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Articles by Evan Boyd
Double up the Knowledge: Introducing TRACR for FCS Football Analysis
We’ve added our predictive TRACR model as another tool for analyzing FCS football teams. The outputs include team ratings and predictions, along with each team’s projected record and probability of winning out. Here’s how the computer element adds to the human element in Opta Analyst’s FCS coverage. Get set to be the most-informed FCS football fan in the stadium.
Computer Science > Software Engineering
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Women's Final Four Predictions: Here's a Championship Case for Each Team
We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times to find each team’s probability of advancing in March Madness. Here’s what we learned about the women’s Final Four. The 2025 NCAA women’s basketball tournament is capping off a competitive, thrilling season.
Women's NCAA Tournament Predictions
We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament bracket thousands of times to find each team’s probability of advancing in March Madness on the women’s side. Here’s what we learned. This is the golden era of women’s college basketball, and the recent NCAA tournaments have been historic. We saw the dominance of South Carolina, the moxie of Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, and the greatness of Caitlin Clark.
NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness?
We’ve simulated the NCAA men’s basketball tournament thousands of times to find the chances of teams making it to each round in March Madness. Here’s everything we learned. From full court buzzer beaters to dominance against the No. 1 team in the country, this season has been full of drama. The NCAA men’s basketball tournament should continue that trend. We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster).
Women's College Basketball Stats, Tables, Predictions, Fixtures
Women's Final Four Predictions: UConn Faces a Challenge in Repeat Clash of Titans The women's Final Four is familiar - the same teams as last year. Can UConn repeat amid an epic group of No. 1 seeds?
2025 Women's Conference Tournament Predictions
We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA women’s basketball conference tournament predictions. March is an exciting time in women’s basketball every season. But this season might be even better. Conference tournaments are the final note of record when the selection committee decides where to seed each team. With more parity in women’s hoops than in years past, the seedings could go a long way toward determining the eventual champion.
2025 Men's Conference Tournament Predictions
We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA men’s basketball conference tournament predictions. Upsets. Buzzer-beaters. Improbable runs. Epic performances. March Madness begins with conference tournament play that will go a long way toward determining seeds and who will get into 2025 NCAA Tournament. Cinderellas will sneak in, bubbles will burst, and the cream will rise to the top.
Introducing Our College Basketball Wins Above Replacement
Who should be the player of the year? In every sport, arguments are made over who is the league’s best player, citing player statistics, team success, and how an individual plays relative to others around them. Many have attempted to combine this in an “all-in-one rating” to describe player performance or to predict future success. Opta Analyst and our parent company Stats Perform introduced DRIP – our Daily-Updated Rating of Individual Performance – back in 2021.
NBA Predictions 2024-25
How our projection model works: It incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule throughout the season to date and our supercomputer simulates the remaining schedule to produce our season-long NBA predictions. TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers.
FCS Football: Introducing the TRACR Metric
We’ve added our predictive TRACR model as another tool for analyzing FCS football teams. The outputs include team ratings and predictions, along with each team’s projected record and probability of winning out. Here’s how the computer element adds to the human element in Opta Analyst’s FCS coverage. Get set to be the most-informed FCS football fan in the stadium.
NFL Predictions 2024
Our NFL predictions 2024 are updated after every scoring play throughout the season. How our projection model works: Rather than being a simulator of future games, it calculates projections by looking at each team’s quarterback and EVE (efficiency vs. expected) performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations. The model analyzes every matchup of the regular season and gives each team a predicted win percentage across its games.
College Football Data Day | Week 3 Preview
The Analyst's NFL & College Football Data Day College Football Data Day | Week 3 Preview 00:00 / 00:30:47 Acast Amazon Apple Podcasts Deezer Google Podcasts Podchaser Spotify Stitcher Subscribe: Acast | Amazon | Apple Podcasts | Deezer | Google Podcasts | Podchaser | Spotify | Stitcher We are back again. Join our panel for a college football Week 3 preview as the season continues to take shape.
College Football Week 11 Preview | The Data Day
The Analyst's NFL & College Football Data Day College Football Week 11 Preview | The Data Day 00:00 / 00:24:23 Acast Amazon Apple Podcasts Deezer Google Podcasts Podchaser Spotify Stitcher Subscribe: Acast | Amazon | Apple Podcasts | Deezer | Google Podcasts | Podchaser | Spotify | Stitcher After the potential ‘Game of the Century’ last time out turned into a bit of a dud, what have we got to look forward to in our College Football Week 11 preview?
