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Articles by Caleb Abell
We Do These Things Because They're Easy: Our All-Consuming Dependence On Debt
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, A world in which "we do these things because they're easy" has one end-state: collapse. On September 12, 1962, President John F. Kennedy gave a famous speech announcing the national goal of going to the moon by the end of the decade.
Economic Reality: Bottom 50% Of Americans No Longer Matter
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, The Fed likes to brag about the “We saved the world” recovery. However, the unfortunate truth of the matter is a record Half of American Families Live Paycheck to Paycheck. Does it Matter? Let’s investigate. Unprepared for Nearly Anything 50% are woefully unprepared for a financial emergency. Nearly 1 in 5 (19%) Americans have nothing set aside to cover an unexpected emergency.
'Dummies' Guide To Geopolitical Relationships In The Middle East
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For Gundlach, These Are The Three Key Charts To Watch
Yesterday afternoon, we presented readers with the latest Jeff Gundlach webcast and presentation, in which the DoubleLine fund manager was surprisingly non-committal in his outlook on the future, predicting no imminent - or even belated - recession and adding there is no risk of a high-yield junk bond "meltdown." Among other things, the sanguine Gundlach touched on US policy, saying that with healthcare legislation overhaul derailed, U.S. tax cuts will be "really, really hard to get done." He...
46% Of Millennials In San Fran Ready To Move Out; Blame Housing, Traffic & Trump
A growing number of snowflake millennials are saying they can no longer stand to live in the preeminent American 'safe space' of San Francisco because the "rent is too damn high", the traffic is too damn congested and, well, President Trump. According to a new poll conducted by the Bay Area Council, 40% of all people living in San Francisco say they're ready to ditch the city for greener pastures while the number is even higher among millennials at 46%.
Poison Assassination Of Kim Jong Un's Brother "Lasted About 15 Seconds"
Following yesterday's shocking news that the half-brother of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was assassinated, Malaysian authorities said on Wednesday that they detained a suspect in the apparent murder and are looking for a "few" other foreign suspects, as they zeroed in on the two women who police said fatally attacked him.
In 50 Years This Has Never Failed To Trigger A Bear Market
Authored by Jesse Felder of TheFelderReport.com, It’s earnings season once again and it looks as if, as a group, corporate America still can’t find the end of its earnings decline since profits peaked over a year ago. What’s more analysts, renowned for their Pollyannish expectations, can’t seem to find it, either. So I thought it might be interesting to look at what the stock market has done in the past during earnings recessions comparable to the current one. And it’s pretty eye-opening.
Saddest Bumper Sticker Of The Year
Equity markets globally have rebounded to their pre-Brexit levels and volatility in financial markets is the lowest that it has been for a month. Even the precious metals rally has taken a breather.
First Post-Brexit Bailout Looms As Bank Of England Mulls UK Property Fund 'Measures'
Who could have seen that coming? While many have questioned the "suitability of daily-traded, open-ended property funds that are giving investors access to an illiquid asset," all the time the price is rising, no one wants to rock the boat. However, now that Brexit has rocked the boat, spoiling the party for UK property investors and asset managers alike, it's time for Carney to ride to the tax-payer-funded bailout rescue to ensure Bear Stearns 2.0 does not become Lehman 2.0...
The Reason For The Relentless Scramble For US Corporate Debt In One Chart
The most stunning thing about the blockbuster M&A deal announced overnight, in which Italy's Danone offered to acquire organic foods producer WhiteWave Foods in a deal worth $12.5 billion, including some $2.1 billion of debt, is that the deal size represents a gargantuan 21.2x forward EBITDA multiple for WhiteWave, six turns higher than the average multiple of around 15 times in recent dairy deals.
The NBA Business Model is Headed for Bankruptcy (Video)
By EconMatters The recent free agency period in the NBA is a sign of impending doom as Economics is about to lay its wrath of consequences for the massive scale of financial incompetence exhibited by the NBA Business Model.
Swedish Solution To Muslims Attacking Women: "Don't Grope Me" Wristbands!!
Police are investigating “a score of cases in which young girls have been molested,” Swedish Aftonbladet daily reported. It said that the alleged attacks occurred during the “Putte i Parken” rock festival in Karlstad in Varmland County, despite enhanced police presence. The women told police they were kissed against their will by a group of young men who groped their breasts and buttocks, SVT reported.
Breuphoria - Stocks Explode Higher On Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years
We hope this helps...
General Collateral Rate Surges To Post Fed-Hike Highs On Quarter End Window Dressing
Over the past few days, the size of the Fed's Reverse Repos have been rising rapidly, with yesterday's operation jumping to $143 billion among 52 counterparties, the highest in months as the quarter end collateral scramble goes full throttle. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the overnight general collateral rate. As Stone McCarthy reports, the overnight general collateral rate has jumped to 0.75% this morning.
