Founder of siphtor.com, two time winner of Lifetime Achievement awards. Coined the phrase Galaxy Brain and proud University of North Alaska graduate
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Articles by Christopher Balding
How Will the Iran-Israel Conflict Affect China?
Commentary With the Israeli attacks on Iran unfolding, it is worth asking how these events will impact China. As a country closely aligned with and linked to China in various ways, changes in Iran could be felt well beyond Tehran, all the way to Beijing. Christopher Balding Author Christopher Balding was a professor at the Fulbright University Vietnam and the HSBC Business School of Peking University Graduate School. He specializes in the Chinese economy, financial markets, and technology.
Creating Two Trade Spheres in the World
AD 5/30/2025Updated: 5/30/2025 Commentary Since the Trump administration rolled out its “Liberation Day” tariffs, many questions have arisen about the specific objectives and the reasons behind these actions. Christopher Balding Author Christopher Balding was a professor at the Fulbright University Vietnam and the HSBC Business School of Peking University Graduate School. He specializes in the Chinese economy, financial markets, and technology.
Breaking Down the US-China Trade Deal
Commentary The Chinese Communist Party and the Trump administration sounded triumphant in announcing a trade deal. Both sides returned to their capitals, touting what they had achieved. Realistically, it was less of a trade agreement and more of a cease-fire or a cessation of hostilities. The United States and China had engaged in an ongoing series of escalations that had raised tariffs into the triple digits, effectively acting as a trade embargo.
The Economics of Trade Wars
Commentary As President Donald Trump announced this week that he was going forward with a more than 100 percent tariff on China and a 10 percent tariff on the rest of the world, pending a 90-day negotiation period, the world and financial markets seemed to breathe a sigh of relief. Common belief holds that any tariff is negative; however, the reality is more nuanced and not necessarily what conventional wisdom holds.
Can China Stimulate Consumption?
Commentary Setting aside the geopolitical challenges of a Trump presidency, Beijing faces a difficult economic environment. While official data proclaim a 5 percent growth rate, almost no one, including ardent supporters, believes the veracity of those numbers. Many analysts advocate for a transition toward balanced growth by enhancing consumption, as current investments heavily depend on state funding to promote growth.
Trump’s Turn to Asia
Commentary There’s never a dull moment in the Trump administration, as there has been a pause in tariffs on Canada and Mexico as they negotiate specific issues to remain on good terms. Now, it appears the Trump administration is turning its focus to Asia, specifically China and, to a lesser degree, Taiwan. The question becomes, what is the end game Trump is playing, and what does he really want?
DeepSeek, le moment Sputnik de l’Amérique ? | Epoch Times
Le monde de la technologie et la concurrence entre les États-Unis et la Chine ont été bouleversés lorsqu’une entreprise technologique chinoise relativement inconnue a récemment mis sur le marché un modèle open-source qui a rapidement surpassé ses concurrents américains les plus importants, tant en termes de qualité que d’efficacité des ressources.
Comment agissent les agents de Pékin
L’influence bien cachée et subtile que le régime chinois tente d’exercer sur les Occidentaux est une préoccupation constante des États démocratiques dans le cadre de la guerre froide non déclarée avec la Chine. Trop souvent, les habitants des pays démocratiques pensent que les opérations d’influence chinoises sortent d’un film de James Bond, alors qu’en réalité Pékin mène surtout un large éventail d’opérations visant à encadrer les discours sur la Chine.
Comment la Chine voit le monde
Les responsables de la sécurité et de la défense d’Asie et d’autres régions du monde se sont réunis à Singapour pour la conférence Shangri-La Dialogue, tenue du 31 mai au 2 juin. Ce forum annuel, au cours duquel les responsables échangent leurs points de vue et discutent de questions de sécurité urgentes, peut également laisser entendre des opinions les plus directes sur la vision du monde par la Chine.
