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Articles by Christopher M. Dougherty
Strange Debacle: Misadventures in Assessing Russian Military Power
Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine has befuddled most defense analysts and Russia experts. They expected Russia’s larger and better-equipped forces would quickly dispatch Ukraine’s military and force its government to surrender. Instead, Ukrainian resilience has bested Russian incompetence, creating an initial Ukrainian upset that has now settled into brutal, attritional combat in the Donbas.
What the Experts Got Wrong (and Right) About Russian Military Power
May 30, 2022 It is now widely understood that many observers, in advance of this war, over-estimated Russian military performance and underestimated Ukrainian military performance. Prominent among those observers are those who specialize in analyzing the Russian military.
Solving the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy
July 22, 2021 Special guest Chris Dougherty joins Chris and Melanie to discuss his recent War on the Rocks article, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy.” Dougherty notes that “a series of decisions (and indecisions) decades in the making have backed the Navy into a budget and force-planning corner,” and he describes the competing interests that drive different (and rarely complementary) force requirements.
Explaining the Navy's Strategic Bankruptcy
The U.S. Navy is on the verge of strategic bankruptcy. Its fleet isn’t large enough to meet global day-to-day demands for naval forces. Due to repeated deployments and maintenance backlogs, the fleet also isn’t ready enough to meet these demands safely, nor can it quickly surge in an emergency. Finally, the fleet isn’t capable enough to meet the challenges posed by China’s increasingly modern and aggressive People’s Liberation Army Navy.
Gradually and Then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” – Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises The U.S. Navy is on the verge of strategic bankruptcy. Its fleet isn’t large enough to meet global day-to-day demands for naval forces. Due to repeated deployments and maintenance backlogs, the fleet also isn’t ready enough to meet these demands safely, nor can it quickly surge in an emergency.
Short-Term Action Items for Lloyd Austin’s Pentagon
The Pentagon has elephantine inertia. Its size, the complexity of its missions, and the lead times of its processes combine to shrug off attempts to alter its trajectory. For a new administration, such as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the initial cadre of political appointees at the Defense Department, four years can seem like ample time to wrestle the bureaucracy into compliance with its priorities.
It’s Time to Rethink Our Wargames
National security practitioners held several high-profile pandemic wargames and exercises in the years prior to the outbreak of COVID-19. Often, these games eerily predicted events in the current pandemic, along with the policy hurdles the government has faced. Instead of serving as a clarion call for preparedness or guiding the response, however, these games have become an ironic historical footnote. What lessons should the wargaming and policy communities take from this experience?
Hong Kong Protests Escalate Amid Crackdown
August 13, 2019 By Daniel Kliman, Kristine Lee, Chris Dougherty, Elsa B. Kania, Kara Frederick, and Ainikki Riikonen The standoff between the Beijing-backed government of Hong Kong and protesters concerned about an erosion of the city's autonomy continues to intensify.
Strategy or Straitjacket? Three Reasons Why People Are Still Arguing About the National Defense Strategy
“It feels so weird to not intervene in the Middle East. I know we’re trying to avoid getting sucked in, but it’s hard to say no.” These were the words my colleague uttered during a wargame to inform the development of the National Defense Strategy. He supported a shift toward competition with China and Russia and he knew that repeated operations in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility would detract from that aim.
Living on the Edge: Strengthening American Competitiveness
But to do that seriously, and to come up with the right approaches, requires the courage to ask the tough questions. That’s what we are going to do during our proceedings today. We are going to ask new, difficult questions and then explore the right answers. At think tanks, and in government, the best questions are often nuanced ones, and the best answers complicated.
Interactive Tabletop Exercise on the Future of Iran’s Nuclear Program
June 14, 2019 By Eric Brewer, Ilan Goldenberg, Elizabeth Rosenberg and Nicholas Heras Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Print Middle East experts Nicholas A. Heras, Eric Brewer, and Elizabeth Rosenberg join Ilan Goldenberg at the 2019 CNAS National Security Conference for an interactive tabletop exercise about the future of Iran's nuclear program.
Strategy to Ask
May 29, 2019 Analysis of the 2020 Defense Budget Request By Susanna V. Blume Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Print Download PDF Executive Summary The defense establishment is enjoying a period of bipartisan agreement on the need to prioritize strategic competition with China and Russia. Recent strategies from both the Obama and Trump administrations have articulated this direction.
Measures of Power
Andrew Walter Marshall, a former strategist at the RAND Corporation who served as head of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment from its founding in 1973 until his retirement in 2015, died last month at the age of 97. Despite his aversion to publicity and the innocuous title of the office he led, Marshall stands among the most consistent and perceptive contributors to U.S. national security and defense strategy since the United States emerged as a global power nearly 80 years ago.
Implementing the National Defense Strategy Demands Operational Concepts for Defeating Chinese and Russian Aggression
April 11, 2019 By Chris Dougherty Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Print Download PDF Summary The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) shifted the Department of Defense (DoD) away from a strategy focused on counterterrorism and deterring regional threats like Iran toward competing with, deterring, and, if necessary, defeating Chinese and Russian aggression.
The Influence of Commercial Space Capabilities on Deterrence
March 25, 2019 By John J. Klein Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Print Recent U.S. space policy initiatives underscore the far-reaching benefits of commercial space activities.
What to Expect When You're Expecting a Defense Budget Masterpiece
Susanna V. Blume & Christopher Dougherty, War on the Rocks March 11, 2019 In December of 2017, before the Department of Defense released its 2019 budget request, then-Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan tried to manage expectations about its contents. He argued that the National Defense Strategy, with its prioritization of competition with China and Russia, was so new that the Pentagon didn't have time to fully incorporate its precepts into the 2019 budget submission.
What to Expect When You’re Expecting a Defense Budget Masterpiece
In December of 2017, before the Department of Defense released its 2019 budget request, then-Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan tried to manage expectations about its contents. He argued that the National Defense Strategy, with its prioritization of competition with China and Russia, was so new that the Pentagon didn’t have time to fully incorporate its precepts into the 2019 budget submission.
A ‘crisis of national security’: New report to Congress sounds alarm
WASHINGTON — America’s military superiority has “eroded to a dangerous degree,” leaving the U.S. in a “crisis of national security,” especially if faced with more than one conflict at once, a new congressionally mandated report concluded. “The U.S. military could suffer unacceptably high casualties and loss of major capital assets in its next conflict,” reads the report, issued Wednesday by the National Defense Strategy Commission.
A shrinking budget can’t be allowed to kill modernization
For decades, the Pentagon, abetted by Congress, has behaved like a parent raiding a child’s college fund to pay monthly bills, rather than tightening its belt. Myopically robbing from critical long-term investments to pay for urgent needs resulted in the core problem addressed by the 2018 National Defense Strategy: America’s eroding military advantage against China and Russia.
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