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Articles by David McNay
How do you like your OATs?
Indrani De, CFA, PRM Head of Global Investment Research David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research The spread between French OATs and German Bunds has gapped higher, driven by concerns over the French fiscal position; investors are contending with political uncertainty and a large maturity wall, that requires refinancing at higher rates. Currently, this appears more like an idiosyncratic issue than the start of a fresh Eurozone Debt Crisis.
Round the merry-go-round: A map of circular financing in AI
David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research Robin Marshall, MA, M.Phil Director, Global Investment Research Financing AI infrastructure is less ‘circular’ and more of a web; it involves self-reinforcing valuations, concentration risk and creates opacity. NVIDIA has partnered with some of the biggest names in finance to establish an AI infrastructure financing platform to raise over $500 billion of external capital. This may formalise financing structures that are already being utilised.
Gotta grow ’em all: Japan’s growth strategy
Belle Chang, MBA Senior Manager, Global Investment Research David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research PM Takaichi and her administration have been driving Japan’s Growth Strategy. For equity investors these span a wide number of sectors, touching around half of the FTSE Japan Index. Japan’s growth strategy has moved from broad policy direction to a concrete investment roadmap, with the cabinet having approved a JPY370 trillion (~$2.4 trillion package).
Mapping circular financing in AI: Does it Add Instability?
David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research Robin Marshall, MA, M.Phil Director, Global Investment Research Financing AI infrastructure is less ‘circular’ and more of a web; it involves self-reinforcing valuations, concentration risk and creates opacity. NVIDIA has partnered with some of the biggest names in finance to establish an AI infrastructure financing platform to raise over $500 billion of external capital. This may formalise financing structures that are already being utilised.
Made in Europe: Turning European demand into European production
Europe is entering a more interventionist phase of industrial policy as tariffs, state support and policies favouring domestic production play a larger role in the global economy. Made in Europe (MiE) is part of that response, with measures such as the Industrial Accelerator Act seeking to direct more of the EU’s roughly €2tn annual public-procurement market towards European production.
Time for an intervention: Part 2
Julian Whitaker Quantitative Index Developer, Index Research & Design David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research Last week we saw a significant spike in the Japanese yen following a joint Japan/US intervention in the currency market. It is reasonable to expect further near-term volatility in the spot rate. Historically, currency-hedged returns have performed better than unhedged returns during periods of heightened USD/JPY spot volatility.
Time for an intervention
FTSE Russell Insights David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research Julian Whitaker Quantitative Index Developer, Index Research & Design Japan and the US engaged in a co-ordinated intervention in the currency markets causing a 5-standard deviation [note1] move in Dollar-Yen.
What markets are telling us about the duration of the Middle East conflict
David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research Equity option skew and oil futures curves provide a useful pulse for the markets expectation of the speed of resolution of the conflict. This insight explains how we are viewing them. Russell 2000 skew was slow to price downside risk, and very quickly priced in de-escalation after President Trump’s Truth social post on March 23.
Sanae Takaichi: Can the rock star of Japanese politics drum to the beat of the markets?
David McNay, CFA Director, Global Investment Research Alex Nae, M.Sc Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research Prime Minister Takaichi leveraged her high approval ratings to steer her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a supermajority in the Lower House – the first single party supermajority in 40 years. A supermajority isn’t just a superlative – it provides the PM the ability to override the Upper House, reducing political friction.
Global equities in 2026: Same, same… but different
Key takeaways: The FTSE All World Index returned 23.1% in 2025. Outperforming the US by the widest margin in 16 years Broadening of the global equity rally – by industry and geography – was a key theme. Meanwhile the US became even more concentrated. The top 10 names in the FTSE USA are now nearly 40% and the top 2 stocks weigh more than the combined weight of the Energy, Utilities, Real Estate, Telecommunications and Basic Materials industries.
Much ado about hedging
The primary objective of currency hedging is mitigating FX risk, and it’s important to note that hedged returns are not the same as local-currency returns. Currency hedging alters the risk-return profile of an asset class; we show that a USD-denominated investor who hedged offshore currency exposure in the FTSE World Government Bond index (WGBI) achieved a higher return for a lower level of volatility over decade to end-September-2025.
DAVID MCNAY and PETER VAN DER ROSS: The case for a healthy weighting to offshore assets
After some relative stability at end-September, the rand is under renewed pressure. That, combined with local economic instability fuelled by SA’s energy constraints and many other factors, is prompting investors to reconsider their investments’ local versus offshore exposure. Where to for SA investors as 2023 draws to a close?
OPINION | History can show investors how best to use the new Regulation 28 limits
The significance of raising the Regulation 28 maximum limit of offshore allocation to 45% from 30% can’t be overstated. And how investors respond could be the most important determinant of their returns over the next decade, says David McNay. For more financial news, go to the News24 Business front page. The end of the year typically provides an opportunity to reflect on the past and consider what lies ahead. The same could be said of one’s investment portfolio.
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