Dan Alderson
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Articles by Dan Alderson
Ardagh and Altice tested CDS in 2025 - But are they on nice or naughty list?
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From CLOs to index tranches - Correlation is pulling strings even as market rallies
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ELO, is it NIH you’re looking for? Auchan CDS successors named
Join the 4,000+ professionals getting market news and analysis delivered straight to their inbox — sign up for The Memo Europe newsletter. ELO and New Immo Holding (NIH) have both been declared successors for ELO/Auchan credit default swaps, with the succession date fixed at 11 August 2025. The EMEA Determinations Committee (DC) reached this conclusion in its unanimous ruling today (26 September), following months of corporate restructuring and investor speculation.
The scaffolding is there - Rebuilding confidence in CDS
Credit default swaps (CDS) were once hailed as among the most versatile and valuable tools in credit markets, allowing investors to hedge, speculate, manage risk with precision and synthetically reproduce bond flows. Yet over the years, they have struggled to keep pace with the evolving realities of today’s credit environment, leaving them at risk of a slow and quiet decline. But that narrative is far from inevitable.
Sudden rush to settle Altice CDS as cash settlement plan is binned
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Ardagh to deliver? Doubts rattle CDS basis packages as debt talks advance
Trading in Ardagh bond plus CDS basis packages reflects growing uncertainty about whether derivative contracts referencing the Irish packaging firm could be rendered worthless, according to 9fin sources. This comes as Ardagh appears to be edging closer to a deal that would hand control of the business to its senior unsecured noteholders (SUNs).
After Petrofac’s bombshell, what’s next for UK restructurings?
9fin will host a webinar discussing Petrofac judgment and its impact on Tuesday, 8 July at 11am BST. Please register here. The UK Court of Appeal's landmark judgment in the Petrofac restructuring has jolted the market into reassessing what it really takes to get a plan sanctioned under Part 26A. In upholding one of two appeal grounds raised by dissenting creditors Samsung and Saipem, the ruling rewires expectations around fairness, new money, and evidence.
Altice France Holding document adds weight to CDS trigger claims
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9Questions - Orlando Gemes, Fourier Asset Management - Finding alpha in the margins
9Questions is our Q&A series featuring key decision-makers in the corporate credit markets — get in touch at marketing@9fin.com if you know who we should be talking to! Convertible bonds can sometimes feel like the forgotten child of the capital structure, especially for investors steeped in leveraged finance. But in this conversation with Orlando Gemes, the founder of Fourier Asset Management (FAM), a specialist credit hedge fund, we hear why convertibles deserve a second look.
Avon CDS payout ends 66 cents after second-half surge in auction
A remarkable second half turnaround in the 24 September Avon Products credit default swap auction shifted the balance from protection sellers to protection buyers. The Avon auction, hosted by Creditex, produced an initial market midpoint of 63.375 cents.
Atos ruled as credit event in Europe's first CDS trigger since Casino
News and Analysis Dan Alderson 30 July 2024•3 min read Atos SE has triggered a credit event on CDS contracts, making it the first company in Europe for almost a year to do so. And the decision this time was a lot faster in coming than in the 2023 Casino Guichard-Perrachon case, sources noted. The EMEA Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee initially met on Friday and today (Tuesday) at 2pm London time ruled Atos has triggered a bankruptcy credit event.
Worth the Accell? TLB low bid puts whitelists back in focus
News and Analysis Dan Alderson +Laura Thompson + 1 more 8 July 2024•5 min read A mystery bid for Accell’s Term Loan B has piqued the curiosity of market participants and reignited discussion about the adverse impact of whitelists on investors, sources have told 9fin.
After Altice, and after Covid - Are European labs the next CLO test?
News and Analysis Dan Alderson 23 May 2024•6 min read The loan market is on lookout for the next Altice-like shock, and some believe the laboratory services companies that thrived during Covid and dived afterwards could create the next big headache for European CLO managers. The impact of distress in widely held capital stacks took centre-stage in March when Altice France said it expected creditors to take losses in order to tame leverage.
