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Articles by Craig Erlam
Gold Price Outlook: Can Gold Prices Surpass $2400/oz? - MarketPulse
Gold prices supported by rate cut expectations and central bank buying. Gold ETFs see positive flows, suggesting bullish momentum. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and may cause short-term volatility but no direction. MOST READ: Oil Price Update – Oil Prices Fall as Gaza Talks and Hurricane Beryl Take Center Stage Gold prices found support at $2350 per ounce yesterday after a selloff erased Friday’s gains.
Euro shrugs as investor confidence tumbles - MarketPulse
The euro is showing little movement on Tuesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0819, up 0.05% on the day. The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index resumed its losing ways on Monday. The index slid to -7.3 in July, after a 0.3 gain in June. Prior to the June reading, the index had declined continuously since March 2022. There have been signs that the eurozone economy is finding its feet but investors aren’t showing any optimism over the eurozone’s economic outlook.
NZD edges lower ahead of RBNZ decision - MarketPulse
The New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6115, down 0.16% in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar looked sharp last week against the slumping US dollar, climbing 0.88%. Reserve Bank expected to hold rates again The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold its cash rate at 5.50% for an eighth straight time when its meets early on Wednesday.
Australian dollar drifting after mixed confidence data - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar continues to show little movement this week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638 in the European session, up 0.02% on the day. Australia released mixed confidence indicators earlier today while there are no US economic releases. Federal Reserve Chair Powell testifies before the US Senate banking committee later today. Australian confidence indicators presented a mixed picture of the mood in the private sector.
Gold Technical: A further drift down in the 10-year UST real yield supports a bullish narrative in Gold - MarketPulse
Recent rebound in WTI crude has remained below US$90/barrel which in turn led to a softening of inflationary expectations via the breakeven rates. A further downward drift in the 10-year US breakeven rate may a further drop in the 10-year US Treasury real yield. Lower opportunity costs in hold Gold (XAU/USD) support the potential start of another medium-term bullish impulsive upmove sequence above US$2,285 key support.
Market Insights Podcast - Impact of a hung French parliament, US and China inflation data looms ahead - MarketPulse
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, we kickstarted with a discussion on the recent two key developed nations’ political; the UK snap general election and second round of the France legislation elections.
Aussie dollar calm ahead of confidence reports - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6637 in the North American session, down 0.15% on the day. There are no US events and only one US release on the calendar, which should translate into a quiet day for the Australian dollar. Australia releases consumer and business confidence data early on Tuesday and the markets are braced for soft numbers.
EUR/USD gains ground despite French election shocker - MarketPulse
The euro has started the week with gains and is trading at 1.0836 in the European session, up 0.33% on the day. EUR/USD is coming off its best week of the year, gaining 1.19%. France veers to the left in Round 2 France has been on a political roller over the past two weeks and the wild ride isn’t over yet. President Macron called a snap election in June after European parliamentary elections saw the far-right make strong gains.
Oil Price Update - Oil Prices Fall as Gaza Talks and Hurricane Beryl Take Center Stage - MarketPulse
Geopolitical events and weather disruptions are currently the main drivers of oil price fluctuations. OPEC+ production cuts have contributed to tighter oil markets, supporting prices. Can it continue? Technical analysis suggests key support and resistance levels to watch for future price movements. MOST READ: The Week Ahead – Will US Inflation Data Derail Market Optimism? Oil prices have retreated sharply since printing a fresh high on Friday.
USD/JPY: Soft US data offers a potential relief rally for JPY - MarketPulse
Lacklustre US non-farm payrolls & ISM Services PMI for June has led to a further drop in US Treasury yields. Both the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries/JGBs yield premiums have shrunk to a 5-month low. A lower positive carry using JPY as a funded currency and elevated net short positioning in JPY futures may put a temporary halt to JPY’s persistent weakness. Watch the 162.40 intermediate resistance on the USD/JPY.
