Ed Moya
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Articles by Ed Moya
British pound eyes Bailey testimony - MarketPulse
The British pound is slightly higher on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2725, up 0.12%. BoE’s Bailey testifying before Treasury Select Committee Bank of England Governor Bailey is testifying before the Treasury Select Committee today. His testimony follows the release of the Financial Stability Report and lawmakers want Bailey’s assurances that high interest rates will not affect financial stability.
Australian dollar rises after CPI falls - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar has rebounded on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6705, up 0.28%. Australian CPI eases to 4.3% Australia’s CPI for November rose 4.3% y/y, down considerably from 4.9% in October and just shy of the market estimate of 4.4%. This marked the lowest reading since January 2022. A key measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, climbed 4.6% compared to 5.3% in November.
Nikkei 225: Major bullish breakout from 7-month range with further potential upside in store - MarketPulse
Nikkei 225 rallied to a 34-year high & outperformed the major US benchmark US stock indices year-to-date. Domestic demand-oriented sectors are the outperformers in the current bullish movement seen in the Japanese stock market. The USD/JPY is now having a negative correlation with the Nikkei 225. The sustainability of the current bullish tone seen in the Nikkei 225 is largely more dependent on Japan’s inflation growth outlook.
Australian dollar falls despite solid retail sales - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6685, down 0.51%. Australian retail sales surge Australia’s retail sales sparkled in November but the strong rebound wasn’t reflected in the Australian dollar. Retail sales climbed 2.0% m/m in November, blowing past the estimate of 1.2% and recovering from a revised 0.4% decline in October.
EUR/USD Price Action - Technical Analysis - MarketPulse
EURUSD continues its attempt to reverse back above the 1.1000 level but has been unsuccessful so far, the current trading range is critical, and any real breakout may help in forecasting future price action, we will go over a long-term as well as a short-term timeframe reflecting the current price action.
Japanese yen shrugs as Tokyo Core CPI slows - MarketPulse
Tokyo Core CPI eases to 2.1% The Japanese yen has posted slight gains for a second straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.10, down 0.09%. Tokyo Core CPI dips to 2.1% Tokyo Core CPI rose 2.1% y/y in December, down from 2.3% in November and matching the estimate of 2.1%. This marked the lowest reading since June 2022. At the same time, the indicator has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s target of 2% for 19 straight months.
EUR/GBP Technical: Short-term relative weakness of EUR reasserts against GBP - MarketPulse
Persistent underperformance of the EUR against GBP as the EUR/GBP cross pair reintegrated below the 200-day moving average. The hourly RSI momentum indicator of EUR/GBP has flashed out a bearish momentum condition. Watch the 0.8615 key short-term resistance with intermediate supports coming in at 0.8550 and 0.8500.
US Crude Oil - Price Action Technical Analysis - MarketPulse
Talking Points US Crude Oil falls after Saudi Arabia cuts prices Technical Analysis Weekly Chart Technical Analysis 8-Hour Chart Crude Oil prices ended 2023 with 3 months of consecutive declines, prices fell from a peak of $95 in September 2023 down to $70.75 today, a drop of almost 25% in price, shrugging off all the extra premiums resulting from the current political risks, and taking the markets back closer to its standard supply and demand dynamics.
Market Insights Podcast - Geopolitical risk uptick ahead of Taiwan Presidential Election with Tokyo, AU and US inflation on the radar next. - MarketPulse
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events; Taiwan Presidential Election this weekend which may trigger a geopolitical risk uptick that gave rise to the underperformance of the China and Hong Kong stock markets at the start of the week.
EUR/USD - Edging higher after bounce off key Fibonacci level - MarketPulse
Euro area data points to further weakness in early 2024 Germany remains a concern amid weak factory numbers EURUSD higher but struggling around 1.10 It was a volatile end to the week for the dollar, with the jobs report initially causing a stir followed by the unexpectedly weak ISM services PMI. Today it’s been Europe that’s delivered a selection of data, albeit none quite as important as the two from the US on Friday.
Australian dollar dips ahead of retail sales - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar is coming off a rough week and is under pressure on Monday. AUD/USD was down as much as 0.50% earlier but has recovered these losses and is unchanged on the day at 0.6717. US nonfarm payrolls beat forecast US nonfarm payrolls, released on Friday, accelerated in December and beat the forecast. The economy added 216,000 jobs in December, compared to November’s downwardly revised 173,000 and above the estimate of 170,000.
Canadian dollar shrugs off weak job numbers - MarketPulse
Canada’s employment growth falls close to zero US nonfarm payrolls hits 216,000 higher than expected USD/CAD has edged higher on Monday and is trading at 1.3387 in Europe, up 0.19%. There are no tier-1 releases out of the US or Canada today, so we can expect a quiet day for USD/CAD. The US dollar jumped out of the gates in the first week of 2024 and rose 0.83% against the Canadian dollar.
