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Articles by Conway Waddington
Decisive action, or Fuel on the Fire?
Boko Haram’s mass abduction of nearly 300 schoolgirls from Chibok, a small town in north-eastern Nigeria, has attracted widespread condemnation, and a significant increase in the amount of international media coverage of the group and its insurgency against the Nigerian government. The kidnappings - and subsequent announcement by Boko Haram of plans to sell or marry off the girls - has spurred outrage and the mobilisation of a significant online response in the #BringBackOurGirls campaign.
Exploring EUROSATORY
by Richard Stupart | Published 16 June 2014 After a long day of exploring the exhibition floor at EUROSATORY 2014, RICHARD STUPART and CONWAY WADDINGTON reflect on making water from air, ballistic underpants, and other interesting finds in the vendors’ stands. Listen below, or subscribe to our iTunes Podcast to get the ADR Roundup delivered to your device. Inside the South African Defence Review What we do now Advisory → Independent research and advice on defence and security in Africa.
Open-source investigation
Advisory › Open-source investigation Imagery, geolocation and verification, with the method set out so you can check the finding yourself. Questions this answers Is this image or video what it claims to be, and when was it taken? Where exactly did this happen? Whose equipment, uniforms or markings are these? Do competing accounts of an incident hold up against the imagery? What can be established from the public record before anyone is deployed?
Making chaos profitable in the DRC
There lies a very simple answer to why some of Africa’s bloodiest, most brutal wars never seem to end. They are not really wars in the conventional view. The combatants are often not motivated by a clear ideology and they don’t have clear goals. They are not interested in conquering and taking over capital cities or major cities – in fact, they prefer the deep bush, where it is far easier to carry out activities which are less military than criminal in nature.
Boko Haram and Bad Reporting - Part II
CONWAY WADDINGTON continues his discussion of the poor reporting of Boko Haram, and the negative consequences this has had on attempts to understand the group’s sources of funding. Part I is available here. So what then of the other anti-aircraft weapons the group has been described as possessing? Well, these refer to anti-aircraft guns, and in particular, the large-calibre machine guns that are pintle-mounted on the backs of vehicles.
Understanding the Force Intervention Brigade
MONUSCO’s announcement yesterday that the mission intends to use its newly-established Force Intervention Brigade to create a ‘Security Zone’ around Goma will set the stage for the brigade’s first operational deployment. While still coming up to full strength over at least the next month, creating the security zone will likely be the first opportunity for the brigade to make use of their expanded mandate to engage and disarm armed groups in the Eastern DRC.
Why Kenya Must Stay in Somalia
It was a spate of kidnappings and terror attacks that sparked the Kenyan invasion of Somalia in 2011, and it precisely the same reason why Kenya should not for a second consider withdrawal from AMISOM now. Dubbed Operation ‘Protect the country’, Linda Nchi saw the Kenyan Defence Force make material gains against an unchecked al Shabaab terrorist presences in Southern Somalia.
Viral Insecurity
The current Ebola epidemic in West Africa is the largest in the recorded history of the virus, with the potential to kill thousands and affect millions before it eventually burns itself out. Before it ends, however, it must be contained. Containment requires significant effort and resources, particularly in the face of the weak governance and porous borders that characterise the worst-affected states.
A Violent Kind of Ceasefire
Despite a recently signed, and barely honoured ceasefire, the positions of Riek Machar and Salva Kiir remain apparently irreconcilable, while evidence of organised massacres and looting continue to emerge from Juba, Bor and elsewhere. Richard Stupart discusses the state of the South Sudanese conflict with journalist Adriane Ohanesian in the first of a two-part podcast on the region. Part two can be found here.
Eurosatory 2014: Demonstration Day
EUROSATORY 2014, billed as the largest international air-land defence and security exhibition, is open this week in Paris. ADR attended the pre-opening outdoor demonstration.
Boko Haram: Nigeria's Transnational Insurgency?
Though under-reported internationally, Nigeria’s conflict with Boko Haram has by no means gone away. African Defence Review sat down with Conway Waddington, a specialist conflict analyst at Consultancy Africa Intelligence, to learn more about current state of the insurgency, and the group’s shifting tactics. Can you describe the operational environments that COIN/counter-terrorist forces are faced with Nigeria?
Rebel Campaign Disrupts Election Efforts in South Kordofan
Over the past month, SPLA-N rebels have attacked nearly a dozen garrison towns across South Kordofan state. Their goal is to disrupt the elections and show the government the scope of their military reach. The attacks have been highly coordinated, often hitting multiple garrison towns on the same day. In the most recent attack a truck of ballots was seized on the road to Kadugli, the state capital.
