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Articles by Declan Fallon
Russell 2000 Undercuts 200-Day MA Despite Today's Buying
Buyers step up after yesterday's losses, losses that registered as distribution. Buyers returned on good volume, and in some cases, exceeded the losses of yesterday. But the buying was not necessarily enough to reverse the damage of Wednesday's losses. The Russell 2000 (IWM) did not survive its third test of its 200-day MA in the space of a couple of weeks. Technicals are now net bearish with a new (strong) MACD 'sell' trigger. Traders need to be careful here.
S&P Squeeze On Distribution - Short Ready?
It has been a bit of a mixed bag for indices as bulls look to reestablish breakouts and/or defend support. However, shorts may be the one to benefit in the near term. The S&P is getting squeezed into the 'bull trap' left by the inverse hammer. It's a good swing trade play, but given today's higher volume distribution, I would look for a bearish break with a near-term target of the 50-day MA.
Russell 2000 Reverses Off 20-Day MA As S&P And Nasdaq Breakout
Markets are breaking two ways - Small Caps heading south while Tech and Large Caps head north, but even Small Caps have reason for optimism. The Russell 2000 (IWM) bounced off its 200-day MA, reaching its 20-day MA until today's reversal dragged it back with a bearish engulfing pattern. Despite the bearish candlestick, the MACD still managed a 'buy' trigger, and selling volume was light. I would be looking for a bullish test and buyers to step in.
Swing Low Bounces Struggle For Traction
Markets swing lows were undone by early enthusiasm failing to build on opening gaps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) had looked the most likely to shape a bounce worthy of note, but the early gap higher was the extent of the gains and by the close of business we had an indecisive 'black' candlestick style 'spinning top' - not a candle to get excited about. Buyers of the bounce will need to be ready for a move down into the gap, and maybe as far as a second test of the 200-day MA.
Bitcoin Makes Second Attempt At Rally Off Breakout Support
The last couple of days for Bitcoin (BTC.X) had pointed to indecision on a series of doji, but today's white candlestick above 82.5K breakout support suggests we may yet get another kick on higher. In a manner, it's a victim of its own success as market indices have headed in the other direction. On a positive note, 82.5K should be strong support.
Markets Mixed Bag As Bitcoin Breakout Holds
We have a bit of a mixed bag. Markets that were oversold and developing swing lows are now struggling to mount a bounce. Those in trading ranges are still in the upper bounds of those ranges and could still break out, but are likely to be influenced by their much weaker brethren. Bitcoin (BTC.X) is holding its breakout, but today's doji after yesterday's move lower doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence.
Russell 2000 Attempts Another Swing Low
The first attempt to rally off a bottom stalled out at its 20-day MA. We now have invalidated that low, so are looking for the next one. Today's dragonfly doji on higher volumem distribution is another such attempt. We have oversold momentum and bearish net technicals. It's only worth it if the index rallies from the open; a close into the spike low negates the reversal play - we really want to see a gap higher and a solid white candlestick. The equal-weighted S&P didn't fare so well.
Nasdaq Surge Delivers Breakout
The Nasdaq surged to new highs, triggering bullish buy signals and negating bearish cases for the S&P 500. While the Russell 2000 (IWM) lags, strength in semiconductors and Bitcoin suggests the broader market rally has resumed. So much for the questionable breakout in the Nasdaq or the potential short play in the S&P; both were swotted away with substantial gains in each index.
Bitcoin Surge As Russell 2000 Shapes A Swing Low
Bitcoin is again on the move, looking more bullish than my initial "bullish outlook". I had looked for a more pronounced 'bear trap' on a duck to the 50-day MA, but instead buyers stepped in and shorts were forced to cover buy. This is excellent right-hand-base development on the longer weekly chart, and it's hard not to see Bitcoin challenging $125K by 2028, if not sooner.
Bulls Were Unable To Build On Morning Optimism
After the Fed driven sell-off that delivered support breaks for some of the indices there was an attempt by bulls to stage a bounce, but traders weren't able to build on the sizable opening gaps, and some indices drifted lower by the close. The Russell 2000 (IWM) lost the most ground off the open. However, today's close was enough to regain support, leaving yesterday's action as a potential 'bear trap'. Technicals are net bearish oversold.
