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Clark Benham

As seen in: LessWrong (30+ Karma)
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Articles by Clark Benham

The effects of caffeine consumption do not decay with a ~5 hour half-life — LessWrong

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By Seth Herd, Clark Benham, Austin Weisgrau
| LessWrong (30+ Karma)
epistemic status: confident in the overall picture, substantial quantitative uncertainty about the relative potency of caffeine and paraxanthine tldr: The effects of caffeine consumption last longer than many assume. Paraxanthine is sort of like caffeine that behaves the way many mistakenly believe caffeine behaves. You've probably heard that caffeine exerts its psychostimulatory effects by blocking adenosine receptors. That matches my understanding, having dug into this.
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In Addition to Ragebait and Doomscrolling — LessWrong

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By Daniel Kokotajlo, Yoav Ravid, Clark Benham, Charlie Sanders
| lesswrong.com
(Sorry for the coy title--I want to give the reader a chance to guess what the addition is.) One day I opened up the front page of reddit. I was not signed in and I was using my browser's incognito mode. The following list composed about 25% of what I saw as I scrolled. See if you notice any themes.
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Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study) — LessWrong

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By Liam Donovan, Brendan Long, Viktor Rehnberg, Clark Benham
| lesswrong.com
I feel this is more "limits of PredictIt" rather than "limits of prediction markets". Doing the equivalent analysis for Betfair for someone in the UK. (2% charge on profits, no fee for withdrawing). Right now the market for Trump to win is (£1200) 2.78 / 2.80 (£7421) Those imply probabilities of 35.97% and 35.71% After fees, 36.44% and 35.00%. That's not a bad spread, and you can do this in much more size. (If you're willing to work a bit, you can comfortably get on £10,000s at prevailing levels).
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