Chad Keller
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Articles by Chad Keller
Under the Hood: Strong Demand, Higher Real Rates, and What It Means for Portfolios
Jobs Growth: Slower but Steady Over time, growth in real GDP roughly equals the combination of productivity growth and labor force growth, and employment growth tracks the labor force (exhibit 1). When the business cycle rolls over, recessions push unemployment higher, and then recoveries bring it back down. In more normal periods like today, hiring broadly matches the labor force growth, and unemployment holds steady.
Under the Hood: Strong Demand, Higher Real Rates, and What It Means for Portfolios
Jobs Growth: Slower but Steady Over time, growth in real GDP roughly equals the combination of productivity growth and labor force growth, and employment growth tracks the labor force (exhibit 1). When the business cycle rolls over, recessions push unemployment higher, and then recoveries bring it back down. In more normal periods like today, hiring broadly matches the labor force growth, and unemployment holds steady.
New Information Leaves Clues on What is Driving 10-Year Treasury Yields Higher
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed sharply over the past year, rising from roughly 4.0% last October to nearly 4.9% by mid-September 2026. The more interesting story, however, is not that yields increased but why. A Treasury bond’s nominal yield, the interest rate it pays each year based on its face value, is comprised of two components: the market’s inflation expectations and the real interest rate (i.e., nominal yield minus expected inflation).
How Concentration and Duration Risk Redefined the Benchmark
The indexes most investors use to track the markets don’t look the way they did just five years ago. Many investors are aware that the major stock market index has become far more concentrated in a handful of companies than it has been in decades, but the bond market has also taken on more concentration and interest rate risk than many investors realize. Both shifts mean that index-based investing, in all of its forms, carries a different risk profile than it did just five years ago.
Today’s Interest Rates: Not the New Normal, Just Normal
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months. At the same time, our work suggests interest rates may remain higher than investors became accustomed to during the post-Global Financial Crisis era.
Today’s Interest Rates: Not the New Normal, Just Normal
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months. At the same time, our work suggests interest rates may remain higher than investors became accustomed to during the post-Global Financial Crisis era.
Beneath the Headlines: An Economy in Transition, Not in Trouble
Key Takeaways The July jobs report headline (-23,000 payrolls and a combined -103,000 in prior-month revisions) glances over a more nuanced picture: layoffs remain historically low and job openings remain plentiful. This looks like a labor-supply problem, not a demand setback. Still, the situation bears watching closely. All four dimensions of our Recession Tracker are positive for the first time in months as real personal income turned positive year-over-year in June.
Quarter Horse Regional Challenge Finals at Prairie Meadows Set for August 14-15th Challenge Champion
By Chad Keller ALTOONA, IA–AUGUST 11, 2026–Experience thrilling Quarter Horse action as top racers compete to qualify for the Challenge Championships on October 17 at The Downs at Albuquerque in the Prairie Meadows Regional Challenge Finals this weekend. An estimated $196,724 in purse money will be awarded across four races on Friday and Saturday, with post time set for 5:00 p.m. (CDT) both nights.
Two Timely Ways to Diversify Beyond Mega-Cap Tech Right Now
After years of a narrow group of technology and microchip stocks driving most of the market’s gains, recent volatility is a reminder of what concentration risk feels like in practice. Semiconductor names have swung sharply in recent weeks, and the turbulence has spilled into the broader tech-heavy indexes that many portfolios now lean on heavily for returns.
Mid-Year Review & Outlook: A Resilient Economy Continues to Push Through Headwinds
The labor market reaccelerated this past quarter and defied expectations of a slowdown. However, we anticipate slowing jobs creation based primarily on the lack of available workers rather than businesses being more cautious. The official unemployment rate (U-3) ignores individuals that are not looking for work. In contrast, we prefer a broader measure using all Americans that are 16 years or older. Using this larger population set, the unemployment rate is near an all-time low (exhibit 2).
Mid-Year Review & Outlook: A Resilient Economy Continues to Push Through Headwinds
Key Takeaways Economic growth is stronger than headline GDP suggests. Private sector activity currently outpaces GDP, which has been dragged down by net exports. The labor market is tight, not strong. Worker scarcity should keep jobs growth cooling and unemployment low. » Inflation likely peaked in May. Led by fading energy costs and cooling housing inflation, current levels support a pause by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Weak inflation-adjusted income growth remains the key risk flag.
Impacts of a New Fed Regime
This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com. Last week, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh held his first press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While the Committee's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely expected, investors were focused on what the new Chair's remarks would reveal about the future direction of monetary policy and the institution itself.