Russell 2000 And Bitcoin Break Support
The Russell 2000 ($IWM) and Bitcoin broke key support, signaling potential tests of their 200-day and 50-day moving averages. While selling volume remains high, a potential bear trap or spike low could soon offer a tactical buying opportunity. The Russell 2000 (IWM) delivered on its 'bull trap' as the reversal came all the way back to support before undercutting $288. Selling volume was high but not excessive as the index now looks on course to test its 200-day MA.
S&P And Nasdaq Hang On As Russell 2000 Comes Under Pressure
Interesting times for markets this week. I'll start with the Russell 2000 (IWM) as it finished the week with a bearish black candlestick just above trading range support. Candlestick like Friday's don't typically have a good ending, but if we some form of spike low down to $285 then I would look for a trade-worth low. Note how intermediate-term [39,1] stochastics are now oversold - another reason to pay attention to any reversal candlesticks that appear over the coming days.
Bitcoin Breaks Through 50-day MA
Not a whole lot to add from the weekend. After yesterday’s action, I had thought bears had regained control after previously mentioning how the index had overcome the prior bearish markers. pushed through the 50-day MA on lighter volume, but with the counter move against yesterday’s selling, it now opens up for a move to the 200-day MA. The pattern breakout in the continues to hold and remains favored to push higher. It’s a similar situation for the ; look for the breakout to continue higher.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Posts Gains to Maintain Consolidation
Both the and posted small gains after Monday to keep the consolidation intact and return both indices above their respective 50-day MAs. Buying volume was down for both indices. technicals remain net bearish, although momentum for the S&P 500 is bouncing off the midline - an area of support in a cyclical bull market. The () is holding breakout support as it trades near highs. Of the main indices, it’s best positioned to kick on to new all-time highs.
Russell 2000: Sellers Appear as Support Comes Under Pressure
It was going to happen at some point, but sellers have come out of the woodwork. Tech was hardest hit, but there is plenty of support for indices to work with. The () was one of the least impacted by the selling. It staged a mini-breakout, while Wednesday’s inverse hammer came on higher volume accumulation, it’s still in a position where it could go either way. The is defending the 20-day MA while the MACD holds to a ’sell’ trigger.
Markets Split as Semiconductor Index Accelerates and Bitcoin Stalls Original
continues to play dead as indices hold their ground. The 20-day MA of Bitcoin is resistance as today’s selling places it on course to test 60K (again), although I suspect the next test will fail, it’s too recent a test since the February low test bounce. Only the MACD is offering a weak ’buy’. The played true to its tweezer top as yesterday’s loss took the index back to its 20-day MA. There is a weak MACD ’sell’, but other technicals are bullish.
Tweezer Top in Equal Weight S&P - Double Top Semiconductors
Back from holiday, and indices flash another round of topping patterns following earlier patterns which were breached, so while one could go short, you don’t want to be holding if pattern highs are breached. While I missed the announcement, the real shocker was the multi-decade lows posted by the Survey - perhaps one of the few legitimate data points that can be trusted.
Bitcoin’s Weakness Goes Against the Grain
Indices are all doing what good indices should in a bull market, but has taken a sharp move down following the rejection at the 200-day MA (and subsequent break of the 50-day MA). As to which side of the coin wins out remains to be seen, but given cryptos relationship to the tech sector it’s hard to see how each could continue in their respective directions without at some point aligning.
Russell 2000 Clears Resistance as Nasdaq and S&P 500 Flash MACD Sell Triggers
The long weekend has been kind to markets. The finally joined lead indices with a breakout to new highs. The MACD is still on a ’sell’ trigger, but other technicals are bullish once more. The managed to post its breakout before the Memorial weekend, and added a little by yesterday’s close. We will want to see how 8.3K support holds on the next test, when - or if - it manages such a test.
Russell 2000: Buyers Defend Support on Higher Volume Accumulation
After a couple of weeks of selling, buyers decided to step in and reverse the near-term trend. Buying volume stepped up in confirmed accumulation. It was a good trade for those who took advantage, and it’s increasingly looking like new trading ranges will come out of this. The () had a support level to work with, but will likely find resistance at its 20-day MA. I had mentioned yesterday, and while it didn’t post the gains of other indices, it could have a big day today.
