Craig Caffrey on Muck Rack

Craig Caffrey

London
As seen in: Aviation Week, Omdia, Janes
Just an analyst. Defence spending and military aircraft programmes. Aviation Week, ex-Jane's
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Articles by Craig Caffrey

Budget Brief: New Special Budget For Taiwan, But With Caveats

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig Caffrey June 30, 2026 Taiwan's Block 70 F-16. Credit: Lockheed Martin In late May Taiwan finally approved a new special budget for defense, ensuring that the country’s defense budget will continue to be augmented by supplemental funds beyond 2026. The new budget will add TWN780 billion ($24.5 billion) to spending over the coming years, with the majority of the funding...
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Aviation Week Forecast: Global CCA Fleet Set To Rocket

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig Caffrey June 08, 2026 Credit: Boeing/Aviation Week Collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) represent the most consequential development in air combat since the introduction of guided weapons. Designed to operate in conjunction with crewed fighters to enhance their lethality and survivability, and—crucially—to add mass to depleted tactical aircraft...
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Budget Brief: Germany Ramps Up Defense Spending ... Again

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig Caffrey June 05, 2026 Credit: Luftwaffe There was a time when tracking the German defense budget was a straightforward, uninteresting, entirely predictable annual task. Between the year 2000 and 2018 military spending barely moved in real terms, fluctuating between a low of $55 billion and a high of $60.9 billion throughout the 19-year...
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Budget Brief: Germany Ramps Up Defense Spending…Again

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig Caffrey June 05, 2026 Credit: Luftwaffe There was a time when tracking the German defense budget was a straightforward, uninteresting, entirely predictable annual task. Between the year 2000 and 2018 military spending barely moved in real terms, fluctuating between a low of $55 billion and a high of $60.9 billion throughout the 19-year...
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Budget Brief: The U.S. Fiscal 2027 Defense Request In Context

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig Caffrey May 21, 2026 Credit: DOD photo by Master Sgt. Ken Hammond, USAF The U.S. has long been the global leader in defense spending. In 2026 the Pentagon is set to spend more on defense than the next seven highest spenders combined, and that’s without factoring in a potential supplemental budget for the war with Iran. But the 2027 budget request takes this supremacy to...
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Budget Breakdown: Germany’s Pedal-To-The-Metal Defense Spending Plan

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig Caffrey May 20, 2026 Germany has been growing its Airbus A400M and Eurofighter Typhoon fleets and is now looking at further expansion. Credit: Christian Timmig/German Armed Forces Craig Caffrey Craig is the head of Aviation Week Network's defense data team responsible for managing the company’s defense databases and leading on related consultancy projects.
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Budget Brief: Growth In The Gulf

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig Caffrey May 08, 2026 Credit: U.S. Air Force Even for a region like the Middle East that is accustomed to acute security concerns, the last three years have represented a period of unusually high strategic instability and outright conflict. Whether it be Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon, extensive and ongoing strikes by Tel Aviv and the...
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Budget Brief: Europe’s $3 Trillion Defense Decade

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig Caffrey April 24, 2026 Credit: Eurosam/Aviation Week Just five years ago, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and when U.S. security commitments to Europe looked solid, projections for defense spending on the continent appeared flat. Aviation Week’s forecast for military expenditure in January 2021 showed governments in the region investing $1.1...
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Gripen E/F Export Drive Gathers Pace In 2025

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig is the head of Aviation Week Network's defense data team responsible for managing the company's defense databases and leading on related consultancy projects.
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Open Opportunities To Reach $250B In Military Aircraft Market

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Craig is the head of Aviation Week Network's defense data team responsible for managing the company's defense databases and leading on related consultancy projects.
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Weapons Analysis: Exports Remain A Growing Focus For MENA Region

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa have invested heavily in small arms, munitions and complex weapons over the past three years, making it the largest market segment after military aircraft. Aviation Week data on major defense contracts signed in the region between 2023 and 2025 shows...
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Land Analysis: MENA Drive For Self-Sufficiency Leads To Significant Milestones

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Data from Aviation Week’s database shows that MENA governments awarded major contracts for land platforms (including procurement, upgrades, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul-related services) worth $4.40 billion between 2023 and 2025. Underscoring the regional drive to increase self-sufficiency...
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Fleet Analysis: Robust Outlook For Middle East Military Aircraft Market

