Just an analyst. Defence spending and military aircraft programmes. Aviation Week, ex-Jane's
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Articles by Craig Caffrey
Data Spotlight: NATO And U.S. Defense Spending Trends
Craig Caffrey August 28, 2026 Credit: Airbus Defense and Space Craig Caffrey Craig is the head of Aviation Week's defense data team responsible for managing the company’s defense databases and leading on related consultancy projects. Data Spotlight: NATO And U.S. Defense Spending Trends is part of our Aviation Week & Space Technology - Inside MRO and AWIN subscriptions.
Budget Brief: How The Defense Boom Is Reshaping Markets
Craig Caffrey August 27, 2026 Credit: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty/Aviation Week Network The world is currently in the midst of its biggest defense boom in decades as nations respond to a deteriorating security environment and rising levels of strategic instability. Spending on defense procurement in particular has skyrocketed, rising from $441 billion in 2021 to $770 billion in 2026, a...
Budget Brief: Europe ReArm’s Remarkable Progress
Craig Caffrey August 14, 2026 Eurofighter Typhoon Credit: Mark Wagner/Aviation-Images In March 2025 the European Commission presented its ReArm Europe Plan, aiming to mobilize €800 billion ($922.9 billion) in funding for regional military modernization. The money would come from two sources: €650 billion from loosening fiscal rules to enable countries to raise defense spending...
Budget Brief: NATO Members Make Progress Against 3.5% Of GDP Goal
Craig Caffrey July 31, 2026 Credit: Namaki/Alamy and Aviation Week In the midst of NATO’s Ankara summit in July, the alliance released its latest set of data on the defense budgets of its member states, showing further significant increases in military spending. Against the longstanding guidelines for spending 2% of GDP on defense and 20% of the total on military...
Budget Brief: Defense Investment Plan Slows UK Spending Growth
Craig Caffrey July 15, 2026 Credit: PhotoEdit/Alamy/Aviation Week After months of negotiations, the release of the UK’s Defense Investment Plan (DIP) on June 30 finally provided some clarity around the future of British defense spending—at least over the medium term. Newly installed Defense Minister Dan Jarvis said the increase in funding outlined in the plan...
Global Defense Spending Trends In Focus
Rachel Hutchison Craig Caffrey July 10, 2026 Eurofighter Typhoon (top) and Lockheed Martin F-35 backlogs have grown as global defense spending ramps up. Credit: William Lewis/UK Defense Ministry Rachel Hutchison Rachel manages Aviation Week's defense market intelligence team, providing qualitative country and capability focused analysis on global defense markets.
Budget Brief: New Special Budget For Taiwan, But With Caveats
Craig Caffrey June 30, 2026 Taiwan's Block 70 F-16. Credit: Lockheed Martin In late May Taiwan finally approved a new special budget for defense, ensuring that the country’s defense budget will continue to be augmented by supplemental funds beyond 2026. The new budget will add TWN780 billion ($24.5 billion) to spending over the coming years, with the majority of the funding...
Aviation Week Forecast: Global CCA Fleet Set To Rocket
Craig Caffrey June 08, 2026 Credit: Boeing/Aviation Week Collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) represent the most consequential development in air combat since the introduction of guided weapons. Designed to operate in conjunction with crewed fighters to enhance their lethality and survivability, and—crucially—to add mass to depleted tactical aircraft...
Budget Brief: Germany Ramps Up Defense Spending…Again
Craig Caffrey June 05, 2026 Credit: Luftwaffe There was a time when tracking the German defense budget was a straightforward, uninteresting, entirely predictable annual task. Between the year 2000 and 2018 military spending barely moved in real terms, fluctuating between a low of $55 billion and a high of $60.9 billion throughout the 19-year...
Budget Brief: Germany Ramps Up Defense Spending ... Again
Craig Caffrey June 05, 2026 Credit: Luftwaffe There was a time when tracking the German defense budget was a straightforward, uninteresting, entirely predictable annual task. Between the year 2000 and 2018 military spending barely moved in real terms, fluctuating between a low of $55 billion and a high of $60.9 billion throughout the 19-year...