Market Selling Continues as Trading Ranges Establish
Markets continue their slowdown, but without the panic that many were expecting. Volume continues to slide with distribution the order of the day, but all indices have support levels to work with. The () is back at the April swing low, and just above the January swing high. This is a natural level to look for support that could offer a new trading range. It may take the approach of the 50-day MA to actually deliver the next rally, but there is time available before this happens.
Russell 2000: Sellers Appear as Options Expiration Clouds Volume
We had some decent selling across markets on higher volume, which would register as distribution on a normal day, but on options expiration, the true picture is a little cloudier. While this selling looks to be damaging, follow-through is needed if it’s to evolve into something bigger. The () edged back to former handle resistance, turned support, which is also where the 20-day MA can be found.
Bitcoin Pressures 200-Day Moving Average as Bulls Eye Further Gains
It’s natural for an undercut test of a 200-day MA to reverse on the test, but has been lingering at the moving average with a higher volume accumulation gain. If you took profits, no loss, but with the successful test of the 20-day MA, there may be a chance for new traders to jump in, and those with existing profits to roll them a little further. An index looking ready to break higher is the . The ’bull flag’ broke higher to a second test of the 8,300 in a matter of weeks, and a third test overall.
Russell 2000 Offers Steady Gains on Successful Backtest
Semiconductor stocks are hogging all the limelight with their Y2K-sized gains, but there is quiet strength in other indices with the foundation for more. The epitomizes this best after breaking from it narrow handle, it has managed a successful test of that handle - now support - with a combined test of its 20-day MA, topped off with a ’bullish hammer’. Technicals are net positive, although the MACD is about to trigger a weak ’sell’ trigger.
Equal Weight Nasdaq 100 Makes Gains as Other Indices Fade
It was a bit of a mixed day for indices as the bucked the trend of other indices and posted strong gains. Remaining indices suffered profit gains as sellers made a long-awaited appearance. It was odd to see the equally weighted Nasdaq 100 make such a clean move, tagging resistance in the process. Technicals - including relative performance - are firmly in the bullish camp, although it has yet to break to new 2026 highs, which, if it were to follow the , would mean big gains lie ahead for the index.
Russell 2000 Kicks on as Bitcoin Approaches 200-Day MA and Semis Break
It was a good Tuesday for the () as the indecision was negated by a respectable day of buying. Technicals are net bullish, but Tuesday’s volume was a little disappointing given the new all-time highs. Better was the , in that it registered an accumulation day with a new closing high. There could be a good day trade if Wednesday starts with a gap high, forcing shorts to cover (although there are unlikely to be many), but with no overhead resistance.
Russell 2000: Breakdown or ’Bear Trap’?
There is an interesting setup coming for the (). Wednesday’s action saw a move back into last week’s breakout gap that registered as a breakdown from its narrow handle, but retained the characteristics of the breakout by remaining above $270. In addition, we have a fast-approaching 20-day MA that could provide a cue for buyers to step in. Technicals remain net bullish, although the volume registered as distribution.
Consumer Sentiment: Weak Data Fails to Shake Market Rally
Published 04/28/2026, 01:00 AM Consumer Sentiment: Weak Data Fails to Shake Market Rally Nothing really to add from the weekend, but the one chart that is leaving me confused is the University of Survey. Consumer sentiment is in the toilet, really in the toilet - no surprise really given tariffs and general Administration f*ckisms - but the market has been pushing new highs rather than pivoting to new lows as has happened in the past.
Russell 2000 Shapes Bullish Handle
Indices continued to post gains but the () remains in the process of consolidation. The index is shaping a bullish handle, which offers a nice risk:reward play for those looking to play the break. Volume has been light across the pattern and well below that of the March capitulation, and below even that of the early-year advance. The is attempting a ’bull flag’, although it’s a little scrappy.
Equal Weighted S&P 500 Primed for Breakout
After the rejection at the resistance, it would have been easy for the to return to its moving averages. However, yesterday’s close delivered a bullish dragonfly doji, although momentum is overbought, which means it’s not a reversal candlestick. Given the proximity to resistance, it’s well-positioned to deliver a breakout following the weighted S&P. Technicals are net bullish, but there is still significant underperformance relative to the weighted average.
