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Articles by Daniel Nevins
Thinking about AI
Given rapid developments in artificial intelligence, questions about the implications of manufactured minds for Jewish life have grown urgent. Back in 2019 I authored a responsum (rabbinic legal opinion) on this subject for the Rabbinical Assembly’s Committee on Jewish Law and Standards, and I have spoken at several academic conferences examining the implications of AI for Jewish law.
Rabbi Daniel Nevins
Local, national and global Jewish life
Rabbi Daniel Nevins
The Times of Israel Partner in New Jersey
Torah Portion: Jewish Devotion Elevates the Soul — Detroit Jewish News
Parshat Tazria: Leviticus 12:1-13:59; II Kings 4:42-5:19. Great art requires two elements: technical mastery and deep inspiration. In the magical moments when such art is created, the artist becomes a medium for translating inspiration into reality, thereby transforming the world itself. The Jewish philosopher Martin Buber wrote about the constant interaction between inspired moments and those that are superficial and flat.
Wrestling for Blessing
On the eve of his dreaded reunion with Esau, Jacob remained alone in the dark, and “a man wrestled with him until the break of dawn.” The mysterious assailant injured Jacob, dislocating his thigh, but Jacob refused to let go, so the man pleaded with him, saying: “Let me go, for dawn is breaking!” Jacob replied, “I will not let you go unless you bless me.” The assailant asked for Jacob’s name, and conferred a new one, Israel, “for you have striven with beings divine and human, and have...
The Thrill of Victory and the Agony of Defeat
Like millions of American children in the 1970s, I tuned in weekly to ABC’s “Wide World of Sports.” The opening sequence showed one skier gracefully racing down a mountain, and then another spectacularly wiping out while the narrator promised viewers “the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.” Something tragic and true was contained in this message. The possibility of calamity makes moments of triumph precious and worth pursuing. The same narrative device is employed by the Torah.
6 Reasons Why This Is (Or Isn't) The Worst Economy Since The Great Depression
When the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee draws the boundaries on the current recession, it’s unlikely to stand out as an especially long one. In fact, by the time the committee publishes the official start date, it could be past its end date. Why? Because it’s front-loaded. Spending has dropped so sharply in such a large portion of the economy that many types of activity have nowhere to go but up. And once activity starts increasing, even from nothing, that’s expansion, not recession.
Coronavirus Lesson #1 For Investors: Beware Predictions Of Market Bottoms
With hoops “out” and exponentials “in” (referring to March Madness, the 2020 pandemic definition), there’s a new, customary disclaimer on economics and financial sites. Mine says that I, too, knew nothing about infectious disease modeling only two months ago. But I’m catching up, just like everyone else. By now, I might have reached a “Dummies Guide” standard, and I’ll keep this article at about that level.
Straightforward Calculations On COVID-19 Risks
As recently as two weeks ago, it wasn’t clear which infectious disease experts had the best handle on COVID-19’s likely path. Among the optimists, one operation ran a model in February that showed the following maximum case counts by the “end of the epidemic.” (I’ve included the running case tally as well, using data from the .) With the benefit of hindsight, these well-intentioned forecasts were clearly too low.
How Do You Think? Part 1: Mind-Body Dualism
Jewish sources do not say much about consciousness per se. As JTS professor Dr. Alan Mittleman writes, “The Jewish sources…are concerned not with what consciousness is, but instead with how we use our consciousness as responsible beings.” If the question were how a person may use their conscious mind to learn information, skills and values, then I could speak in detail about Torah study.
Where Is That Confounded Recession?
“Ah, excuse me. Oh, will ya excuse me. I’m just trying to find the recession. Has anybody seen the recession?” Ask that question in a roomful of forecasters, and you’ll hear plenty of reasons why the next recession is dead ahead: the inverted yield curve, the tariff war, weak PMIs, the global manufacturing downturn. Events might eventually prove those recession forecasts to be correct, although I would say not until mid-2020 at the earliest, and a recession at that time remains just a possibility.
U.S. Recession Watch: The 6-Cycle Forecast (Continued)
"If I can't picture it, I can't understand it." - Attributed to Albert Einstein "In order to properly understand the big picture, everyone should fear becoming mentally clouded and obsessed with one small section of the truth."- Xunzi, Confucian philosopher There's hardly a more hackneyed expression than "painting the big picture," so I avoided using it in the first article in this series, even though the series is partly about, well, painting the big picture.
U.S. Recession Watch: The 6-Cycle Forecast
It's usually a bad idea to stand too close to something - whether an object, a problem you'd like to solve or any number of other things - which could mean seeing all of the pixels but none of the patterns. That's why we populate albums, frames and holiday cards with bird's eye views and sweeping vistas. It's why every city that aspires to "destination" status advertises this or that Tower, Arch, Needle or Eye.
Testing The Fed's Narrative With The Fed's Data: QT Edition
“The fact that financial markets responded in very similar ways … lends credence to the view that these actions had the expected effects on markets and are thereby providing significant support to job creation and the economy.” - Ben Bernanke defends the idea that markets and the economy respond significantly to quantitative easing “...
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TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop And Remembering 1966
In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending - namely, spending that doesn’t require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power (NYSE:TSP) to describe spending that’s financed by external “injections” instead of prior savings.
You Might Like To Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall
“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” - Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet - we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers. We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders - banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving - as in the updated chart below.
The Latest News From The CBO Is Bullish For Bond Investors
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two supplemental reports in August—the first reveals budget scenarios it “did not have enough time” to include in June’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, and the second shows what needs to happen for policy makers to reach certain government debt targets.
A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides In Plain Sight
It’s been awhile since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs. In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past two decades when bond bears (read: most mainstream commentators) have possessed a more compelling Powerpoint pack.
Our Best Stock Market Indicator Is Flashing Yellow
At one time or another, you've surely been advised not to fight the Fed, maybe by the same guy who likes to remind you that the trend is your friend (until it isn't) and that pigs get slaughtered. But how should you use that advice during the third year of a tightening cycle that's currently adding 25 basis points to the Fed funds rate every three months? Is it time to cut risk or even go to cash?
The Fonzie-Ponzi Theory Of Government Debt
This post is excerpted from my book Economics for Independent Thinkers, although with some updating. It seems relevant after the CBO’s latest long-term budget outlook, which in its optimistic “baseline scenario” called for America’s net federal debt to double over the next 30 years, rising from 76% of GDP in 2017 to 152% in 2048. Before reaching this chapter or even picking up this book, I imagine many of you were already loosely divided into the two major camps of the public debt debate.
6 Things To Know About This Week's CBO Report
Here are six things you might like to know about the Congressional Budget Office’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which was released on Tuesday. If we add intragovernmental debt to our alternative scenario to project “gross” debt, it shows debt per taxpayer breaching $200K twice as quickly—in 2023—at which time the debt-to-GDP ratio would be 120%.
The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn In 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)
I realize it’s getting late to discuss the June 12–13 FOMC meeting, but I think the Fed’s biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference, I spent some time last week reviewing old speeches, transcripts and other materials produced by Fed officials.
A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers, Part 1
Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed that the recent flattening is similar to those that occurred at various stages of the last nine business-cycle expansions, but usually before the midpoints. In other words, history places today’s curve in an early- or mid-cycle position, not late-cycle as commonly believed.
A Business Cycle Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 2
Have you ever lacked for information about America’s various debt burdens? Twenty-odd years ago, if you paid any attention to debt, you might have relied on original source data to stay current. But the times they are-a-changing, aren’t they? In today’s high-tech, data-rich world, anyone who follows financial news should know roughly where we stand with our borrowings.
A Business Cycle Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 1
Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed that the recent flattening is similar to those that occurred at various stages of the last nine business-cycle expansions, but usually before the midpoints. In other words, history places today’s curve in an early- or mid-cycle position, not late-cycle as commonly believed.
A Contrarian Take On The Great Yield Curve Scare
Media coverage of most business-cycle indicators waxes and wanes with changes in the economy, but so far in 2018, the yield curve indicator is all wax. It seems like everyone has something to say about the yield curve slope, and many commentators are jumping from a flatter curve to a growing risk of recession.