2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions
Our 2024 NHL predictions update after each game all the way through the Stanley Cup playoffs. The NHL playoffs are here following a regular season in which the New York Rangers won the Eastern Conference and Dallas Stars paced the Western Conference. Heading into the postseason, we have the Rangers with the best chances of any team to reach the second round (71.1%), but it’s the Stars with the highest likelihood of lifting the Stanley Cup (12.2%).
NBA Predictions 2023-24
Our 2023-24 NBA predictions are updated during every game throughout the season and playoffs. How our projection model works: It incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule throughout the season to date and our supercomputer simulates the remaining schedule to produce our season-long NBA predictions. TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers.
2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions
Our 2024 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs predictions update daily along the way to the Stanley Cup. Follow us on X and Instagram for more.
Women's Sweet 16 Predictions: Change Ahead in March Madness?
With the help of our TRACR model, we’ve calculated the probabilities of advancement during March Madness. So if you’re looking for women’s Sweet 16 predictions, you’re in the right place. Here’s an easy guess: Your men’s NCAA Tournament bracket is not doing too well. How about your women’s bracket, though? If you went all chalk in your predictions, you would be in great shape.
Who Will Advance?
With the help of our TRACR model, we’ve calculated the probabilities of advancement for the NCAA Sweet 16. So if you’re looking for March Madness predictions, you’re in the right place. What a wild first weekend for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Yeah, where to even begin with March Madness, which is so aptly named, of course. How about No. 11 seed Duquesne starting off the upsets against 6-seed BYU last Thursday? Or Dayton making a miraculous comeback against Nevada?
NCAA Sweet 16 2024: All No. 1, 2 Seeds Are Alive
With the help of our TRACR model, we’ve calculated the probabilities of advancement for the NCAA Sweet 16. So if you’re looking for March Madness predictions, you’re in the right place. What a wild first weekend for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Yeah, where to even begin with March Madness, which is so aptly named, of course. How about No. 11 seed Duquesne starting off the upsets against 6-seed BYU last Thursday? Or Dayton making a miraculous comeback against Nevada?
2024 March Madness Predictions
With the help of our TRACR model, we’ve calculated the probabilities of advancement for each team in the field. So if you’re looking for 2024 March Madness predictions, you’re in the right place. After more than four months of basketball, 32 conference tournaments, buzzer-beating shots and all-around chaos, the time has finally come for the NCAA Tournament. Oh, it could be fun having more college basketball chaos in the next three weeks.
2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions
With the help of our TRACR model, we’ve calculated the probabilities of advancement for each team in the field. So if you’re looking for 2024 NCAA Tournament predictions, you’re in the right place. After more than four months of basketball, 32 conference tournaments, buzzer-beating shots and all-around chaos, the time has finally come for the NCAA Tournament. Oh, it could be fun having more college basketball chaos in the next three weeks.
Women's NCAA Tournament Predictions
With the help of our TRACR model, we’ve calculated the probabilities of advancement for each team during March Madness. So if you’re looking for 2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament predictions, you’re in the right place. March Madness doubles as March Gladness, as the arrival of the NCAA Tournament in both men’s and women’s college basketball signals the best tournament in sports is finally here. Isn’t this the most wonderful time of the year?
NCAA Women's Basketball Conference Tournament Predictions
We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA women’s basketball conference tournament predictions. If you have not watched a women’s college basketball game this season, now is the time with the NCAA Tournament approaching. The sport is growing faster than ever, which should not be surprising because the storylines have been historic, and perhaps ready to be even better during March Madness. Will No. 1 South Carolina finally have a perfect season?
NCAA Men's Basketball Conference Tournament Predictions
We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA men’s basketball conference tournament predictions. Now is the time to find out who will dance and who will be left on the bleachers. There are 12 days until Selection Sunday, but there will still be some incredible basketball from now until then. This stretch will help plant the seeds (pun intended) for the NCAA Tournament. Conference tournament season will be wild.
Women's NCAA Conference Tournament Predictions
We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our women’s NCAA conference tournament predictions. If you have not watched a women’s college basketball game this season, now is the time with the NCAA Tournament approaching. The sport is growing faster than ever, which should not be surprising because the storylines have been historic, and perhaps ready to be even better during March Madness. Will No. 1 South Carolina finally have a perfect season?
NCAA Conference Tournament Predictions
We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA conference tournament predictions. Now is the time to find out who will dance and who will be left on the bleachers. There are 12 days until Selection Sunday, but there will still be some incredible basketball from now until then. This stretch will help plant the seeds (pun intended) for the NCAA Tournament. Conference tournament season will be wild.