Impacts of a New Fed Regime
Last week, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh held his first press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While the Committee’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely expected, investors were focused on what the new Chair’s remarks would reveal about the future direction of monetary policy and the institution itself. Warsh emphasized the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation target and signaled a reduced reliance on forward guidance.
Prairie Meadows hosts Stars & Stripes July 3rd Event
By Chad Keller ALTOONA, IA–JULY 2, 2026–Prairie Meadows will feature the annual Stars and Stripes event on Friday, July 3, 2026. The action-packed day will feature free, family- friendly entertainment with a spectacular fireworks display, at dusk. The Independence Day weekend celebration on July 3rd will include trackside entertainment and fun for the entire family.
Despite Uncertainties the U.S. Economy Powers On
Despite global geopolitical uncertainties and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. economy is showing signs of accelerating growth in the second quarter after a relatively soft start to the year. As often happens, stock market volatility is creating a lot of unease that masks the positive fundamentals. Legitimate concerns about stock market valuations are being stoked by unnerving headlines that ignore solid, and even improving, economic fundamentals.
Fixed Income Markets in a Higher for Longer Environment
Interest rates remain one of the primary concerns for investors as Kevin Warsh has officially assumed leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). While we believe the possibility of a rate cut has diminished considerably, we are not yet expecting additional rate hikes. In our view, Warsh is likely to chair the board independently and pragmatically in an environment that would make it difficult to justify easing policy while inflation remains elevated.
Fixed Income Markets in a Higher for Longer Environment
Interest rates remain one of the primary concerns for investors as Kevin Warsh has officially assumed leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). While we believe the possibility of a rate cut has diminished considerably, we are not yet expecting additional rate hikes. In our view, Warsh is likely to chair the board independently and pragmatically in an environment that would make it difficult to justify easing policy while inflation remains elevated.
Beyond the Headlines, a Broader Opportunity Emerges
While geopolitical volatility in the Middle East has captured the headlines and stoked market anxiety, a more profound and constructive narrative is quietly unfolding within the domestic economy. For the disciplined investor, the noise of the news cycle often obscures a broadening opportunity set. We are currently witnessing a resurgence in the American industrial sector and a structural shift in productivity that suggests the U.S. is entering a growth cycle reminiscent of the 1990s.
A New Era at the Fed: Policy, Power, and the Path Forward
For those who have followed our commentary for well over a decade, one of the most consistent themes has been that few forces are as consequential to the near-term trajectory of the economy and the financial markets as Federal Reserve policy. We have seen this play out repeatedly while managing capital through some of the most significant crises of the modern era, including the Great Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the inflation shock that followed.
The Engine of Prosperity: Corporate Investment and Productivity in 2026
The U.S. economy enters 2026 on the back of a landmark year for corporate performance. Large U.S. companies, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, achieved record operating earnings in 2025. This robust profitability has not merely been returned to shareholders; it is being aggressively recycled into the real economy through historic levels of capital expenditure. Analysts expect another year of strong earnings growth in 2026, according to FactSet.
Payment Deadline Reminder for Prairie Meadows / I.Q.H.R.A. Futurity & Derby Races
By Chad Keller ALTOONA, IA–MARCH 30, 2026– With the start of the 2026 live racing season at Prairie Meadows Casino, Racetrack, and Hotel fast approaching, Quarter Horse owners and trainers planning to compete at the Altoona, IA facility this season should take note of the April 1st payment deadline for several Futurity & Derby races.
Resilient by Design: Why the U.S. Economy Keeps Surprising
The current economic landscape is often defined by its loudest headlines: geopolitical strife, shifting central bank leadership, and the ghosts of sticky inflation. However, the challenge for disciplined investors lies in peering through this noise to discern the structural engines driving the U.S. economy.
Prairie Meadows Announces Upcoming 2026 Racing Season in Iowa
By Chad Keller ALTOONA, IA–MARCH 17, 2026– Prairie Meadows Casino, Racetrack, & Hotel is pleased to announce the release of the first condition book, stall application, and stakes schedules for both Thoroughbred and Quarter Horses for the upcoming 2026 live racing season in Iowa. Prairie Meadows’ 2026 live racing season will begin on Saturday, May 2 and will conclude on Saturday, September 26.
Rotation, Not Recession: A Broadening Market Emerges
We have recently experienced market volatility and obvious signs of rotation among stock market sectors. Currently, most of the damage to the stock market seems to be concentrated within software business. For example, semiconductor stocks are still doing well along with the information technology sector. Still, other areas of the U.S. stock market are participating better, such as the health care and industrials sectors.
