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Articles by Chels Michta
China Needs Russia in the Fight
During a four-hour meeting in Brussels in July 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, that China could not afford a Russian defeat in Ukraine. This was a simple power calculus: if Russia lost, the United States would be free to shift its full attention to Beijing.
Europe’s Security Plans Must Extend Beyond its Backyard
The recent decision taken at The Hague by European NATO allies to increase defense spending to 5% by 2035 has been justly celebrated as a step in the right direction. And though one can be skeptical whether the decade-long timeline will survive the test of political will, it nonetheless marked the recognition that rearmament is no longer a theoretical conversation while bringing the alliance closer to operationalizing NATO’s new regional plans.
Europe Moves Ahead on Regulating US Tech
It is a tough choice: risk fueling transatlantic tensions or continue with the European Union’s longstanding commitment to tech regulation. The US administration has derided the DMA as a “tax” or “tariff” on US companies and threatened retaliation. On April 2, the US plans to impose so-called “reciprocal” tariffs by increasing US duties to match the tax rates other countries charge. Europeans are scrambling to respond.
China Moves to Exploit Transatlantic Turmoil Where some see turmoil, others see opportunity. Beijing’s gaze is firmly on the European continent as old Atlantic allies fall out. Read Full Article »
China Moves to Exploit Transatlantic Turmoil
At the Munich Security Conference in February, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described his country as a “steadfast constructive force in a changing world.” In other words, the US may change from one election cycle to the next, but China will not.
Is Russia’s New Felon Fighter a Fraud?
As an example of 21st century aero-design, the Su-57 may have won some hearts during its first public overseas appearance at Airshow 2024 in China. Aviation enthusiasts and military analysts got a rare up-close look at the fighter jet and its sleek lines. But the real audience for new military aircraft are its pilots, and those of the enemies who may confront it in combat, and they may have more mixed feelings.
Trick Question: Who Will Defend Europe?
If Britain were properly governed, Keir Giles would still be “institutionalized in the Ministry of Defence” as he tells me. But Britain is in a mess, and one sign of this is that he is out of public service and able to describe its plight. In 2010, the UK government dissolved the Conflict Studies Research Centre, a defense analysis outfit with a decades-long record of analyzing Kremlin behavior and thinking. Giles, along with its other experts, was considered surplus to requirements.
Fortress Europe: Best of the Rest
Poles, along with their Baltic and Nordic neighbors, are increasingly impatient. They are frustrated by American dithering over Ukraine and the restraints it imposes on responding to Russian gray-zone attacks. They fear that Vladimir Putin’s regime or its successor will be ready for another war far earlier than most Westerners think. They are spending stonking amounts on defense and building a web of tight bilateral and multilateral ties in security, planning, intelligence, and procurement.
Ukraine’s Frontline Units Fight the Russians, and More
“We mainly fire at the charging Russian infantry as they conduct assaults,” says Anatoliy, a commander of a mortar battery unit from Ukraine’s 92nd Separate Assault Brigade. His voice reflects the weariness of a unit that is battling against growing odds. “Sometimes we get 50 or 70 mortar shells twice a week, but in recent weeks we’ve been receiving only 20 to 30,” he says.
Praise the West but Pass Ukraine the Ammunition
It’s encouraging to hear President Biden and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussing an end to restrictions on the use of Western missiles so that Ukraine can use them against the Kremlin inside its territory. And, as a Ukrainian, it’s also good to hear European Union (EU) plans to step forward with additional funding if a Trump victory in November leads to an aid cut-off.
Five Lessons From Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive
The lessons from Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk show an ongoing failure by the West to grasp Putin’s and Russia’s motives, a failing that prevents policy success now and in the future. This will have to change if the West is ever to help Ukraine survive and bring peace once again to the European continent. First, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said, Ukraine intends no permanent occupation of these lands but rather intends to use them as a buffer zone facing Russia.
Ukraine's Kursk Offensive
Edward Lucas Well, hello everyone, and welcome to this CEPA press briefing on the Kursk offensive. I’m Edward Lucas. I’m a senior fellow and senior advisor to CEPA, joining you from Lake Como in Italy, and it’s my great pleasure to introduce our three speakers here. We have Pavel Luzin, Elina Beketova and Nico Lange, but I also want to say that it’s a great privilege to have such an expert attendance here from the media. I see many familiar names here on the screen.