CDS shake-up leaves names such as Atos and Altice in limbo
News and Analysis Dan Alderson 13 May 2024•10 min read An overhaul of market infrastructure is about to impact high yield and distressed credit markets, yet may have gone under the radar. It will also provide morbid fascination for onlookers if — as seems likely — the plans encounter pushback from those who operate that very market infrastructure. Read all our public content for free Sign up for our newsletter to read this article now We won't spam. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Altice debt blowout a hit to CLOs across capital structure
The price action on Altice France (SFR) debt following the company’s fourth quarter earnings has dramatically punctured trading prices and quotes in its bonds and loans, both of which are held broadly across CLO funds.
Macro Prophet - WAL and Peace
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” However you associate the part of February just gone — Lunar new year, Presidents' Day, or just plain half term holiday — it often marks a change of gears, after which financial markets properly pick up the pace. In recent years, however, it has also been when unusual events out of left field have wreaked havoc on the best laid plans of mice and money managers.
Macro Prophet - The sleeping dragon rumbles
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 7 February 2024•10 min read Nian was a fierce dragon that used to rule the land until a magical warrior put a spell on him. Because of this spell, Nian was forced to hide in a mountain under the sea. But in spring Nian came out to fill his empty stomach… Financial markets are at a pinch point, to use the parlance of novel writing, in which the actions and agenda of the main antagonist are liable to appear.
Macro Prophet - Ones and zeros
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 17 January 2024•8 min read “We are all living, at most, half of a life, she thought. There was the life you lived, which consisted of the choices you made. And then, there was the other life, the one that was the things you hadn’t chosen.” Only halfway through January and already the outlook for 2024 looks incredibly binary for credit risk.
Macro Prophet - Barbenheimer II
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 5 January 2024•9 min read When a war breaks out, people say: “It’s too stupid; it can’t last long.” But though a war may well be 'too stupid', that doesn’t prevent its lasting. Stupidity has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.
Macro Prophet - A spot of zugzwang
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 29 November 2023•11 min read "In the beginning of the game ignore the search for combinations, abstain from violent moves, aim for small advantages, accumulate them, and only after having attained these ends search for the combination — and then with all the power of will and intellect, because then the combination must exist, however deeply hidden." Whether you believe credit conditions have decisively turned a corner or are due to get tougher, it’s hard to maintain...
Macro Prophet - The thief of time
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 31 October 2023•8 min read “Behind every exquisite thing that existed, there was something tragic.” We’ve reached that point of the cycle. The dust sheet is falling off the canvas, the credit market’s mid-September illusion of youthful energy is gone, confronted in October by the gnarly true portrait that’s been locked up in the attic. Happy Halloween.
Macro Prophet - Getting perspective
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 16 October 2023•8 min read More big moves might have been expected this week, but markets have found themselves in a deeply uneasy equilibrium as the world braces against the threat of an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza, Iran jumping into the fray, the imminent prospect of Chinese property firm Country Garden defaulting on its offshore debt, oscillating Fed hike probabilities, and an offsetting tension between oil prices, equities and government bond yields.
Macro Prophet - A piano on a mountain
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 9 October 2023•10 min read “There is no such sense of solitude as that which we experience upon the silent and vast elevations of great mountains.
Macro Prophet - Where the bullet wants to go
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 11 September 2023•11 min read And the more of them magics you use the more bad days you have without ‘em So it comes down to finally All your days being bad without the bullets It’s magics or nothing Time to stop chipping around and kidding yourself Kid, you’re hooked Heavy as lead Read all our public content for free Sign up for our newsletter to read this article now We won't spam. You can unsubscribe at any time. Recently Published What are you waiting for?
Macro Prophet - Sucked into a bagel
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 4 September 2023•14 min read Every failure here branched off into a success for another Evelyn in another life. Most people only have a few significant alternate life paths so close to them. But you, here… you’re capable of anything because you’re so bad at everything. I had a literary theme lined up for this week’s Macro Prophet, but dropped it after reading Deutsche Bank’s “Early Morning Reid” commentary on Monday.
Macro Prophet - Pain or pleasure awaits
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 28 August 2023•8 min read Spring, if it lingers more than a week beyond its span, starts to hunger for summer to end the days of perpetual promise. Summer in its turn soon begins to sweat for something to quench its heat, and the mellowest of autumns will tire of gentility at last, and ache for a quick sharp frost to kill its fruitfulness. Even winter — the hardest season, the most implacable — dreams, as February creeps on, of the flame that will presently melt it away.