Prairie Meadows 2026 Quarter Horse Information & March 1st Payment Reminder
By Chad Keller ALTOONA, IA–FEBRUARY 24, 2026– Prairie Meadows Casino, Racetrack, & Hotel is pleased to announce updates on our upcoming Quarter Horse racing season that begins June 8 and continues for 56 race days through September 26 for the 2026 mixed Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse season in Iowa.
The Case for Optimism: Sustaining the Economic & Market Momentum
As we enter 2026, the U.S. economic momentum continues based on the foundation of a solid private sector with fiscal and monetary policies also contributing to growth. As we refine our global asset allocation, we maintain a diversified overweight stance on U.S. equities despite relatively high valuations.
The Case for Optimism: Sustaining the Economic & Market Momentum
As we enter 2026, the U.S. economic momentum continues based on the foundation of a solid private sector with fiscal and monetary policies also contributing to growth. As we refine our global asset allocation, we maintain a diversified overweight stance on U.S. equities despite relatively high valuations.
Aligned With the Fed: A Supportive Backdrop for Growth
The U.S. economy appears poised for a measured and confident expansion into 2026 driven by a stabilizing monetary policy, corporate strength, and resilient household income growth. Our outlook suggests a supportive environment for risk assets, particularly domestic equities, while favoring specialized strategies in fixed income.
Aligned With the Fed: A Supportive Backdrop for Growth
The U.S. economy appears poised for a measured and confident expansion into 2026 driven by a stabilizing monetary policy, corporate strength, and resilient household income growth. Our outlook suggests a supportive environment for risk assets, particularly domestic equities, while favoring specialized strategies in fixed income.
Understanding U.S. Inflation: Key Drivers & Impacts
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), reflects the sustained rise in prices for goods and services. In the U.S., it results from an interplay of demand-pull, cost-push, and built-in factors amplified by monetary policy and global shocks. Post-2021, CPI peaked at 9% in June 2022 before moderating to around 3% currently, which emphasizes these dynamics.
ETFs for the Distribution Phase: Why Individual Bonds & Bond Funds Often Fall Short
As investors enter the distribution phase of their financial lives, the priorities of portfolio construction shift dramatically. Liquidity becomes essential, diversification grows more important, and the ability to meet income needs – sometimes by tapping into principal – must be balanced against risk and market volatility. Fixed income typically becomes a larger share of the overall allocation as time horizons shorten and risk tolerance declines.
ETFs for the Distribution Phase: Why Individual Bonds & Bond Funds Often Fall Short
As investors enter the distribution phase of their financial lives, the priorities of portfolio construction shift dramatically. Liquidity becomes essential, diversification grows more important, and the ability to meet income needs – sometimes by tapping into principal – must be balanced against risk and market volatility. Fixed income typically becomes a larger share of the overall allocation as time horizons shorten and risk tolerance declines.
The U.S. Economy & Financial Markets Offer Opportunities
Though we are getting limited amounts of economic data during the federal government shutdown, the official and private sector data we are receiving generally paints a positive picture for U.S. economic activity. For example, the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers released in late October showed that inflation is persistent, but the monthly update came in a little lower than expected. Looking at the available jobs data, we are seeing greater stability than the headlines might suggest.
The 2025 U.S. Government Shutdown: A Tempest in a Teapot for the Broader Economy
As the United States federal government shutdown continues, the political theater in Washington has reached a fever pitch. Sparked by congressional gridlock over fiscal year 2026 appropriations, this impasse has furloughed over 775,000 federal workers and disrupted services from national parks to air traffic control.
Why Has Gold (and Silver) Rallied in 2025?
Gold and silver have staged remarkable rallies so far in 2025 and defied conventional wisdom about their roles in financial markets. Traditionally viewed as safe-haven assets during crises or hedges against inflation, these metals are thriving in an environment where neither factor appears dominant. U.S. inflation has moderated, and while geopolitical tensions simmer, such as escalating U.S.-China trade disputes, no full-blown global crisis has erupted. So, what explains this momentum?
Government Shutdown & Markets: Growth Persists Amid Shutdown & Tariff Noise
Lately, headlines have been buzzing about the government shutdown and its potential impact on the economy and financial markets. Previous government shutdowns have had negligible effects on the broader economy and financial markets though delays in economic data releases (e.g., employment and inflation figures) occasionally heightened short-term volatility and uncertainty.
