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Articles by Elliot D. Pollack
Pollack: Inflation heats up before the midterms Original
By Elliot D. Pollack & Co. September’s CPI is the last voters will see before November 3rd, and Arizona’s job gain is not quite what it seems. Inflation went the wrong way in September, and it picked a bad time to do it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% for the month and stands 3.7% above a year ago, up from 3.4% in August and the highest reading since May. Gasoline did most of the damage, jumping 9.1% in September alone and 34.2% from a year ago.
Pollack: Economy pulling in two directions Original
By Elliot D. Pollack & Co. The Fed raised rates into a softer job market, and inflation pressure is not subsiding. The September jobs report was a dud. Employers added just 29,000 jobs, compared to an expectation of roughly 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August. The revisions made it worse. July and August were revised down a combined 60,000 jobs, and July now shows a loss of 10,000. Over the past three months, payrolls have grown by an average of about 51,000 a month.
Pollack: Fed rate cuts on the horizon?
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Co. Several prominent economists are calling for the Fed to cut its interest rate because it is undermining the process of bringing down inflation. The problem is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) places more than one-third of its calculation on what is referred to as “shelter” which includes both rent people pay and an implied cost of homeownership.
Pollack: Can inflation be tamed? - Rose Law Group Reporter
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Co. Inflation and the Fed The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline to 3.4% from 3.5% in March set off a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high for the market index of 40,000. Clearly the market is hoping and wishing for a reduction in the Fed rate. But is a slight one month decline a reason to believe the Fed will drop rates?
Pollack: The ACA, employment numbers, and other data snapshots Original
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Company I have been a practicing economist in Arizona since 1969. I started my career as an economist for the largest bank in the state at that time and finished my career as an economic consultant, advisor, and keynote speaker. I have been more than a casual observer and participant in the economic development process over the last 50 years.
Pollack: An easy choice for Arizona’s future — why debate a clear winner? - Rose Law Group Reporter
By Elliot D. Pollack | Arizona Capitol Times I have been a practicing economist in Arizona since 1969. I started my career as an economist for the largest bank in the state at that time and finished my career as an economic consultant, advisor, and keynote speaker. I have been more than a casual observer and participant in the economic development process over the last 50 years. I have seen ideas and organizations, good and bad, come and go.
Pollack: The Fed: Hold ‘em? Original
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Co. | Rose Law Group Reporter What Will Happen at the Next Fed Meeting on September 19th and 20th? The Federal Reserve has three remaining meetings this year, the next one starting tomorrow. The meetings are likely to be significant with most market observers anticipating that the Fed will hold rates steady for this month.
Pollack: Defying predictions
Inflation cooled last month to its slowest pace in more than two years, continuing the trend of a declining inflation rate over the past year. The consumer-price index (CPI) climbed 3% in June from a year earlier, sharply lower than the recent peak inflation rate of 9.1% in June 2022, and gasoline prices hit a U.S. record average of $5 a gallon. June’s rate was down from 4% in May.
Pollack: Sculpting the core Original
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week The Commerce Department last week revised its estimate of real GDP growth upward for the first quarter of 2023 from 1.3% to 2.0%. The increase reflected strong consumer spending, exports, government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment. The first quarter GDP estimate was a deceleration compared to the rate for fourth quarter of 2022 of 2.6%.
Pollack: Still waiting for a downturn
New stores confirmed for fast-growing retail center in Surprise By Audrey Jensen | Phoenix Business Journal Target, Kohls, Boot Barn and more are bringing new stores to the fast-growing Prasada shopping centers in Surprise Read More » Maricopa County Board of Supervisors approves 2024 budget By Brandon Gray | KTAR PHOENIX — One year after passing the largest tax rate cut in county history, the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors approved unanimously Monday it is cutting the county’s primary...
Pollack: Where is the recession??
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week Where is the Recession?? Year-over-year as of April 2023, total nonfarm employment in Arizona increased by 60,700 jobs, or 2.0%, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.4% in April 2023 from 3.5% in March 2023. The U.S. unemployment rate also declined to 3.4% in April. Arizona nonfarm employment increased by 13,800 jobs in April.
Pollack: Thanks, Silicon Valley Bank!