Pourquoi l’inflation est-elle nécessaire à la Chine, mais impossible à obtenir ? | Epoch Times
Les économistes et le grand public considèrent généralement que l’inflation est une mauvaise chose. L’inflation érode le pouvoir d’achat, rendant les biens et les services plus chers en termes réels et rendant les gens moins sûrs de leurs décisions futures, telles que les investissements ou le lieu de travail. Or, la Chine souffre du problème inverse, à savoir la stagnation des prix à la suite de baisses récentes. Alors, si la Chine a besoin d’inflation, pourquoi ne peut-elle pas en obtenir ?
What to Do About Chinese Subsidies?
We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE. Commentary China likes to claim that it has become a manufacturing powerhouse due to its industry’s competitiveness and the ruthlessness of one of the world’s largest markets. However, the reality is decidedly not as favorable to the supposed brutality of “free market socialism” that China likes to portray. How much have subsidies and financial assistance from Beijing helped Chinese firms?
Commission européenne : La Chine doit être considérée comme une « économie d’État » | Epoch Times
Depuis des décennies, les décideurs politiques et les analystes s’interrogent sur le type d’économie auquel appartient la Chine. La réponse à cette question a d’importantes implications politiques et juridiques, notamment sur la façon dont nous comprenons l’économie chinoise. L’Europe semble avoir enfin répondu à cette question pour elle-même et pour le monde.
Foreign Investment in China and the Evergrande Scandal
We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE. Commentary As China faces a sluggish economy and pressures on tech firms from U.S. sanctions, Beijing continues to tout its ongoing struggle to open its economy and country. However, Evergrande provides a lesson on why foreign firms are reluctant to do business with the Middle Kingdom. Evergrande is a Chinese real estate developer with almost all its business assets in mainland China.
Christopher Balding, Author at The American Mind
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The Relevance and Irrelevance of Evergrande
We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE. Commentary There are so many problems with the Chinese economy and real estate sector that it becomes easy to both overstate and understate the importance of events. Understanding events as they unfold directs the analytical framework, so it is essential to tune our understanding of the recent order of liquidation by a Hong Kong court on Evergrande.
名家專欄:中共無法遵守其達成的任何協議
2023年11月16日，在加州舊金山市莫斯克尼（Moscone）中心舉行的亞太經合組織（APEC）峰會期間，包括喬‧拜登總統（前中）在內的世界各國領導人集體合影留念後離開會場。 英文大紀元專欄作家Christopher Balding撰文／信宇編譯 本月中旬，2023年亞太經合組織（Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation，簡稱APEC）峰會在加利福尼亞州舊金山（San Francisco）舉行。在APEC峰會期間，美國總統喬‧拜登與中共黨魁習近平舉行雙邊會晤，會後宣布雙方達成了多項協議，涉及從芬太尼到人工智慧等多個主題。然而，我們從以往的經驗中得知，什麼時候與中共達成的協議才算是真正的協議呢？ 從歷史上看，美國兩黨和各時期總統的一大痛點就是中共政權似乎無法遵守其達成的任何協議。從2001年中國加入世界貿易組織（World Trade Organization，簡稱WTO）開始，從小布希到拜登，歷任總統都抱怨中共似乎拒絕遵守與美國達成的協議。正如一位談判代表在談到與中共達成協議時所說的那樣，你與中共達成的不是一年的協議，而是365個一天有效的協議。...
La Chine communiste, éternelle énigme
La Chine proclame au monde les vertus de son économie de marché socialiste. Elle souhaite bénéficier des avantages et des bienfaits d’une économie de marché tout en exerçant le contrôle d’un communisme autoritaire, rigide et centralisé. Là réside l’éternelle énigme de cette gouvernance. La Chine se débat pour savoir comment réduire les risques d’endettement des provinces et des sociétés immobilières lourdement endettées.
Communist China’s Eternal Conundrum
We support our Publishers and Content Creators. You can view this story on their website by CLICKING HERE. The latest real estate firm in the market crosshairs is the Shenzhen-based developer Vanke. Commentary China proclaims to the world the virtues of its socialist market economy. It wants the benefits and blessings of a market economy with all the control of rigid, centralized authoritarian communism. Herein lies the eternal conundrum of governance.