Budget Brief: The U.S. Fiscal 2027 Defense Request In Context
Craig Caffrey May 21, 2026 Credit: DOD photo by Master Sgt. Ken Hammond, USAF The U.S. has long been the global leader in defense spending. In 2026 the Pentagon is set to spend more on defense than the next seven highest spenders combined, and that’s without factoring in a potential supplemental budget for the war with Iran. But the 2027 budget request takes this supremacy to...
Budget Breakdown: Germany’s Pedal-To-The-Metal Defense Spending Plan
Craig Caffrey May 20, 2026 Germany has been growing its Airbus A400M and Eurofighter Typhoon fleets and is now looking at further expansion. Credit: Christian Timmig/German Armed Forces Craig Caffrey Craig is the head of Aviation Week Network's defense data team responsible for managing the company’s defense databases and leading on related consultancy projects.
Budget Brief: Growth In The Gulf
Craig Caffrey May 08, 2026 Credit: U.S. Air Force Even for a region like the Middle East that is accustomed to acute security concerns, the last three years have represented a period of unusually high strategic instability and outright conflict. Whether it be Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon, extensive and ongoing strikes by Tel Aviv and the...
Budget Brief: Europe’s $3 Trillion Defense Decade
Craig Caffrey April 24, 2026 Credit: Eurosam/Aviation Week Just five years ago, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and when U.S. security commitments to Europe looked solid, projections for defense spending on the continent appeared flat. Aviation Week’s forecast for military expenditure in January 2021 showed governments in the region investing $1.1...
Gripen E/F Export Drive Gathers Pace In 2025
Craig is the head of Aviation Week Network's defense data team responsible for managing the company's defense databases and leading on related consultancy projects.
Open Opportunities To Reach $250B In Military Aircraft Market
Craig is the head of Aviation Week Network's defense data team responsible for managing the company's defense databases and leading on related consultancy projects.
Weapons Analysis: Exports Remain A Growing Focus For MENA Region
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa have invested heavily in small arms, munitions and complex weapons over the past three years, making it the largest market segment after military aircraft. Aviation Week data on major defense contracts signed in the region between 2023 and 2025 shows...
Land Analysis: MENA Drive For Self-Sufficiency Leads To Significant Milestones
Data from Aviation Week’s database shows that MENA governments awarded major contracts for land platforms (including procurement, upgrades, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul-related services) worth $4.40 billion between 2023 and 2025. Underscoring the regional drive to increase self-sufficiency...
Fleet Analysis: Robust Outlook For Middle East Military Aircraft Market
The outlook for the Middle East military aircraft market over the coming decade is robust: 2,108 aircraft valued at $110.1 billion will be delivered between 2026 and 2035 as regional air forces modernize their fleets and expand their air power capabilities, Aviation Week’s Defense Market Analyzer’s...
Aviation Week Forecasts: F-35 To Lead In Military Aircraft Deliveries For The Decade
Aviation Week Forecasts: F-35 To Lead In Military Aircraft Deliveries For The Decade 22,132 military aircraft will be delivered to operators around the world between 2026 and 2035, including at least 1,368 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II multirole fighters. [Editor’s Note: This analysis is the fourth in a five-part series exploring Aviation Week Network’s new 2026 Military Fleet & MRO forecast.
Budget Brief: Funding On Track For Tokyo’s Defense Buildup Plan
For Japan, 2026 marks the penultimate year of its Defense Buildup Plan (DBP). The five-year project was initiated in December 2022 in response to a perceived deterioration in the regional security environment to pursue two core aims. First, Tokyo sought to expand military capabilities to enable...
Aviation Week Forecasts: Military Aircraft Aftermarket To Outpace Procurement Spending
[Editor’s Note: This analysis is the second in a five-part series exploring Aviation Week Network’s new 2026 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast. For more information about the forecast and other Aviation Week data products, please see: https://pgs.aviationweek.com/forecast ] While major new contracts...
Aviation Week Forecasts: 2026-2035 Military Aircraft Market Worth Over $2.7 Trillion
[Editor’s Note: This analysis is the first in a five-part series exploring Aviation Week Network’s new 2026 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast. For more information about the forecast and other Aviation Week data products, please see: https://pgs.aviationweek.com/forecast ] Recently Aviation Week Network...