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential short-term bounce on the horizon - MarketPulse
Recent decline has almost reached the upward-sloping 50-day moving average. Short-term RSI momentum indicator has suggested downside momentum has eased. Potential short-term bounce above 16,160 key short-term support. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Potential start of minor corrective decline” published on 21 December 2023. Click here for a recap.
USD/JPY edges lower ahead of Tokyo Core CPI - MarketPulse
US nonfarm payrolls rise more than expected to 216,000 Tokyo Core CPI expected to ease to 2.1% The Japanese yen has started the week with slight gains and is trading at 144.39 in the European session, up 0.16%. It was a rough week for the yen, which declined 2.5% against the US dollar, which has looked sharp against most of the majors since New Year’s. US nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected US nonfarm payrolls ended 2023 on a strong note.
USD/JPY Technical: US dollar strength fizzled out ex-post US NFP - MarketPulse
Last week’s broad-based US dollar strength has dissipated ex-post US non-farm payroll data with the continuation of its underperformance against the GBP. The US labour market has started to show growing slack where the labour force participation rate has dipped to 62.5%, its largest monthly decline in almost three years and full-time unemployment recorded its steepest drop since April 2020.
Market Insights Podcast - US jobs report, eurozone inflation - MarketPulse
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the US Jobs report, ISM survey and eurozone inflation data. Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors.
USD/JPY - US jobs data a setback but no game changer - MarketPulse
US NFP 216,000 (170,000 expected, 173,000 in November revised down from 199,000) Average hourly earnings (MoM) 0.4% (0.3% expected, 0.4% in November) USDJPY rebounds off key Fibonacci level The first US jobs report of the year was an early reminder to investors that things don’t always go their way, despite the experience of the last couple of months.
Japanese yen extends losses ahead of nonfarm payrolls - MarketPulse
The Japanese yen continues to lose ground and is down for a fourth straight day on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.14, up 0.36%. The US dollar took a nasty spill in December against the major currencies. USD/JPY plunged 4.8% in December as the Fed made a major pivot and said that it planned to lower rates three times in 2024. Somewhat surprisingly, the US dollar has rebounded sharply against the majors in the first week of January and has surged 2.9% against the yen.
Canadian dollar eyes US, Canada jobs data - MarketPulse
US nonfarm payrolls expected to rise to 199,000 Canada’s employment change projected to drop to 13,500 The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday, but that could change in the North American session, when Canada and the US release the December employment reports. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3363, up 0.10%. The Canadian dollar looked sharp in December, with gains of 2.27%.
USD/JPY Technical: Countertrend USD rebound remains intact ahead of US NFP - MarketPulse
The US dollar is the top performer against the JPY on a 5-day rolling basis (+3%). A monthly US NFP jobs gain of between +240K to +260K may ignite another bout of US dollar rally. Bullish momentum is supporting a potential extension of the ongoing countertrend rebound in USD/JPY. Watch the next intermediate resistance at 146.70/147.45 This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY Technical: Potential countertrend USD corrective rebound on the horizon” published on 2 January 2023.
AUD/JPY Technical Analysis Overview - FX Pairs to Watch - MarketPulse
Talking Points Weekly Chart Technical Analysis Short Term formation before Non-Farm Payroll Weekly Chart Price was trading within an uptrend that began mid-year 2020 and may still be in place, however, the trend acceleration pace slowed once the FED began raising Interest Rates in early 2022, and price action continued sideways failing to make new highs since then.
GBP/USD rises on Services PMI, Construction PMI next - MarketPulse
The British pound has edged higher on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2698, up 0.27%. UK Services PMI beats expectations UK Services Final PMI was a bright note on Thursday. The PMI rose to 53.4 in December, up from 50.9 in November and above the preliminary estimate of 52.7. This marked a second straight expansion after posting three consecutive declines.
EUR/USD - US jobs report eyed after the FOMC minutes - MarketPulse
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses EURUSD on the back of the FOMC minutes and ahead of the first US jobs report of 2024. Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors.
Euro rebounds after FOMC meeting, Geman CPI rises - MarketPulse
Fed uncertain as timing of rate cuts German CPI rises, but core rate falls The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0950, up 0.26%. Fed unclear on rate cut timing The December policy meeting was highly significant as the Fed made a major pivot. After months of sticking to its script of ‘higher for longer’, the Fed threw in the towel and signalled that it expected to cut rates three times in 2024.
Australian dollar stabilizes on solid Chinese PMI - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar has steadied on Thursday and is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, up 0.02%. This follows a four-day slide in which the Aussie fell 1.6%. Later in the day, the US releases unemployment claims and the ADP employment report, which comes just one day ahead of US nonfarm payrolls. China’s Caixin Services PMI improved to 52.9 in December, above 51.5 in November and beating the market consensus of 51.6. The solid reading has helped the Australian dollar stabilize today.