Revelando la sombra de China sobre el conflicto entre Israel y Hamás
Análisis de noticias Los trágicos acontecimientos en Israel y Gaza iniciados por Hamás, respaldada por Irán, han desatado una ola de terror que repercute en todo el mundo. Dado el apoyo histórico de Rusia e Irán a grupos y estados que atacan a Israel, existen preguntas sin respuesta sobre la participación o los vínculos externos de estos países. Debido al apoyo chino a Irán y a Rusia, deberíamos examinar aquí los vínculos de las empresas chinas con grupos clave en este ámbito.
Le sauvetage des banques chinoises commencent
Alors que les banques chinoises grincent et gémissent sous le poids des demandes de prêts et des niveaux importants de créances douteuses non déclarées, ce n’était plus qu’une question de temps avant que les sauvetages bancaires par le gouvernement ne commencent. Eh bien, justement ils ont commencé.
Comienzan los rescates bancarios en China
Opinión A medida que los bancos chinos crujían y gemían bajo el peso de las crecientes exigencias de concesión de préstamos y las grandes cantidades de préstamos dudosos no declarados, sólo era cuestión de tiempo que comenzaran los rescates bancarios. Pues bien, los rescates bancarios en China comenzaron. A pesar de la hipérbole sobre los riesgos sin precedentes para el sistema financiero chino por parte de los expertos, un sistema bancario chino raquítico y los rescates tienen muchos precedentes.
Pourquoi les investissements étrangers quittent la Chine et ce que cela signifie
Les investisseurs étrangers fuient la Chine. Les investissements de portefeuille, qui se traduisent par des actions et des obligations dont le motif est financier, sont devenus négatifs, tout comme les investissements directs étrangers, qui servent à la création ou au développement d’usines et d’entreprises. Pourquoi les investisseurs sont-ils soudainement devenus si réticents à l’égard de la Chine ? Quel impact cela aura-t-il sur l’économie chinoise à long terme ?
Por qué la inversión extranjera abandona a China y qué significa esto
Opinión Los inversores extranjeros huyen de China. La inversión de cartera que fluye hacia acciones y bonos negociados se ha vuelto negativa, al igual que la inversión extranjera directa, que se destina a la construcción de plantas y empresas. ¿Por qué los inversores se han vuelto de repente tan negativos respecto a China? ¿Qué impacto tendrá esto en la economía china a largo plazo?
Le malaise économique chinois est-il cyclique ou structurel ?
L’économie chinoise traverse une année difficile. Après les mesures de confinement adoptées pour le Covid-19 en 2022, les analystes s’attendaient à ce que l’année 2023 soit dynamique et que la demande de consommation et de biens immobiliers stimule les perspectives économiques chinoises. Puis, la dure réalité de l’année 2023 – de la chute des échanges commerciaux à la faillite des promoteurs – s’est imposée à la deuxième économie mondiale.
Pourquoi Pékin ne stimule-t-il pas l’économie chinoise ?
L’économie chinoise ralentit. Que l’on accepte les données officielles selon lesquelles la Chine « ralentira » à 5 % de croissance en 2023 ou que l’on s’intéresse aux données non officielles sur la situation, tout le monde s’accorde à dire que l’économie chinoise est en difficulté. Selon les manuels d’économie, lorsqu’une économie ralentit, le gouvernement intervient et augmente les dépenses publiques pour stimuler l’activité et réduire la gravité du ralentissement.
The Biggest Problem China Faces Isn’t Real Estate
Commentary After it joined the World Trade Organization in 2000 and anchored the Chinese yuan (a.k.a. renminbi) to the U.S. dollar, China linked its economy to the United States. Enforcing a fixed exchange rate regime with strict capital controls, China benefited from large inflows and relatively low-interest rates due largely to the low-interest rate environment in the United States. What happens to the Chinese economy when interest rates increase in the United States?
Can China Transition to a Consumption Economy?
Commentary The great economist Michael Pettis at Tsinghua University has noted for years the importance for the Chinese economy to shift its growth dependency away from investment and toward greater consumption. As China faces its weakest sustained economic period in modern history, it bears worth asking, can China shift toward a more consumer-focused economy? The Chinese economy is unique among major economies due to its low share of the household sector within the macroeconomy.