Is Europe In Trouble Again: Hints Of Portuguese, Italian Bank Bailouts Suggest Not All Is Well
In the aftermath of Germany refusal to allow Italy to breach Eurozone regulations, and provide its banks with up to €40 billion in new capital, Italy has unveiled a new track to handle its insolvent banks and as Reuters reports, the Italian government may have to inject capital directly into weaker banks to bolster their financial strength, a government source said on Thursday, adding it was waiting for the results of stress tests being conducted by European banking authorities.
Fighting Back? "Robo-Lawyer"-App Overturns 160,000 Parking Tickets
Submitted by via TheAntiMedia.org, Got a bullshit parking ticket? Now you can appeal it in less than a minute. The new chatbot tool, DoNotPay, uses previously successful appeal letters to draw up a customized template, allowing users to avoid courts, legal fees, stress, and having to use a lawyer. So far, the free app has overturned 160,000 parking tickets in London and New York.
Who's Next To Exit? France... Or Maryland?
Authored by Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners (annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum), Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. But the English, along with the Welsh, voted strongly to break out. They dodged the searchlights, the hounds, and the barbed wire. Now, they are on the loose… and we and others are planning our escape. “Frexit!” say the French. “Nexit!” say the Dutch. “Ciao!” say the Italians.
Wake-Up Call America: Iceland's New President Has Never Been A Politician
Submitted by Alex Pietrowski via WakingTimes.com, With admiration, many have been observing Iceland’s handling of the banking crisis that jolted the entire world in recent years. Now experiencing a unique economic recovery, the Icelandic public became aware in 2008 that the nation’s private banks had borrowed some $120 billion dollars, ten times the size of Iceland’s economy, creating an economic bubble which forced housing prices to double, and saddled the nation’s people with debt.
New Haven Declares Public Health Emergency After "Never Before Seen" Heroin Overdose Epidemic
Last week we reported that Heroin use in the United States has reached a 20 year high, and no sooner did we pen that did we learn that New Haven, Connecticut has declared a public health emergency due to a string of heroin overdoses. Officials said that New Haven has experienced at least 15 overdoses since Thursday afternoon and possibly up to 22 NBC reports.
John Taylor Is Not Happy With Janet Yellen
During a lengthy and technical-jargon-ridden response, Fed Chair Janet Yellen attempted to defend the fact that she is holding rates around 350bps below "fair" value based on The Taylor Rule. Her argument, simple, John Taylor - the model's creator - is using the wrong rate. Fellow PhD economist Taylor was not amused and responded rapidly on Twitter... .@steveliesman Response on pp 9-11 of https://t.co/DRjJKrRThK: We show good reasons to think neutral rate has not changed as she suggests. — John B.
Japan: A Future Of Stagnation
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog, Take a declining population with declining rates of productivity growth and load it up with debt, and you get a triple-whammy recipe for permanent stagnation. One of our longtime friends in Japan just sold the family business. The writing was on the wall, and had been for the past decade: fewer customers, with less money, and no end of competition for the shrinking pool of customers and spending.
"Crooked" Hillary Has 3 Simple Words For Donald Trump
Hillary's Answer to all her problems , just " Delete " everything. She is so corrupt. Trump needs to deal the death blow to her, one way of doing this would be to get Sanders on his side. If he could get Sanders to endorse him lol (i know i know fat chance of a socialist endorsing a free market entrepreneur) we could scoop up half or so of his supporters and just squash this roach Hitlery.
"Most Dangerous" World In A Decade Has Only 10 Countries Not At War
Authored by Adam Withnall, originally posted at The Independent, The world is becoming a more dangerous place and there are now just 10 countries which can be considered completely free from conflict, according to authors of the 10th annual Global Peace Index. The worsening conflict in the Middle East, the lack of a solution to the refugee crisis and an increase in deaths from major terrorist incidents have all contributed to the world being less peaceful in 2016 than it was in 2015.
The $6 TRILLION Corporate Debt Implosion Begins in T-Minus 3...2...
The corporate bond market is a $6 trillion time bomb waiting to go off. It took the US to grow its corporate bond market to $3 trillion. Thanks to the Fed implementing ZIRP and holding rates there for seven years, we’ve doubled the corporate bond market, adding another $3 trillion in corporate debt… since 2009. These bonds are junk… literally. The average credit rating is junk. All told, since 2012, 75% of companies accessing the bond market have had a credit rating of single-B.
Oil Spikes On Yet Another OPEC "Oil Freeze" Headline
Just when you thought the February through April recurring headline nightmare is over, in which an "unnamed source" repeatedly promised that an OPEC oil output freeze is imminent, it has come back to life just hours ahead of the OPEC meeting.
