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Articles by Comte d'herblay
Today's "Rally" Explained
What's more bullish than a cancelled POMO? Simple a reinstated POMO... And as POMO was restarted this afternoon, so VIX went into full panic noise mode once again... With the S&P 500 back at unchanged - we wonder what happens next?
Ignore Stocks, the REAL Crisis is Far Bigger and Far Worse
Investors today are focusing on the wrong asset class. Stocks started off the year with one of the worst drops in recent memory. As of this morning the S&P 500 was down over 7% for the year thus far. However, while stocks grab the headlines, it is the bond market that warrants the most attention. Firstly, size. The bond bubble is $100 trillion in size. To put this into perspective, the Tech Bubble, the single largest stock bubble in history relative to profits, was just $16 trillion in size.
Subprime Auto Canary: Deutsche Bank Probes Employees For "Exaggerating ABS Demand"
Perhaps more than anyone else, we’ve been keen on documenting the rise of subprime auto loans. Over the course of the last 12 months, data from Experian clearly shows that underwriting standards are falling in the industry as competition for a shrinking pool of eligible borrowers heats up. Note that this is the same dynamic that unfolded in the US housing market in the lead up to the crisis.
Gold & Silver Prices Will Surge On Fundamentals Not Technical Analysis
Hold your real assets outside of the banking system in a private international facility --> http://www.321gold.com/info/053015_sprott.html Posted with permission and written by Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL) Don’t be confused. Gold and silver prices will skyrocket in the future based on the fundamentals, not technical analysis. Not only will fundamentals be the important factor in the future, they have also been the leading indicators over the past 50 years.
For Caterpillar, The Depression Just Turned Three: CAT Hasn't Had A Sales Increase In 36 Consecutive Months
Earlier today Caterpillar reported its latest monthly retail sales statistics, and the numbers continue their deplorable trend: Asia/Pacific (mostly China) was down -17%,EAME dropping -5%, Latin America down -37%, the US down -5%, and global sales continuing their double digit decline for one more month down -11% in November.
A Big, Fat "Policy Error", Or Worse? Find Out Tomorrow
On Tuesday, the day before Yellen's historic rate hike, the S&P closed at 2,043. Today, the day after a Fed announcement which everyone cheered overnight as simply fantastic, perfect, "dovishly goldilocks", and countless other superlatives because it sent the market surging, the S&P closed at.... 2,042. In the process all the euphoric gains from the widely telegraphed Yellen announcement and press conference have been completely wiped out, not just for stocks... ...
Why One Congressman Voted "NO" On The Massive, Wasteful Omnibus Bill
Paul Anthony Gosar is an American Republican politician and member of the United States House of Representatives from Arizona since 2011, representing Arizona's 4th congressional district. Yesterday, Gosar took to his Facebook page to expose the reality of the massive Omnibus Spending Bill... and who is to blame...
Dow Completes 1000 Point Roundtrip
The Big Banks manipulate credit default swaps to perpetrate economic terrorism against other nations in the world, where they literally destroy the economies of those victim-nations. It used to be a...
Explaining The Stock Market Rebound In 1 Simple Chart
Many were stunned at the pace of the v-shaped recovery in US equity markets this week after Monday and Tuesday's carnage. However, as the following chart makes very clear, there was good reason for it... Having overshot to the downside of "Fed-Balance-Sheet-Implied" levels but around 100 S&P points, the broad index ripped back higher to almost perfectly settle at "Fed Fair Value" - between 1980 and 2000.
Futures Levitate After Greek Creditors Repay Themselves; Commodities Tumble To 13 Year Low
As we said in our Friday morning wrap, a low volume levitation coupled with a stronger dollar managed to lift stocks to yet another green close, while the Nasdaq soared to a new all time high on terrible breadth with decliners far outpacing advancers however it was all about Google which added in value more than the market cap of about 80% of S&P companies.
Introducing CSF: China's Half-Trillion Dollar, State-Controlled Margin Trading Frankenstein
The country’s "world-beating" equity bubble - which has served as a wonderful distraction from China’s decelerating economy and bursting property bubble - suddenly collapsed. Starting earlier this year and accelerating into June when the CDSC channelled its inner Ronald McDonald and cancelled the series, data out of China suggested that semi-literate farmers, housewives, and famously, banana vendors, were opening millions of new stock trading accounts each and every month.
WTI Tumbles Back To A $50 Handle On Iran, Default, And Cushing Build Fears
Having surged on Tuesday when the Iran "deal" was confirmed and tumbled yesterday despite inventory draws and production decreases, WTI crude is re-slumping back to a $50 handle this morning as traders cite more Iran concerns (flattening the curve) and a Genscape report that indicates inventory builds at Cushing once again... It appears the algos have been turned upside down... As we noted previously, worries over Shale Oil company indebtedness are resurging...
"Prove You're Not A False Prophet!"; Tsipras Lambasted At Fire And Brimstone European Parliament Session
Facing a new “deadline” (doomsday is now set for Sunday) to submit a viable proposal to EU creditors, Alexis Tsipras addressed the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday.
