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Articles by Doug Eberhardt
Gold: Why the Debt Spiral Makes the Yellow Metal Impossible to Dismiss Original
We’ve had a long consolidation in metals now with and running up against resistance and the hovering in the mid-90s range. So what’s next? When you get a prolonged consolidation as we have had the last month, and I’m not really finding anything worth writing about, but there will be a break one way or the other coming here soon. Because I don’t mince words on what I write, I can say that we should look to the dollar for direction on gold and silver.
Why Hasn’t the US Dollar Crashed?
For almost 20 years we have seen many books and articles come out about a crash is inevitable. But why hasn’t the dollar crashed? And how is it that is rising in price despite the dollar not crashing? Presently the dollar is sitting at 106.62. It tried to push below 100 in September of last year but presently is up 47.61% off its 2008 low of 72.23. Hardly a crash in the dollar.
Silver: V-Shaped Recovery Up Next?
We got a pullback in silver that I thought might be coming in my last post. I wrote Aug 20, 2024 the following: If we do get a pullback in the price of gold and silver, it will be short lived. The Federal Reserve can’t win the battle on inflation unless they raise interest rates so look for an initial move down in rates over the next few Fed meetings and then it’s time for them to play catch up, especially if we get a September/October crash or post election crash in the stock markets.
Stocks or Silver - Which Is the Better Buy Today?
Many investors try and say is a bad investment because the stock market has outperformed silver depending of course on your starting date. But this comparison of the two is a false pretense as silver is money and the stock market is investing in companies that try to earn a profit each year. But let’s analyze this a bit further to see if today, the stock market or silver is a better buy over the next few years.
Gold: Pullback to $2010, $1985 Would Be a Great Buying Opportunity Original
The key “thrill of victory and agony of very temporary defeat” weekly chart. Broadening patterns indicate a loss of control in markets. The wild Sunday night and Monday gold price action is “textbook” for the huge broadening pattern in play. While Stochastics now has a crossover sell signal, RSI does not. The most likely scenario now is a pause for a week or two, and then another more significant rally to above the immense $2080 “line in the sand”. Tactics?
Gold Price at New Highs? Sellers Say No
The huge rally in and the monstrous decline that followed provided a sign of epic proportions. Powerful Bearish Combination Gold price’s huge-volume reversal is the last thing that anyone even remotely interested in the precious metals market should ignore. Gold price was just soaring to new highs like there was no tomorrow, and then it happened. “NO” – was the sellers’ response, said with a voice that doesn’t accept any comebacks.
Gold: Exhaustion Likely to Continue Amid Recessionary Fears Original
By Satendra SinghCommoditiesDec 05, 2023 06:52AM ET Despite a rollover-gap-up opening on the first trading session of this week, Gold futures could remain in the grip of the big bears, wait above the level of $2089 as the macro economic data likely to strengthen their grip for a long.
Commodities Outlook 2024: Cautious Optimism
Executive Summary 2023 was meant to be a year of strength for the commodities complex. Commodities were the best-performing asset class in 2021 and 2022, and coming into this year, it was a potential contender to be the top performer again, particularly with fears around gas supply over the 2022/23 European winter, and heightened geopolitical tensions. However, this has not been the case, with the complex down on the year.
Gold Today Vs. Silver in 2021 Suggests Metals Can Resume Lower Original
By Gregor HorvatCommoditiesDec 05, 2023 02:04AM ET has been trading lower for the last few weeks as bets for potential rate cuts in 2024 are increasing, but FED’s Powell on Friday hinted that it may be too soon to look for that direction of lower rates. But they surely can cut if inflation continues down in months ahead as stated by some other Fed members. So economic data will be important in weeks and months ahead.
Gold collapses towards 1,800, stuck in oversold conditions | Investing.com
By XM Group (Trading Point )CommoditiesOct 05, 2023 04:36AM ET Gold posts eighth straight daily loss, touching its lowest levels since March Decline shows no signs of easing, widening Bollinger bands point to high volatility Oscillators deep in oversold zone for quite some time, bulls remain on the sidelines Gold has been in a steep downtrend after violating both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
Natural Gas: Could $3 Hold With Mid-Fall Cold?
