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Articles by Chuck Knoblauch
This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank
DB's Jim Reid lays out the "endgame" scenario, one which this website first said is inevitable back in 2009. With Citi and Macquarie already on board, expect what was once merely the figment of a "deranged tinfoil conspiracy-theory blog's" imagination, to become global monetary policy. And yes, the real endgame is the one we have said from day one: total fiat (and conventional economics) collapse.
Deflation Warning: The Next Wave
The signs of deflation are now flashing all over the globe. In our estimation, the possibility of an associated financial crisis is now dangerously high over the next few months. As we’ve been saying for a while, our preferred model for how things are going to unfold follows the Ka-Poom! Theory as put out by Erik Janszen of iTulip.com.
Atlanta Fed Slashes Q3 GDP Estimate By 50% To Just 0.9%
Yesterday, when the Atlanta Fed boosted its Q3 GDP tracker from 1.4% to 1.8%, the permabulls were crowing how the global recession has been called off.
Recession Imminent - Kansas Becomes 6th Regional Fed Survey Flashing Red
And the regional Fed survey collapse goes on... Dallas, Richmond, New York, Philly, Chicago, and now Kansas City... Kansas Fed prints -8 (missing expectations of -6), now negative for the 7th month in a row... something not seen outside of a recession.
A Desperate Wal-Mart Demands Suppliers Pass Along Yuan Devaluation Savings
At Wal-Mart corporate, the idea of “everyday low costs” is something of a religion and it’s the cornerstone of the retail behemoth’s business model. Unfortunately for employees and suppliers alike, maintaining “the low cost leader” title isn’t consistent with high wages or leniency vis-a-vis the supply chain. That explains why, after committing to spend some $1 billion to raise the wages of its lowest-paid employees, the company moved immediately to squeeze more cost savings from suppliers.
"You're Welcome" - More Unintended Humor From The Economists At The St. Louis Fed
Back in November 2014, when the Fed had not yet admitted its third and fourth mandates were keeping the stock market as levitated as possible and responding to economic volatility and market turbulence in China (as it did last week) we made what we thought at the time was a sarcastic tweet, yet one which captured the gist of the September FOMC statement, when we said: While the accuracy of this tweet has since been confirmed by the Fed itself, one person took offense at the contents: the...
PIMCO's Balls On The Fed: There Will Be No Escape From ZIRP
Last month, the vice president of the St. Louis Fed Stephen D. Williamson did a funny thing: he released a white paper which dared to suggest that Ben Bernanke was wrong about QE and that not only was there no demonstrable link between trillions in asset purchases and positive economic outcomes, inflation expectations have actually declined across markets where central bank asset purchases are largest in terms of GDP.
Dow Futures Dump 320 Points - All Major Indices Now Underwater In 2015
“World where currencies are backed by nothing more than a governmental promise to pay while the printing presses whirled unchecked ...”
"We're All Dr.Evil Now"
DIY’s newest frontier is algorithmic trading. Spurred on by their own curiosity and coached by hobbyist groups and online courses, thousands of day-trading tinkerers are writing up their own trading software and turning it loose on the markets. Interactive Brokers Group actively solicits at-home algorithmic traders with services to support their transactions. YouTube videos from traders and companies explaining the basics have tens of thousands of views.
US Syria Strategy Officially Unravels: Kerry Admits Timetable For Assad Exit Is Completely Unknown
On Saturday we brought you the latest from Syria where the Assad regime’s rejuvenated forces carried out aggressive air raids on ISIS positions for a second consecutive day on Friday, striking targets in Idlib and Palmyra, the UNESCO heritage site that fell to Islamic State in May.
"What Does The Fed Know That We Don't" - Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Answers
In the aftermath of last week's FOMC "dovish hold" disappointment, it is not only the Fed that has seen its credibility crushed; so have plain-vanilla tenured economists and Wall Street strategists. Recall that it was on August 13, one month before last week's FOMC meeting, when 82% of economists said the Fed would hike in September. Post-mortem: more than four out of five economisseds were, as always, wrong.
Which Asset Class Will Be Most Impacted By A Rate Hike?
Going into Thursday, everyone - and we do mean everyone - is scrambling to predict which asset classes are most susceptible to a Fed hike. As we explained over the weekend, there’s quite a bit of ambiguity this time around and not just because a third of Wall Street has never seen a rate hike in their professional careers.
Refugee Crises At Dangerous Tipping Point As Hungary Makes Arrests, Germany Loses Patience
That’s from 17-year old Mohammed Al-Hamdan who made it across the Hungarian border with Serbia at a railroad crossing near the village of Roszke before it was closed on Tuesday.