Commentary on ongoing fighting in Mali
With the war against Tuareg militants in Mali having fallen off the popular news radar, African Defence Review sat down with Conway Waddington, a specialist conflict analyst at Consultancy Africa Intelligence, to learn more about current state of operations in the country. Can you describe the operational environments that COIN/counter-terrorist forces are faced with in Mali?
A Violent Kind of Ceasefire, Part 2
In this second part of a two-podcast series, ADR editor Richard Stupart interviews journalist Adriane Ohanesian about emerging evidence of widespread massacres of Nuer civilians in Juba after the split between Riek Machar and Salva Kiir in December. The systematic, organised nature of the massacres carried out by SPLA troops in Juba calls into question the possibility of a long term accord between the warring factions, and poses difficult questions of how to hold government forces to account.
Has Nigeria acquired Super Hinds?
IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly claimed in a report on Wednesday that Nigeria had reportedly taken delivery of two Mi-24 ‘Super Hind’ helicopters from Ukraine. This now appears to be incorrect. The Super Hind is a comprehensive upgrade package for older Mi-24s, created by Advanced Technologies and Engineering (ATE) of South Africa. The company is now part of the Paramount Group as their Advanced Technologies division.
Sudan Breaches Ceasefire in Nuba Mountains
President Omar Al Bashir announced a four-month ceasefire on June 18 that was confirmed by the Sudan Armed Forces spokesman Ahmed Khalifa Al-Shami. But on July 11, SAF-aligned militias attacked a farming area in Lima, South Kordofan state and killed one woman, Fatima Ibrahim. Three days later, the same SAF-aligned militia along with SAF soldiers attacked the Lima area again but were repelled by SPLA-N forces, according to local sources in the area.
Southern Somalia: Still a way to go
Despite having fallen out of the news in recent months, the war in southern Somalia continues. RICHARD STUPART talks to journalist ADRIANE OHANESIAN about the current situation in lower Shabelle, AMISOM’s upcoming offensive to try and retake Baraawe, and the future prospects for the conflict. Listen below, or subscribe to our iTunes Podcast to get the ADR Roundup delivered to your device.
Structuring the African Military Beyond COIN
African conflicts should not be viewed in the same lens as Iraq and Afghanistan. A perfectly sensible statement, yet one that is ignored in a flood of attention paid towards the need for counter-insurgency (COIN) planning and development within African militaries. This is a poor approach to understanding the African military landscape and crises, present and future.
Multinational task forces don't shoot silver bullets
A statement released on Monday by the UN Security Council called for the formation and deployment of a multinational task force into Nigeria to tackle Boko Haram. This is the result of a year of meetings and, it is presumed, would call on several Western and Central African nations to take lead roles in the fight against Africa’s most pressing terrorist problem.
Whither the South Sudanese Rebellion?
Since the split in South Sudan’s government in December last year, Riek Machar has been hard to reach. In his absence he’s been accused of variously trying to mount an unsuccessful coup, and foment an ethnic war. ADRIANE OHANESIAN traveled to speak to Machar directly, and talks to Richard Stupart about Machar’s views on the events of December 2013, the future of Kiir’s government, and likely strategy in the months ahead.
Churches, Conflict and the Kenyan Coast
Kenya has traditionally been a diverse nation where people live relatively peacefully within mixed religious communities. Ethnically driven competition may have existed, but violence, such as occurred after the countries last two elections, has been historically restricted to political or economic objectives.
Direct from Juba
As the dust begins to settle in Juba after two days of fighting in what may have been a coup attempt by forces loyal to ousted vice president Riek Machar, details of what exactly happened are beginning to emerge. African Defence Review spoke to Dr Lual Deng, member of parliament for Jonglei state, about what occurred, why it happened, the potential for a broader ethnic conflict, and the ongoing security situation.
An Election Deferred
ADR’s John Stupart and Conway Waddington sit down for a brief discussion of the delay of Nigeria’s troubling elections. The implications and current media coverage are the two chief points of discussion.
Boko Haram and ISIS: the same coin?
On June 30 2014, the first day of Ramadan, ISIS declared that it was re-establishing the “Caliphate,” long an aspiration of other jihadist groups. In many ways, what the group is doing to Syria and Iraq resembles Boko Haram in Nigeria. But is it so? Despite the fact that Boko Haram voiced informal support for ISIS, in leadership terms Baghdadi comes directly from the al-Zarqawi entourage which unlike Shekau means that his relationship with al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda affiliates is rather strained.
Africa Offshore: Maritime Security Update
Moving offshore briefly, African Defence Review attended the Maritime and Coastal Security Africa conference and chatted to Rear Admiral Ben Bekkering from the Dutch Director of Industry and Trade Support for the Ministry of Defence about the future of maritime strategy, operations in the Horn of Africa, and the challenges ahead. Listen to the podcast below, or subscribe to our iTunes Podcast to get the ADR Roundup delivered to your device.
