We received helpful comments from Tincho Almuzara, Isaiah Andrews, Francesco Bianchi, Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Marco Del Negro, Sílvia Gonçalves, Lukas Hack, Joe Hazell, Ethan Ilzetzki, Diego Känzig, Matthias Meier, Geert Mesters, Emi Nakamura, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Valerie Ramey, Ricardo Reis, Jøn Steinsson, Ludwig Straub, and Jonathan Wright. Wolf acknowledges that this material is based upon work supported by the NSF under Grant #2314736, and thanks the Alfred P.