Market Insights Podcast - FOMC minutes push back, US data key - MarketPulse
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the FOMC minutes, US Jolts data and preview Friday’s jobs report. Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors.
Dow - Investors awaiting Fed minutes but jobs data more important - MarketPulse
Stocks pare gains at the start of the year JOLTS data points to less heat in the labor market Dow turns lower after a period of divergence Stock markets are spending a second day in the red, continuing the softer start to the year as traders await minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Given the remarkable end to 2023, it’s not particularly surprising that we’re seeing a little profit-taking at this stage.
Australian dollar's slide continues - MarketPulse
The Australian dollar is down for a fourth straight day and has posted sharp losses on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6719, down 0.62%. The last week of the year was subdued as the data calendar was light. Still, the Australian dollar hit a six-month high on Christmas Day, rising to 0.6871. The Aussie gained 3.1% in December, but has run into some headwinds and is down 1.8% since December 28. China releases the Caixin Services PMI for December on Thursday.
British pound starts New Year's with a tumble - MarketPulse
The British pound is steady on Wednesday after sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2632, up 0.11%. UK Services PMI expected to accelerate UK Services PMI will be released on Thursday. The services sector, which is responsible for most of the economy’s growth, hit a rough patch late last year and posted three straight declines.
EUR/USD stabilizes after slide, FOMC minutes loom - MarketPulse
Euro slips to two-week low US ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to rise slightly FOMC minutes to be released later on Wednesday Germany, Eurozone to release CPI on Thursday The euro has steadied on Wednesday after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0932, down 0.08% and its lowest level since December 21. The US dollar has been struggling in recent weeks but came flying out of the gates on Tuesday, the first trading day of the New Year.
US DJIA Technical: Uptrend intact with looming outperformance over Nasdaq 100 - MarketPulse
Nasdaq 100 outperformance over the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) since the start of the major uptrend phase has started to dissipate. A bullish rotation into the laggard, DJIA is considered a sign of a positive breadth development for the US stock market. Watch the key short-term support at 37,470. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “US DJIA Technical: Bullish impulsive upmove remains intact” published on 29 November 2023. Click here for a recap.
NZD/USD Technical: Pulled back towards potential bullish inflection zone - MarketPulse
Medium-term uptrend phase from 26 October 2023 remains intact. 6240 is the potential bullish inflection level. Hourly RSI has flashed a bullish momentum breakout condition. The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has been oscillating within a medium-term uptrend phase in place since 26 October 2023 low of 0.5774. So far, it has rallied by +596 pips/+10.3% to print a recent intraday high of 0.6370 on 28 December 2023.
Traders eye the US jobs report after an exceptional end to 2023 - MarketPulse
An exceptional end to the year has left markets with a lot to live up to in 2024, with huge rate cuts and a soft landing now among the things investors have priced in. The fantasy scenario for central bankers across the globe over the last couple of years is now a very real possibility but it’s also far from guaranteed, despite how markets are now positioned. With so much now to live up to, investors may start asking themselves whether evaluations have become a little stretched.
British pounds takes a tumble on soft Mfg. PMI - MarketPulse
The British pound has started the New Year with sharp losses. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2626, down 0.82%. UK Manufacturing PMI eases lower The UK manufacturing sector remains in the doldrums. December’s Manufacturing PMI eased to 46.2, below the consensus of 46.4 and shy of the November reading of 47.2, which was a seven-month high. Manufacturing production has now declined for ten straight months.
Euro extends losses after weak PMIs - MarketPulse
Euro slips below 1.10 line German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs contract The euro is down sharply on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0969, down 0.62%. The euro hasn’t posted a gain since Wednesday. The US dollar has hit a rough patch on market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates up to six times this year and that the current rate-tightening cycle is over. The euro has pummelled the US dollar since November 1, falling 5.3%.
USD/JPY Technical: Potential countertrend USD corrective rebound on the horizon - MarketPulse
The medium-term downtrend phase of USD/JPY in place since the 15 November 2023 high has reached a potential inflection level at 140.25. A potential countertrend corrective rebound scenario may unfold next. Watch the first immediate resistance zone at 142.85/143.40. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY Technical: JPY strength remains intact ahead of BoJ” published on 19 December 2023. Click here for a recap.
Australian dollar edges higher after Chinese data - MarketPulse
China Caixin Manufacturing posts slight growth The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6826, up 0.22%. The week between Christmas and New Year’s was subdued in the currency markets. Still, the Australian dollar hit a six-month high on Christmas Day, rising to 0.6871. The Aussie ended the year on a roll, gaining 3.1% in December.