Why Isn’t China Stimulating Its Economy and What Does This Mean?
Commentary For much of the past 10 to 15 years, the Chinese economy followed a familiar boom and bust pattern, even if the official GDP data was suspiciously straight. Central government authorities would flood the market with fiscal and monetary stimulus until activity began to run too hot and then tighten money. Authorities engaged in this financial engineering to drive economic growth to elevated target levels while always trying to smooth out the risks in either direction.
The State of Banks in China
News Analysis The state of banks in China dominates concerns about the economy and global growth. With pictures of angry crowds outside banks and tanks on the street in one city to quell discontent about being unable to withdraw funds, it bears asking what the true state of Chinese banks is. Officially, Chinese banks are in fine shape. Nonperforming loans are low and are disposed of in a controlled manner.
China May be Collecting Data Through Smart Coffee Machines
American researcher Christopher Balding claims he uncovered evidence that China is collecting data through smart coffee machines made in that country, The Washington Times reported. Balding's report at New Kite Data Labs said internet-connected coffee machines are part of a broader data-collection effort aimed at Internet of Things (IoT) devices with low security and unclear data policies.
Will Chinese Firms in America Agree to Follow US Laws?
Commentary The United States has the most open capital markets in the world where firms come to raise capital. The one clear requirement is that firms follow the laws, rules, and regulations on U.S. securities and finance. Beijing is fighting to see if its firms raising capital in the United States can avoid this basic requirement. For all the talk of the declining importance of the U.S. economy and the dollar, the United States remains the preeminent global financial market.
Auditing Takes Center Stage, Especially in China
Commentary The world of financial auditing is rarely the center of attention. In fact, most auditors operate under the simple premise that no news is good news. In China, auditing is at the center of a major problem for real estate developers and the Chinese stock markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Auditors are required for most companies raising capital on public debt or equity markets anywhere in the world. The auditor’s role is to double-check and confirm companies’ financial statements.
The Slow Motion Evergrande Wreck
Commentary Corporate bankruptcies in the United States work under very well-defined laws and procedures about who gets paid, in what order, and based upon contractual or implied understanding. In China, bankruptcies remain the largely wild rule of the jungle matters that can take years of behind-closed-door fighting to divvy up corporate carcasses. Evergrande and the entire real estate sector in China is becoming the case study for Chinese and Western investors.
China Remakes Global Markets
Commentary Away from the battlefields of Ukraine, a battle is taking place on a global exchange for what exactly constitutes a market and their rules. China, long known for manipulating its domestic market and cheating on global markets, is taking that to a new level by protecting Chinese firms from trading losses.
Thread by @BaldingsWorld on Thread Reader App
ICYMI, here is my latest paper with my new think tank New Kite Data Labs. In this paper, we cover the case of a Chinese military civil fusion firm who has exfiltrating data from high value networks like US military and European universities. Are major findings are: 1/n 1.
The Need for Transparency in the China Initiative
Commentary Almost since its creation, the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) China Initiative, which targets law enforcement actions against threats from China, has been subject to criticism. Critics’ primary complaints stem from what they see as the potential for racial profiling. How can the U.S. government target an authoritarian government—which is actively looking to exploit openness with multiple agencies targeting overseas Chinese and sending hidden state agents—while avoiding racial profiling?
Does the America COMPETES Act Really Help America Compete?
Commentary A great aspect of American democracy is that legislation text is transparent and readily available for anyone to review before representatives vote on the bill. With Congress passing the America COMPETES Act on Feb. 4 and heading to the Senate, it is worth going through the legislation and see what is actually in the bill and whether it will help America compete better, specifically against China. Before starting, there are a couple of limiting parameters in this exercise.
The Demographic Collapse of China
Commentary Even as China announced slowing growth and its plans to boost growth after the Lunar New Year, it could not hide the collapse in demographics. For many years, as growth continued to roar ahead, bureaucrats wondered whether China would get rich before it got old. China already is old and will face a falling population, if not already. This will define the future of China and its place in the world.
What Happens If China Hits 5 Percent Growth?