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
The outlook for the Middle East military aircraft market over the coming decade is robust: 2,108 aircraft valued at $110.1 billion will be delivered between 2026 and 2035 as regional air forces modernize their fleets and expand their air power capabilities, Aviation Week’s Defense Market Analyzer’s...
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Aviation Week Forecasts: F-35 To Lead In Military Aircraft Deliveries For The Decade

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Aviation Week Forecasts: F-35 To Lead In Military Aircraft Deliveries For The Decade 22,132 military aircraft will be delivered to operators around the world between 2026 and 2035, including at least 1,368 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II multirole fighters. [Editor’s Note: This analysis is the fourth in a five-part series exploring Aviation Week Network’s new 2026 Military Fleet & MRO forecast.
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Budget Brief: Funding On Track For Tokyo’s Defense Buildup Plan

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
For Japan, 2026 marks the penultimate year of its Defense Buildup Plan (DBP). The five-year project was initiated in December 2022 in response to a perceived deterioration in the regional security environment to pursue two core aims. First, Tokyo sought to expand military capabilities to enable...
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Aviation Week Forecasts: Military Aircraft Aftermarket To Outpace Procurement Spending

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
[Editor’s Note: This analysis is the second in a five-part series exploring Aviation Week Network’s new 2026 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast. For more information about the forecast and other Aviation Week data products, please see: https://pgs.aviationweek.com/forecast ] While major new contracts...
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Aviation Week Forecasts: 2026-2035 Military Aircraft Market Worth Over $2.7 Trillion

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
[Editor’s Note: This analysis is the first in a five-part series exploring Aviation Week Network’s new 2026 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast. For more information about the forecast and other Aviation Week data products, please see: https://pgs.aviationweek.com/forecast ] Recently Aviation Week Network...
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Why China’s Military Spending Dominance Is Being Delayed

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
China’s military buildup has been a critical driver of defense budget increases elsewhere in the region. The seemingly inevitable point at which China’s defense budget will top the combined military spending of its neighbors is slipping ever later as those countries keep boosting their coffers to counter Beijing. Asia has long been a growth engine for global defense spending. In 2000-25, Asian military...
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Budget Brief: Global Defense Boom Set To Accelerate In 2026

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
It is hard not to have noticed that recent years have represented a boom period for the defense sector. Between 2022 and 2025, global military spending expanded at an average rate of 5.5% in real terms, well ahead of the 2.5% average seen between 2000 and 2022, a period that included the wars in...
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Reshaping modern manufacturing

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By Craig Caffrey
| Omdia
By All set! This article has been sent to my@email.address. All fields are required. For multiple recipients, separate email addresses with a semicolon. Please Note: Only individuals with an active subscription will be able to access the full article. All other readers will be directed to the abstract and would need to subscribe.
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Budget Brief: Saudi Arabian Defense Spending In The Doldrums

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
In terms of spending on its military, Saudi Arabia is the dominant power in the Middle East. As recently as 2018, the kingdom was the world’s fourth largest spender on defense and accounted for as much as 40% of regional military expenditure. Since that time, the defense budget has stagnated...
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Budget Brief: Algeria, Israel Masking Subdued MENA Spending

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
With global defense budget growth at its highest level in decades and attention very much on conflicts in the Middle East, it is perhaps unsurprising that regional military spending has increased significantly over the last three years. The defense budgets of the Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA...
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Budget Brief: How Ukraine Can Pay For Gripens

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Last week, news broke that Ukraine is planning to purchase up to 150 Saab Gripen multirole fighter aircraft as part of long-term plans to rebuild its air force. One of the key questions that has been asked since is how the program—valued at more than $12 billion—would be funded, given the...
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Budget Brief: Defense Spending Growth Accelerates In South Korea

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
It is not just Europe that has come under pressure from the Trump administration to raise defense spending. Recent statements from and discussions between administration officials and the governments of Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have consistently delivered the message that they expect...
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Budget Brief: Polish Defense Spending Reaches Its Peak

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Upon the release of NATO’s latest set of military expenditure statistics in August, one country stood out as leading the way in terms of many of the key metrics. Since 2022, Poland has become the alliance’s top spender in relation to GDP, reaching an estimated 4.5% of GDP in 2025. The country is...
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Budget Brief: Europe Drives U.S. FMS To Record Levels

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Last month the U.S. government released its latest set of statistics on Foreign Military Sales (FMS), confirming the long-suspected news that 2024 represented a record year. Having stood at levels of around $40-50 billion a year between 2017 and 2022, sales rose to $62.2 billion in 2023 and hit an...
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Budget Brief: When Is 2% Of GDP Not 2% Of GDP?