GBP/USD Price Outlook: Cable Holds the High Ground, Multi-Month Resistance Up Ahead - MarketPulse
GBP/USD is facing a key multi-month resistance level at 1.2850 after a positive run. The outcome of US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony could significantly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate. A break above 1.2850 might require a catalyst, like a substantial drop in US inflation, while support levels are identified at 1.2750 and below. Most Read: The Week Ahead – Will US Inflation Data Derail Market Optimism?
The Week Ahead - Will US Inflation Data Derail Market Optimism? - MarketPulse
Soft US economic data, including lower-than-expected job growth, has increased market expectations for a September rate cut. The week ahead features important data releases, including US inflation figures and Chinese inflation data. US Inflation holds the key to a September rate cut. A decline in inflation could see significant changes to rate cut probabilities.
USD/CAD steady as job growth falls in Canada, US - MarketPulse
The Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3618, up 0.05% on the day. Canada’s employment shrinks, US nonfarm payrolls beat forecast Canada and the US released employment data today and surprisingly, the Canadian dollar has showed almost no reaction. Canada’s labor market contracted in June, with a decrease of 1.4 thousand. This follows a gain of 26.7 thousand in May and was well below the market estimate of a 22.5 thousand gain.
UK election: Labour wins in a landslide - MarketPulse
The UK national election on Thursday propelled the Labour Party to a sweeping victory and Labour leader Keir Starmer will become the next Prime Minister. In the six-week election campaign of the election, Labour had a massive lead in the polls and there was no doubt it would win a huge majority in parliament. The latest update indicates that Labour has won 412 seats and the Conservatives had plunged to 121 seats. This gives Labour a massive 160-seat majority in the House of Commons.
Historic French vote could propel Le Pen to power - MarketPulse
French election: Will the far-right win a majority? French voters will head to the polls on Sunday, July 7 for round two of the parliamentary elections. In the first round, Mary Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party (RN) made big gains and won 33% of the vote. President Macron’s Ensemble alliance was relegated to third place, as voters delivered the President a stinging rebuke after he called the snap election.
EUR/USD Advances, DXY Eyes Trendline Break - Jobs Data Up Next - MarketPulse
EUR/USD rises above 1.0800 due to weak US economic data and a weaker USD. Market anticipates a 71.6% chance of a rate cut in September. DXY is at a psychological support level ahead of US jobs data release. Most Read: UK Election 2024: Impact Analysis on GBP and FTSE 100 EUR/USD continued its upward momentum on US Independence Day, capitalizing on a weaker USD and low market liquidity to rise above the 1.0800 level.
Euro extends gains with eye on French election - MarketPulse
The euro has posted gains on Thursday and is trading at 1.0812 in the European session, up 0.26% on the day. It has been a good week for EUR/USD, which has gained 0.95% and hit a three-week high on Wednesday. Will Le Pen snag a majority? France heads for the polls on Sunday for the second round of parliamentary elections.
Brent Crude - Oil runs into resistance as EIA inventories fall - MarketPulse
Brent Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday due to a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories. The market anticipates further inventory reduction, leading to potential support for prices in Q4. Technical analysis suggests bullish continuation, with a key resistance level at 87.90 and potential for a move towards 90.00 if this level is breached.
US DJIA: UST yield curve un-inversion may help the laggard to catch up - MarketPulse
Yesterday’s lacklustre US ISM services PMI and ADP employment data for June increases the odds of a further US Treasury yield curve un-inversion. A further un-inversion above -0.08% on the US Treasury yield spread between 10-year & 2-year may trigger a bull steepening scenario. A potential bull steepening in the US Treasury yield curve may see an outperformance of the value factor, in turn, trigger a bullish breakout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
USD/CHF back at key confluence area- Fed Minutes and Swiss unemployment up next - MarketPulse
USD/CHF is currently at a key confluence zone near 0.9000, facing obstacles for further decline. The rate differential between SNB and FED will likely have an impact on USD/CHF moving forward. Price action and technicals suggest a potential bullish reaction, with a push towards 0.9100 possible. Most Read: UK Election 2024: Impact Analysis on GBP and FTSE 100 USD/CHF has returned to a significant confluence zone near the 0.9000 level.