Eurosatory Day 1: Vehicle-mounted UAVs and More
A contract to build 480 special purpose vehicles for use in riot control situations in Africa has just been announced by STREIT Group. This is the largest single order in […]
Minewolf at EUROSATORY 2014
More on this The A-Darter IR-guided short-range air-to-air missile (SRAAM), developed jointly by South Africa and Brazil & co-funded by their respective air forces, has turned out […] Denel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar: What we know In recent weeks there has been much public debate regarding the news that Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) is in talks with the South African government to take […] A new look at imagery gathered by ADR has revealed some useful information on the ZDF’s fatal...
Understanding Operation Barkhane
Operation Barkhane is recognition that West African security requires regional thinking. It is as much a reorganisation of forces and command structures, as it is the formalisation of this regional approach. That formalisation is notable. It signals France’s commitment to the region, as opposed to specific countries. Moreover, is serves as a template or anchor-point for other regional cooperation initiatives.
Bad Reporting and Boko Haram
Boko Haram has achieved substantial notoriety, particularly as it has engaged in a ferocious campaign of raids on villages in north-eastern Nigeria in recent months. Difficult reporting conditions and the shadowy nature of the group itself have led to much analysis based on speculation, much of which has offered little more than a wide range of ill-informed interpretations of the group’s capabilities, structure, and strategy.
Piracy's Persistence in the Gulf of Guinea
U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Martine Cuaron For many years most recorded piracy activity occurred along the African east coast, but Guinea Gulf pirates have now surpassed their east coast counterparts both in the number of attacks and the level of violence used. Regional governments have been unsuccessful in addressing the piracy problem and repeatedly failed to implement appropriate counter-piracy measures.
The next terrorist attack: Al Qaeda's maritime history and ambitions
Terrorism is not a new form of political dissent in asymmetric warfare. The tactics used by terrorist organisations have evolved as a continually viable form of violent coercion since the first century AD.(2) The tactics employed have since been continually advanced and adapted to exploit gaps in security. The militant Islamist organisation, al Qaeda, discovered and exploited such a gap in security on 11 September 2001.
Africa's 2015 Conflict Barometer - Podcast
John Stupart, Conway Waddington and Darren Olivier discuss the year’s potential flashpoints and crises. Recent events in Paris have only heightened concerns about the future of fundamentalist violence on the continent in 2015. The ADR team discusses a host of issues, ranging from Boko Haram, ebola and Mali, to the SANDF, the South African Defence Review, and MONUSCO’s ongoing war in the DRC. Listen below, or subscribe to our iTunes Podcast to get the ADR Roundup delivered to your device.
Unravelling the case of foreign mercenaries in Nigeria
Reports of the death of a South African citizen working alongside the Nigerian military in the frontline of the fight against Boko Haram has sparked a storm of speculation. Rumours and reports of foreign personnel providing training, technical support, and possibly even fighting for the Nigerian government, as what can only be described as mercenaries, have been a regular facet of the conflict in recent months.
Regional force plans to combat Boko Haram come together
It appears that attention after the Baga attack may have contributed to jumpstarting renewed regional, multinational efforts to countering Boko Haram. Significant and meaningful progress has been made a both the diplomatic level, and in terms of actual combat troop deployments in and around north-eastern Nigeria. Questions about how sincere that commitment to a regional task force, and how effective such a force might be, remains unanswered.
Why are African militaries not making better use of CubeSats?
This article originally appeared in the June edition of SA Flyer and FlightCom magazine. It is republished here with minor edits. As the cost of space-based sensors continues to plummet, most African militaries remain surprisingly uninterested in using the technology and reaping the benefits that their counterparts in the rest of the world are experiencing.
Somaliland’s Uncertain Rise from the Ashes
Few pieces of real estate have as dark a history as the grounds of Hargeisa’s Edna Adna University Hospital. Over the course of its history, it has served as a colonial military parade ground and the site of some of the worst excesses of the Siad Barre regime that ruled Somalia with an iron fist between 1969 and 1991. A regime whose end sparked the country’s brutal civil war.
A Closer Look at Boko Haram
As the death toll from the massacre in Baga, Nigeria remains disputed, questions remain about how Boko Haram has been so successful in their campaign so far. RICHARD STUPART talks to CONWAY WADDINGTON and JUDITH JACOB about Boko Haram’s structure, operations, and possible future implications. Listen below, or subscribe to our iTunes Podcast to get the ADR Roundup delivered to your device.
