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Articles by Derek Scissors
Ways China’s Latest GDP Claim Is . . . Odd
The National Bureau of Statistics today announced China’s real GDP growth at 4.5 percent for the third quarter and 4.6 percent for the first three quarters, both year-over-year changes. We don’t have enough information to check the third-quarter figure in isolation, but we have nearly enough information to check the first three quarters as a whole. And that growth figure is unlikely to be accurate.
American oil Archives
Post AEIdeas Does a Reduction in the Supply of Oil Make the Economy Stronger? Commentary AEI Five Bipartisan Actions on Energy Security as Trump Returns to the White House Commentary The Honest Broker Is Joe Biden the “Drill, Baby, Drill” President?
Discussing the Economic Implications Following Trump’s Meeting with Xi: Scissors on CNBC’s “The Exchange”
Senior Fellow Derek Scissors discusses the economic implications following Trump’s meeting with Xi on CNBC’s “The Exchange.”
China’s Nonsense on Investing Overseas
China’s Ministry of Commerce this month released its 2025 bulletin on outbound investment, and, surprise, things look good. Outbound investment climbed 11 percent past $213 billion, a new record. You may not have noticed this in headlines, much less in your neighborhood. That’s because it borders on nonsense. China’s the world’s top trader and world’s top builder in foreign countries, but for some reason badly exaggerates its investment footprint.
India’s Growth Outperforms, Says India
One quarter of GDP growth doesn’t matter much. India this week announced 7.8 percent real GDP growth in its April–June quarter. If the true result is 5.8 percent, few will notice. The issue is longer term. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government took the result, which beat most expectations, as evidence of wise policy and its critics’ mistakes. As one critic, I could certainly be wrong. But India continuing to sing its own praises is not convincing.
China Trade: President Trump Is Trapping Himself
The Chinese government on Monday claimed the US has promised to cap tariffs at 20 percent. This is at least misleading and may be false. To the extent it’s accurate, it could help stabilize the Trump administration’s fluctuating trade policy. However, the cost would be prohibitively high: bizarrely favorable treatment of China, possible discrimination against better partners, a clear route to another loss in court, and a painful policy trap.
America’s view: China should keep opening up where its outgoing investments are concerned
Visibility into China’s international economic activity has declined. One cause is Chinese firms are becoming less transparent, with their websites more frequently inaccessible outside China and information about their operations deliberately limited, even at home. There’s also a research problem. Scraping the internet is a common and poor approach.
China’s Outbound Investment Shrugs Off the Iran War
The US-Iran war is an obvious obstacle for China’s global investment and construction. Nonetheless, authentic investment—disclosed by participating firms—had a solid performance January–June. Canada reemerged as a major recipient thanks to a large acquisition. Energy was the top industry, ahead of metals. Frozen projects in the Middle East prevented any country leading in construction; energy and transport saw the most activity.
How Long Has China’s Economy Been This Weak?
China surprised everyone Tuesday night by acknowledging GDP growth well below 5 percent. The official rate is 4.3 percent for the second quarter and 4.7 percent for the first half, to just over $10.1 trillion. More interesting than most such announcements, but not especially important. The important question is whether the true situation is somewhat worse than headline growth suggests, or much worse. Nominal GDP gained 5.3 percent for the first half, indicating a 0.6 percent deflator.
Numbers That Crunch President Trump
President Trump often says we’re the hottest country in the world, seeing trillions in investment. His number keeps rising while the Department of Commerce just restated $19.2 trillion. Most of this is from domestic sources, but the White House tally for foreign investment looks close to $6 trillion, led by the UAE, Qatar, Japan plus others as well as foreign firms. Data appeared this week showing the President’s off the mark, by trillions of dollars.
We’re Letting China Steal Our Future
You know what a powerful influence AI could be—on our economy, our military, our society. You probably don’t know there’s something more powerful: China’s drive to steal technology and our utter failure to respond. AI is said by many to be the most important technology for the 21st century. Yet China takes our AI capabilities and we do nothing, just as we’ve done nothing for decades with other technologies.
We’re Letting China Steal Our Future
You know what a powerful influence AI could be—on our economy, our military, our society. You probably don’t know there’s something more powerful: China’s drive to steal technology and our utter failure to respond. AI is said by many to be the most important technology for the 21st century. Yet China takes our AI capabilities and we do nothing, just as we’ve done nothing for decades with other technologies.