Dust off your Hollister jeans: Outlet malls are back By Frances Solá-Santiago | Refinery29 At New York’s Woodbury Common Premium Outlets, the scene is straight out of an early 2000s film’s mall sequence. Groups of 20-somethings Read More » Why industry is moving to Yuma County By AZBEX The Greater Yuma Economic Development Corp. recently presented information on why the City of Yuma and Yuma County continue to see strong economic development and business location and expansion.
Pollack: MMQ on SVB
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week Silicon Valley Bank, the 16th largest bank in the country and which has a large operations center in the Valley, collapsed over the weekend and was taken over by the FDIC. The stunning move in just a few days brought attention to vulnerabilities in the certain parts of the banking system as interest rates continue to rise.
Pollack: What’s up with the economy??
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Co As we start the new year with the thought of an impending recession, we get surprising news. The U.S. labor market accelerated at the start of the year adding a robust 517,000 jobs and pushing the unemployment rate to a 53-year low to 3.4%.
Pollack: Runaway inflation slows Original
By Elliot D. Pollack. & Co | Rose Law Group Reporter Prices rose less than expected in November, the latest sign that the runaway inflation that has been gripping the economy is beginning to loosen up. The consumer price index, which measures a wide basket of goods and services, rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and a 7.3% 12-month rate.
Pollack: Recession or not?
Will the Phoenix housing market crash again? By Andrew DePietro | Forbes Phoenix, for more than a half-century, has exploded in terms of its population. From a population of a little over Read More » Springs at Eastmark is welcoming residents By AZRE Continental Properties is welcoming residents to Springs at Eastmark, their newest apartment community located at 9321 E Warner Rd., less than five miles east of Gilbert Gateway Towne Center.
Pollack: A mix of indicators
Republicans were ‘carjacked’ by ‘grifters,’ Karrin Taylor Robson says Taylor Robson knew she would have to win over supporters of former President Donald Trump, but didn’t think that would be a problem.: Gage Skidmore/Flickr Read More » Housing demand deteriorates in Phoenix By Steven Hensley | Builder Housing market conditions in the Phoenix MSA have changed rapidly in the latter half of 2022.
Pollack: Economic uncertainty grows
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Co. | Rose Law Group Reporter The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter but showed signs of a broad slowdown as consumer and business spending faltered under high inflation and rising interest rates.
Pollack: Zeroing in on real estate Original
‘I get it’: Sen. Mark Kelly says he understands inflation pain, pushes for action By Ronald J. Hansen || Arizona Republic Sen.
Pollack: An economy ‘strong as hell’?
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week We are living in a period that feels like an inflection point. The newest Wall Street Journal survey of economists place the probability of recession in the next 12 months at 63%, much higher than the 49% reported in July. Recession means slower economic growth and job losses. Yet, the economy is still actively adding jobs and the unemployment rate dropped last month.
Pollack: Who is correct on fighting inflation?
Phoenix five-year CIP nears $10B. By Bex Staff | AZBEX The City of Phoenix’s Five-year Capital Improvement Plan has hit a new high-water mark for funding with $9.778B in overall planned expenditures and Read More » What will the Valley look like in 2040? By William Pitts | 12News PHOENIX — Think about the Valley in 2002.
Pollack: Economic expectations turn somber
Rose Law Group Reporter, which provides Dealmaker’s content and service, is contracted by Rose Law Group.
Pollack: Curb your inflation Original
[OPINION] Bill Gates: ‘We’re in a worse place than I expected’ By David Wallace-Wells | New York Times There are not many more contested abstractions in the contemporary world than progress. Are things getting better? Fast enough?
Pollack: Recessionland: Are we there yet? Original
Ducey travels to Taiwan, Korea on trade mission as Arizona grows its semiconductor industry By Corina Vanek | Arizona Republic Gov. Doug Ducey arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday morning, as part of a five-day trip that will include a Read More » Pollack: Impact of Biden’s student loan forgiveness The Monday Morning QuarterbackA quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D.
Pollack: Impact of Biden’s student loan forgiveness
Popular butcher shop coming to Maricopa By Jay Taylor | InMaricopa One of the Valley’s best-known butcher shops is coming to Maricopa.