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Last week NATO released its official statistics for alliance member defense spending covering the period up to 2025, which made for interesting reading. Miraculously—following decades of underspending by the majority of allies—all 32 members are set to spend 2% of GDP on their militaries, up from 19...
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NATO Says All Members Will Meet 2% Spending Target

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By Robert Wall Verified, Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
NATO anticipates that all of its 32 members will meet its longstanding target to spend 2% of GDP on defense, though only three meet the revised 3.5% target figure alliance members agreed to achieve in core military spending by 2035. Poland is leading the pack with 4.48% of GDP expected to go to...
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Budget Brief: Asia-Pacific Defense Growth Back On Track

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Between 2005 and 2020, global defense budget growth was primarily driven by the Asia-Pacific region. Through that period regional spending grew at an average rate of 4.9% in real terms compared to 0.5% in Europe and 1.2% in the U.S. Asian defense spending increased every year during this period...
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Budget Brief: Europe’s Big Guns Outline Defense Budget Plans

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
In June NATO allies agreed to a new 3.5% target for their core defense budgets. On paper this will add another $220 billion or so to the existing $538.3 billion total allocated by Europe’s 19 highest spenders and see regional defense budgets more than double compared to 2021 levels. The hope of...
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Budget Brief: Political Uncertainty Increases With Fiscal 2026 Request

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Over the last few weeks, a slow but steady stream of data has been released on the U.S. fiscal 2026 (FY26) defense budget request, the first of President Donald Trump’s second administration. The new budget—if passed as intended—would represent a substantial increase of around 11% in nominal terms...
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French President Outlines Defense Spending Hike

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By Robert Wall Verified, Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
French President Emmanuel Macron plans for a hike in the country’s defense spending to respond to the growing threat perception. The uptick would see French defense spending rise from €50.5 billion ($59 billion) this year to €57.2 billion next year and €63.4 billion the year after, taking defense...
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Budget Brief: New NATO Targets Less Impactful Than They Appear

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
NATO’s June 2025 summit will no doubt go down as a key point in the alliance’s history. Headlines since the start of the meeting in the Hague firmly suggest that member states agreed to a massive increase in defense-related spending, with NATO shifting guidelines on levels of defense spending from 2...
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Budget Brief: The European Defense Sector’s Golden Opportunity

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
The surge in European spending on military equipment since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been remarkable. Between 2021 and 2025, levels of procurement expenditure more than doubled, increasing by 103.6% from $83.5 billion to $170.1 billion. In terms of demand, Europe is a defense...
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Budget Brief: UK SDR Heavy On Threats, Light On Funding

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
On June 2, the UK government unveiled its latest Strategic Defense Review (SDR) which aims to move Britain toward “warfighting readiness” in an increasingly unstable and dangerous world. The new strategy is clear on the challenges and threats facing the UK and what is needed to deal with them, but...
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Budget Brief: European Procurement Spending Passes U.S. Levels

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Underinvestment in defense has long been a criticism leveled at Europe by successive administrations on the other side of the Atlantic. In the year 2000, before the Sept. 11 attacks, European countries spent around 60% as much as the U.S. on military capabilities. By 2011, with U.S. troop numbers in...
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Budget Brief: What Counts As Defense Spending?

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
A number of Europe's last defense budget holdouts finally, in April, agreed to meet NATO's longstanding 2% of GDP guideline level for military expenditure. The Belgian, Italian and Spanish governments all announced plans to raise spending to the benchmark level before the end of 2025. On paper...
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Budget Brief: Sweden’s Defense Spending ‘Trump Bump’

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Few countries have responded to Europe’s much-changed strategic reality in such an emphatic fashion as Sweden. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Stockholm almost immediately moved to end its historic position of military nonalignment by joining the transatlantic NATO alliance...
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Budget Brief: What Does A $1 Trillion Defense Budget Look Like?