Who Will Win the Biggest Games
It’s a big weekend in college hoops, and we’re introducing expected quad wins and record value before revealing our college basketball predictions to get you ready. It’s a sometimes awkward interrogation that takes place each year on a Sunday in March. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee chairman makes a TV appearance or two and attempts to justify the group’s decision-making when it comes to any perceived snubs and seeding mishaps.
Expected Quad Wins
Grab a coffee and pull up a chair by the fire. We’re explaining TRACR, expected quad wins and record value – three staples of our college basketball analysis. Let’s start with the foundation of all this, which is our TRACR model. TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency metric trained on over 15 years of college basketball data that looks at how good a team is on every possession relative to how good its opponent is.
NBA Predictions 2023-24
Our NBA predictions 2023-24 are updated during every game throughout the season. How our projection model works: It incorporates each team’s adjusted team ratings, win-loss record and strength of schedule throughout the season to date and our supercomputer simulates the remaining schedule to produce our season-long NBA predictions. Adjusted team ratings are important because they normalize performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers.
NFL Predictions 2023
Our NFL predictions 2023 are updated after every scoring play throughout the season. How our projection model works: Rather than being a simulator of future games, it calculates projections by looking at each team’s quarterback and EVE (efficiency vs. expected) performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.
College Football Playoff Potential
In a 2022 podcast, Mike Leon and I discussed something called our playoff potential rating. This new metric combines a team’s overall TRACR rating with its record. Adding TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) helps evaluate how the rest of the season might pan out for every team. The idea is this – suppose the best team in the nation played every other team’s schedule. How often would the best team match or exceed the other team’s actual record?
NFL Predictions 2023
Our NFL predictions 2023 are updated after every scoring play throughout the season. How our projection model works: Rather than being a simulator of future games, it calculates projections by looking at each team’s quarterback and EVE (efficiency vs. expected) performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.
How Changes to TRACR Impact the College Football Rankings
The long and painful wait is over. College football has returned. For many, college football is one of the most thrilling sports to watch, especially when your alma mater is doing well, when there are exciting teams playing each other, or when it is a Tuesday and you just want to watch some football. It can also be the most heartbreaking sports – one bad game could kick a team out of the College Football Playoff or a New Year’s 6 bowl game.
Final Four Predictions: Why Each Team Can Win the Men's and Women's Tournament
OK raise your hand – who had this Final Four going into the tournament? Yeah, didn’t think so. I saw a few brackets on ESPN that had the top four – quite impressive! Personally, I was distraught on Sunday since I had both Creighton and Texas in my Final Four, but oh well. It is the first time ever where no Final Four teams are a top-3 seed. We are also guaranteed to have a mid-major in the championship game with the winner of San Diego State and FAU! Fun stuff.
Sweet 16 Predictions: Which Teams Are Projected to Reach the Elite Eight and Beyond?
Was this the craziest weekend in the history of March Madness? Quite possibly. We have 15th-seeded Princeton in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16. We saw a 16 seed win for just the second time in tournament history – and Fairleigh Dickinson nearly made it to the Sweet 16 as well! Purdue and Kansas are out. Marquette and Arizona are out. Just when we thought that Furman would be the craziest upset of the tournament, we got more chaos. And boy, it has been fun.
2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win the Women's Bracket?
March Madness is the most exciting time of the year, full stop. While almost all of us make brackets for the men’s bracket, I suggest making one for the women’s too. Why? Well, it truly has been one of the best seasons of women’s college basketball in recent memory. South Carolina is going for a perfect season. The big names in women’s basketball are back, but there are also new faces ready to make a deep run. Aliyah Boston, Caitlin Clark and Maddy Siegrist are incredible to watch.
2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness?
NCAA Tournament Quick Hits Our model gives Houston the best chance of winning March Madness 2023 at 13.4%, followed by Alabama (10.8%), UConn (6.9%) and Gonzaga (6.4%). According to TRACR, Houston (33.8%), Alabama (30.4%), UCLA (23.0%) and Gonzaga (22.5%) have the highest probabilities of reaching the Final Four. Believe it or not, Gonzaga – not a No. 1 seed – has the highest probability of advancing to the Sweet 16 at 66.4%. It’s time.
NCAA March Madness Predictions: Our Conference Tournament Projections
I can almost taste it. The next Sunday is Selection Sunday. Don’t panic. Greg Gumbel will be our guide soon. It is hard to believe that we will have plenty of basketball from now until the bracket is revealed, but that’s the beauty of March. The second weekend of conference tournament play is here. Who will advance? Who will fall and barely miss the NCAA Tournament? Will the bubble burst?