By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan)CommoditiesOct 05, 2023 04:31AM ET After two failed attempts in a span of 5 months, gas futures are scaling $3 again Weather, demand and production may be supportive this time Even gas charts suggest support for $3, with some caveats bulls are once again on the market’s slipperiest slope for this year — $3 pricing — with weather, demand and production all seemingly aligned for them to reach the top.
Gold Leads Real Interest Rates at Turning Points
By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMTCommoditiesOct 05, 2023 02:37AM ET leads real interest rates at important turning points. On the bullish side, gold positively diverged from rising or strong real rates before the 2005 breakout and 2018 to 2020 cyclical advance. On the bearish side, the yellow metal peaked in 2011 and summer 2020 before real interest rates bottomed. Gold, though starting to crack, is only 12% off its all-time high despite a +3.66% increase in the real .
The Dollar Crash Is An Illusion
We have all heard the dollar will crash from so many over the years, that we think it's the boy who cried wolf and most of us just ignore. This Is the Illusion That Most Don't Understand The reality is that if the dollar crashed, by definition, that would mean that primarily the euro, yen, and pound would skyrocket. Why? Because of what the dollar is, or should I say, what the Dollar Index is because that is what makes up the dollar.
The Case For China And Other Emerging Markets' Continued Decline
While many are concentrating on U.S. markets, they may be ignoring what is bubbling underneath the surface from a global perspective. I want to concentrate on some leveraged ETFs including EDC, EDZ, YINN and YANG and their exposure to China. Obviously, the leveraged ETFs YINN and YANG offer the most exposure to China as they track the FXI, an index of the 50 largest and most liquid Chinese stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. What we have seen in these ETFs is some extreme volatility.
Last Chance To Buy Gold Cheap Is Not Now
I have been following gold for a long time. Back in 1980, there was a gentleman who lived in my parents' building where I was still a student in college and I noticed he owned not one, but two Rolls Royces. I asked around and found out that he was a gold dealer. From 1970 to 1980, he made it big in gold. There are stories back then about how gold dealers would ride around in limousines during the heyday of gold, and that once 1980 hit, the bottom dropped out and the gold dealers disappeared.
The National Debt Math Doesn't Add Up
When it comes to the national debt, it amazes me how the debt is such an important Presidential campaign issue to criticize the past President while running for office, but once the incumbent takes the reins, Congress and special interest groups take over and get to work spending every dime and more through the process known as legislation that the President rubber stamps their approval.
Gold: One More Dip After This Run-Up, Then It's GO-LD Time
Many of you who have followed the gold trade know that it is a forgotten asset for the most part. As a gold dealer, it's not just me but my suppliers who are feeling like the Maytag Repairman waiting for the phone to ring. In January, I pointed out The Trump Effect On Gold, and how since he was elected President, U.S. Mint sales of gold and silver plummeted.
Is Gold A Barbarous Relic?
Many claim that John Maynard Keynes said that gold is a barbarous relic. In reality, it was the gold standard he was referencing in his 1924 book on monetary reform. The way gold has been acting of late, many might consider it to be a barbarous relic. But let's take a look at some history of gold as money or as the "standard" as that is all Keynes knew gold as at the time he made those comments.
$50,000 Gold? Has Doug Lost His Mind? (Doug Eberhardt)
Doug Eberhardt recently wrote an article referencing a prediction that gold (GLD) would reach $50,000. I highly respect Doug's views on gold and was eager to follow-up on his article. He was kind enough to join me for further discussion. For those who prefer to read, my full interview notes are copied below.
How the Spurs put together the best offensive half in NBA Finals history
Over the course of a seven-game series, we get an excellent opportunity to see both teams make a series of both large and small between-game adjustments. This is the constant chess match between coaching staffs, recognizing what your opponent is doing well as they try to position their team on the way to calling "checkmate." Most fans think that as the coaches pore over the previous game's video tape evidence, there is a eureka moment when the coaches discover their opponents' glaring weakness.