USD/JPY edges higher, FOMC minutes next - MarketPulse
The Japanese yen continues to lose ground. On Tuesday, the USD/JPY is trading at 161.66 in the North American session, up 0.16% on the day. On the data calendar, there are no Japanese events today. The US released the ADP employment report earlier and the ISM Services PMI and FOMC minutes will be published later today. Can Tokyo do anything about the ailing yen? Japanese officials must be scratching their heads about the Japanese yen, which can’t find its footing.
UK Election 2024: Impact Analysis on GBP and FTSE 100 - MarketPulse
The UK election has had a surprisingly muted impact on the market, likely due to the focus on monetary policy. Polling suggests a comfortable Labour victory, but any surprises could trigger volatility in the GBP and FTSE 100. The direction of monetary policy, particularly potential BoE rate cuts, will likely be a more significant driver of GBP and FTSE 100 performance than the election outcome.
AUD/USD shrugs as Australian retail sales jump - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the European session, up 0.11% on the day. Australian retail sales climb 0.6% Australian consumers have been counting their pennies and reducing discretionary spending. Consumers are feeling the double squeeze of high borrowing costs and stubborn inflation, but retail sales pulled a surprise today with a gain of 0.6% m/m in May. This follows a meager gain of 0.1% in April and crushed the market estimate of 0.2%.
USD/CAD stalls after Canadian PMI data and Fed Chair Powell's remarks. Where to next? - MarketPulse
USD/CAD is rangebound, frustrating traders, thanks to a host of factors from rate differentials to rising oil prices. Canadian PMI data has been softer than expected, with decreased output, new orders, and employment. Stronger oil prices have kept the Canadian dollar supported of late.
GBP/USD calm, markets keep eye on Powell speech - MarketPulse
The British pound is showing limited movement on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2681 early in the North American session, up 0.25% on the day. There are no UK events today, while the US releases Jolts Job Openings and Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal. UK PMIs points to weak economy The Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) provide a snapshot of the health of key industries and the UK picture is not a pretty one.
S&P 500 Summer Trends: How historical seasonality could support the S&P 500 - MarketPulse
Historically, the S&P 500 has shown positive seasonality in July, with an average gain of 2.3% over the past 20 years. Election years typically see a summer rally, followed by a dip before the election, and a post-election rally. Even with strong first-half performance, the S&P 500 has rarely seen negative returns in the second half. Will the rally continue? While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, historical trends can be valuable for investors.
EUR/USD eases as inflation ticks lower - MarketPulse
The euro is slightly lower on Tuesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0719 in the European session, down 0.19% on the day at the time of writing. The euro hit a two-week high on Monday, rising to 1.0776, but couldn’t consolidate and ended the day almost unchanged. Eurozone CPI eases to 2.5% The annual inflation rate in the eurozone dropped to 2.5% in June, compared to 2.6% a month earlier and in line with market expectations. The slight decline was driven a slower pace of price rises for food and energy.
EUR/USD: Euro bulls should not be complacent after French election - MarketPulse
Sovereign credit risk remains elevated in France despite yesterday’s rallies seen in the EUR/USD, CAC 40 & DAX ex-post first round of the French legislative election. Speculative net capital outflows & bearish sentiment in CAC 40 & DAX may trigger a negative feedback loop into the EUR/USD.
Australian dollar eyes retail sales - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar has posted slight losses on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6649 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. Australian retail sales expected to improve Australian consumers have been in frugal mood and have reduced their discretionary spending. Consumers have been squeezed by high borrowing costs and the high cost of living. Retail sales ticked upwards by only 0.1% m/m in April.
Market Insights Podcast - France and UK elections, US ISM Services PMI, NFP are key highlights for this week - MarketPulse
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. We kicked off the week with the post market reactions to the outcome of the pivotal first round of the France legislative elections that saw Le Pen’s far right National Rally party took the lead while French President Macron’s centrist alliance dropped to third place, below a far left coalition, New Popular Front party.