March Madness Begins: Our NCAA Conference Tournament Projections
Should teams foul when leading by three points in the closing seconds? The answer should be yes. Michigan State and Wisconsin learned that the hard way this weekend. Or in some cases, it just comes down to guarding the best player before they hit the 3 (Caitlin Clark!!). This is especially true now that it is men’s basketball conference tournament season. Winners of each conference tournament gets a bid into the NCAA Tournament.
NCAA March Madness Predictions: Our Conference Tournament Projections
Should teams foul when leading by three points in the closing seconds? The answer should be yes. Michigan State and Wisconsin learned that the hard way this weekend. Or in some cases, it just comes down to guarding the best player before they hit the 3 (like Caitlin Clark did in women’s basketball). This is especially true now that it is men’s basketball conference tournament season. Winners of each conference tournament get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.
Blind Resumes: Which Bubble Teams Deserve an NCAA Tournament Bid?
Perhaps your team is well on its way to the NCAA Tournament, poised to earn one of the top seeds. Or maybe you’ve tuned out because your team has had a rough year. Some teams’ fates, however, will still depend on these next few weeks. With 36 at-large bids, there are many teams looking to fight their way into one of the final spots in the tournament. Yes, it’s time to take a look at which tourney hopefuls have played their way onto what’s known as the bubble.
Boydetology: Predicting Major Conference Tournament Teams Plus Introducing Women's TRACR
For Valentine’s Day, I took my girlfriend out to dinner, to see puppies, and even made her a cake. But don’t worry, that did not stop me from watching a double overtime thriller between Providence and Creighton. Oh boy, we are so close to the madness in March. Selection Sunday is less than a month away and conference tournaments begin in a few weeks. Now is a good time to focus on who we might see in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, it is time for some Boydetology.
Which Teams Are Projected to Finish With the Best Records in College Basketball?
There’s been plenty of excitement here in the regular season, but we are nearing ever so closer to the madness. We have gotten deep into college basketball’s regular season, and some teams and standouts have risen to national prominence. The Big 12, to no one’s surprise, is a juggernaut. The Big East has been better, especially with Marquette and Xavier improving. Some teams, like Florida Atlantic, seem ready to sweep their conference tournaments and soar into March Madness.
How Seriously Should We Take the AP Voting in College Basketball? Original
Teams ranked in the AP Top 25 are 107-51 against conference foes that are unranked this season. That record is 51-37 against such teams when the ranked team is on the road. While we should not be surprised that the ranked teams are indeed better, these records go to show that an unranked team, especially when backed by a home crowd, can match up well against ranked foes.
Impending Madness: Which Conference Has Emerged as the Best in College Basketball?
With just two months to go before Selection Sunday, we’re getting into the meat and potatoes of conference play in Division I. Now is the time for teams to prove to the college basketball world that they can compete in the NCAA Tournament. With over 350 teams to cover, it is difficult to track every single team in the country. That is where TRACR comes in.
National Championship Prediction: What to Watch for in the TCU-Georgia CFP Title Game
From back-and-forth touchdowns by Michigan and TCU to Georgia making an epic comeback and advancing when Ohio State missed a last-second field-goal attempt, we saw two of the best bowl games in recent memory. Now it comes down to this at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Georgia Bulldogs versus the TCU Horned Frogs in the national title game. Both Big Ten teams are out. Will Georgia win back-to-back CFP national championship games, or will TCU find yet another way to win?
College Football Playoff Predictions: Which Teams Will Advance to the National Championship?
It’s the big kahunas, the head honchos, the bee’s knees of football, the cat’s pajamas… OK, you get the idea. It’s the College Football Playoff, and we’re using our TRACR mode to project which teams will advance to the national championship game. This may be one of the closest playoffs we have seen in quite some time. Georgia is the No. 1 seed, but the Bulldogs play an Ohio State squad with the highest offensive TRACR.
Conquering Bowl Mania, Part II: Our TRACR College Football Bowl Projections
FBS Dec 17, 2022 College football bowl season is underway! After predicting the outcome for the early half of bowl games, we’re ready to give our predictions for everything in the second half. We’re doing this using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which is a net efficiency metric that evaluates how well a team performs based on who they play.
College Football Preview | Time for Bowl Season
FBS Dec 16, 2022 The Analyst's NFL & College Football Data Day College Football Preview | Time for Bowl Season 00:00 / 00:36:07 Acast Amazon Apple Podcasts Deezer Google Podcasts Podchaser Spotify Stitcher All good things have to come to an end, at least for this year. So why not join our Data Day panel for one last college football preview? Mike Leon and Evan Boyd are going out in style though, looking ahead to the bowl season and picking out four of the games that you NEED to watch.
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