$50,000 Gold And John Exter's Pyramid - Podcast
According to Wikipedia, John Exter was an American economist, member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System, and founder of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. He is also known for creating Exter's Pyramid (see graphic below).
Are The Fed Interest Rate Moves The Cause Of Boom And Bust Cycles?
What happens when the Fed can't lower rates any longer? Their only alternative is to go negative. The Fed didn't want to do that so in 2013 they started talking up raising rates. At the same time, I was calling their bluff. They kept calling for higher rates and they never came. Then finally, in December of 2015, they raised rates by .25 basis points. But it was still another year before they raised rates by another .25 basis points in December or 2016, despite threats to do sooner.
Will JNUG Or NUGT Return 100% During The Next Gold Run?
The next gold leg up will give us a good indication of just how profitable leveraged trading can be when you are on the right side of the trend. But let's take care of the negative commentators that will post to this article first. You know, the one's that always make a statement that if you buy leveraged ETFs you will lose money. They typically come to these articles and make such statements after reading the title without reading the article. I have seen it several times.
The Trump Effect On Gold And Guns
When it comes to analyzing who the buyers of gold are, you need look no further than who is advertising. It's quite obvious if you watch Fox Television or listen to the radio shows of right wing personalities. The day President Donald Trump got elected, the buyers of gold dried up. 2017 was one of the worst years for sales of gold, not just for me, but for my suppliers who are the largest in the nation and also for the U.S. Mint as the sale of American Gold Eagles plummeted.
12 Keys To Success In Trading Leveraged ETFs
When it comes to trading leveraged ETFs, you have seen me write many articles that harp on the trading rules that one must set up for themselves, before they buy any leveraged ETF. But there comes a time when you will be challenged with your own rules and when the trade goes against you, the battle with your ego takes over. Guess who usually wins? The market of course. The first thing I want to address in this article is what to do when you get stuck in a trade.
Is The Call By Some For Gold To Fall To $700 Realistic?
Harry Dent is out again with his predictions of gold moving lower, this time to $700 in 2018. In his most recent presentation, however, he verbally said that gold will fall to $400 and his slide show showed a graphic depicting a price of $250. His graphic throughout the entire presentation, shown below, shows him calling for $700, but most new viewers of his latest predictions should know he has been negative on gold for quite some time.
Trading Leveraged ETFs Like JNUG For Profit
Most everyone agrees, trading isn't easy.
You Can't Hack Gold!
Long time Dow Theory Newsletter writer Richard Russell ingrained in his readers over the years the 3 phases of a gold market. Investors will want to know what phase are we in today with gold. Here is how Richard Russell described the 3 phases related for gold and you can substitute the stock market or any cryptocurrency like Bitcoin or Ethereum into the description in place of gold to get an idea of where we are.
Is Gold Set To Lift Off Post Fed And Is The Fed Preparing For A Recession?
The Fed is set to raise rates on Wednesday and most everyone agrees that they will raise rates by .25 basis points. Some go as far as saying the Fed may raise rates by .50 points. Why not? Everyone seems to believe in the Fed and what they do and ignore things like valuations these days.
Make Trading Fun Again
Every time I write an article on trading leveraged ETFs, there's always someone who tries to twist what my goals are and make it about themselves and their past experience of failure in trading. Yet if you follow the comment section of my Seeking Alpha articles, you'll see that we consistently make money. And yes, we have fun doing it. We are there to help each other profit. What hasn't worked for some in the past can be turned around. It's the glass half empty or half full dilemma.
Profiting From Both Sides Of Leveraged ETFs
In my last article on Seeking Alpha, Don't Fear Leveraged ETFs, Profit From Them, I explained how you can trade leveraged ETFs with a trend and profit and why holding the triple leveraged products longer term can lead to not just big losses but actual decay. However, there are times where the decay is meaningless as you are profiting more than you can with any other exchange listed stock.