Brent Crude - Oil eyes range breakout as $90 a barrel in focus - MarketPulse
Brent Crude oil prices are rising despite a slight drop in demand from Asia in the first half of 2024. Inventories data will be important as US summer holidays get into full swing. Range breakout on the cards… is the $90 a barrel mark out of the question? Most Read: Gold Price Update: XAU/USD rises as search for catalyst rumbles on Brent Crude continued its rise today as it eyes a range breakout.
USD/JPY rises up after GDP downgrade - MarketPulse
The Japanese yen has dropped below the 161 line on Monday. The yen is trading at 161.39 early in the North American session, down 0.35% on the day. Japan’s GDP revised sharply lower Japan revised its first-quarter GDP report to -2.9%, y/y, sharply lower than the initial reading of -1.8%. On a quarterly basis, GDP was revised lower to -4.0%, compared to -3.7% in the fourth quarter. The downward revision was due to corrections in construction orders.
Gold Price Update: XAU/USD rises as search for catalyst rumbles on - MarketPulse
Gold rises as a weaker US Dollar and uncertainty around monetary policy continues. ISM data later today before all attention turns to US jobs data later in the week. Trendline break and price action hint at at a potential rise toward the $2370 resistance handle. Market participants are closely watching for a new catalyst to drive gold prices in a definitive direction.
Markets Weekly Outlook: French, UK Elections in Focus Followed by NFP Data - MarketPulse
Despite a decline in core PCE numbers, hawkish comments from Fed policymakers cast doubt on a September rate cut. The first half of 2024 saw a widening gap between growth and value stocks, with the former outperforming the S&P 500. Concerns over central bank policy divergence and a weakening Yen add to market uncertainty. The week ahead brings key data releases, including US non-farm payroll and unemployment figures. Chart of the week: S&P 500 RSI divergence hints at further downside.
Euro flat ahead of crucial French election - MarketPulse
The euro is almost at a standstill on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0705, up 0.02% on the day. The euro has hovered close to the 1.07 line for most of the week as it looks for direction. Will Macron’s gamble backfire? All eyes are on France – not for the Olympic Games, but rather the first round of parliamentary elections which will be held on Sunday. President Macron called the snap election after the extreme right made sharp gains in the recent European Parliamentary elections.
Canadian dollar eyes Can. GDP, US Core PCE - MarketPulse
The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3704 in the European session. Canada’s GDP expected to rise 0.3% Canada’s economy has been in low gear, with a flat GDP reading in March. The markets are expecting better news from April GDP, which is expected to rise 0.3% m/m. The Canadian economy is expected to grow by only 0.9% in 2024, compared to estimated growth of 2.3% in the US.
USD/JPY flat, Tokyo Core CPI higher than expected - MarketPulse
Japanese yen pushes above 161 The Japanese yen is unchanged on Friday, but has managed to set a new low against the US dollar. The yen is trading at 160.72 in the European session and fell as low as 161.28 earlier, its lowest level since 1986. Tokyo Core CPI accelerates to 2.1% Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan, climbed to 2.1% y/y in June, up from 1.9% in May and above the market estimate of 2%.
Euro eyes French inflation - MarketPulse
The euro has gained ground on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707, up 0.26% on the day. The euro has stayed close to the 1.07 line for much of the week as it looks for direction. French inflation expected to accelerate The eurozone releases the June inflation report next week. The French inflation release, which will be released on Friday, could be a precursor for the eurozone release. French inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% in April.
Gold Price Update: surges to $2330 after yesterday's selloff – What’s next? - MarketPulse
Acceptance below $2300/oz remains elusive as bulls return in force. PCE inflation data culd shake up the markets and provide a stable medium-term outlook for gold prices. Trendline break hints at potential upside toward $2365-2370/oz area. Must Read: US Dollar on Edge: how PCE data could shake up the markets Gold (XAU/USD) prices surged on Thursday following a sharp selloff and a brief dip below the $2300 psychological barrier.
USD/JPY steady as BOJ watches with sense of urgency - MarketPulse
Japanese yen remains below 160 USD/JPY is trading at 160.38 early in the North American session, down 0.25% on the day. The Japanese yen has been trading below 160 on Thursday, after dropping as low as 160.87 on Wednesday, its lowest level since December 1986. As the yen continues to hit new lows, there are concerns of another intervention from the Bank of Japan in order to stem the currency’s rapid depreciation.