Pollack: Economic whiplash
EVs qualifying for new electric tax credit By Keith Barry | Consumer Reports Some new and used electric cars may be getting more affordable for consumers thanks to new tax credits, but Read More » New York firm acquires majority share of Barrett-Jackson (Disclosure: Rose Law Group represents Barrett-Jackson) By Brandon Brown | Phoenix Business Journal IMG, the New York-based sports, media and fashion management company, acquired the Read More » Casa Grande looks to expand industrial growth By...
Pollack: Economic dichotomy
Pollack: Good news never felt so bad The Monday Morning QuarterbackA quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D.
Pollack: Good news never felt so bad Original
How manufacturing in Pinal County is gaining momentum By Kyle Backer | AZ Big Media Pinal County, Arizona’s third largest by population, has experienced a manufacturing renaissance in recent years. Located between the state’s two biggest cities, the municipalities in Pinal County have become prime targets for businesses looking to locate in the Grand Canyon State — especially manufacturers.
Pollack: Sure feels like a recession
Pollack: Housing: Where is it headed? The Monday Morning QuarterbackA quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Co Where is the Housing Read More » How one small Valley city is trying to attract more industrial users Avanti Windows and Doors plans to build a new 261,100-square-foot facility on about 30 acres near El Mirage Road and Olive Avenue in El Mirage.
Pollack: Housing: Where is it headed?
Corporation panel offers Rio Verde a choice By J. Graber | Scottsdale Progress The Arizona Corporation Commission has waded into the water shortage crisis in the Rio Verde Foothills area. Arizona Corporation Read More » Could the Arizona Legislature get any more conservative? YES. And it just might Depot photo Opinion: The Republicans who control the Arizona Legislature are about to become even more conservative. If that’s even possible.
Pollack: Housing: Where is it headed?
More homes are being listed in Phoenix than anywhere else in the U.S. By 12 News PHOENIX — All over the Valley, a growing number of “for sale” signs signal a change in the housing market.
Pollack: Inflation: How bad is it?
Former Maricopa mayor now leads local economic development group in fast-growing city By Audrey Jensen | Phoenix Business Journal Christian Price, the former mayor of the city of Maricopa, recently started his new role as president and Read More » Bell Bank Park sports complex has been bleeding money, spooking investors By Richard Ruelas | Arizona Republic Bell Bank Park, the massive Mesa sports complex that opened to much fanfare in January and was funded through Read More » Pollack: The...
Pollack: The economy’s mixed messages
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week Inflation’s drag on the economy continue to persist and it has continued to increase recession odds. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal recently raised the probability of recession to 44% in the next 12 months. This level of probability is usually seen only on the brink of or during actual recessions.
Pollack: Inflation, what a drag Original
S.Korea’s LGES reviews $1.3B Arizona battery investment as U.S. inflation bites By Heekyong Yang | Reuters South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solution Ltd (LGES) (373220.KS), a major supplier to U.S. carmakers including Tesla (TSLA.O), is reassessing a Read More » Pollack: Investor home-buying boom The Monday Morning QuarterbackA quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week Investor Impact on Housing Prices Fortune magazine had an interesting Read More » Mayor says...
Pollack: A cooling economy
Mesa council candidates talk economic development By RIchard Dyer | YourValley A primary election is Aug. 2 for candidates in Mesa City Council districts 4, 5 and 6, with terms expiring in January 2027. Candidates filing for a Read More » Pollack: Inflation Will Be With Us For Awhile The Monday Morning QuarterbackA quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D.
Pollack: Inflation Will Be With Us For Awhile - Rose Law Group Reporter Original
Pinal County budget exceeds $1 billion By Mark Cowling | Pinal Central FLORENCE – A tentative annual budget topping $1 billion was approved 4-1 Wednesday by the Pinal County Board of Read More » Florence hires new economic development director Harvey Krauss has been hired as Florence’s new economic development director and senior planner, He was an applicant for the vacant town manager position.
Pollack: Recession risk still looms Original
Telecommunications company plans to add 1,500 jobs in Tempe (Rendering via Viasat) By Corina Vanek | Arizona Republic Viasat, a satellite communications company based in California, is expanding in Tempe and will develop over Read More » Governor in Israel to talk trade, water, and border security Center for Israel Education/Facebook By Christopher Conover | Arizona Public Media Arizona Gov.