Why China’s Military Spending Dominance Is Being Delayed
China’s military buildup has been a critical driver of defense budget increases elsewhere in the region. The seemingly inevitable point at which China’s defense budget will top the combined military spending of its neighbors is slipping ever later as those countries keep boosting their coffers to counter Beijing. Asia has long been a growth engine for global defense spending. In 2000-25, Asian military...
Budget Brief: Global Defense Boom Set To Accelerate In 2026
It is hard not to have noticed that recent years have represented a boom period for the defense sector. Between 2022 and 2025, global military spending expanded at an average rate of 5.5% in real terms, well ahead of the 2.5% average seen between 2000 and 2022, a period that included the wars in...
Reshaping modern manufacturing
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Budget Brief: Saudi Arabian Defense Spending In The Doldrums
In terms of spending on its military, Saudi Arabia is the dominant power in the Middle East. As recently as 2018, the kingdom was the world’s fourth largest spender on defense and accounted for as much as 40% of regional military expenditure. Since that time, the defense budget has stagnated...
Budget Brief: Algeria, Israel Masking Subdued MENA Spending
With global defense budget growth at its highest level in decades and attention very much on conflicts in the Middle East, it is perhaps unsurprising that regional military spending has increased significantly over the last three years. The defense budgets of the Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA...
Budget Brief: How Ukraine Can Pay For Gripens
Last week, news broke that Ukraine is planning to purchase up to 150 Saab Gripen multirole fighter aircraft as part of long-term plans to rebuild its air force. One of the key questions that has been asked since is how the program—valued at more than $12 billion—would be funded, given the...
Budget Brief: Defense Spending Growth Accelerates In South Korea
It is not just Europe that has come under pressure from the Trump administration to raise defense spending. Recent statements from and discussions between administration officials and the governments of Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have consistently delivered the message that they expect...
Budget Brief: Polish Defense Spending Reaches Its Peak
Upon the release of NATO’s latest set of military expenditure statistics in August, one country stood out as leading the way in terms of many of the key metrics. Since 2022, Poland has become the alliance’s top spender in relation to GDP, reaching an estimated 4.5% of GDP in 2025. The country is...
Budget Brief: Europe Drives U.S. FMS To Record Levels
Last month the U.S. government released its latest set of statistics on Foreign Military Sales (FMS), confirming the long-suspected news that 2024 represented a record year. Having stood at levels of around $40-50 billion a year between 2017 and 2022, sales rose to $62.2 billion in 2023 and hit an...
Budget Brief: When Is 2% Of GDP Not 2% Of GDP?
Last week NATO released its official statistics for alliance member defense spending covering the period up to 2025, which made for interesting reading. Miraculously—following decades of underspending by the majority of allies—all 32 members are set to spend 2% of GDP on their militaries, up from 19...
NATO Says All Members Will Meet 2% Spending Target
NATO anticipates that all of its 32 members will meet its longstanding target to spend 2% of GDP on defense, though only three meet the revised 3.5% target figure alliance members agreed to achieve in core military spending by 2035. Poland is leading the pack with 4.48% of GDP expected to go to...
Budget Brief: Asia-Pacific Defense Growth Back On Track
Between 2005 and 2020, global defense budget growth was primarily driven by the Asia-Pacific region. Through that period regional spending grew at an average rate of 4.9% in real terms compared to 0.5% in Europe and 1.2% in the U.S. Asian defense spending increased every year during this period...
Budget Brief: Europe’s Big Guns Outline Defense Budget Plans
In June NATO allies agreed to a new 3.5% target for their core defense budgets. On paper this will add another $220 billion or so to the existing $538.3 billion total allocated by Europe’s 19 highest spenders and see regional defense budgets more than double compared to 2021 levels. The hope of...
Budget Brief: Political Uncertainty Increases With Fiscal 2026 Request
Over the last few weeks, a slow but steady stream of data has been released on the U.S. fiscal 2026 (FY26) defense budget request, the first of President Donald Trump’s second administration. The new budget—if passed as intended—would represent a substantial increase of around 11% in nominal terms...