Stunning Video Emerges As 1000s Flee California Wildfires After Governor Calls 'State Of Emergency'
As if the drought was not disheartening enough, wildfires are now raging across many parts of northen and southern California focing Governor Jerry Brown to call a state of emergency. Nowhere is the crisis more evident than in NorCal's Lake County where, as The LA Times reports, the untamed wildfire forced chaotic evacuations, is consuming hundreds of homes and businesses, and has outrun the efforts of a growing army of firefighters to corral it.
10,000 Syrians Are Headed For The Following 180 US "Refugee Processing Centers"
For the past several weeks it seemed as if Germany had truly become the promised land for Mideast asylum seekers, primarily those seeking to escape the Syrian civil (and global proxy) war, but according to various media reports, also a material number of "ISIS-linked terrorists." Then it all came crashing down earlier today when Germany's beloved by all refugees "Mutti" said genug, and with one decision shut down the border with Austria in the process unraveling decades of customs-union...
Iran Says It Finds "Unexpectedly High Uranium Reserve"
While we await for the Russian secret service to leak photos of Iran's Revolutionary Guard in Syria, thereby stirring the pot on the latest and greatest proxy war in the middle east, one which would promptly disintegrate any last remaining shred of "victory" from Obama's alleged coup in restoring relations with an Iran which couldn't even wait for the signing of the "Nuclear" deal before turning its back on Obama and siding with Putin in Syria, we were particularly amused to learn that just...
Apple's Bruised Presentation: A Warning Sign Rarefied Air Is Becoming Exhaust Fumes
On Wednesday of this past week Apple™ held its much-anticipated annual roll-out of new products and features to the Apple lineup. However, this latest presentation caused more head scratching as well as out right consternation than any in recent memory. There was one other, but I’ll get to that later when there’s more context as to compare. Whether it be within the confines of media reviews or tech blogs, it seems almost to a person the reaction to this latest event was anything but celebratory.
Dependence On Central Banks Is "Unrealistic And Dangerous", BIS Warns
To be sure, there’s something terribly ironic about the central bank for central banks telling the world that the market is too dependent upon central banks, but then again, the Bank for International Settlements isn’t exactly shy about making scary-sounding declarations and criticizing its board members (listed below) in its "closely-watched" (if only by those who are aware of the institution’s shadowy existence and give any credence to what they say) quarterly reviews.
100% Of US Economists Think China Is Lying About GDP Growth, WSJ Finds
Earlier today we got a look at fixed asset investment in China and the picture was most assuredly not pretty. Indeed, FAI growth was the weakest in 15 years, underscoring the degree to which China’s 7% headline GDP prints are at best a deficient deflator-assisted myth and at worst a figment of Xi’s imagination. Of course the idea that China fabricates its GDP data isn’t new.
US Futures Jump Unaware Gartman Short Has Been Stopped Out, China Hugs Flatline
Following a string of weak economic news out of both Japan and the US, it was China's turn to disappoint which it did over the weekend with the worst fixed-asset investment data - the primary driver of China's GDP - since 2000, as well as yet another miss in Chinese industrial output, just the latest two indications that China's economy is grinding to a halt if not slamming into reverse.
Lord Of The Flies: Dystopia Is Arriving
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero – Voltaire I was driving around Denver yesterday doing my “boots on the ground” due diligence scouting of the local housing market. I continue to see some “sold” and “under contract” signs but I’m seeing a pile-up forming in new “for sale,” “price reduced,” and “for rent” signs. The traffic update on the sports radio reported a back-up at an intersection in Denver caused by a fist-fight that had broken out between two drivers.
Why Stocks Are Ramping
Well, it's not the economy stupid: Since USDJPY lost its overnight "the BOJ will do more QE on October 30" momo-mojoo, the levered correlation algso switched to the other asset that was going up: crude oil. And that's the only, and ery simple, reason why your financial markets are being levitated this morning: S&P correlation algos: just tracking whatever is going up, tick for tick.
Guest Post: So You Really Want To Make "Syrian Refugees" An Election Issue?
Submitted by Mark Jeftovic via The Libertarian Party Of Canada, Thomas Pynchon once wrote: ‘If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don’t have to worry about the answers.’ Words to live by for the the major political parties in Canadian Federal politics.
WTI Crude Tumbles To $44 Handle (As Algos Forget US Closed)
Despite US markets being closed for Labor Day, WTI Crude futures traders algos appear to be following the post-EU close run-the-stops pattern. Despite rising tensions in the middle-east and China promising their market is stable, WTI Crude is down almost 4%, back to a $43 handle... Average: Your rating: None Average: 4.5 (2 votes)
A September Rate Hike Is "Not Even Close": Goldman's Seven Reasons Why Yellen Will Delay... Again
On one hand, every economist, virtual portfolio manager, Yahoo Finance Twitter expert, and TV talking head is certain that a September rate hike is inevitable. On the other hand, the bank that runs the NY Fed (and whose chief economist Jan Hatzius has dinner with NY Fed head Bill Dudley at the Pound and Pence every other month), Goldman Sachs is doubling down on its call that the Fed will not hike in September. We'll go with Goldman (only because in this case it really is a dumb vs dumber moment).
