Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Ed Cornforth
The Global Macroeconomic Impact of the Recent Surge in Energy Prices
Our recent work on the potential impacts of the increase in global oil and gas prices compared a permanent and transitory scenario and how the UK economy would react. As our model, NiGEM, is a global model, we can also explore how the impact differs across countries. As global gas prices have risen even higher since we published our initial publication, in this piece we shock them by 80 per cent rather than 50 per cent. Figure 1 shows the inflationary impact for some of the major world economies.
Analysing the Chancellor's Tax Options
With tax rises likely in the upcoming Autumn Budget, this policy brief argues that the most realistic option is to look at one of the four main taxes: corporation tax, income tax, employee National Insurance Contributions (NICs) or Value Added Tax (VAT). This being the case, the rest of the brief explores the effects on the economy of raising these taxes.
Verdict on the Budget: Some Building Blocks but not yet a Firm Foundation for Stronger Growth
This is a landmark Budget, the first to be delivered by a Labour government for 14 years. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research welcomes higher spending on public services and more public investment which we have long advocated, but the Budget is also a missed opportunity to rethink the fiscal framework and formulate a wider strategy for economic renewal.
Fiscal Rules: What Value If They Change Whenever Politically Convenient?
When we look at the UK’s desperately poor recent social and economic performance, whom do we hold responsible for such an enormous failure of public administration? I believe that we need a serious examination of our economic progress to be thoroughly and comprehensively produced every year. In this way, we can all gauge progress and the Chancellor can explain what has gone well and what could go better. Over time, this would bring about more focus on and resolution of our economic malaises.
Labour’s First Budget: What Might We Expect?
The government was elected on a manifesto which promises to kickstart economic growth. However, tight public finances mean that room for public investment is limited. How might reform to the fiscal framework ease this constraint? Kickstarting economic growth and achieving the highest sustained growth in the G7 has been the first mission outlined by the new government. To achieve this, increases in both business and public investment will be needed.
UK Fiscal Rules: The Need For Stronger Oversight
In the run-up to the 30 October Budget, there has been a great deal of discussion in the media about the prospect of changes to the government’s fiscal rules. The new Labour government has already signalled that it will not keep exactly to the same fiscal rules as its Conservative predecessor.
Our Thoughts on the King’s Speech
FT: The new government announced a ‘Budget Responsibility Bill’ ensuring the OBR will produce a forecast ahead of every major fiscal event. Do you think this is a good idea and why? And what other steps do you think the government could take to improve the current fiscal framework? JC: Since the OBR was established in 2010, the ratio of public sector net debt to GDP in the UK has climbed steadily from some 70 per cent to sit now at a fraction under 100 per cent of GDP.
Why parties should not rule out raising income taxes
The election campaign has kicked off and, so far, the economy has taken center stage in the debate. There are indeed some big questions to answer for political parties on the main economic issues currently facing the United Kingdom. Given current deficit projections, if a party wants to meet the fiscal target of a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3 per cent, it will need to find an extra £61 billion revenue per year over the next few years. It can do this by raising taxes or cutting expenditure.
Topic Hub: Quantitative Easing
The Bank of England first introduced quantitative easing (QE) in March 2009 in response to the Global Financial Crisis. Up to November 2020, the Bank had purchased £895 billion worth of bonds in total. In February 2022, they began reducing that stock of bonds, known as quantitative tightening (QT).
How Are UK Living Standards Faring Ahead of the General Election?
How have living standards evolved since the previous election in December 2019? Since Covid-19 and the cost-of-living crisis, there has been a vibrant debate about the evolution of living standards among both researchers and policymakers. In our May 2024 Outlook for the UK economy, we found that aggregate real personal disposable income rose by 2.2 per cent in 2023 and is projected to rise by 2.8 per cent in 2024.
Which taxes are best and worst for growth?
Taxes generally have a negative effect on economic growth. Theoretically, they act as a disincentive on whatever is taxed – corporate taxes reduce business investment; and indirect taxes like value added tax (VAT) reduce consumption. Essentially, if your incentive to do an activity is reduced because some of that incentive is taken away in tax (that is, it is made more expensive), you wouldn’t do as much of the activity. This is the direct, negative effect on growth that is present in most taxes.