The Second Battle of Kursk: An Omen of Doom?
The Battle of Kursk from July to August 1943 marked a decisive turning point in the Soviet campaign to drive Hitler’s Wehrmacht from the USSR. Eighty-one years later, will another Battle of Kursk become a major event in Ukraine’s campaign to purge its territory from Vladimir Putin’s forces? The German debacle in 1943 transpired just two years after Hitler’s June 1941 Blitzkrieg carried his forces swiftly beyond Leningrad until they stalled, froze, and shriveled at Stalingrad.
The Guns of August: Ukraine Blasts a Path Into Russia
In early August, Ukraine did something predicted by no one — it ordered significant numbers of troops into Russia. That was enough to have Vladimir Putin and his aides meeting in a crisis session and his generals scrambling to find units to fight on the new front. What does it signal? Is it a brilliant counterstroke, offering relief to Ukrainian forces forced into a series of retreats in Donbas, or a risky gamble using well-equipped units for little more than public relations bragging rights?
NATO Wakes Up to the Chinese Threat
There is a sobering wind of change in the air. The Russian threat, once minimized by European politicians, is clear; US politics may become more insular and less willing to fund European security while growing cooperation between China’s communists and the Kremlin has made the issues of Asian security increasingly inseparable from European security. This is a difficult landscape for anyone to navigate, but European countries might find a way if they’re willing to reconsider the fundamentals.
Allies and Open Sources: Lessons From Northern Raven
“It’s not my work. It is my existence.” This simple statement from a Latvian captain participating in the Northern Raven combined collection operation clarified the grave importance he, and many of his fellow analysts from the Baltics, placed on this particular mission. To them, Russia is an existential threat, and the insight this week-long combined open-source intelligence collection operation—the largest in NATO’s history—provided was critical to understanding Russian actions and intentions.
Allies and Open Sources: Lessons from Northern Raven, the Largest OSINT Collection Operation in NATO’s History
“It’s not my work. It is my existence.” This simple statement from a Latvian captain participating in the Northern Raven combined collection operation clarified the grave importance he, and many of his fellow analysts from the Baltics, placed on this particular mission. To them, Russia is an existential threat, and the insight this week-long combined open-source intelligence collection operation—the largest in NATO’s history—provided was critical to understanding Russian actions and intentions.
China-Russia Axis Heralds an Ominous Future
China-Russia Axis Heralds an Ominous Future The world’s great autocratic powers are taking clear aim at the U.S. and its allies. Increasingly, they represent a unified threat. Read Full Article »
Needed Now: A Crash Program for US Defense Production
Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine has revealed glaring deficiencies in ammunition stocks and production across the West, including the US. The rates at which munitions have been expended by both Russia and Ukraine have exposed the inadequacy of current US production targets, eliciting a steady drumbeat of “empty bins” warnings by US military leadership and analysts alike.
The China-Russia Axis Moves Into High Gear
Many have warned of a developing China-Russia axis following the countries’ announcement of a “no-limits” partnership last year, just as Vladimir Putin was poised to launch an all-out war on Ukraine. Some, including Putin, have denied any intention of creating a military alliance, even as the two countries announce closer military ties. It would be brave, bordering on foolish, to accept his word.
Political Chrysalis Emerges from Poland’s Election
Poland’s government will very likely change as a result of the October 15 elections. The three main three opposition groups gained 248 seats in the lower house, or Sejm, where 231 are required for a majority. The governing Law and Justice party (PiS) lost almost 40 seats and ended up with 194. Turnout, at almost 75%, was the highest in a free election since 1919.
Ukraine’s Two-Front War
The recent decision by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to relieve Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov of his duties may have seemed abrupt, but it wasn’t completely unexpected.
Putin Points Nuclear Weapons at NATO: Time To Respond
Putin Points Nuclear Weapons at NATO: Time To Respond The transparently aggressive decision to move Russian nuclear weapons hundreds of kilometers westward cannot be left unanswered. Read Full Article »
Putin Points Nuclear Weapons at NATO: Time to Respond
July 17, 2023 The transparently aggressive decision to move Russian nuclear weapons hundreds of kilometers westward cannot be left unanswered. President Lukashenka of Belarus announced in June that Russia had begun delivering tactical nuclear weapons to his country, boasting in an interview for the Rossiya-1 television channel that the charges were “three times more powerful” than the atomic bombs the United States dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
Is Russia About to Crumble (Again . . . )?
