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Articles by David Reifschneider
US monetary policy and the recent surge in inflation
Federal Reserve policy in the wake of the COVID pandemic has been widely criticized as responding too slowly to surging inflation and an overheated labor market, thereby exacerbating the inflation problem and impairing macroeconomic performance more generally. This paper challenges this view by exploring the likely effects of a markedly more restrictive counterfactual monetary policy starting in early 2021.
The Fed's big guns are welcome, but the United States needs more fiscal action
March 16, 2020 3:15 PM Image credit: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque The Federal Reserve’s move on March 15 to drop the federal funds rate another percentage point to essentially zero, along with other steps to support credit markets and the economy, represents a substantial and appropriate easing of monetary policy at a time of health crisis. The announcement at an unusual weekend conference call underscored the urgency of the situation.
What the Fed should do now to get ready for the next recession
March 4, 2020 5:30 AM Image credit: REUTERS/Yuri Gripas The Federal Reserve’s ability to fight future recessions is under serious threat. The macroeconomic environment has changed in a way that could handcuff the Fed the next time the economy weakens. The clearest symptom of that change is that even though the labor market is very strong by historical standards, the interest rate that the Fed controls is just below 1.25 percent. That’s a big problem.
Designing an effective US policy response to coronavirus
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) now seems highly likely to cause an economic slump, both in the United States and globally. Only a little more than 60 days after word of a mysterious and previously unknown illness first emerged from Wuhan, China, the Federal Reserve responded on March 3 by cutting its policy rate by an unusually large ½ percentage point. More unusual still, the Fed moved two weeks ahead of the next regularly scheduled meeting of its rate-setting committee.
Average Inflation Targeting Would Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with Recession and Chronic Low Inflation
The Federal Reserve faces two important monetary policy challenges: First, since the Great Recession it has struggled to move inflation convincingly up to the 2 percent target level. Second, during the next recession it will struggle to deliver enough support to the economy unless the recession is unusually mild. As a result, the search is on for alternative policy frameworks that might allow the Fed to achieve its monetary policy objectives more effectively.
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