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Articles by Craig James
CommSec Daily Download Monday 10 January 2022
Homepage Breaking news CommSec Daily Download Monday 10 January 2022 S&P/ASX 200 SPI futures are flat despite a continued sell-off in the technology sector in US markets.
CommSec Daily Download Thursday 6 January 2022
Homepage Breaking news CommSec Daily Download Thursday 6 January 2022 S&P/ASX 200 SPI futures are pointing down, following a sharp sell-off in US markets. Today’s Announcements: Insurance Australia Group (IAG) finalises reinsurance program | Nickel Mines (NIC) is granted tax relief from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance | SPI futures indicate a negative start after the Nasdaq sees its biggest one day loss since February.
2021: Edition 26 - American Resilience
Last Night's Markets Mystery Bond Rally Delta Straining The RBA’s New Regime Meanwhile at the Fed… Hysterical America Triangle Energy Quote of the Week Research and Diversions Ask Alan Next Week Last Night's Markets As at 5:40am AEST: Name Price % Change Dow Jones Industrial Average 34,882.17 1.34% S&P 500 4,368.95 1.11% Nasdaq Composite 14,693.03 0.92% The Global Dow USD 3,999.01 1.40% Gold 1,811.8 0.64% Crude Oil WTI 74.65 2.34% Australian Dollar / US Dollar 0.749 0.83% Bitcoin / US Dollar...
The week ahead
Australia: Reserve Bank dominates calendar In an Easter holiday-shortened week, the Australian economic calendar will be dominated by information on key industry sectors and Reserve Bank events. The week kicks off on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank Board holding its April meeting. No change in policy settings is expected. But as always the commentary from the Board will be worth scrutinising, especially in terms of the solid job market recovery.
Australia: Mid-Year Review, jobs, population and wealth are the highlights
On Monday The week may kick off on Monday with the Mid-Year budget update (it is expected some time over the week). In the full twelve months to October the underlying cash balance was $174.6 billion (8.8 per cent of GDP). The budget deficit for the four months to October was $3.6 billion lower than the ‘profile’ deficit. Also, on Monday the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) issues overseas arrivals data for October and the “Household Impacts of COVID19 Survey” for November.
Australia: Bevy of insights into the economy
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday with the AiGroup services activity gauge. And ANZ releases the November data on job advertisements. The healing process is well underway in the job market. Also, on Monday the Reserve Bank Governor delivers a speech while the Reserve Bank issues data on credit and debit card lending. The RBA Governor speech will be delivered to the Australian Payments Network.
Australia: Summer sizzler
The highlight of next week is the National Accounts on Wednesday. The economy may have expanded by 2% in the September quarter. On Monday The week kicks off on Monday with the Business Indicators publication from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The quarterly data includes readings on profits, sales, inventories and wages. Also, on Monday the ABS releases estimates of industry multifactor productivity for 2019/20. The Reserve Bank issues private sector credit data.
Australia: Reserve Bank and jobs in focus
In a huge week for Aussie investors, speeches from Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe will feature along with the Board’s November meeting minutes. Key data on jobs, wages and retail spending will also be scrutinised for signs of a post-lockdown recovery. On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) issues its October “Household Impacts of COVID-19” survey.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, non-farm payrolls (jobs) lifted by 638,000 in October (survey: +593,000). The unemployment rate fell from 7.9% in September to 6.9% in October (survey: 7.6%). Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% to stand 4.5% higher than a year ago (survey: 4.6%). Consumer credit increased by US$16.21bn in September (survey: US$7.75bn). US share markets were mixed on Friday.