Artist's Impression Of The New Crusades?
I am called contagion, but that is not my name...
The Last Two Times This Happened, The Stock Market Crashed
The last two times when margin debt reversed and fell after a record-breaking spike, all hell broke loose. In 2000, it was simultaneous. In 2007, it was delayed by a few months. Today, on the surface, everything is still hunky-dory. The Dow is just fractions below its all-time high that it set on Wednesday. But beneath the surface, parts of the stock market are already coming unglued, and holders of momentum stocks have been eviscerated.
When Not To Go To Court (Spoiler: When The Judge Is Hungry)
With social unrest on the rise, knowing more about the judicial system is crucial for everyone... In the following chart, the dotted line represent food breaks. As is very clear, the best time to go to court is right after a food break (the circled points below indicate the first decision in each session) And the worst time to face the judge for your latest 'strike' - when he is hungry... Source: Extraneous Factors In Judicial Decision - PNAS
"I’m The First To Say: I Can’t Do It" - The Energy Junk-Bond Implosion Just Claimed Its First Victim
The universe of entities who have blown up in the past year trading oil and commodities is getting increasingly more crowded and includes among them such former luminaries as one-time oil trading god (if mostly in the eyes of Citigroup) Andy Hall.
Peak Central Planning: BofA Says Fed's Dudley "Does Not Want Stocks To Decline; Wants Bond Prices To Go Down"
Yesterday we got the latest confirmation of what the Fed will never openly admit and which everyone knows. Or rather, the Fed would never openly admit previously, namely that all it cares about are stock prices, or as we first dubbed it here a year ago, the Fed is "Dow Data Dependent." The admission came courtesy of Bill Dudley who during an interview yesterday said: In other words, the Fed's actions will be shaped by the market, which in turn is shaped by the Fed.
"I'm Not Stupid" Monsanto Lobbyist Refuses To Drink Weedkiller After Proclaiming "It Won't Hurt You"
"Do as I say, not as I do," appears to be the message from a controversial lobbyist who claimed that the chemical in Monsanto’s Roundup weed killer was safe for humans refused to drink his own words when a French television journalist offered him a glass... "I'm not stupid," he proclaims... you be the judge...
Words Matter - The Propagandists Know
Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform, In the age when torture has become "enhanced interrogation techniques"; when the rich are "job creators"; when austerity is rephrased as "reforms"; "scarcity" does not mean shortage; and when murdered children are "collateral damage"; it is good to remember these brilliant words from the late, great, George Carlin. Average: Your rating: None Average: 5 (7 votes)
Biotech Bubble Reaches Epic Proportions As Short Interest Rises
In January we noted that despite Janet Yellen’s “irrational exuberance” moment when, last summer, the Fed chair mentioned biotech as a sector where valuations looked “substantially stretched,” biotech stocks have continued their relentless ascent thanks in part to M&A deals worth 40 times sales and IPOs for pre-revenue companies. Now, with the sector still making new highs, the bubble chorus is getting louder.
How America Added 17 Million People In 7 Years... And Zero Full-Time Jobs
Amazing Math from the Bureau of Labor Statistics According to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics release, the UE (unemployment) rate fell to 5.5% as of February. The last time the UE rate was this low was May of 2008.
“Too Big To Fails” Have Stopped Being Banks
Banks don’t need deposits? They’re not giving many loans? Isn’t that what banks do? If they’re not collecting deposits and making loans, what are they doing? In reality, big banks aren’t really acting like banks anymore. Big banks do very little traditional banking, since most of their business is from financial speculation. For example, we noted in 2010 that less than 10% of Bank of America’s assets come from traditional banking deposits. The big banks are manipulating every market.
What Crispin Odey, And His $12.4 Billion In AUM, Thinks Are The 6 Risks Underpriced By The Market
We have some good news: we have found one more of the many, many hedge funds who bought into the biggest bandwagon trade of 2014, namely that the world is recovering and it is time - yet again - the short Treasurys.
Here Is The Reason For The "Surge" In Q3 GDP
Back in June, when we were looking at the final Q1 GDP print, we discovered something very surprising: after the BEA had first reported that absent for Obamacare, Q1 GDP would have been negative in its first Q1 GDP report, subsequent GDP prints imploded as a result of what is now believed to be the polar vortex.
Behold The Surge In Real October Earnings
Who says there is no wage growth in real (or nominal terms)? After real wages failed to rise in real terms on 6 of the past 7 months, here courtesy of the BLS is the unprecedented surge to real average hourly earnings that took place in October. A slightly longer-dated chart show that real wages are almost back to the level they held when the S&P was trading at 666. Trickling-down Keynesian masters of central-planning, we bow down to you. Average: Your rating: None Average: 5 (11 votes)
Tim Geithner: "It Was A F$&king Disaster In Europe"
The name Tim Geithner has mercifully disappeared from the front pages, and instead has receded into the far more lucrative and circumspect confines of private equity behemoth Warburg Pincus. That doesn't mean that he is forgotten, and as the FT's Brussels Blog reveals, having "gotten its hands on...
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