An Inflation Indicator To Watch, Part 3
Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in 2002 with a few kind words about his peers, including the excerpt above. Speaking for central bankers, he took a large share of the credit for the low inflation of the 1980s and 1990s. Central bankers had gained a “heightened understanding” of inflation, he said, and he expected the future to bring even more inflation-taming success.
This Isn't Your Grandfather's (1960s) Inflation Scare
As soon as the GOP followed its long-promised tax cuts with damn-the-deficit spending increases (who cares about the kids, right?), you knew to be ready for the Lyndon B. Johnson reminders. And it’s worth remembering that LBJ pushed federal spending higher, pushed his central bank chairman against the wall (figuratively and, by several accounts, also literally) and eventually pushed inflation to post–Korean War highs.
An Inflation Indicator To Watch, Part 2
But does it really? In Part 1 of this series, I said I would challenge popular beliefs about inflation, while at the same time proposing an alternative theory. I also promised that the theory leads to an inflation indicator with an excellent prediction record, and I'll define the indicator in this article. Considering inflation determines bull and bear markets in both stocks and bonds, that's my big pitch.
An Inflation Indicator To Watch, Part 1
Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation? Ever heard anyone else question it? Unless you read obscure stuff written for the academic community, you’re probably not used to Friedman’s quote being challenged. And that’s despite a lousy forecasting record by economists who bought into his Monetarist methods. Consider the following: When it comes to explaining inflation, Monetarism hasn’t exactly nailed it.
Stock Risks To Watch: Choose Your Bear-Market Dashboard
When long ago a former employer sent me to London to join the other Americans, or mostly Americans, building out its U.K. office, my job was to create a process. In institutional asset management, process was the American way. For sales presentations and especially dealing with investment consultants, you needed process charts that showed information flowing this way and that and, ultimately, morphing through its travels on the page into repeatable investment decisions.
Q1 Stock Market Outlook: We're Gonna Need A Bigger Slide
If 2018 rings in a bear market, it could look something like the Kennedy Slide of 1962. That was my conclusion in “Riding the Slide,” published in early September, where I showed that the Kennedy Slide was unique among bear markets of the last eighty years. It was the only bear that wasn’t obviously provoked by rising inflation, tightening monetary policy, deteriorating credit markets or, less commonly, world war or depression.
Q1 Stock Market Outlook: We're Gonna Need a Bigger Slide
If 2018 rings in a bear market, it could look something like the Kennedy Slide of 1962. That was my conclusion in “Riding the Slide,” published in early September, where I showed that the Kennedy Slide was unique among bear markets of the last eighty years. It was the only bear that wasn’t obviously provoked by rising inflation, tightening monetary policy, deteriorating credit markets or, less commonly, world war or depression.
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here's A Strong Signal From The Economic Dashboard
We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually do—in both markets and the economy. But most forecasters expect the economy to expand through next year, believing that the Fed and the yield curve aren’t yet restrictive enough to trigger a recession.
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard
We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually do—in both markets and the economy. But most forecasters expect the economy to expand through next year, believing that the Fed and the yield curve aren’t yet restrictive enough to trigger a recession.
Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here's a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard
We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually do—in both markets and the economy. But most forecasters expect the economy to expand through next year, believing that the Fed and the yield curve aren’t yet restrictive enough to trigger a recession.
Bull, bear, or donkey?
(MENAFN - ValueWalk) By Daniel Nevins, CFA, , author of In September, we a theory of the Fed and suggested that the will soon worry mostly about financial imbalances without much concern for recession risks. We reached that conclusion by simply weighing the reputational pitfalls faced by the economists on the committee, but now we'll add more meat to our argument, using released last week.
Learning From The 1980s: The Power And Irony Of 'MDuh'
Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates. Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates—primarily M1 but occasionally M2, and policy makers also monitored M3 while experimenting with M1B and, later, MZM. But those were just the “official” figures.
