mabley ‘In order to become the master, the politician poses as the servant.’ — Charles de Gaulle In most federal polities around the planet, the democratic will of the people is exercised through its elected representatives using three different levels of government. All three have different jurisdictions, powers and budgets. Often these differences are validated by a popularly approved constitution.
Drivers of Populism in Indonesia - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Indonesia is now a prime candidate for long-term populist influence. The Australian Institute of International Affairs is pleased to award Marcus Mietzner the Boyer Prize for the best original article published in the Australian Journal of International Affairs in 2020. This is an extract from that article. Indonesia is an important, yet understudied, case of how populism can creep into a system in which many structural preconditions do not appear to be supportive of populist challenges.
Has Canada Become A Second-Rate World Power? - OpEd
By Bruce Mabley The tell-tale signs of weakness and ineptitude were all too present. Canadians just didn’t want to take them seriously. I suppose the major slide in foreign policy began with the first minority Conservative government of Stephen Harper in 2006. Profiting from the bevues of the Liberal Party financing scandals, Harper was elected mainly by Western Canada where he hails from.
Diplomacy And The Release Of Michael Kovrig - OpEd
The trials of Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig have come and gone without a verdict or even knowledge of the trial proceedings. Was evidence produced? How and what was produced, if anything at all? Meanwhile, ex-Canadian Ambassadors look on, journalists contemplate writing stories without news and politicians mumble about rule of law and habeus corpus. I am afraid that the news will get worse before it gets better. Yet, on the diplomatic front, events are proceeding.
The Case Of Systemic Racism - OpEd
Throughout the planet, there has been much talk about systemic racism. In the United States, which has had a long history of racism embedded in an economic mode of production, the continued questionable shootings of Black citizens in the streets of America have given rise to the movement ‘Black Lives Matter’. They do matter.
The Canadian Leadership Crisis - OpEd
England has Winston Churchill. The United States has the Kennedy family. France has De Gaulle. Egypt has Nasser. Israel has Ben Gurion. India has Gandhi. Pakistan has Benazir Bhutto. Québec has René Lévesque. What does Canada have? A section of Canadian opinion might even object to opening a discussion of the subject since it implies notions of excellence, elitism and leadership, all antithetical to a strange form of abnegation and thirst for cultural mediocrity. Let us not jump the gun though.
North American Nostalgia - OpEd
I suppose that I should not be indulging in nostalgia while the pandemic reaps its deadly ransom throughout the planet. A case could be made for delaying any criticism of political governance in human affairs and concentrating on battling COVID 19. Certainly, amongst some politicians, mainly those in power, this might be considered the moral thing to do.
Releasing Michael Kovrig - OpEd
Much has been said and written about the ongoing case for the extradition Meng Wanzhou, a chief Huawei executive, to the United States. You will recall that she was arrested at the Vancouver airport en route to Mexico in December 2018 at the request of the United States on the pretext that she had violated US sanctions against Iran. Those sanctions were never approved by any coalition of the willing in the United Nations and Canada has not endorsed them.
The Fragile Foreign Policy of Donald Trump - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Just days into the Trump presidency’s fourth year, the United States (US) teetered on the brink of war with Iran, in no small part due to the fragile state of mind and foreign policy of Donald Trump. It’s been said that the president’s foreign policymaking is incoherent, or even irrational, but is this really the case? In June 2016, Northwestern University psychology professor Dan P.
Turkey, Syria and the Kurds - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Turkey’s incursions into Syria have been widely criticised, but Turkey justifies them as self-defence measures. These incursions are also indicative of wider international interests and a long history of Kurds being marginalised. Turkey’s current incursion into Northern Syria, which began in earnest on 9 October 2019, has been met with widespread criticism throughout the world.
Canada's China Conundrum - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Fear is prompting Canadian policymakers to take the path of least resistance with China. Is this fear justified, or is the key to relations with China to understand that it has become a “paper tiger?” Bilateral relations between Canada and China are at an all-time low. The arrest of Meng Hangzhou, a senior executive of the Chinese firm Huawei, at Vancouver airport late last year has resulted in a series of judicial and trade measures meant to punish Canada.
Huawei, the Foreign Adversary? - Australian Institute of International Affairs
The Google-Huawei dispute over the Android operating system has done irrevocable damage to the reputation of the US tech sector. It’s easy to wonder how we got here, so let’s trace back over the past month. On May 15, the US moved to counteract foreign adversaries creating and exploiting vulnerabilities in information communications technology and services through Executive Order 13873.
The Putin-Kim Summit: Nuclear Politics, Sanctions and the Infrastructure Prize - AIIA
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met in Vladivostok on the 25 April. While no agreements were signed, Chairman Kim got another opportunity to boost his legitimacy through the prestige of leader-to-leader diplomacy and President Putin to explore the possibility of dealing Russia back into Northeast Asian diplomacy and to network Russia into the East Asian economy.