Australia: Business & consumer sentiment in focus
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when CommSec releases its annual Home Size report. The report examines trends in home building and the implications for home building, home purchase and related industries. Also, on Monday the Reserve Bank releases the September data on credit and debit card lending – key statistics to monitor economy-wide spending. Data showed that the average credit/charge card balance fell by 1.7% to a 14-year low of $2,721.67 in August.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, the 'flash' IHS-Markit manufacturing index rose from 53.2 to 53.3 in October (survey: 53.4). The services index rose from 54.6 to 56.0 in October (survey: 54.6). US share markets closed mixed on Friday in choppy trade as investors continued to monitor developments in talks over a stimulus package. Shares in Intel lost 10% after reporting a drop in margins. And shares in American Express fell 3.6% after third-quarter profit missed estimates.
Australia: Inflation in focus
On Monday But the week kicks off on Monday with the quarterly State of the States report from CommSec. The report details the current economic performance of the states and territories. Also, on Monday the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases preliminary trade in goods data for September. On Tuesday On Tuesday, the weekly measure of consumer confidence is released by ANZ and Roy Morgan. And Commonwealth Bank (CBA) issues its fortnightly report of credit and debit card spending.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, retail sales rose by 1.9% in September (survey: +0.8%). Industrial production fell by 0.6% in September (survey: +0.5%). Business inventories were up 0.3% in August (survey: +0.4%). The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 80.4 to 81.2 points in October (survey: 80.5). US share markets were mixed on Friday. Shares in Pfizer rose 3.3% after it said it could seek authorisation for a vaccine it is working on in November.
Australia: Reserve Bank Board minutes and more in focus
On Tuesday The week kicks off on Tuesday with weekly readings on consumer sentiment from ANZ-Roy Morgan and payroll jobs and wages from the Bureau of Statistics (ABS). And the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) issues the September Household Spending Intentions (HSI) report. Also, on Tuesday, Reserve Bank Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Chris Kent speaks at the IFR Australia roundtable webinar at 10am AEDT.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, wholesale inventories rose by 0.4% in August (survey: +0.5%). US share markets rose on Friday on continued hopes for a new fiscal stimulus package. Advanced Micro Devices said it was in talks to buy chipmaker Xilinx in a deal valued at more than $30 billion. The Dow Jones index ended higher by 161 points or 0.6%. The S&P500 index lifted 0.9% and the Nasdaq index gained 159 points or 1.4%. Over the week the Dow rose 3.3%; S&P 500 rose 3.8%; and Nasdaq rose 4.6%.
Australia: Reserve Bank Governor speech and jobs report hog the spotlight
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases one of its relatively new indicators: “Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey”. The survey highlights how Aussie families are being affected by the virus. On Tuesday On Tuesday, the weekly reading of consumer sentiment from ANZ-Roy Morgan is released with the CBA measure of card spending and latest data on overseas arrivals and departures from the ABS.
Australia: Budget time again
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when IHS Markit release the ‘final’ reading of the Australian services gauge for September. In the preliminary reading, services sector activity was unchanged at a two-month high of 50. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge is also issued for September. On Tuesday On ‘Super Tuesday’, the weekly reading of consumer sentiment from ANZ-Roy Morgan is released with ANZ job advertisements, international trade and new vehicle sales data.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, durable goods orders rose by 0.4% in August (survey: 1.5%) after jumping 11.7% in July. US share markets rose on Friday on signs that US lawmakers were making progress on a reported US$2.4 trillion stimulus package that could be voted on next week. Shares of Apple (+3.8%) and Amazon (+2.5%) both lifted. Boeing shares surged 6.8% on reports the US aviation regulator plans to test-fly the grounded 737 Max plane.
Australia: Home prices in focus
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases experimental estimates of the recent national accounts, covering schools and universities. On Tuesday On Tuesday, weekly data on credit and debit card spending from the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) will be issued alongside the weekly read of consumer sentiment from ANZ-Roy Morgan. These timely readings are valuable as investors gauge the impact of COVID-19 on the economy.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, the Conference Board leading index rose by 1.2% in August (survey: +1.3%). The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index lifted from 74.1 to 78.9 in September (survey: 75). The current account deficit widened from US$111.5 billion to US$170.5bn in the June quarter (survey: US$157.9bn deficit). US share markets fell on Friday, dragged lower by technology shares.