If You Think That Was A Crash...
Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog, Last week’s volatility to the downside was entirely predictable, as the first leg down during this ongoing market crash reached the correction stage of 11%. The technical bounce was a given, as the 30 year old HFT MBAs on Wall Street have been trained like rats to BTFD. In their lemming like minds, it has worked for the last six years of this Federal Reserve created “bull market”, so why wouldn’t it work now.
More Tapering? ECB Monetizes Fewest Bonds In August Since Start Of Q€
Back On May 19, ECB executive board member Benoit Couere caused a scandal of heretofore unseen proportions, when it was revealed that he had disclosed European central bank policy in private to a group of hedge funds almost 12 hours before the ECB publicly revealed a substantial shift in QE policy, namely that the central bank would front-load its program in May and June while slowing down monetization later in the summer.
Meanwhile In Brussels, Farmers Take On The Riot Police With "Hay Cannon"
As events unfold that have to be seen to be be believed in Belgian capital Brussels, European farmers - protesting plunging food prices, blamed on Russia's food embargo, which was retaliation to Europe and US sanctions - are demanding EU intervention to bail them out. What was originally a parade of tractors quickly turned violent as farm equipment rammed police barricades and police released tear gas and water jets in response to the farmers unleashing their "hay cannon." Boomerang anyone?
Just When You Thought It Couldn't Get Worse For Brazil...
Just when you’re sure - and we mean sure - that it can’t possibly get any worse, or at least not materially worse in the very short-term, something else happens to further underscore the deep, dark economic malaise plaguing one of the world’s most important emerging markets.
Did The Fed Intentionally Spark A Commodity Sell-off?
The intention here is the bring facts to light so the public can decide. I’m not quite sure what to believe on how and why oil prices remain more than 50 percent below free cash flow break even for most independent E&P companies. I know for sure it’s not just one reason and is more likely a confluence of events. Part of the reason oil prices broke new six-year lows is tied to hedge funds shorting equities and pressuring equity pricing through shorting oil.
The End Of "The Permanent Lie" Looms Large
Submitted by Satyajit Das via The Sydney Morning Herald, Like the characters in Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot, the world awaits the return of wealth and prosperity. But the global economy may be entering a period of stagnation. Over the last 35 years, the economic growth necessary to increase living standards, increase wealth and manage growing inequality has been based increasingly on rising borrowings and financial rather than real engineering. There was reliance on debt-driven consumption.
Dis-Integrating America
The Wednesday morning murders of 24-year-old Roanoke TV reporter Alison Parker and cameraman Adam Ward, 27, were a racist atrocity, a hate crime. Were they not white, they would be alive today. Their killer, Vester L. Flanagan II, said as much in his farewell screed. He ordered his murder weapon, he said, two days after the slaughter of nine congregants at the African-American AME church in Charleston, South Carolina. “What sent me over the top was the church shooting,” said Flanagan.
The Only Thing That Was Preventing A Rate Hike, Just Flashed A Rate Hike "Green Light"
Overnight, UBS' Drew Matus - who still expects a September rate hike - writes that while "domestic momentum seems strong enough to support the beginnings of policy normalization with a rate hike in September" and that "the FOMC's central tendency projections for domestic activity are generally being met", cautions that "foreign strains and their spillover into financial markets have lessened the likelihood of that hike." No surprises there, as this was merely a confirmation of what Bill...
Freeport-McMoRan Up Nearly 50% Today After Carl Icahn Goes Activist, Announces 8.5% Stake
One of the biggest casualties of the Chinese economic crash, and the resultant collapse in copper prices to 6 year lows, has been Phoenix-based copper mining giant Freeport-McMoRan, whose stock had cratered from a 52-week high of $36 to just under $8 as of a few days ago.
For Albert Edwards This Is The One Definitive Measure That "We Are Now In A Bear Market"
Over the years, Socgen's Albert Edwards has repeatedly expressed his skepticism of both the economy and the market (the longest US equity "bull market" since 1945) both propped up by generous central banks injecting liquidity by the tens of trillions (at this point nobody really knows the number now that the 'black box' that is China has entered the global "plunge protection" game) and yet never did he have as "conclusive" a call as he does today.
Caught On Tape - Chinese Investors This Week
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide It would be very wise of you to study our disclaimer, our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure. Here's our Cookie Policy.
Who Will Be The Bagholders This Time Around?