Unfinished Business: Russia’s War on Ukraine - AIIA
The fifth anniversary on 18 March of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election two weeks later prompt reflection on the most serious conflict to threaten Europe’s security since the Cold War ended: the smouldering war between Russia and Ukraine. The most important aspect of Ukraine’s presidential election is its legitimacy.
Justin Trudeau and the SNC Lavalin Scandal in Canada - AIIA
It once seemed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could do no wrong. He now finds himself at the middle of a corruption scandal that could derail his Liberal party’s electoral fortunes. It all started as a small Cabinet shuffle coming after the resignation of the head of treasury board, himself the object of a potentially damaging shipbuilding scandal. That January day in 2019, as the minister of justice pulled up to Rideau Hall, political pundits expressed their bewilderment.
Diplomacy and Crisis Management - AIIA
In this episode of AIIA VIC’s Dyason House Podcast, former-diplomat Jean Dunn discusses diplomacy and crisis management. Jean is the current director Indo-Pacific of the Centre for Political and Diplomatic Studies and formerly Australia’s ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Poland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Ukraine. She discusses her long career as a trade negotiator and a diplomat. Jean outlines the path that led her into this career and the skills it requires.
Another International Crisis for Canada - AIIA
The arrest of Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou and subsequent detention of two Canadians is creating headaches for Canada.
A Convenient Murder: The Khashoggi Affair in Saudi-Turkish-US Relations - AIIA
Jamal Khashoggi’s murder has shifted US focus away from Ankara’s poor treatment of journalists and allowed Turkey to take the offensive to an embattled Saudi regime. The murder of Saudi activist and journalist Jamal Khashoggi is no longer in doubt. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has publicly made a statement referring to his ‘heinous death’. The problem is that the ‘heinous’ crime appears to have taken place inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul two weeks ago.
The New NAFTA: Trade Agreement By Extortion - AIIA
The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is a reality. Mexico and Canada can now assess the extent of the damage. Last Tuesday, the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was announced to replace the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). As an economic deal, the USMCA makes little sense and is not so different from the former NAFTA. As a political deal, only the American side can claim victory after months of arm-twisting and blackmail.
Political Drivers in Russian Foreign Policy - AIIA
Russia seeks to create a favourable environment for the domestic development of the Russian people. That means building peace and friendly mutually-beneficial cooperation with other countries. Currently, Russia’s relations with the West have returned to the level of the Cold War. To reset, the West needs to understand and accept the reality of the changing system of international relations which is no longer dominated by the G7 developed countries.
Averting Disaster in Syria’s Idlib Pocket - AIIA
By signing an agreement in Sochi, Turkey and Russia averted a colossal humanitarian tragedy and prevented the Assad regime from proclaiming complete control over all Syria. On 17 September in Sochi, Turkey and Russia signed an agreement establishing a demilitarised zone in what is the last remaining stronghold of the embattled Syrian opposition. The Idlib Pocket in northern Syria corresponds roughly with the original boundaries of Idlib Province.
The Legacy of Iraq - AIIA
Despite the coming demise of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the volume is a timely reminder of the limited efficacy of armed force to secure positive outcomes and the devastating effects such actions have on the everyday people caught in the cross-fire.
Cultural Diplomacy: Australia's Chance in the Pacific - AIIA
With DFAT currently conducting a review of Australia’s Soft Power Review, what is the potential for cultural diplomacy? ‘Cultural’ diplomacy provides an opportunity for Australia to retain its important standing in the region. Cultural diplomacy involves deepening cultural connections between states through establishing inter-polity communication using cultural artefacts.
The Archaeological Impact of the Syrian Conflict - AIIA
Conflict has caused great damage to Syria’s ruins and monuments. While reconstruction is an enormous project, it would create employment opportunities for deprived Syrians. The Syrian conflict has caused great damage to Syria’s ruins and monuments of historical interest, including in Palmyra and Aleppo. While it is feasible to reconstruct sites through detailed plans, there are challenges in initiating this process.
Saudi-Canada Twitter Tiff - AIIA
A recent spat on twitter resulted in a freeze in Saudi-Canada relations, with diplomats expelled and commercial, air and educational links suspended. What exactly happened? Complaints about human rights violations in Saudi Arabia are not new. Countries like Sweden and Germany have periodically complained to the Kingdom.
The Mouse That Roared – the Tiff Between Saudi Arabia and Canada
With thunderclap surprise and a firestorm on Twitter Friday, August 3 became Black Friday in Saudi-Canadian bilateral relations. Ambassadors were expelled, commercial, air, and even educational links were suspended and diplomatic relations lay in tatters. What exactly happened? Complaints about human rights violations in Saudi Arabia are not new. Countries other than Canada have complained to the Kingdom.
No Sign of the NATO of the East - AIIA
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation met earlier this month in Qingdao. Despite its development potential, there is not much evidence that it will develop to become an anti-Western centre of power. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in China’s city of Qingdao on 9-10 June was the first to take place after its membership expanded last year.
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