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As a regional outreach manager for the Cleveland Fed, my work allows me and the Community Development Department to better understand the region’s local economy and the barriers for lower-income individuals and communities. Economic and financial inclusion are critical to the department’s—and the Bank’s—work. In the Pittsburgh region, community partners have been very focused on the economic mobility challenges for lower-income residents.
We are now in one of the longest expansions on record. The recession that preceded that expansion was one of the worst in history. Are those two facts related? Some economists suggest they are, while others suggest it’s the other way around: Longer expansions lead to more severe recessions. We assess the evidence for these two hypotheses. We find clear evidence for the former and little for the latter.
An inverted Treasury yield curve—a yield curve where short-term Treasury interest rates are higher than long-term Treasury interest rates—is a good predictor of recessions. Because of this, economists and policymakers often assess the risk of a yield curve inversion when the yield curve is flattening. I study the forecastability of yield curve inversions. Professional forecasters did not predict the beginning of the yield curve inversions prior to the 1990–1991, 2001, and 2008–2009 recessions.
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