US Dollar on Edge: how PCE data could shake up the markets - MarketPulse
What is the US PCE data and why is it important? Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve and US Dollar remains high due to conflicting US data and global inflation concerns. The upcoming PCE data release is highly anticipated as it may influence the Fed’s stance on rate cuts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rangebound ahead of the PCE release. Will 107 finally be revisited? Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Stabilizes: Is this the bottom markets have been waiting for?
Aussie calm as inflation expectations jump - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar has posted small gains on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6654 in the European session, up 0.10% on the day. Australian inflation expectations rises to 4.4% This week’s inflation indicators have risen more than expected, an indication that inflation remains sticky and that the road to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target band of 2% to 3% will be bumpy.
Nikkei 225: Bullish breakout with improved market breadth - MarketPulse
Nikkei 225 broke above a 4-week range configuration Market breadth on the TOPIX has improved steadily as more of its component stocks have traded above their respective 200-day moving averages in the past three weeks. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for Japan has inched higher since the end of May which suggests an improvement in Japanese macro data.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Stabilizes: Is this the bottom markets have been waiting for? - MarketPulse
Bitcoin, Ethereum & Cryptocurrency Key Points: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows show a net inflow of $31 million following 7 days of outflows. BTC/USD rises around 7% from weekly low yet remains on course for a lackluster month of June. Mt. Gox may repay up to $8.5 billion worth of crypto starting next month. SEC Chair Gary Gensler hints at Ethereum (ETH) ETF approval soon.
USD/JPY breaks 160, will Tokyo intervene? - MarketPulse
Japanese yen slumps to 37-year low USD/JPY is trading at 160.68 in the North American session, up 0.62% on the day. The Japanese yen broke below the psychological barrier of 160 today and has fallen to its lowest level since December 1986. The Japanese currency had been hovering just below 160 throughout the week and has finally broken through. The yen’s downward move has raised concerns that the Bank of Japan will intervene in the currency markets yet again.
Australian dollar slightly higher as CPI rises to 4% - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar rose 0.40% after the Australian CPI release but has given much of those gains. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6663 in the European session, up 0.24% on the day. Australian inflation surprises on the upside Australia’s CPI accelerated to 4.0% in May, up from 3.6% in April and above the market estimate of 3.8%. This marked the highest level since November 2023. The price increases were felt throughout the economy, including electricity, automotive fuel, food and transport.
Gold prices under pressure as the Dollar Index (DXY), US Yields Rise - MarketPulse
Gold continues its decline with $2300/oz firmly back in sight. US Dollar index and US 10Y yield continue to rise, US 10Y now at 4.275%. PCE inflation data could be the catalyst needed for gold prices to find some direction. Fundamental Overview Gold prices remain under pressure this morning as rising US yields and a stronger US Dollar weigh on the precious metal.
AUD/JPY: Aussie outperformance with a hotter AU CPI - MarketPulse
Australia’s monthly CPI has increased to 4% from 3.7% in April, a sign of a sticky and elevated consumer inflationary trend. The odds of an RBA interest rate in the near-term horizon have reduced which increased the yield premium of 2-year Australian government bond over JGB. AUD/JPY is likely on a path of bullish acceleration within its medium-term & major uptrend phases.
Australian dollar edges lower, CPI next - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638 in the North American session, down 0.27% on the day. Australian consumer sentiment climbs Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index flexed some muscle earlier on Tuesday but that didn’t help the Australian dollar. The index jumped 1.7% in June, a strong turnaround after three straight declines.
Dow Retreats from One-Month Highs, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Edge Higher - MarketPulse
Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA) benefits as market participants diversify their holdings. Nvidia leads a recovery for the chip sector following 3.02% of losses yesterday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 face a major test of a key resistance level if the recovery is to continue. Fundamental Overview U.S. indices have experienced an intriguing start to the week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 facing selling pressure.
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