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
With characteristic unpredictability during a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would soon reveal its first $1 trillion defense budget. Later confirmed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and apparently in... Subscription Required Budget Brief: What Does A $1 Trillion Defense Budget Look Like?
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Budget Brief: Fiscal Realities Constrain European Ambition

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Denmark's Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen (center), alongside other European defense ministers in Warsaw last week. Denmark and other nordic countries have implemented defense spending increases in excess of 70%. European defense spending may be growing faster now than at any time since World War II, but trends continue to vary significantly from country to country. In Poland, spending is up 181% in real terms compared to 2021 levels.
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Budget Brief: Australian Budget Growth Gathers Pace

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
With a general election looming, Australia announced an early 2025-26 budget which included a boost to defense spending despite a wider focus on tax cuts ahead of the polls opening on May 3. Funding for the country's Defense Department (DOD) will increase by 7.5% compared to the 2024-25 budget...
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Budget Brief: Europe Plans For Further Defense Spending Growth

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Over the last three years, European defense spending has grown faster than at any time since World War II. This year Europe will collectively spend more than $500 billion on defense compared to less than $400 billion in 2021, a real-terms increase of around 30%. Investment in new defense equipment...
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Budget Brief: Defense Defies Chinese Economic Slowdown

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
China's defense budget was announced on the fringes of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. With all eyes on the transatlantic spat between the new administration in Washington and its allies in Europe, China quietly released details of its budget plans for 2025, which include a 7.2% increase for military spending. Announced, as has become customary, on the fringes of the annual National...
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Budget Brief: The Reality Of Britain’s 2.5% GDP Defense Spending Pledge

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Against a backdrop of ever more strained relations between the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Canada, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced last week that the UK would raise defense expenditure to 2.5% of GDP by the 2027-28 budget, up from 2.3% today. The move—according to the...
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Budget Brief: Singapore Defense Budget Growth Continues

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Singapore’s defense budget is set to increase by double digits for the fourth time in five years in 2025 as the city-state responds to a deteriorating global security environment. According to the Finance Ministry, the Defense Ministry's budget will increase by 12.4% over the revised estimates for...
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Budget Brief: Slow Growth Continues For India’s Defense Spending

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
India released the details of its 2025-26 budget last week, which again contained only marginal growth despite increasing modernization pressures. According to Ministry of Finance documentation, defense sector spending–which includes the budgets for the Ministry of Defense, the armed services’...
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Israel And Algeria Underpin Rise In Middle East Defense Spending

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
Middle East spending is on the upswing again. Defense expenditures in the region, excluding Iran, increased 21.8% in real terms to $195.4 billion in 2024 from $160.4 billion in 2021, marking its fastest period of growth for a decade. Despite upheaval throughout the Middle East—the Israel-Hamas war...
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Budget Brief: Challenges Ahead For Growing Middle East-North Africa Markets

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
While monumental defense budget increases in Asia and Europe have been in the spotlight over recent years, military spending has also been rising rapidly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Between 2021 and 2024, defense expenditures in the region, excluding Iran, increased by 21.8%...
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Advanced Equipment Procurement Agendas Evolve In The Middle East

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By Robert Wall Verified, Tony Osborne Verified, Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
The Eurofighter consortium is hoping for additional sales in the region, with top-up orders from both Qatar and Saudi Arabia (pictured) in the cards. Rising defense budgets in Asia and Europe in recent years mean that the Middle East no longer is the principal outlet for Western arms exports. But the region’s financial muscle and efforts to establish local arms manufacturing centers have kept it central to shaping the dynamics of the global...
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Budget Brief: Subdued Saudi Arabian Budget Continues Slow Growth Trend

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By Craig Caffrey
| Aviation Week Verified
In December Saudi Arabia released details of its 2025 budget, which includes a 5% hike in defense spending. The military’s allocation within the budget will rise from a revised estimate of SAR259 billion ($69 billion) in 2024 to SAR272 billion this year, equivalent to a real-terms increase of around...
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