Equal Weighted S&P 500 Repelled by All-Time Resistance
It’s no coincidence that when sellers appeared for the they did so at resistance. The candlestick on Tuesday at all-time resistance was almost a bearish engulfing pattern with a spike high penetrating resistance. Given that the weighted S&P 500 had already broken to new all-time highs, the guidance here is for the equal-weighted S&P 500 to follow suit. BUT, if the weighted S&P 500 undercuts breakout support to leave a ’bull trap’, then much worse is likely to follow.
Russell 2000 Delivers Breakout as Equal Weight Indices Move to Test Resistance
Friday delivered a solid move higher across indices. The () had the best of the action with a breakout gap higher on confirmed accumulation. The only negative is the relative underperformance to peer indices. It’s just a question of what spanner Trump wants to throw at the indices; this week could be a long one. The had already registered a breakout, and Friday’s gains just added to that. At the same time, underperformance to the widened.
Nasdaq, S&P 500, Russell 2000: Indices Test All-Time High Resistance
It’s no coincidence to see indices start to slow their gains as resistance approaches. This was best represented by the () as the advanced got squeezed and the net gain on the day was minimal (Futures suggest a modest start, no big breakout yet). The breakout could happen before the week is out, but the gap moves we have seen will act as a draw to be filled, so don’t be surprised if we make a move back to Tuesday’s gap higher.
S&P 500 Holds Momentum as Dip Buying Returns to Focus
If you are a follower of JC Parets, you would be looking at a (very) bullish market outlook. I would be more cautious, but Thursday’s action has done much to negate some of the lingering bearishness from Wednesday. However, markets in a trading range should be considered neutral until all-time highs are breached, but long-term investors can accumulate. The () gapped higher on Wednesday, but closed with a bearish black candlestick.
Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones: Markets Price In War Escalation
There is one thing a chaotic Trump can’t control, and that’s the market, and the market is not pricing for good news any time soon. What good news there is, is that this decline is likely to lead to a good buying opportunity, similar to one last seen in April 2025 (as per the tables visible at the end of every post; if you just follow these signals, you would be catching most of the major lows). We are only at the start of such a decline, but it’s one I will be tracking.
S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Diverge as 200-Day Tests Shape Market Outlook
It’s hard to know what will come next as some markets work bounces off their 200-day MAs, while others struggle below it. The () successfully managed a test of its 200-day MA before rallying, while also leaving a ’bear trap’ at $245. Buyers who took advantage of $245 will be sitting pretty, although traders with a shorter time frame may wish to site this out. Wednesday’s test of the 20-day MA may instead offer a shorting opportunity, particularly if there is a gap down on Thursday’s open.
Stocks Slip Below Key Levels as TACO Uncertainty Keeps Pressure Intact
It was an interesting finish to Friday; some indices successfully tested their 20-day MAs - others did not. Pure technical traders could have taken a pop on Friday in the (), and ($SPXEW) at their 200-day MAs, knowing that other lead indices were undercutting their 200-day MAs, but it would be a big ask in the age of Trump (unless you were insider trading).
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000: Gap Down Selling Threatens Breakdown Across Indexes
I was looking for big red candlesticks across indexes, and yesterday, they delivered. Those who took the opportunity to go short can place a stop at yesterday’s close. The () experienced a higher-volume distribution day amid net bearish technicals. Yesterday’s loss closed on $245/6 support, but another day’s worth of selling will open up a test of the 200-day MA, and maybe a follow-through move down to $228. The is back down at 7,800, and it’s looking like further losses are on the cards.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000: Insipid Rallies After Retest of Range Support
Not Good. Indices remain under pressure after selling into support has only resulted in a weak bounce. It won’t take much to tip the , and Russell 2000 back into the red. The () is the canary in the coal mine. Tuesday was a second narrow doji after Monday’s. Volume was down, reflecting the lack of interest by buyers. Technicals are net negative, and last week’s gap down has finally closed. Don’t be surprised if we see a solid red candlestick before the week is out.
Nasdaq, S&P 500, Russell 2000: Trading Ranges Expand as Traders Seek Answers
Markets are reflecting the turmoil in the Middle East by being as indecisive as the Administration in its goals for the region. Headlines talk of significant declines, but that’s not what we are seeing. The has been particularly resilient despite the added pressure from a possible AI bubble. I have marked in declining resistance from January, which intersects with Tuesday’s close, and marks a possible short trade (stop on a close above Tuesday’s nasty-looking spike high).