Australia: Mixed statistical offerings
On Tuesday The week kicks off on Tuesday when Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Guy Debelle gives a speech –“The Australian Economy and Monetary Policy” – at the Australian Industry Group conference at 10.30am AEST. Also, on Tuesday, weekly data on credit and debit card spending from the Commonwealth Bank (CBA), consumer sentiment from ANZ-Roy Morgan and the Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) payroll jobs and wages figures are all released.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, consumer prices rose by 0.4% in August (survey: 0.3%) to be 1.3% higher over the year (survey: 1.2%). Core consumer prices lifted 0.4% (survey: 0.2%) to be up 1.7% on the year (survey: 1.6%). The US budget deficit widened from US$63 billion to US$200 billion in August (survey: -US$245bn). US share markets ended mixed on Friday. Shares in cloud services provider Oracle fell 0.6% despite earnings beating expectations.
Australia: Monthly job statistics in focus
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) issues provisional data on overseas travel during August. Borders are closed except for exceptional circumstances. Also, on Monday, the ABS releases one of its new publications.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, US non-farm payrolls (employment) rose by 1.371m in August (survey: +1.35m). The jobless rate fell from 10.2% to 8.4% in August (survey: 9.8%). Average hourly earnings were up 0.4% in August (survey: flat) to be up 4.7% on a year ago. US share markets fell again on Friday, although finishing well off session lows. Concerns about valuations in the technology sector persisted.
Australia: Jobs, wages & confidence data dominate
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when ANZ reports its job advertisements data for August, the AiGroup releases its services gauge and the Reserve Bank issues data on credit and debit card lending. The number of job ads has lifted off pandemic lows with the resources-focused economies re-opening and benefiting from Chinese demand. But the imposition of level four restrictions in Victoria will weigh on the headline result.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, personal income rose by 0.4% in July (survey: -0.2%). And personal spending rose by 1.9% in July (survey: +1.6%). The PCE core deflator lifted 0.3% to an annual growth rate of 1.3% (survey: 1.2%). The advance goods trade deficit widened from US$70.99 billion to US$79.32bn in July (survey: US$72bn deficit). The final reading for consumer sentiment in August rose from 72.5 to 74.1 (survey: 72.8). The MNI Chicago PMI fell from 51.9 to 51.2 in August (survey: 52.0).
Australia: Historic week in prospect
A quirk of the statistical schedule is that each change of season is ushered in by a barrage of economic data and events. And there will be more than a dozen indicators released over the week. The highlight of the week is the National Accounts on Wednesday. The economy may have contracted a record 6 per cent in the June quarter.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, the IHS-Markit 'flash' manufacturing purchasing managers' index lifted to 53.6 in August from 50.9 in July. The services index rose to 54.8 from 50. The composite index hit the highest level since February 2019. Existing home sales rose by a record 24.7% in July to a 5.86 million annual rate (survey: 5.38 million). US share markets lifted on Friday with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs. Economic data encouraged investors.
Australia: Spotlight on business investment data
On Monday The week starts on Monday when the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the “Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey” for June. The week starts on Monday when the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the “Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey” for June. On Tuesday On Tuesday weekly indicators are issued, including Commonwealth Bank (CBA) data on credit and debit card spending, the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index and the ABS payroll jobs & wages figures.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, retail sales rose 1.2% in July (survey +1.9%). Industrial production rose by 3% in July (survey +3%). Business inventories fell 1.1% in June (survey -1.2%). Consumer confidence rose from 72.5 to 72.8 in August. Unit labour costs rose by 12.2% in the June quarter (survey +6.2%) with productivity up 7.3% (survey +1.5%). US share markets were mixed on Friday. While retail sales in July fell short of forecasts, production met expectations.