Strange Moves In Gold, Federal Reserve Policy, And Fundamentals
Authored by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, Counterintuitive Moves Something odd happened late in the day in Wednesday’s trading session, which prompted a number of people to mail in comments or ask a question or two. Since we have discussed this issue previously, we decided this was a good opportunity to briefly elaborate on the topic again in these pages.
Don't Fear Leveraged ETFs, Profit From Them
An article came out last August from US News & World Report called "Why Leveraged ETFs Are Horrible Investments." In this article the author described some of the cons of investing in leveraged ETFs, primarily that they don't track the underlying asset well, are more expensive than traditional index-based ETFs with high expense ratios, and have indirect trading costs as they rebalance their portfolios. Why do leveraged ETFs get such a bad rap?
Violence, Fighting Breaks Out Between Trump Supporters, Protesters In Berkeley
In a day when Trump supporters organized peaceful rallies across the nation in support of the president, violence broke out Saturday in the liberal, if not quite tolerant, west coast capital of Berkeley, when Trump fans were reportedly provoked by counter-protesters.
Gold, The Fed And Where's The Beef?
The question on everyone's mind now is, are we about to break out higher with the price of gold? We'll start with the Fed with my analysis because interest rates and the stock market have been driven the last 2 years in particular by what the Fed does and this in turn has affected the dollar and gold. In the old days the markets and rates were driven by the size of Alan Greenspan's suitcase. Then it was driven by QE on or QE off during Bernanke's tenure.
Gold: Everyone's An Expert
I try not to use every reason in the book to buy gold like those who call for a dollar crash every year or claiming the inclusion of China into the SDRs will be the death of the dollar. My 31-year career has been about enlightening myself, and with my own hard work, believe I have a good grasp on the economy and markets, and with this expertise, I am simply helping others, which is why I write books. Learning how to profit doesn't come without taking a few punches.
Triple Top In Dollar Paves Way For A Gold Bounce
My last article on gold for Seeking Alpha, Gold Miners Decline Came As Called - Will Gold Continue To Decline After Breaking $1,300? I said I leaned long the dollar and we have since seen the dollar move from 96.30 to over 100. During this time gold has fallen to just over $1,200, a seemingly support area to where gold could bounce from. Where are we today? $1,214 as I type. You can see by the chart above on the dollar that we are at a triple top with the dollar hitting 100.23 on Monday.
ETF Trading Research 11/13/2016 For The Week Ahead
(NYSEARCA:JDST) 33.31 was the buy. Took half off at 36.00 for a 8.07% gain. It was a fast move so like locking in some of that profit on fast moves. Took 1/4 more off at 37.66 for a 13.06% gain. A trailing stop may have had you out the last 1/4 and that's fine but the official call was to swing it, but deiced do to ahead and sell before the big decline. Took the final 1/4 off at 41.81 for a 21.52% gain. It fell to 36.07 so was good timing on the sell.
Gold Miners Decline Came As Called - Will Gold Continue To Decline After Breaking $1,300?
Now that gold has broken below the $1,300 level ($1,276.80 as I type with silver $18.05), precious metals investors are wondering whether the bottom will fall out or should they go "all in" and buy as much gold and silver as they can because some say the dollar is going to crash.
The Fear Mongering Crowd - Dollar Death On September 30th Edition - SDRs
You've been reading about a dollar crash for years from many of the fearmonger peddler's of gold, newsletters, or anything else they sell to those who succumb to the influence of those who latch onto certain philosophies that will cause Armageddon to occur in the markets and why you need to be in gold. What you'll hear from me is an unbiased opinion to the contrary, and it comes from someone who sells gold for a living.
Leveraged ETFs Can Be An Illusion Of Wealth If Not Following Rules
In order to keep your wealth from being an illusion, you must possess the ability to adjust your portfolio as the economic and investment climates change. Buy-and- hold strategies can work with some assets, but should not be the way forward for all your holdings. Applying the common sense of the book Illusions of Wealth can grant you control of your future and your wealth. First, it is important to have a foundational understanding of our monetary, economic, banking, and Federal Reserve systems.