India’s Unconvincing Economic Facade
India portrays itself as a, or even the, global growth leader. The rest of the world should recognize that the reliability of India’s economic data is low. This is clear in external statistics—trade competitiveness is weak despite what is supposed to be an indispensable labor force. Foreign investors limit exposure upon discovering India’s shortfalls. The most important failing is internal. India’s workers will not be young forever, and the government hides the extent of unemployment.
What If Xi Was An Economic Reformer?
Since trying to improve American policy seems pointless at the moment, I’ve turned to make-believe. But useful make-believe. How much more prosperous would China be if Xi Jinping had been a modest pro-market reformer when taking over in late 2012, and stayed that way? A good answer is a book; a merely suggestive answer is that Xi wouldn’t have had to do much to get a bigger, richer, more appealing China with global influence comparable to now.
Recession with Chinese Characteristics
The Trump-Xi summit was interpreted by some, including Xi, to represent America’s decline and China’s rise. While President Trump’s behavior often suggests decline, one way or another, China’s rise should be questioned. Due to policy choices and demography, China’s long-term economic future is grim. Perhaps more surprising: in the short term, China’s purely domestic economy may have been shrinking for at least two years. “Domestic,” of course, has a giant qualifier.
Discussing what the Trump-Xi summit says about Trump’s priorities: Scissors on CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’
Senior Fellow Derek Scissors discusses what the Trump-Xi summit says about Trump’s priorities on CNBC’s ‘The Exchange.’
The Poison(ing) of Purchasing Power Parity
I had a choice of yelling at clouds or writing this. They’d probably have the same impact, yet here we are. A unit of currency in one place should have the same purchasing power in another—this is very roughly the idea of purchasing power parity (PPP). It’s a valuable insight but, due to the embrace of convenience over accuracy, PPP is so broadly and routinely abused that it’s done more harm than good. PPP is normally applied internationally but a basic implication applies anywhere.
The US Takes the Easy Road on China
The Wall Street Journal this month caught up with President Trump’s softness on China, only six years late. The President’s long-standing chase for China deals has pushed the US to avoid hard choices, only to get burned later. The Trump administration hiked tariffs right away, then caved because they didn’t even see vulnerability on rare-earth magnets. There are other glaring blind spots now, starting with land versus pharma.
Inequality, Not China, Could Take Down the Dollar
Dollar dominance can last for many more decades. The duration, like all economic outcomes, isn’t predetermined by trends or destiny but by actions, taken by the US especially. Actions by others, including China, have to this point strengthened the dollar’s hold, while the US has weakened the dollar’s position. American wealth inequality is a rising threat.
Trillions in Foreign Investment? No Boom Yet
Most information regarding the economy in 2025 has now been published, including . It’s reasonable to say that one year is too soon to judge. But politics isn’t fair. And judging from the first year of its international economic policies, the Trump administration has undermined its own strategy. Start with good-ish news. At market value, 2025 inward investment outperformed 2024.
Shale extraction Archives
Post AEIdeas It’s starting to sink in that China’s economic strategy, not performance, is a challenge to the US. The strategy—make the world more dependent on China and China less dependent on the world—has made advances. BY Derek Scissors ON 23 Mar 26
A Decade of US-China Fundamentals
It’s starting to sink in that China’s economic strategy, not performance, is a challenge to the US. The strategy—make the world more dependent on China and China less dependent on the world—has made advances. The implications include rising Chinese influence in pharmaceuticals perhaps jeopardizing our willingness to defend Taiwan. Chinese economic performance, though, has posed less and less of a challenge over the past decade.
What the Donroe Doctrine Could Mean for China’s Economic Statecraft
In the first few months of 2026, the Trump administration has embarked on military interventions in Iran and Venezuela and threatened possible annexation of Greenland. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s February trip to Beijing followed on the heels of the first state visit to China by a British leader in eight years.
When the world's at stake, go beyond the headlines.
In the first few months of 2026, the Trump administration has embarked on military interventions in Iran and Venezuela and threatened possible annexation of Greenland. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s February trip to Beijing followed on the heels of the first state visit to China by a British leader in eight years.
Various Estimates of Private and National Wealth, Including My Own, Show the American Lead Over China Expanding from 2015
China is already competitive in technology while unlikely to approach the United States in personal income in any reader’s lifetime. Another obvious comparison is raw size. Here, purchasing power parity seems pivotal, since unadjusted GDP easily favors America while adjusted GDP at least appears to favor the People’s Republic of China. But PPP implementation can be quite imprecise, even invalid.