The Case of the Nigerian Contractors
It’s been a week of alleged scandal after the death of a former Koevoet soldier in northern Nigeria. Editor John Stupart talks with DARREN OLIVIER and CONWAY WADDINGTON about reports that private military contractors (PMCs) from South Africa might be serving in the country. Listen below, or subscribe to our iTunes Podcast to get the ADR Roundup delivered to your device. The Case of the Nigerian Contractors
SANDF UNAMID troops in rebel ambush
Members of the SANDF’s UNAMID Darfur peacekeeping contingent were involved in an ambush by local rebels. According to a press release by the Department of Defence, one soldier was killed and another wounded during the action. There is as yet little further information on the nature of the ambush, nor of the location and enemy casualties. The SANDF UNAMID contingent was recently involved in a tense standoff with Darfur rebels, and have been attacked previously on other routine patrols.
Is peace coming to South Sudan?
A peace deal has been signed in South Sudan, but will it last and what comes next? Features editor RICHARD STUPART talks to journalist ANDREW GREEN about the likelihood that the deal will hold. Listen below, or subscribe to our iTunes Podcast to get the ADR Roundup delivered to your device.
Snapshot analysis: Boko Haram’s latest (June 2015) video
Snapshot analysis: Boko Haram’s latest (June 2015) video On 23 June, the Islamist militant group Boko Haram released a new video showing some of their recent activities. They did so under their newly adopted name: Wilayat Gharb Afriqiya (Islamic State of West Africa province).
Conflict Looms as Sudanese Troops Assemble
This article first appeared on Nuba Reports, and is republished here with their kind permission. Conflict looms in the two conflict areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states as the Sudanese government amasses troops along the borders of rebel-controlled areas. Local sources suspect the conflict will commence within two weeks once government forces, made up of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and other militias, reposition themselves.
South Kordofan at a Standstill
According to sources across the state, the SAF and the paramilitary RSF have been massing around Tolodi, Ganazyia and government stronghold Kadugli – South Kordofan’s capital. Meanwhile the government has been promising victory. The Minister of Defense, Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein, came to Kadugli last week to rally the SAF and RSF units. “We are going to clean out the rebels from South Kordofan, and it will happen before the rainy season,” he said.
The Many Lives and Deaths of Abubakar Shekau
[UPDATE: This has become something of a evergreen post, keeping track of various claims of the death or wounding, and subsequent reappearance of Boko Haram’s nominal leader, Abubakar Shekau - it will continue to be updated as necessary.] The latest claim doing the rounds that the Nigerian military has killed key Boko Haram figure Abubakar Shekau has been met with a fair degree of scepticism, and understandably so.
Making sense of a bizarre firefight in Somalia
Making sense of a bizarre firefight in Somalia In the middle of 2015, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, best known as al-Shabaab, was about to unleash several noteworthy and significant attacks on AMISOM forces across Somalia. Three such attacks between June 2015 and January 2016 involved large-scale assaults that overran AMISOM bases at Leego, Janaale, and El Adde.
Media & information
Advisory › Media & information How African conflict and defence policy get reported, how that coverage is shaped, and how to work with the press. Questions this answers How is this conflict or policy being covered, by whom, and with what gaps? What is this propaganda or messaging campaign trying to achieve? How should our organisation communicate in a contested information space? What are the ethics and risks of reporting from this environment?
Finding Af Urur - Al-Shabaab's latest target in Puntland
On the morning of 8 June, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a military base at Af Urur in Bari Region in the semi-autonomous Puntland State. Local officials claimed that the militants killed around 38 people, mostly soldiers. Al-Shabaab claimed that it overran the base and town, killing over 60 people, and seizing or destroying arms and vehicles belonging to Puntland security forces.
Brief imagery analysis: ‘Ambazonia Defence Forces’ propaganda picture
In May, an image was posted on social media, in which members of the ‘Ambazonia Defence Forces’, a secessionist militant group conducting an insurgency in the Anglophone region of Cameroon, purportedly displayed newly acquired firearms.
Probable assassination attempt against President Mnangagwa in Bulawayo
While President Emmerson Mnangagwa was leaving the stage at a rally at White City Stadium in Bulawayo, an explosion occurred among his retinue – seemingly very close to the President. Although Mnangagwa was unharmed, it appears that at least one person, and probably several more, were wounded. Video of the incident suggests the explosion occurred very close to several people, making it somewhat odd that so few people were harmed.
Af Urur followup - some interesting details
In the course of researching the al-Shabaab attack on Puntland Security Forces at Af Urur on 8 June 2017, a couple of interesting little details emerged. These were not specific to the task of geolocating the town and base, which was covered in this post, but were nonetheless worth pursuing in a bit more detail in this followup post.
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