French President Outlines Defense Spending Hike
French President Emmanuel Macron plans for a hike in the country’s defense spending to respond to the growing threat perception. The uptick would see French defense spending rise from €50.5 billion ($59 billion) this year to €57.2 billion next year and €63.4 billion the year after, taking defense...
Budget Brief: New NATO Targets Less Impactful Than They Appear
NATO’s June 2025 summit will no doubt go down as a key point in the alliance’s history. Headlines since the start of the meeting in the Hague firmly suggest that member states agreed to a massive increase in defense-related spending, with NATO shifting guidelines on levels of defense spending from 2...
Budget Brief: The European Defense Sector’s Golden Opportunity
The surge in European spending on military equipment since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been remarkable. Between 2021 and 2025, levels of procurement expenditure more than doubled, increasing by 103.6% from $83.5 billion to $170.1 billion. In terms of demand, Europe is a defense...
Budget Brief: UK SDR Heavy On Threats, Light On Funding
On June 2, the UK government unveiled its latest Strategic Defense Review (SDR) which aims to move Britain toward “warfighting readiness” in an increasingly unstable and dangerous world. The new strategy is clear on the challenges and threats facing the UK and what is needed to deal with them, but...
Budget Brief: European Procurement Spending Passes U.S. Levels
Underinvestment in defense has long been a criticism leveled at Europe by successive administrations on the other side of the Atlantic. In the year 2000, before the Sept. 11 attacks, European countries spent around 60% as much as the U.S. on military capabilities. By 2011, with U.S. troop numbers in...
Budget Brief: What Counts As Defense Spending?
A number of Europe's last defense budget holdouts finally, in April, agreed to meet NATO's longstanding 2% of GDP guideline level for military expenditure. The Belgian, Italian and Spanish governments all announced plans to raise spending to the benchmark level before the end of 2025. On paper...
Budget Brief: Sweden’s Defense Spending ‘Trump Bump’
Few countries have responded to Europe’s much-changed strategic reality in such an emphatic fashion as Sweden. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Stockholm almost immediately moved to end its historic position of military nonalignment by joining the transatlantic NATO alliance...
Budget Brief: What Does A $1 Trillion Defense Budget Look Like?
With characteristic unpredictability during a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would soon reveal its first $1 trillion defense budget. Later confirmed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and apparently in... Subscription Required Budget Brief: What Does A $1 Trillion Defense Budget Look Like?
Budget Brief: Fiscal Realities Constrain European Ambition
Denmark's Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen (center), alongside other European defense ministers in Warsaw last week. Denmark and other nordic countries have implemented defense spending increases in excess of 70%. European defense spending may be growing faster now than at any time since World War II, but trends continue to vary significantly from country to country. In Poland, spending is up 181% in real terms compared to 2021 levels.
Budget Brief: Australian Budget Growth Gathers Pace
With a general election looming, Australia announced an early 2025-26 budget which included a boost to defense spending despite a wider focus on tax cuts ahead of the polls opening on May 3. Funding for the country's Defense Department (DOD) will increase by 7.5% compared to the 2024-25 budget...
Budget Brief: Europe Plans For Further Defense Spending Growth
Over the last three years, European defense spending has grown faster than at any time since World War II. This year Europe will collectively spend more than $500 billion on defense compared to less than $400 billion in 2021, a real-terms increase of around 30%. Investment in new defense equipment...
Budget Brief: Defense Defies Chinese Economic Slowdown
China's defense budget was announced on the fringes of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. With all eyes on the transatlantic spat between the new administration in Washington and its allies in Europe, China quietly released details of its budget plans for 2025, which include a 7.2% increase for military spending. Announced, as has become customary, on the fringes of the annual National...
Budget Brief: The Reality Of Britain’s 2.5% GDP Defense Spending Pledge
Against a backdrop of ever more strained relations between the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Canada, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced last week that the UK would raise defense expenditure to 2.5% of GDP by the 2027-28 budget, up from 2.3% today. The move—according to the...
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