Pollack: Pluses & minuses
Pinal leads state in economic growth By Jodie Newell | Pinal Central CASA GRANDE — According to a recent financial survey, repeated talk of Pinal County experiencing an economic boom isn’t Read More » Pollack: Optimism and concern The Monday Morning QuarterbackA quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D.
Pollack: Optimism and concern
West Valley businesses, city want to revitalize this underutilized area of Buckeye By Aubrey Jensen | Phoenix Business Journal Sophia Martinez moved to Buckeye several years ago with her family from California with the dream of opening Read More » Glendale tentatively approves $1.07B city budget By Steve Stockmar | Your Valley One year after the city of Glendale’s total budget increased 67% from the year prior, the budget figures to Read More » Florence bracing for lean budget year By Mark...
Pollack: Honey, I shrunk the economy
Surprise City Center poised to go vertical By Jason Stone | Your Valley Carefree Partners President Rick West is thinking big these days.
Pollack: The dreaded 'R' word
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week Recession. That is the topic floating around Wall Street. Goldman Sachs, the investment banker, puts the odds of a U.S. recession at a 38% probability within the next 24 months. Part of the concern is the inverted yields on the two-year and ten-year Treasuries, typically a sign that investors have deep concerns about the strength of the economy in the years to come.
Pollack: Arizona’s population boom
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Co. | Rose Law Group Reporter The U.S. Census Bureau released some important data this month. Maricopa County was found to be the fastest growing county in the U.S. between July 2020 and July 2021, increasing by 58,246 persons.
Pollack: Economic Disruptions - Rose Law Group Reporter
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week For two years now, the “Economic Disruptions” bingo card has nearly filled up. If it’s not one thing, it’s another. The Omicron variant of COVID was waning and jobs have been recovering rapidly. But supply chain issues have persisted and combined with a lot of money in the system and highly stimulative fiscal policy, inflation pressure took center stage.
Pollack: An empty feeling
Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week Our hearts are with the people of Ukraine and reporting on economic data feels a bit hollow right now. Any economic pain we may end up feeling pales in comparison to the senseless devastation and loss of life from war and violence occurring in Ukraine and elsewhere. War and geopolitical tensions create disruptions and uncertainty.
Pollack: And now there is war - Rose Law Group Reporter
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week And Now There Is War Over the past two years we have dealt with the effects of COVID, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, inflation, unfilled service jobs, and rising home prices and rents to name a few. And now there is war. A madman with his finger on the nuclear button has decided to conduct an unprovoked invasion of a neighboring sovereign nation.
Pollack: Everything is more expensive
Everything is more expensive, and consumers are not happy about it. Inflation has now reached 7.5%, the highest it’s been in 40 years. Prices have increased across the board, led by gasoline prices, housing, automobiles, food, and clothing. Consumer sentiment has dropped, largely due to the fact that each dollar doesn’t stretch nearly as far as it used to just a short time ago. We await the Fed’s decision to increase interest rates, which by now is a foregone conclusion.
Pollack: Fed up?
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week The latest reading of inflation at 6.2% puts us in territory not seen in three decades and is at the forefront of the minds of consumers, businesses, and economic experts. It has caused the Blue Chip panel of forecasters to moderate their expectations once again for GDP both this year and next. Consumer sentiment is also at the lowest level in a decade with inflation concerns as the main culprit.
Pollack: Completing the housing
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week More data came in rounding out the complete picture for 2021. Greater Phoenix surpassed 31,000 single family home permits, a level not seen since 2007. The second half of the year did slow however, due to a combination of inflation, material shortages, and labor shortages. Indeed, growth in permits has far outpaced growth in deliveries with the stretching of construction timeframes.
Pollack: COVIDflation
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week We’re ringing in the new year with the same old news from last year and a look at fresh forecasts. Barring any new setbacks, many economists expect the U.S. expansion to continue at an above average rate both this year and next. Really, what we are watching are major impacts to our economy, the responses that they will receive, and how that will impact everyone. Namely, COVID-19 and inflation.
Pollack: New year brings hope, headwinds
The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week By Elliot D. Pollack & Co | Rose Law Group Reporter At the beginning of each new year, people look forward with the hopes for a better life. New year’s resolutions are made (and often forgotten), but the new year brings a new outlook for many Americans. Here in Arizona, there is reason for a positive outlook. Our state has been one of the leaders in economic growth and that trend should continue.
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