Goodbye 2023 and hello to a potentially volatile 2024 - MarketPulse
Auld Lang Syne to 2023 and welcome 2024! Here is a recap of the key highlights that shocked global markets in 2023 and the potential emerging themes to look out for in 2024 as well as my “Chart Of The Year”.
EUR/USD steady as Spanish CPI lower than expected - MarketPulse
Spanish CPI lower than expected at 3.1% Chicago PMI expected to decelerate to 51.0 The euro is calm in Friday trade. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1053, down 0.08%. Spanish CPI dips to 3.1% Spain released the December inflation report today, with CPI dipping to 3.1% y/y, down from 3.2% in November. This was better than expected as the consensus estimate stood at 3.4%.
Euro edges lower ahead of Spanish CPI - MarketPulse
Thursday: US unemployment claims rise unexpectedly Friday: Spanish CPI projected to accelerate The euro has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1079, down 0.25%. On Wednesday, the euro closed above the 1.11 line for the first time since July. US unemployment claims higher than expected US unemployment claims, released earlier today, climbed unexpectedly to 218,000, up from an upwardly revised 206,000 a week earlier.
AUD/USD eyes Chinese PMIs - MarketPulse
China releases PMIs on Saturday The Australian dollar has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6833, down 0.21%. Earlier today, the Aussie climbed as high as 0.6871, its highest level since July. Risk appetite rise boosts Aussie The US dollar has hit rough times and the Australian dollar has taken full advantage, surging 7.8% since November 1st.
Japanese yen keeps on rolling - MarketPulse
Japanese retail sales climb but industrial production declines Japanese gain rises sharply The Japanese yen has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.66, down 0.82%. Japanese retail sales beat forecast Japanese releases were a mixed bag today. Retail sales impressed with a gain of 5.3% y/y in November, following a downwardly revised 4.1% gain in October and beating the market consensus of 5.0%.
Euro jumps to 5-month high - MarketPulse
Euro climbs sharply as risk appetite rises US Richmond Manufacturing Index falls The euro has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1121, up 0.72%. Euro climbs on risk-on mood The US dollar is under pressure this week as we’re seeing a risk-on mood in global markets. The week between Christmas and New Year’s is normally quiet, with a very light data calendar.
Swiss franc hits 9-year high - MarketPulse
The Swiss franc is slightly lower in Wednesday trade. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8509, down 0.31%. The Swiss franc continues to power higher and has climbed 2.5% against the slumping US dollar in the month of December. The Swissie has pummelled the greenback in 2023, gaining 7.7%, and is trading at its highest level since January 2015. The Swiss National Bank has been buying Swiss francs during the year in order to boost its value and dampen inflation.
USD/JPY steady, BoJ releases summary of opinions - MarketPulse
BoJ Summary of Opinion highlights split over shift in policy The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.54, up 0.12%. The Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the December meeting was released earlier today. That meeting was somewhat of a disappointment to the markets, as there were expectations of a move after senior BoJ members hinted prior to the meeting that the Bank was looking to lift interest rates out of negative territory.
British pound calm in holiday-thin markets - MarketPulse
The British pound is almost unchanged on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2709, up 0.11%. UK banks are closed for a holiday today, which means the pound is likely to have a quiet day. The UK ended last week on a mixed note. Retail sales jumped 1.3% bouncing back from no growth in October. The GDP report for the third quarter declined by 0.1%, compared to the initial estimate of no growth.
Canadian dollar posts another strong week - MarketPulse
Canadian GDP remains flat for a second straight month PCE Price Index eases The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3248, down 0.14%. Canadian banks are closed for a holiday, which means it should remain an uneventful day for the Canadian dollar. As there are no Canadian events this week, US releases could have a magnified impact on the movement of the Canadian dollar.
USD/JPY yawns after BoJ CPI slips - MarketPulse
BOJ Core CPI falls to 2.5% BoJ’s Ueda hints at possible shift in policy The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.39, down 0.04%. BoJ Core CPI drops more than anticipated Japanese inflation indicators have been heading lower. Last week, Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, dropped in November from 2.9% to 2.5%.
Yen steady as Japanese inflation dips - MarketPulse
Japanese core inflation falls to 2.5%, as expected US to release PCE Price Index on Friday The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.03, down 0.06%. Japanese core inflation eases to 2.5% Japan’s Core CPI, which excludes fresh fuel but includes fuel costs, dropped to 2.5% in November, matching the consensus estimate. This was down from the October gain of 2.9% and marked the lowest reading since July 2022.
GBP/USD shrugs after mixed UK data - MarketPulse
UK retail sales jump 1.3%, GDP contracts by 0.1% US to release PCE Price Index on Friday The British pound is drifting on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2701, up 0.08%. UK retail sales rebound but GDP contracts UK retail sales jumped 1.3% in November m/m, bouncing back from 0% in October and beating the consensus estimate of 0.4%. This was the sharpest pace of growth since January and the increase was felt in all sub-sectors.
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