Hong Kong Retail Sales Plunge 7.5% YoY, Fall For 14th Consecutive Month
Hong Kong's retail sales fell for the 14th consecutive month in April, plunging 7.5 percent from a year ago. April was slightly less severe than a revised estimate of a 9.8 percent YoY contraction in March. April sales of jewellery, watches, clocks and valuable gifts fell 16.6 percent in value terms, a 20th consecutive month of decline, while durable consumer goods fell the most at 31.6 percent, followed by electronics and photographic equipment which fell 23 percent.
"This Is Not The America My Parents Immigrated To In 1957"
Submitted by 'Stucky' via The Burning Platform blog, Not that I remember what America was like in 1957, as I was not yet five years old. Years later, when I was old enough to understand, they told me their story. Briefly, it goes like this.
It's Official: Trump Has Enough Delegates To Win The Republican Nomination
The presumptive Republican presidential candidates is now the official Republican presidential candidate. Moments ago, AP calculated that Donald Trump on Thursday reached the number of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination for president, completing an unlikely rise that has upended the political landscape and sets the stage for a bitter fall campaign.
South Africa's Standard Bank Victim Of "Perfectly Coordinated Attack" In Japanese ATM Scam
South Africa's Standard Bank has confirmed that it is the latest bank to be hacked into, admitting that it had credit card data stolen and used in an elaborate scheme carried out in Japan. On May 15th, between 5am and 8am, more than 100 people withdrew $13 million from 1400 ATMs across Japan in less than three hours. The coordinated heist involved forged credit cards, and data stolen from South Africa's Standard Bank.
Moody's Downgrades Deutsche Bank's Debt Two Notches Above Junk
While not quite on the level of last week's Berenberg downgrade (to Sell) which warned that DB's problems are now "insurmountable", shortly after the close Moody's surprised the market with a downgrade that may have substantial repercussions on the funding costs (and perhaps viability) of the largest German, and European, lender.
Walmart Surges 9% After Beating EPS Expectations, Comp Sales
In what is the traditional end to earnings season, moments ago the second biggest employer in the US after the government, Walmart reported results which after several quarters of disappointment solidly beat expectations, reporting Q1 EPS of $0.98 (down 4.9% Y/Y), higher than the $0.88 expected even as revenue of $115.9 billion (up 0.9% Y/Y) missed expectations of $133.3 billion.
80 Countries Just Slammed The US Over Habit Of Bombing Hospitals
Saudi Arabia, the United States, and their allies have developed a nasty habit of “epidemic” proportions in various military theaters, particularly around the Middle East — bombing hospitals, healthcare facilities, and, in at least one instance, an ambulance. But despite countless pleas from humanitarian organization Médicins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors Without Borders), that bombing continues, so the United Nations was finally forced to issue its own resolution on the matter.
Hillary Doubles Down As FBI Probe Enters Final Stages
After interviewing Hillary Clinton's top aides last week, the question now becomes whether or not the FBI will interview Clinton next as the investigation enters its final stages. In an interview today with CBS' "Face The Nation", Hillary said nobody had contacted her regarding an interview. Clinton also doubled down on her claims that she did nothing wrong. Of course, there's classified and then there's "classified", but we'll save that for another day.
Favor Delivery: How Many Reckless Drivers Driving Without Insurance?
It was actually a fairly minor fender bender type of auto incident where a Favor Delivery driver (or runner as Favor calls them) parked at a Fire Lane No Parking Zone directly behind my friend’s garage for a quick drop-off on the job. My friend inevitably backed into the Favor Driver’s car. My friend complained to favor’s corporate office about its driver’s illegal parking causing the accident, and also filed a claim with the runner’s personal auto insurance co.
Deutsche Bank Has Systemic Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing And Sanctions Problems: UK Regulator
Just two days after Deutsche Bank fired the head of its "integrity committee", Georg Thoma who had been originally tasked with clearing up the bank's past scandals, because according to DB's vice chairman Alfred Herling, Thoma had been "overzealous" and "goes too far when he demands ever wider investigations and more and more lawyers come marching up", today the UK financial watchdog agency FCA announced that Germany's biggest bank has "serious" and "systemic" failings in its controls against...
PRECIOUS METALS INVESTOR: Must See Important Charts & Data
The U.S. and world economies are in serious trouble. Unfortunately, the majority of analysts continue to put out increasingly worthless forecasts as they fail to understand the true nature of the problem... or rather, the predicament we are facing. We must remember, problems have solutions while a predicament may be too difficult to solve.
Did Bernie Sanders Just Go Full Establishment?
Comments made by Bernie Sanders this week may just have blindsided and disillusioned swathes of his support base. Some of those with higher expectations of the ‘peacenik’ candidate breathed a collective sigh of disappointment after he endorsed Obama’s extrajudicial drone assassination program. At the same time, the Democratic candidate backed the recent deployment of 250 U.S. troops to further death and destruction in Syria.