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russel 2000: Ranges Hold Despite Losses, but Breakdown Coming
We are seeing a pick-up in trading volume with selling dominating, but we are not seeing a new downward trend, at least, not yet. News headlines paint a harsher picture of market action, but it hasn’t borne out yet. The () has drfited towards range support on a sequence of lower highs (but not yet lower lows). I expect this squeeze to play out with a solid red candlestick breakdown (and a good short trade) with a target of the 200-day MA.
Nasdaq, S&P 500, Russell 2000: Will Iran War Push the Needle for Key Indices?
Aside from a rise in prices, which were already trending higher prior to Israel’s and the "tag-along" U.S. strike on Iran, it remains to be seen what long-term impact this will have on markets. I’m always looking at how indices relate to their 200-day MAs, and since the latter part of 2025, this relationship is no longer overbought and not the risk I thought coming into 2026. However, we do have well-defined support levels to work with, and these should be tested early next week.
Semiconductor Index Rebounds Off Measured Move Target
I haven’t commented much on the , but the day before yesterday brought with it a small candlestick and a gap higher that tagged the measured move target. day before yesterday saw a 3%+ loss and a potential bearish evening star. The loss came with a MACD trigger and CCI ’sell’; the MACD ’sell’ faking off day before yesterday’s ’buy’ signal. Aggressive shorts could look for a test of the 50-day MA (a cover price), but in broader terms the trading range is the dominant pattern.
Mixed Technical Signals Keep Bitcoin and Equities in Holding Pattern
lost ground off its failed test of the 20-day MA. It’s now pushing for a retest of the bullish piercing pattern from the start of February. In addition, it’s very close to reaching the measured move target marked by the red-hashed line in the chart. Not a lot has changed since my last update. Range-bound markets are not the most exciting, despite what look like big daily shifts. Last week, in the () we had a couple of days with upper ’spikes’ that denote excessive supply.
S&P 500 Rebounds From Support but Momentum Remains Fragile
It was looking ugly for markets in early trading, but buyers stepped in to bid markets up by the close. The tagged support in what offered itself as a buying opportunity, although momentum is not fully oversold, which means a retest of the low (if markets bounce from here) is a strong possibility. The () successfully tested ’bull flag’ support from within its trading range. Technicals are mixed, but the index continues to outperform peers as of from November.
Bitcoin Emerges as Top Trade While Stock Markets Stay Range-Bound
Just as losses were softened by the range-bound aspects of lead markets, the same goes for Friday’s gains. The () managed a retest of what was a ’bull flag’ with technicals net bearish. The tagged range support on low volume, but closed the day on a neutral doji. Technicals remain mostly bearish but the index is enjoying a relative performance advantage over the . The finished with a ’spinning top’ candlestick that tagged the February low, but not enough to break it.
Sellers Push Range Bound Markets as Bitcoin Heads for Retest
Nasty set of red candlesticks painted the market, but most of these occurred within the context of trading ranges. It will be a question of balance as and make gains, as Technology suffers. has been on to a hiding, but the retest of the capitulation is coming on modest action and lower volume - the kind of trading you want to see for a tradeable bottom. The () took a 2% hit on higher volume distribution, with the 50-day MA coming into range as a support test.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Remain Range Bound
The and have stalled rallies that haven’t yet challenged the resistance of their respective trading ranges. There is a case where the has come up against resistance, which was once support, of the prior bullish ascending triangle. This level is also near the converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. It could be a shorting opportunity with a move to trading range support. The S&P 500 is in neutral territory despite Tuesday’s higher volume distribution.
Equal Weighted S&P 500 Surges as Russell 2000 Bounces Off Support
With the tech sell-off clouding action in the and , we have to look elsewhere for positivity. And there is no lack of alternatives. The kicked on from its ’bull flag’ breakout, posting a new high, and is well away from key support of 7,800 - meaning it has room for maneuver should tech weakness expand.
Russell 2000 Faces Range Risk as Selling Volume Picks Up
Aside from , we are not seeing too much technical damage, but we are seeing a pick up in the volume of selling. Moving averages will be key in the near term before we have to start looking at horizontal price support and swing lows. The () undercut its 20-day MA, but hasn’t yet challenged support defined by the December swing high. The MACD is on a ’sell’ trigger and +DI/DI and On-Balance-Volume will likely do the same on Monday if selling continues.
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