Why QE Is Overrated And Misunderstood: What Investors Need To Know
“We don't understand fully how large-scale asset purchase programs work to ease financial market conditions.” —New York Fed President Bill Dudley, speaking as the Fed began its QE3 “taper” in 2014 Judging by conflicting opinions that we read and hear about the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) program, Bill Dudley is far from alone in being confused about the program’s effects. Pundits disagree about the effects of QE on inflation, growth, and financial markets.
How To Survive And Thrive In A 'Zlatan Ibrahimovic Market'
By Doha Stadium Plus Qatar (Zlatan Ibrahimovic — Doha, Qatar), via Wikimedia Commons REPORTER: Who will win the World Cup playoff? ZLATAN: Only God knows who will go through. REPORTER: It's hard to ask him. ZLATAN: You're talking to him. REPORTER: What did you get your wife for her birthday? ZLATAN: Nothing. She already has Zlatan. ZLATAN: I can’t help but laugh at how perfect I am.
Kevin Warsh May Be the Next Fed Head: Let's See What He Really Thinks
As reported earlier this morning by the Wall Street Journal, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin met with Kevin Warsh yesterday to discuss the potential vacancy at the Fed next February. Warsh already has central banking experience, having sat on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from February 2006 until March 2011. Two and a half years after he resigned from the Fed, he emerged as a vocal critic of FOMC policies, including those policies he helped craft.
Nordic skiing: Musgrave hopes to be real contender in Pyeongchang By R
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: FIS Nordic Ski World Championships - Men's Cross-Country 50 km Mass Start Free By Alan Baldwin LONDON (Reuters) - Andrew Musgrave likened himself to a 'tranquilised badger' at the 2014 Sochi Olympics but the Briton has alerted the big names of cross-country skiing to his potential ahead of the Pyeongchang Games next February.
Turkey raises oil threat after Iraqi Kurds back independence By Reuter
© Reuters. Kurds celebrate to show their support for the independence referendum in Erbil By Maher Chmaytelli and Ece Toksabay ERBIL/ISTANBUL, Iraq (Reuters) - Turkey threatened potentially crippling restrictions on oil trading with Iraqi Kurds on Thursday after they backed independence from Baghdad in a referendum that has alarmed Ankara as it faces a separatist insurgency from its own Kurdish minority.
A Dyson Car to Rival Tesla? By Investing.com
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Top 5 Takeaways from Trump’s Tax Plan By Investing.com
We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: Enrich the conversation Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Use standard writing style.
Leaving nothing to chance, China increases security, social control before Congress
© Reuters. Chinese police officers take part in a security oath-taking rally for the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party, in Nanjing By Christian Shepherd and Ben Blanchard BEIJING (Reuters) - China is tightening security for next month's twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress, cancelling police leave in Beijing, limiting tourism to Tibet, and clamping down on the spread of political rumors.
Leaving nothing to chance, China increases security, social control before Congress
© Reuters. People stand in front of a flower display featuring Chinese President Xi Jinping's "four comprehensives" ahead of the Communist Party congress in Beijing By Christian Shepherd and Ben Blanchard BEIJING (Reuters) - China is tightening security for next month's twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress, cancelling police leave in Beijing, limiting tourism to Tibet, and clamping down on the spread of political rumors.
Highlights of Wednesday's MLB games By Reuters
© Reuters. MLB: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (The Sports Xchange) - Highlights of Wednesday's Major League Baseball games: Cubs 5, Cardinals 1 One big inning put the Chicago Cubs back in the post-season. Chicago, scoring five runs in the top of the seventh inning, knocked off the St Louis Cardinals 5-1 on Wednesday to wrap up its second consecutive National League Central title.
Wealthy financiers could gain from Trump's proposed tax cut for small businesses
© Reuters. Trump arrives aboard Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland By Amanda Becker WASHINGTON (Reuters) - High-income Wall Street financiers could be unintended winners from a section of U.S. President Donald Trump's tax-cut plan that is meant to help mostly small, "mom-and-pop" businesses. Trump called on Wednesday for a new "pass-through" tax rate of 25 percent that could mean big savings for owners of sole proprietorships and partnerships who now pay 39.6 percent.
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