Capitalizing on the Curve: Fixed Income Opportunities in a Shifting Rate Environment
The current U.S. fixed income landscape presents a compelling case for tactical allocation. Short-term interest rates have declined following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest rate cut with the federal funds rate hovering around 4.00-4.25% after a 0.25% reduction in September. This easing reflects cooling inflation and a softening labor market.
Slowing Jobs Growth, Shifting Trade Winds, & a New Phase for Monetary Policy
The U.S. economy in late 2025 presents a complex but increasingly coherent picture. Labor market dynamics, trade policy uncertainty, and evolving monetary conditions are each contributing to a recalibration of the economic landscape. While headline jobs growth has clearly decelerated, underlying indicators suggest a maturing business cycle but not a collapsing one.
Slowing Jobs Growth, Shifting Trade Winds, & a New Phase for Monetary Policy
The U.S. economy in late 2025 presents a complex but increasingly coherent picture. Labor market dynamics, trade policy uncertainty, and evolving monetary conditions are each contributing to a recalibration of the economic landscape. While headline jobs growth has clearly decelerated, underlying indicators suggest a maturing business cycle but not a collapsing one.
U.S. vs. BRICS in an Emerging Economic Rivalry
After decades of increasing global integration, signs of geopolitical and economic fracturing are becoming more visible. The trend arguably began with the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit), occurring around the time global trade peaked as a share of global GDP.
Navigating Currency Risk in International Portfolios
The U.S. dollar has experienced a notable decline in value this year relative to a broad basket of foreign currencies. This depreciation has meaningfully affected the investment returns of U.S. based investors holdings in international stocks and bonds. As the dollar weakens (or strengthens) against foreign currencies, the returns on foreign investments increases (or decreases) when translated back into U.S. dollars.
Boom or Bust? Reconciling Strong GDP Growth With Sluggish Job Gains
The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025, which far outpaced the post-2000 average of 2.3% and easily beat expectations. At first glance, this might suggest a booming economy. Yet, jobs creation tells a vastly different story where employment growth has stalled by falling well below the average since January 2000 of 284,000 jobs per month. How can we reconcile this stark divergence between headline GDP and the labor market?
Boom or Bust? Reconciling Strong GDP Growth With Sluggish Job Gains
The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025, which far outpaced the post-2000 average of 2.3% and easily beat expectations. At first glance, this might suggest a booming economy. Yet, jobs creation tells a vastly different story where employment growth has stalled by falling well below the average since January 2000 of 284,000 jobs per month. How can we reconcile this stark divergence between headline GDP and the labor market?
The August 2025 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride. We manage risk within our strategic, long-term allocations based on diversification across equity, fixed income, and alternative assets and a focus on more attractive relative values.
Tariffs & Earnings
While the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is clearly concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on the economy, supply chains, and inflation, Wall Street analysts appear to be more confident that the unknown will not likely extend to S&P 500 Index earnings. Rather, analyst consensus expectations call for 9% earnings growth on 5% revenue growth for the S&P 500 Index in 2025 according to FactSet as of July 11th.
U.S. Economic Fundamentals Refuse to Buckle
The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headline volatility tied to shifting trade and tariff policies. Meanwhile, we continue to see a lot of volatility in the economic data as the world adjusts to these changing policies. For example, following a 0.5% contraction in real GDP in the first quarter, second quarter GDP is tracking at a strong 2.6% annualized rate according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow measure.
Economic Crosscurrents in 2025
As 2025 progresses, investors and policymakers are navigating a highly complex economic landscape shaped by three powerful and interrelated forces: evolving trade policy, a cautious U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and growing concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline. Each of these risks is reshaping expectations for growth, inflation, and asset prices, which makes this a particularly challenging environment.
The July 25 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride. We manage risk within our strategic, long-term allocations based on diversification across equity, fixed income, and alternative assets and a focus on more attractive relative values.
Real Economic Muscle Continues to Power Growth
At this point, how the new budget bill turns out is anyone’s guess. Similarly, we are seeing a lot of uncertainty around tariff implementations, let alone their lasting effects. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) seems willing to be data dependent and stand pat on interest rates. Combined, these factors lead us to expect continued volatility in the near term. As investors, we are more interested in the longer term where we see promising trends in the areas that drive economic growth over time.
The June 25 Dashboard: Our 3 Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride. We manage risk within our strategic, long-term allocations based on diversification across equity, fixed income, and alternative assets and a focus on more attractive relative values.
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