Australia: The consumer is in the spotlight
On Monday The week starts on Monday when the ABS releases provisional July overseas travel statistics. On Tuesday On Tuesday, the usual weekly indicators are issued. The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) releases its weekly data on credit and debit card spending and ANZ-Roy Morgan issues weekly consumer sentiment data. And the CBA Household Spending Intentions (HSI) survey for July is released.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, non-farm payrolls (employment) rose by 1.763 million in July (survey: +1.6m). The unemployment rate fell from 11.1% to 10.2% (forecast 10.5%). Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% (survey -0.5%). Consumer credit rose by US$8.95 billion in June (survey +US$10bn). US share markets were mixed on Friday with blue-chip shares higher but technology lower.
Australia: Jobs, wages & confidence data dominate
On Tuesday The week starts on Tuesday when Commonwealth Bank (CBA) releases its weekly data on credit and debit card spending and ANZ-Roy Morgan issues weekly consumer sentiment data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) also issues weekly payrolls & wages data. Also on Tuesday, the NAB business survey is released for July. Confidence and conditions had improved in June as the economy reopened with significant policy stimulus to support Aussie businesses and workers.
Australia: Reserve Bank dominates proceedings
On Monday The week starts on Monday, with CoreLogic to release July data on home prices in its Home Value report. Home prices likely fell by 0.8% in July with declines led by Melbourne (-1.1%) and Sydney (-0.8%). Adelaide home prices were flat and Brisbane prices may have eased just 0.2%. Also, on Monday, both CBA and AiGroup will release the results of surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, the IHS Markit 'flash' manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) lifted to 51.3 in July from 49.8 in June (survey: 52). The services PMI rose to 49.6 in July from 47.9 in June (survey: 51). New home sales rose by 13.8% in June (survey: 3.6%) to an annualised rate of 776,000 units - a near 13-year high. US share markets closed lower on Friday amid rising geo-political uncertainty.
Australia: Inflation in focus
Inflation data dominates in the coming week. At present the quarterly data on price changes doesn’t rank highly for investors with the pandemic impacting on wage growth and consumer demand. The drought has also eased on Australia’s East Coast, potentially keeping a lid on food prices. On Monday The week starts on Monday, when CommSec releases its quarterly State of the States report. The ranking of economic performance shows how states and territories fared in the early months of the virus crisis.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, housing starts rose 17.3% in June to a 1.186 million annual rate (survey 1.29m) with building permits up 2.1% to 1.241m (survey 1.29m). Consumer sentiment fell from 78.1 to 73.2 in July (survey 79.0) US share markets were mixed on Friday as investors balanced the scope for more fiscal stimulus against the potential for more lockdowns. Shares in Goldman Sachs lost 1.5%, weighing on the Dow Jones index.
Australia: Budget update and Reserve Bank Governor speech
On Tuesday The week kicks off on Tuesday, with a speech delivered by the Reserve Bank Governor, Philip Lowe, to the Anika Foundation luncheon. Prior to the new lockdown in Victoria, the Governor had been upbeat on prospects for the Australian economy. There will be much interest in the new comments by the Governor. Also, on Tuesday, the regular weekly survey on consumer confidence is issued by ANZ and Roy Morgan.
Good morning, Australia
Monday, 13 July, 2020 In US economic data, producer prices fell 0.2% in June (survey (+0.2%) with core prices (excludes food and energy) down by 0.3% (survey: +0.2%). How’dy USA US share markets rose on Friday. Investors were encouraged by news that Gilead's remdesivir drug was found to significantly improve clinical recovery and reduced the risk of death in COVID-19 patients. Shares in Gilead rose 2.2%. Shares in Netflix rose 8.1% on a broker upgrade. The Dow Jones index rose by 369 points or 1.4%.