Swedes Revolt Over Refugees Near Schools: Demand "F##king Answers" From Stockholm City Council
Having documented the growing tensions in Sweden between an immigration-happy government and a nation beset by refugee-crime sprees, it appears 'the people' have had enough.
Latest Shock From Europe's Refugee Crisis: Austria Right-Wing Party Sweeps First Round Of Presidential Election
The fallout of popular anger emanating from Europe's refugee crisis, which may have moderated in recent weeks following Europe's desperate attempts to bribe Turkey to keep as many refugees in its borders as possible (unleashing the era of unprecedented Turkish leverage over European sovereigns, including Germany and the Netherlands) continued today with a dramatic result from the first round of Austria's presidential election, where initial results showed that the candidate of the Freedom...
Adam Parker Blows Up At Fake Contrarians Who Are "Indistinguishable From Consensus", Only Care About Price
Several weeks ago, Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker was comparing rally chasers to cockroaches (not so much due to their outward appearance or intellectual capacity but because of their desire to survive no matter where the next market nuke will blow up).
Is Tail Risk Really At An 18-Month Low?
The CBOE SKEW Index just closed at its lowest level since October 2014 – but is tail risk in the stock market really that low? We often stress the importance of taking indicators and data at face value as much as possible, avoiding the temptation to qualify or *asterisk* readings that don’t seem to fit the narrative. That said, it is also important to be familiar enough with an indicator’s behavior to recognize when truly atypical or outlier readings are issued.
Deutsche Bank Is Crashing Again As European Banks Slide To Crisis Lows
As of this moment, various European banks but most prominently Deutsche Bank... ... as well as Credit Suisse and RBS, have been crashing back to lows hit in early February and then all the way back to the March 2009 "the world is ending" lows. We commented on this yesterday using, ironically enough, a note by Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, in which we showed all the things that were not supposed to happen when Draghi unleashed his massive quad-bazooka QE expansion.
2043 | Zero Hedge
Core inflation is breaking out. Sticky inflation is rising. And the Fed is not hiking anymore. Buckle Up.
Centralization vs. Decentralization
While the 20th century unequivocally belonged to the centralization of resources and capital, both human and monetary, we are now undergoing a shift of seismic proportions in the 21st century. And understanding this is so utterly crucial to your personal wealth. The issue of decentralization is one of the most important discussions of our time. It is being thrust upon individuals, corporates and governments alike as waves of capital shift at increasing speed.
Is This The Debt Jubilee?
Not so long ago the financial world viewed certain numbers as limits beyond which lay trouble. Interest rates near zero, for instance, were thought to risk destabilizing the banking system. And government fiscal deficits above 3% were considered so dangerous that exceeding this level was prohibited by the Maastricht treaty that all eurozone members were required to sign. Those numbers — 0% and 3% — are still considered bad. But now for the opposite reason: They’re insufficiently aggressive.
What The Charts Say: A "Complacent", "Overbought" Market With 2018 Support And 2075 Resistance
In a market overtaken by central bankers, where fundamentals don't work (or work inversely because the worse the data, the greater the central bank stimulus and/or jawboning) traders are flying blind and hoping that at least technicals can provide some information. Courtesy of BofA's chief technician, Stephen Suttemier, below is a summary of what the latest charts say, and why he believes that the "overbought", "complacent" market has support around 2018-2002 and resistance is at 2075-2085.
Leaking Beachfront Nuclear Reactor Near Miami Threatening Florida Everglades
According to a study released by Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez on Monday, the waters of Biscayne Bay measured 215 times the level of radioactive tritium as is found in normal ocean water. Tritium is a radioactive isotope traceable to nuclear plant cooling tower operations. In this case, the leak appears to be emanating from the aging canals in the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station located nearby.
Peter Schiff: The Establishment Is Peddling Fiction, Ignoring Fact
In his seventh, and final, State of the Union address this January, President Obama, clearly looking to bolster his legacy as the president who vanquished the Great Recession, boldly asserted that “Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction.” Unfortunately for the President, more and more Americans seem to believe (with an adequate basis in proof) that the fiction is emanating from the White House.
"Has Everyone Lost Their Freaking Minds?"
“How low do you have to stoop in this country to be President?” ? Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72 “The main problem in any democracy is that crowd-pleasers are generally brainless swine who can go out on a stage & whup their supporters into an orgiastic frenzy—then go back to the office & sell every one of the poor bastards down the tube for a nickel apiece.” ? Hunter S.
Mind The Business Cycle
Counter-intuitively, the recent increases in core inflation are normal in the sequence of how a recession evolves. The typical business-cycle sequence is that the manufacturing sector weakens first, then employment and consumer spending, and lastly, inflation. In fact, it is often not until the recession is over that inflation begins to come down.
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