Macro Prophet - One summit, two world orders, countless CLOs
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 21 August 2023•9 min read “In the light of the moon a little egg lay on a leaf…” As any structured credit trader will tell you, last week was all all about BWICs. But what should be on investors' minds this week, and much more than it appears to be, is BRICS — the big recently invigorated caterpillar situation.
Macro Prophet - ESG on trial
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 14 August 2023•10 min read "Judgement does not come suddenly. The proceedings gradually merge into the judgement.” As we move towards the back end of the year, concerns about terminal interest rates and the prospect of a global recession are abating from the minds of investors, and the general public.
Macro Prophet - Discovering ice
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 1 August 2023•11 min read “It was as if God had decided to put to the test every capacity for surprise and was keeping the inhabitants of Macondo in a permanent alternation between excitement and disappointment, doubt and revelation, to such an extreme that no one knew for certain where the limits of reality lay.
Here we go a-Bain - Tight Euro CLO takes tally to three in a month
Time is running out for managers to get new CLOs over the line before the summer lull, but Bain Capital has certainly been no slouch — having priced its third deal in three separate markets and less than a month. Bain Capital Euro CLO 2023-1, arranged by Jefferies, came on Monday at a total notional size of €365m, including €24m of equity. The €228.7m triple A piece pays just 175bps over Euribor, one of the tighter prints in the European market.
Macro Prophet - A tangled web for CLOs
You know what a miracle is. Not what Bakunin said. But another world’s intrusion into this one. Most of the time we coexist peacefully, but when we do touch there’s cataclysm… Having been on holiday last week, I’m catching up with the Altice party. The island of Samothraki has plenty of goats, cats and waterfalls, but not much 4G. If you also need a fast connection to what happened with Altice, check out 9fin’s coverage here, hereand here.
Macro Prophet - banging yuan
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 16 July 2023•10 min read Thirty spokes converge at one hub; What is not there makes the wheel useful. At a time of high tension between the US and China over trade, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s trip to China has revealed a mystery at the heart of Chinese economic policy. It is worth attention as China itself is a mystery element in western investors’ forward outlooks.
Macro Prophet - relative value and other animals
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 9 July 2023•10 min read They were maps that lived, maps that one could study, frown over, add to; maps, in short, that really meant something.” The past week won’t go down as the most eventful in July, let alone the year, but it was one in which investors tried to firm up their outlook on central bank rates and second half asset performance. For those in the CLO market it was a chance to take a better reading of what’s coming down the line in primary.
Macro Prophet - The better half
“After thunder comes the rain” It’s not clear to me if the Ancient Greeks had a word for punctuality, so I’ll use my time off last week in Athens as excuse for the late publication of this column. But in truth the efforts of my colleagues — see the Friday Workout andExcess Spread — inspired me to type away furtively in the National Archaeological Museum on my own thoughts until my partner realised what I was up to and said there was no place on our holiday for Thames Water.
Macro Prophet - le crisis imaginaire?
Market Wrap Dan Alderson 22 June 2023•8 min read “He must have killed off an awful lot of patients to have made all that money.” Kill or cure feels like the theme of the moment, and grave prognoses abound in various parts of the financial world that it is the cure that is killing the patient. Economically, “the sick man of Europe” has made the rounds once again as every armchair MD tries to diagnose the UK’s list of economic ailments.
LevFin Wrap - HY spring blooms but at a price
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LevFin Wrap - Copeland heats up primary as borrowers keep issuance plans afloat
A shorter London week and a series of highly anticipated central bank policy rate decisions might have been enough for many to assume a pause in the newly-revived pipeline for European corporate debt. But Thursday’s unveiling of three new high yield bonds in primary — most notably a swiftly priced euro tranche for Copeland— shows borrowers are primed to jump into what they still regard as a viable issuance window despite such macroeconomic uncertainties.
Credit investors spot bright spots in gloomy outlook: Credit Rendezvous Q4 2022
This quarterly Creditflux report covers widely traded assets such as CLOs and CDS, through to buy and hold investments such as distressed debt, and everything in between. Clouds are looming over financial markets as the fourth quarter begins — so investors are moving away from diversified approaches in favour of tailored investments and relative value plays.
Funds - Creditflux.com
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