Australia: Reserve Bank Board meeting in focus
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday with June readings on the inflation gauge from Melbourne Institute and job advertisements from ANZ On Tuesday On Tuesday, the AiGroup’s services activity gauge is expected to lift further in June as the economy continues to gradually re-open after the virus shutdown in April. Also, on Tuesday the regular weekly survey on consumer confidence is issued by ANZ and Roy Morgan.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, personal income fell by 4.2% in May (survey: -6%), but spending rose by a record 8.2% (survey: 9.3%). The key inflation measure rose by 0.1% in May (survey: flat). Consumer sentiment rose from 72.3 in May to 78.1 in June (survey: 79.2). US share markets fell sharply on Friday. Texas and Florida halted drinking at bars and Arizona reported a surge in COVID-19 infections.
Australia: A new financial year commences
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases its latest weekly “Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey.” On Tuesday On Tuesday, weekly readings on consumer confidence (ANZ-Roy Morgan), credit & debit card spending (Commonwealth Bank) and “Payroll Jobs and Wages” (ABS) are released. Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank (RBA) releases private sector credit data for May.
Australia: Mixed statistical offerings
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe participates in the ANU Crawford Leadership Forum – “Global Economy and COVID-19.” On Tuesday On Tuesday, the regular ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly reading on consumer confidence is due with the ‘flash’ (preliminary) CBA purchasing managers survey results, weekly CBA card spending data and preliminary May data on exports of goods and services.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, export prices rose by 0.5% in May (survey: 0.5%). Import prices rose by 1% in May (survey: 0.6%). The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 72.3 in May to 78.9 in June (survey: 75). US share markets rebounded on Friday after the biggest fall in 12 weeks on Thursday. In a wild trading session, the Cboe Volatility Index rose to its highest level since April and traded above 43 before moving back near 36 by the closing bell.
Australia: Jobs, tourism & population data in focus
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday when the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases tourism and migration data in the Overseas Arrivals and Departures publication for April. In the provisional release, arrivals fell by 98.7% in April compared to the same month last year. And departures fell by 96.5% over the period due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. Also, the ABS releases the latest Household Impacts of COVID-19 survey on Monday.
Australia: From statistical feast to famine
On Monday On Monday holidays are observed in NSW, Victoria, ACT, South Australia, Northern Territory and Tasmania. And trading also will not be conducted on the ASX. On Tuesday In terms of economic data, the week kicks off on Tuesday with the NAB business survey, ANZ job advertisement series, and weekly CBA card spending data. The NAB business confidence index rose from -65.4 points in March to -45.7 points in April. But the business conditions index fell from -22.0 points to -34.1 points.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA US President Donald Trump said his administration will begin to eliminate special treatment for Hong Kong in response to China's plans to impose new security legislation in the territory. In US economic data, personal income rose by 10.5% in April (forecast -6.5%) but spending fell by 13.6% (forecast -12.6%). The key inflation measure fell 0.4% to be up 1% on the year. Consumer sentiment rose from 71.8 in April to 72.3 in May.
Australia: Winter Whirlwind
On Monday The week kicks off on Monday with manufacturing surveys from AiGroup and the Commonwealth Bank (CBA). The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge is released. And CoreLogic’s national home price index is tipped to fall by around 0.5 per cent in May. On Tuesday On ‘Super Tuesday’, the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) issues the ‘Business Indicators’ publication that includes data on profits, sales, wages and stocks.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA US share markets closed mixed on Friday. US-China tensions dominated. The US Commerce Department said it was adding 33 Chinese companies and other institutions to an economic blacklist for human rights violations and to address U.S. national security concerns. Real estate rose 2.2% and energy lost 0.7%. At the close of trade, the Dow Jones index fell by 9 points or less than 0.1%. But the S&P500 index was up by 0.2%. And the Nasdaq index rose 40 points or 0.4%.
Good morning, Australia
How’dy USA In US economic data, retail sales fell 16.4% in April (forecast - 12%) to be down 21.6% on a year ago. Industrial production fell 11.2% in April (forecast -11.5%) to be down 15% on a year ago. Consumer confidence rose from 71.8 to 73.7 in May (forecast 68). Job openings, according to the JOLTS survey, eased from 7.004 million to 6.191m in March. US share markets rose on Friday despite rising US-China trade tensions.
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