Is Russia About to Crumble (Again . . . )? Russian history shows its autocratic system fares badly when confronted with military defeat Read Full Article »
Is Russia About to Crumble (Again . . . )?
June 28, 2023 Russian history shows its autocratic system fares badly when confronted with military defeat. After months of explosive outbursts against the country’s top military brass and its poorly prosecuted war against Ukraine, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the owner and commander of the Wagner paramilitary group and a former close ally of Vladimir Putin, moved from threats to action.
Don't Count Russia Out, Its Military Has Vastly Improved
Don't Count Russia Out, Its Military Has Vastly Improved
Russia’s Military Has Improved - The West Should Take Note
May 16, 2023 The world has learned more about Russia’s armed forces in the last 15 months than in the previous 20 years. Now it needs to understand that Russia is adapting. The army that Russia took into Ukraine in February 2022 was clearly not fit for purpose, even if neither Moscow nor Washington recognized it at the time. The limits of the Kremlin’s force of arms were laid bare.
Ukraine’s Offensive: Why it May Be Decisive
May 2, 2023 Out of sight of the media and the Russians, Ukraine’s forces are preparing for a major military engagement with a possibly historic outcome. Seemingly unconnected military engagements across Ukraine in recent weeks — including Russian missile strikes and Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistical installations — signal that the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive is likely imminent.
Like it or Not, the US Faces a Russia-China Axis
March 31, 2023 The US worries that China is about to supply Russia with weapons and ammunition. But the Beijing-Moscow alliance is already a danger. There is much dispute about what China has sent to aid Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, and what it might send in the future. While the administration has warned against such deliveries, some already seem to be underway. Whatever China’s defense, assault rifles aren’t really hunting weapons and body armor isn’t needed to protect against wildlife.
Berlin jest "spóźnialski", więc Warszawa przejmuje pałeczkę. Polska nowym liderem NATO w Europie. "Stała się kluczowym sojusznikiem USA"
Zbliża się pierwsza rocznica wojny w Ukrainie, która nieustannie zmienia europejską politykę. W rezultacie centrum europejskiego przywództwa przesuwa się na wschód — przede wszystkim w kierunku Polski. Polski rząd stał na czele starań mających na celu zorganizowanie tak zwanej koalicji "free-the-Leos" (tłum.
NATO’s new center of gravity
Chels Michta is a non-resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and a military intelligence officer serving in the U.S. Army. The war in Ukraine, now approaching its first anniversary, is continually changing European politics. And as a result, the hub of European leadership is trending eastward — most obviously toward Poland.
The Menace of a Deepening China-Russia Axis
China Europe's Edge Regional Security Russia November 28, 2022 The last nine months of war in Ukraine should have put to rest any doubts that the Russia-China partnership constitutes a de facto anti-US alliance. Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping before an extended-format meeting of heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit (SCO) member states in Samarkand, Uzbekistan September 16, 2022.
Putin Says the Gloves Are Off - Believe Him
Europe's Edge Hybrid Threats Regional Security Russia October 18, 2022 The words from Russia’s leader are clear enough. We must listen to what he says, and act accordingly. Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during annual news conference in Moscow, Russia December 20, 2018. Credit: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo It is always risky to project outcomes in war based on the current state and conditions on the battlefield (bad for Russia and getting worse.).
Finland Gets Russia: So Listen
September 23, 2022 The country brings highly valuable assets to NATO, not least an understanding of Russia and a determination to fight. Ever since Sweden and Finland declared their intent to join NATO, the two have been treated as a package — former neutrals whose decision to enter the alliance runs counter to their strategic culture and will likely remake the security environment from the European High North down to the Baltic Sea. The impact of these decisions cannot be overstated.
Poland and the EU - Irresistible Force, Meet Immovable Object
Last week the country’s Constitutional Court declared that an order by the EU’s Court of Justice (ECJ) to suspend the operations of a panel created to discipline judges violated Poland’s constitution. The Polish government has said it will not change the structure and functioning of the panel in response to the ECJ’s demands. The ECJ first called for the panel’s suspension last year at the request of the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm.
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