Anyone betting China's GDP is really expanding at 7% and the U.S. economy will grow by 3.7% next quarter is angling to be a bagholder. Once global assets roll over for good, it's important to recall that somebody owns these assets all the way down. These owners are called bagholders, as in "left holding the bag." Those running the rigged casino have to select the bagholders in advance, lest some fat-cat cronies inadvertently get stuck with losses.
Global Grain Stocks At 30 Year Highs Mean Food Deflation Is Next
Everywhere you look there’s still more evidence that the world economy is grappling with a global deflationary supply glut. To be sure, this wasn’t supposed to happen. Trillions in central bank cash and seven years of ZIRP across DMs was supposed to give a defibrillator shock to global demand and trade.
Former Greek FinMin Varoufakis Launches Pan-European Anti-Austerity Political Party
Varoufakis’ fans get ready! The ex finance minister is preparing to launch a European movement that will develop into a political party. Yanis Varoufakis will push for a Pan-?uropean network for fight austerity. Instead of running for the upcoming elections, he will put his energy into political action on European level.
China Stunner: Real GDP Is Now A Negative -1.1%, Evercore ISI Calculates
With Chinese data now an official farce even among Wall Street economists, tenured academics, and all others whose job obligation it is to accept and never question the lies they are fed, the biggest question over the past year has been just what is China's real, and rapidly slowing, GDP - which alongside the Fed, is the primary catalyst of the global risk shakeout experienced in recent weeks.
US Equity Markets Give Up China Rate Cut Gains
Stocks remain green but the pre-open surge on the back of a China rate cut has been erased as USDJPY rolls over... ..And it's gone... But remains green from the cash close...
Why The Bear Of 2015 Is Different From The Bear Of 2008
Are there any conditions now that are actually better than those of 2008? It's tempting to see similarities in last week's global stock market mini-crash and the monumental meltdown that almost took down the Global Financial System in 2008-2009. The dizzying drop invites comparison to the last Bear Market that took the S&P 500 from 1,565 in October 2007 to 667 on March 9, 2009. But this Bear is beginning in circumstances quite different from 2007-08. Let's list a few of the differences: 1.
Blood On The Streets: Down Dumps 1000 Points At Open, Biggest Drop Since Lehman
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide It would be very wise of you to study our disclaimer, our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure. Here's our Cookie Policy.
Peter Schiff Warns "The Fed Is Spooking The Markets, Not China"
Fasten your seat belts, this ride is getting interesting. Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 1,000 points, notching its worst weekly performance in four years. The sell-off took the Dow Jones down more than 10% from its peak valuations, thereby constituting the first official correction in four years. One third of all S&P 500 companies are already in bear market territory, having declined more than 20% from their peaks.
Deutsche Bank Sums It Up "The Fragility Of This Artificially Manipulated Financial System Was Finally Exposed"
Today's dose of vile tinfoil hattery magick comes straight from the bank with the cool $55 trillion or so in derivatives, Deutsche Bank: The fragility of this artificially manipulated financial system was exposed over the last couple of days of last week. It all ended with the S&P 500 falling -3.19% on Friday - its worst day since November 9th 2011.
iCrash? AAPL Down 6% In Pre-Open, Breaks Below "No Brainer" $100 Level
Gold fundamentals are tight, but not so much in silver. According to popular belief, the prices of the metals are supposed to move together. What happens when a trading thesis is believed by just...
Risk Appears Seriously Wounded
Stocks aren’t quite as immune to financial disruption in the middle of 2015 as they had been previously. The last major, comprehensive selloff was also in tandem with “dollar” disorder back last October 15. This time, the motion was more erosion than “event”; at least until the past week.
Futures Stumble Out Of The Gate, Slide 0.6% On Lack Of Chinese RRR Cut: What Happens Next?
On Friday, ahead of the closing stock rout, we forecast that the biggest risk for anyone staying long over the weekend was a disappointment out of China, where the sellside had gotten so excited that a 50-100bps RRR cut was imminent, that the lack of one would surely send futures sliding. Sure enough, as we noted earlier today, much to everyone's surprise and disappointment, the PBOC did nothing (for reasons we speculated upon earlier).
Gulf Markets Melting Down: Saudi Arabia Plunges 7%, Dubai Sold
Following the end of a horrible week for petroleum importers (not to mention shale producers) despite WTI briefly dipping under $40 (wasn't this supposed to be great news for the US economy?) we have the start of a just as ugly week for the Persian Gulf oil exporters, whose Sunday market open can be described as a continuation of last week's broad risk carnage, and where Saudi Arabia, until recently the region's best performing market, is now down 10% for the year and down 30% compared to 12...
Venezuela Announces Martial Law In Border State, Dispatches 1500 Soldiers
While Venezuela's collapse to a socialist singularity best defined by total economic devastation has been chronicled extensively here over the years... ... to the point where neither the country's hyperinflation, nor the total collapse of its currency... ...
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