News Analysis As China prepares for the muted Lunar New Year celebrations due to Omicron, it faces its largest challenges to economic growth. With 2022 the Communist Party version of an election year—a time when growth is typically boosted and credit loosened—China faces some of the deepest challenges to growth it has faced in some time. With 2021 growth forecast to come in around 5 percent, serious questions exist over how China will reach that level of growth in such a challenging environment.
How Do We Deal With Non-Traditional Chinese Threats?
Commentary The conviction of Harvard University professor Charles Lieber on fraud charges seems to have prompted more questions about how America should respond to non-traditional Chinese threats. While the Chinese regime presents an unparalleled breadth and depth of threats both traditional and non-traditional, America struggles to deal with them. How do we maintain our American system of openness and address an enemy that seeks to use that very openness against us?
What to Watch in China 2022
Commentary The year 2021 seemed to present a never-ending stream of worrying events out of China, from stock market delistings to floods and COVID-19. The good news, though, is that 2022 promises to be even better. So what are the events and big stories we should be watching for in 2022? The big story in China 2022 is the expected “election” of Chairman Xi Jinping to an unprecedented third term, officially breaking with Communist Party tradition after the Great Helmsman Mao Zedong.
The Freedom to Believe
Commentary Freedom is nothing if not the freedom of personal belief. More integral to concepts of freedom than even bodily integrity or corporate behavior, the right of belief extends into deeply personal spaces where states exercise no authority. For a world weary of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and never ending anxiety over everything from virus variants to military actions, the Christmas season brings hope and lessons about what free societies must represent.
China Makes Basic Business Data National Security Risks
News Analysis The world’s understanding of China increasingly resembles the old Soviet Union joke: the authorities pretend they are paying wages, workers pretend they are working. China blocking basic business data threatens to shut them off from the world even more. For years, as China printed unreliable economic data, changed it whimsically, or censored it altogether, investors were content to carry on pretending in the unrequited hopes of economic payoff.
China’s Data Play
News Analysis Beijing is quietly overhauling how Chinese firms handle data and these changes are likely to have global implications. The management of how firms handle data has historically drawn little interest. But with the advent of internet connected devices that can track or measure virtually every movement, governments have taken an increasing interest in who is managing what and where data is stored.
China’s Collection of Data on Foreigners Is a National Security Risk
China operates a techno-surveillance state collecting vast amounts of data domestically to ensure social stability. Using tactics from facial recognition programs to monitoring messages between friends, China maintains a large network of data collection points and management systems that allows government officials to monitor anyone in China at almost any time. But significantly less has been written about how China collects data that enable it to monitor foreign individuals and institutions.
Thread by @BaldingsWorld on Thread Reader App
Since real estate tax in China has people buzzing let me explain why virtually everything you're reading is thimble deep & missing the enormity of the importance and risks it is exacerbating. This may be a long thread. I will try and include links and will use simple examples 1/n Let's start by positing that as a method of financing government revenue a yearly tax based upon some pre-defined measure say assessed value of the property is a much better method than land sales.
Understanding Xi in the Shadow of Gorbachev - Balding's World
A fundamental question that is puzzling most serious and casual China observers is why Chairman Xi is taking China in a more authoritarian and nationalist direction. Explanations have ranged from the psychological of his childhood to the political view that it was a response to Trump’s toughening of US policy to China. While these issues may contribute to the end result the more obvious answer is more direct and more troubling.
Revisiting Huawei - Balding's World
It has been brought to my attention that some Chinese academic has written a paper attempting to refute the paper Donald Clarke and I wrote about Huawei ownership which is now being promoted by Chinese state media affiliates. I have neither the time nor inclination to respond in detail to such a self contradictory illogical factually devoid piece of work but I will lay out merely a couple of problems.
Report on Biden Activities with China - Balding's World
A number of months ago, I was approached by an individual I had known for the better half of a decade. I had known this individually professionally and enjoyed their company and deep insight into our overlapping professional interests. Consequently, I would not infrequently seek out their professional opinion. They had written a research report for a client worried about political risk that involved background on the Biden’s in China.
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