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Articles by Charles He
FTX.com has probably collapsed
What you said is valid in general. As a reply/rebuttal, I think your focus/association with "lying" is misdirected or stilted. Basically, what probably happened to FTX is something like the financial engineering described in this link in this top level post: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent. This take, which is quite hostile, doesn't involve lying per se.
Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. My estimate is 30% x 80% x 70% ~ 1/6, as illustrated in the figure and explained below.
AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities
Preamble: (If you're already familiar with all basics and don't want any preamble, skip ahead to Section B for technical difficulties of alignment proper.) I have several times failed to write up a well-organized list of reasons why AGI will kill you. People come in with different ideas about why AGI would be survivable, and want to hear different obviously key points addressed first.
Terminate deliberation based on resilience, not certainty
BLUF: “We should ponder until it no longer feels right to ponder, and then to choose one of the acts it feels most right to choose… If pondering comes at a cost, we should ponder only if it seems we will be able to separate better options from worse options quickly enough to warrant the pondering” - Trammell Many choices are both highly uncertain, highly consequential, and difficult to develop a highly-confident impression of which option is best.
Results from the First Decade Review
Tl;dr: The Decade Review happened: EA Forum users voted on which posts from the first decade of effective altruism they found most useful and important and reviewed the posts to explain what they appreciated. We’re awarding $12,500 in prizes to authors and reviewers. The distribution of prizes to authors was based on your votes, the results of which are linked. I’m using this post to highlight some aspects of the winning posts and reviews.
Ultra-Near-Termism: Literally An Idea Whose Time Has Come
Summary Recent work has focused on the conflict between philosophies of altruism emphasizing the next few years (near-termism) and those emphasizing the next few centuries to millennia (long-termism). We propose and describe an alternate philosophy, ultra-near-termism, focusing on the next few hours to days.
Why don't governments seem to mind that companies are explicitly trying to make AGIs?
Epistemic Status: Quickly written, uncertain. I'm fairly sure there's very little in terms of the public or government concerned about AGI claims, but I'm sure there's a lot I'm missing. I'm not at all an expert on government or policy and AI. This was originally posted to Facebook here, where it had some discussion. Many thanks to Rob Bensinger, Lady Jade Beacham, and others who engaged in the discussion there.
We’re Rethink Priorities. Ask us anything! — EA Forum
Hi all, We're the staff at Rethink Priorities and we would like you to Ask Us Anything! We'll be answering all questions starting Friday, November 19. About the Org Rethink Priorities is an EA research organization focused on helping improve decisions among funders and key decision-makers within EA and EA-aligned organizations.
Choosing causes re Flynn for Oregon
Andrea Salinas just beat EA candidate Carrick Flynn in the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district. She got about 38% and he got about 19% of the vote. This outcome was (very) disappointing but expected. Individual EAs donated some $900K (my estimate) to Carrick's campaign, presumably mostly because they thought it was highly effective in expectation.
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