Ho Hum, Another Year of US Energy Dominance
There are plenty of conspiracy theories around global energy production, and there probably should be more. There should be more because the 2020’s look like a shockingly successful American energy conspiracy. Last year saw yet more US oil and gas production and export records and, possibly surprising to many Americans, yet more US global leadership in these areas. In 2025, the US produced more crude oil than any nation in history, for the eighth year in a row.
When Does China Stop Growing (Entirely)?
The Chinese economy has been generally weaker than acknowledged in the 2020s. The most frequently discussed solutions, such as stimulating consumption, cannot generate a sizable, sustained impact for more than a year or so. Reinflating the property bubble would do so. It cannot be done immediately or easily but could for a multiyear period bring clearly faster economic growth without wrenching dislocation or automatically adding to the debt burden.
How Soft on China Can Trump Get?
Let’s be clear: The Biden administration was weak on China. So it’s not like a high standard was set. But, in the run-up to President Trump’s trip to Beijing in a month, it’s getting hard to keep track of how many American policy failures there have been. Sticking just to economics and technology: The agreement struck at the last meeting between Trump and General Secretary Xi Jinping, in late October, essentially returned the situation to where it was before Trump took office.
Some Clarifications Regarding the New Trade Situation
Last Thursday, 2025 trade data were published. On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of emergency authority for many tariffs. The Court left other matters open, for example rebates. And President Trump showed quickly that consistency is still unwanted, announcing a 10 percent global tariff then raising it to 15 percent a day later. This year will again be tumultuous, but some misperceptions can be dispelled.
2025 Trade and Investment Didn’t Yield Manufacturing Jobs
Recently released data covering the whole of 2025 contain good news. The trend for the trade deficit over the course of the year and one measure of foreign investment into the US both offer numbers President Trump will try to highlight. While the extent of the good news can certainly be debated, that isn’t the President’s problem. Instead, the more optimistic his spin, the more glaring is the poor payoff: manufacturing employment still fell. Trade wins the headlines.
Steady, Not Soaring, Chinese Investment in 2025
Article For the third year in a row, Chinese investment in the US set another record with $17 billion. As the leading recipient of Chinese investment, the US could see $20 billion of investment in 2015, but future investment may be determined by a US-China bilateral investment treaty. BY Derek Scissors ON 12 Jan 15 Article Trade with China is getting plenty of attention on the campaign trail this year but is becoming less important.
Chinese overseas investment Archives
Post AEIdeas Commerce and Treasury Make China Legislation Harder Post AEIdeas Making ‘the China Bill’ Worthwhile Post AEIdeas Evergrande, and More Important Things Post AEIdeas A Bank Shot for Saudi Arabia in the China-Iran Deal Post AEIdeas The China-Iran Partnership Is All Bark and No Bite Post AEIdeas We Should Worry About Chinese Venture Capital Funding
economic stability Archives
Post AEIdeas Judging by our gaping budget deficit and by movements in a number of key markets, it would appear that the United States has entered the stage of going bankrupt gradually. BY Desmond Lachman ON 28 Jan 26 Post AEIdeas What replaces existing tariffs? Probably a less destructive but mostly random patchwork. There’s a much better option. Reshoring tariffs aren’t based on historical grievance.
Steady, Not Soaring, Chinese Investment in 2025
China’s authentic global investment was steady in 2025, recovering from spring weakness stemming from uncertainty created by the initial US tariffs. The top investment recipient was Brazil; the top sector was transport, barely over metals. Saudi Arabia saw the most construction activity, and energy was again the leading industry for construction. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, annual investment is flicrting with a historical record.
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Archives
Post AEIdeas Balancing Security, Trade, and Technology in Asia Post AEIdeas Will Far-Left Resistance Thwart Biden’s Indo-Pacific Digital Trade Agenda? Post AEIdeas A US-Led Indo-Pacific Digital Trade Deal?
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Archives
Post AEIdeas Congress, Reassert Your Constitutional Authority over Trade, Part I Post AEIdeas A US-Led Indo-Pacific Digital Trade Deal? Part I Post AEIdeas Mexico Set to Squander Gains of USMCA Post AEIdeas Want to Secure North American Supply Chains After the Pandemic? Encourage Mexico’s Recovery Package Post AEIdeas 30 Days Left for USMCA? Post AEIdeas Elizabeth Warren’s Trade Populism Is Quite Trumpy, and That’s Bad Podcast WTH Is Going on with the China Trade War? Sen.
Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Archives
Podcast Lawfare Daily: Ambassador Robert Lighthizer on Trade Policy Post AEIdeas Congress, Reassert Your Constitutional Authority over Trade, Part I Post AEIdeas Taiwan Pork Referendum Post AEIdeas Time Is of the Essence for Starting US-Taiwan Trade Talks Post AEIdeas Start Trade Talks with Taiwan, Now Post AEIdeas Taiwan’s Welcome Step Towards a Free Trade Agreement Post AEIdeas Mexico Set to Squander Gains of USMCA Post AEIdeas Tech Policy Challenges in the US-UK Free Trade Agreement Post...
A Rich China Recedes Into the Distance
China on Monday announced that it exactly hit the 2025 real GDP growth target of five percent. Even if you believe it, and you shouldn’t, the rest of what was announced is still disturbing for the country’s macroeconomic trajectory. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put GDP at $19.8 trillion, on four percent nominal growth. The GDP deflator was negative, producer prices fell again, and consumer prices were flat. Real GDP slowed to a 4.5 percent rise in the fourth quarter, officially.
Annual Wealth Estimates for China
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Annual Wealth Estimates for China
Though widely used, GDP has drawbacks as an indicator of an economy’s performance. China’s GDP, in particular, is obviously manipulated when the Communist Party deems it necessary. National wealth data for China would provide valuable information. Publicly available wealth data for China have serious limitations, in particular because they are modeled rather than data-generated.
Tag Archive: Mao Zedong
Op-Ed ‘Eastward, Westward’ Review: A Bridge to China Post China Returns to Economic Maoism? Op-Ed ‘At the Edge of Empire’ Review: Leaving Mao’s China Article Espionage with Chinese Characteristics Article The Crushing of Tibet Op-Ed Why Do Journalists and Intellectuals Whitewash Dictators? Post AEIdeas The China That Might Have Been Article Are Russia and China Really Forming an Alliance?
America first? Not when Trump is dealing with China.
In the roughly 10 months since his return to the White House, President Donald Trump has made many threats against perceived adversaries. He has even followed through on some of them — for example, against Iran. The president has been remarkably generous, though, toward the United States’ most prominent adversary: China. Since April, Trump has repeatedly given ground to the People’s Republic. He did it again last week by agreeing to allow export of the advanced H200 chip to Chinese customers.
Trump vs. China is taking a turn
Trump vs. China is taking a turn (washingtonpost.com) Trump vs. China is taking a turn By Derek Scissors; Zack Cooper 2025121612300500 In the roughly 10 months since his return to the White House, President Donald Trump has made many threats against perceived adversaries. He has even followed through on some of them — for example, against Iran. The president has been remarkably generous, though, toward the United States' most prominent adversary: China.
Tag Archive: East Asia
Op-Ed Taiwan Has Reached Its Tipping Point Testimony Strategic Opportunities and Risks in the East Asia and Pacific Region Multimedia Chinese Investments in the US—Handout Article Why I’m Not Giving up on a New Roaring ‘20s Article East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse Post The Biden Administration’s Crippling Divide over Vital Digital Trade Rules Post Balancing Security, Trade, and Technology in Asia Op-Ed Taiwan Needs Business Help to Harden Its Economy Against China Op-Ed China’s...
Tag Archive: Indian politics | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
Op-Ed Indian Leftists Have Zohran Mamdani Envy Op-Ed Manmohan Singh’s Mixed Economic Legacy Op-Ed Dommaraju Gukesh and India’s Chess Comeback Press Discussing Modi’s policies and hiring practices in India: Dhume on the John Batchelor Show Press Discussing Modi’s Political Future: Dhume on “The John Batchelor Show” Multimedia Lessons of the Very Surprising Results from the World’s Biggest Election Press Discussing Modi’s future and India’s elections: Dhume on NPR’s 1A Press Discussing India’s...
foreign investment Archives
Post Rejecting CCP Influence Post US Investment in China: Treasury Fails, Deliberately Article Is America Riskier Than We Think? Post Is India the New China? Op-Ed The “New Right” Looks Pretty Small Post Less American Money in China, for Now Post The Most Important Number for China Policy Post Investment Deglobalization: How Far Will It Go? Post We Hear a Lot About US Jobs Being Outsourced Overseas (‘stolen’). But What About the 8M Insourced Jobs We ‘stole’ from Overseas in 2019?
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