Gold Miners Decline Coming And Caution On Buying Silver Coins
In my last article written April 17th on Seeking Alpha, Enjoy The Gold Bull While You Can, I explained I was bullish on silver over $16 and put up a chart that showed when gold was $1,233 that resistance was in the $1,300 to $1,400 range. Gold hit a closing high of $1,366.25 after moving above $1,370 intraday on July 6th. I also explained that if the dollar, which at the time was 94.68, fell below 94 it would be bullish for gold. It hit a low of 91.91 on May 3rd but has since bounced higher.
Enjoy The Gold Bull While You Can
I know there will be some who disagree, but the current gold bull run is nothing more than a rebound in commodities overall as a weaker dollar has taken center stage. Enjoy it while you can. Despite Recent Bounces Commodities Are Still in a Downward Trend The following charts show the short term 3 month picture of various commodities (gold, silver, oil, natural gas, corn) and the 4 year downward trend that is still intact despite the recent bounce.
Can The 2008 30% Drop In Gold Price Happen Again?
Many don't remember in 2008 the 30% drop in the price of gold SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) that coincided with the drop in the stock market represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) which lost 34% the same year. They do remember gold bottoming in November 2008 and taking off to its all-time high in 2011 putting square blame on the financial bubble that had just popped and an uncertain future.
Nothing Has Changed With My Gold Call Below $1,000
Gold has bounced from the $1,050-$1,100 range it had traded in and moved up about $150 and I keep getting emails asking me whether I think the $1,000 mark can still be broken. For those who have followed my call for lower prices in gold, my advice has still been the same; dollar cost average into your allocation into precious metals. Whether or not gold falls below $1,000 is secondary in nature and only for those who want to time the market.
Deflation Will Drive The Price Of Gold Lower
In my October 29th article What Will Gold And The Dollar Do Next? explaining what I see next for precious metals I said the dollar will move past 100 to 120 and that gold will fall below $1,000 an ounce during this move. The dollar was just over 97 on the index and has moved to a high of 100.09 as of Nov. 25th, or almost 3% in one month. Gold Meanwhile has fallen from $1,159 on October 29th to $1,070 as of Nov. 25th or a decline of 7.68%.
An early study of the Pelicans defense
The Pelicans have yet to make good on their promised improvement on defense. After 20 days of NBA basketball, the New Orleans Pelicans are the worst defensive team in the league, allowing 109.9 points allowed per 100 possession. That's bad. Like legitimately bad. Consider that the worst defenses of the past two seasons clocked in a number close to that (the worst defenses in 2013-14 & 2014-15 clocked in at 109.1 & 109.6 points allowed per 100 possession). Don't panic yet though.
Record losing streak for silver ETF
Alongside gold's flirtation with a five-year low, silver has gone into the tank as well. Today's 0.7% decline in the SLV puts that ETF on track for its 10th-consecutive day in the red - the ETFs longest such stretch since its 2006 launch.For the steak as a whole, SLV is down about 10%, roughly the same amount as the metal, which now trades hands at $14.29 per ounce. Silver's low for the year (and 5-year low) is $13.35, set in August.ETFs: SLV, AGQ, PSLV, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SLVO, DSLV, DBS, USV
Gold takes out new multi-year low
With equity investors back to the business of buying low and selling high, the Fed prepped for a rate hike, and dollar strength continuing, the gold bid is disappearing.A 1.5% decline today to $1,066 per ounce has brought the yellow metal to its lowest level in six years. GLD -1.4%Gold is lower by 18% since an early 2015 rally took it all the way past $1,300 per ounce.ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, GEUR, UBG, GYEN, QGLDX
What Will Gold And The Dollar Do Next?
The story going around of late has been if the Fed raises rates, it's bad for gold The last Fed meeting the Fed held off on raising rates, and gold moved higher. For the subscribers of my ETF Leveraged Daily Trading Service I wrote the following Tuesday leading up to Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision. It's not just gold but also the stock market that is affected by the Fed's interest rate decisions. The threat of higher rates is thought to be negative for stocks.
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