On Measuring the Labour Income Share
This paper explores two common measures of the labour income share and applies them to the UK. Moreover, it provides novel estimates of the labour income share using a disaggregated approach. Main Points The careful treatment of self-employed (proprietor) income suggests there has been a decline in the UK labour income share. However, this occurred in the last quarter of the 20th century and the recovery after the millennium was modest.
Breaking Down the Different Types of Pension in the UK
What is the State pension and the State pension ‘Triple Lock’? In a nutshell a pension is a way to save money in a tax efficient manner for retirement, providing an income for life after work. In the UK there are state-provided pensions and private or workplace pensions. The State pension is a universal benefit which continues to make up an important part of most individuals’ retirement income.
What Are the Implications of the Rising National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage Rates?
What are the upcoming changes to the National Minimum Wage and the National Living Wage rates? The Low Pay Commission (LPC) is an independent public body that annually reviews evidence on the state of the UK labour market and economy to advise the Government on the increases to the rates of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) and the National Living Wage (NLW) – the lowest required pay for those aged 21 and over.
Sticky Inflation and Sluggish Growth: What Lies Ahead for the UK Economy
Recent UK data has been encouraging. What are your views as to the prospects for UK GDP growth over the medium term? There has indeed been some mildly encouraging news following the latest GDP estimates published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). GDP is expected to have grown by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 and we expect GDP to grow a further 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2023.
Commentary: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Redux - The Mini-Budget
Not so very long ago, I argued that it was possible to characterise modern monetary and fiscal policy in the UK as a function of three key events: exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in September 1992, the election of ‘New Labour’ in May 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2009.
Call for Papers: Finance and Growth Workshop – 7th June 2023 - NIESR
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is holding a one-day workshop on “Finance and Growth”. It will take place on Wednesday, 7th June, at NIESR Offices, 2 Dean Trench Street, SW1P 3HE. The event will be held in person only. We will explore the potential effects of the Edinburgh reforms, announced by the British Government, on financial stability and growth prospects in the UK.
The South African NiGEM expansion
Title : The South African NiGEM expansion Published Date: 2025-06-23 Author: Ed Cornforth, Urvish Patel, Xolani Sibande, Kgotso Morema, Konstantin Makrelov and Ian Hurst Last Modified Date: 2025-06-23, 10:19 AM Category: Publications > Working Papers | What's New This paper presents a new macroeconometric model for South Africa that forms part of the global system of models based on the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM).
Orthodoxy Lost and Found
Against a backdrop of escalating inflation and a gradual unwinding of unconventional monetary policy, global interest rates are gradually recovering to more familiar levels. Ultimately this is a good thing, as it will support the allocation of capital to more productive projects, which produce a rate of return in line with higher interest rates.
Another Chancellor; Another Fiscal Event
The new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has announced that on Friday 23 September there will be a “mini budget”. This means that we will have yet another fiscal event—that is, a set of announcements about taxes and/or government spending—without any independent analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility as to the effect of the announcements on the government’s deficit and debt.
Call For Papers: Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening
With contributions from some of the world’s leading authorities on monetary policy and more broadly, macroeconomic policy, this conference will provide a critical overview of the use of unconventional monetary policy. The workshop will take place on Friday 30 September, at the NIESR Offices, 2 Dean Trench Street, SW1P 3HE. The event will be in-person only, however transcriptions of the event will be made available online afterwards.
Tax in the UK: Analysis of a Progressive Consumption Tax
Taxable consumption can be calculated as income minus savings minus a deduction similar to the current personal allowance. A specific barrier to consideration of a PCT is the lack of concrete, specific evidence on what the distributional effects are. The analysis will provide an evidence base for deciding whether a change to a PCT was beneficial, particularly for low-to middle-income people.
The New Employment Tax
The planned rise in National Insurance contributions will result in a tax system that is unnecessarily complex, distorts the labour market and shifts the tax burden further onto workers and away from the retired. It is a sub-optimal way to raise the extra resources needed to fund the NHS and social care.
Why Ed Miliband shouldn't apologise for making the right decision on Eastern European migration
[This is slightly updated version of an article that appeared first last September in the Independent here.
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Ed
Contact Ed, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack