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Articles by Evan Ryser
MNI POLICY: AI Buildout Emerges As Top Inflation Risk For Fed
You are missing out on very valuable content. The AI investment boom has unexpectedly emerged as the predominant inflation risk for the Federal Reserve by fueling massive demand for resources that could last years before productivity gains expand supply, raising the prospect of rates staying hig...
MNI INTERVIEW: Pressure on Census Bureau Poses Risks To Data
You are missing out on very valuable content. Political pressure on the U.S. Census Bureau poses heightened risks to the quality of market-moving indicators such as retail sales and durable goods orders, though important safeguards remain, the bureau's former Associate Director for Research and ...
MNI: MOST FED OFFICIALS SEE ANOTHER HIKE THIS YEAR - MINUTES
MNI: MOST FED OFFICIALS SEE ANOTHER HIKE THIS YEAR - MINUTES * MOST FED OFFICIALS SEE ANOTHER HIKE THIS YEAR - MINUTES * MNI: ALL PARTICIPANTS VIEWED HIKE AS APP...
FED: Instant Answers: Most Officials See Another Hike Likely By Year End
* Did participants discuss reducing the number of regularly scheduled policy-decision meetings to ... Want to read more?
MNI INTERVIEW: Services Prices Show No Sign of Slowing - ISM
The U.S. services sector is holding up amid supply chain snarls even as price pressures show no sign of easing, Institute for Supply Management services chair Steve Miller told MNI Monday. The ISM services index fell 0.5 percentage point in Septembe...
MNI INTERVIEW: ISM Chief Says Risks Tilted To The Downside
MNI INTERVIEW: ISM Chief Says Risks Tilted To The Downside U.S. manufacturing expanded again in September but risks are tiled to the downside as price pressures mount, Institute for Supply Management manufacturing chair Susan Spence told MNI Thursday. "I'm tending to be more concerned, even though we're in ...
MNI POLICY: Warsh Regime Change Strategy Starts To Reshape Fed
Kevin Warsh is putting his mark on the Federal Reserve as he lays the groundwork for regime change at the central bank, though the most profound shifts are months away and unlikely to shape the current course of monetary policy. Some easy-fix change...
MNI: Fed's Williams - One More Hike Late This Year Reasonable
New York Fed President John Williams on Tuesday said it was reasonable to think that the central bank might need to raise interest rates one more time at the end of the year to help bring down inflation risks. "The Fed defines price stability as 2% ...
MNI POLICY: Fed In No Hurry But Committed To Taming Inflation
Federal Reserve officials do not appear to be in a hurry to increase interest rates, or worried that they have fallen behind the curve. Instead they are signaling a considered and deliberate approach to further tightening after raising the fed funds...
MNI INTERVIEW: US Debt Path Needs Reform - Morningstar DBRS
U.S. Department of the Treasury You are missing out on very valuable content. The United States could face a debt downgrade in coming years if lawmakers in Washington don't make meaningful changes to the path of America's projected debt pile, according to Morningstar DBRS Senior Vice President Michael Heydt. "The key concern ...
MNI FED WATCH: Fed Leans Toward Another Rate Hike This Year
You are missing out on very valuable content. Federal Reserve officials look inclined to raise interest rates once more this year and potentially another time early next year, according to new dot plot projections that suggest Wednesday's interest rate hike was the start of a limited tightening ...
MNI: Fed Hike A Closer Call Than Market Thinks - Ex-Officials
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point at the conclusion of its meeting this week, but the odds of that are closer to even than all-but-certain, and projections for additional tightening will be limited, fo...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fast Services Growth Augurs Renewed Hiring- ISM
U.S. services activity sped up in August as demand surged and costs remained elevated, while workers scrambled to keep up with orders in a way that suggests employment will expand again soon, Institute for Supply Management services chair Steve Mille...
MNI INTERVIEW: ISM Chief Concerned About Factory Slowdown
You are missing out on very valuable content. U.S. manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in August and could slow even further in coming months, Institute for Supply Management manufacturing chair Susan Spence told MNI Tuesday. "I'm picturing a warning flag," she said in an interview. "The ou...
RPT-MNI: Warsh Puts Hikes On Table But Not Assured
RPT-MNI: Warsh Puts Hikes On Table But Not Assured You are missing out on very valuable content. (Repeats story first published on Aug 29) Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin's Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, which flagged high inflation as a primary focus for the Fed, intimated a possible need for tighter monetary policy but did not commit to...
MNI: Warsh Puts Hikes On Table But Not Assured - Ex-Officials
MNI: Warsh Puts Hikes On Table But Not Assured - Ex-Officials You are missing out on very valuable content. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin's Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, which flagged high inflation as a primary focus for the Fed, intimated a possible need for tighter monetary policy but did not commit to actual rate increases, former Fed official...
MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-BLS Chief - AI Impact On Labor Small So Far
Labor markets all over the world are on the cusp of being affected by AI, but impacts in America are limited so far, former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer told MNI, warning that policymakers need to be ready for a variety of...
MNI: Warsh Needs To Restore Confidence, Former Officials Say
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh needs to make clear in his Jackson Hole speech what might lead to him to raise interest rates this year in order to win back market confidence, even if he fails to commit to a pre-specified rate path in keeping wi...
MNI INTERVIEW: Sept Hike Could Hinge On Warsh Speech - Sheets
You are missing out on very valuable content. The Federal Reserve is likely comfortable with holding interest rates for some time, but market reaction to Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday could force a hike, the former director of the Division of International Finance at the Fed ...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed On Hold For 'Quite Some Time' - Wright
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates where they are for a while, with a keen eye on incoming monthly prices measures as a test for whether the central bank might need to raise rates, Johns Hopkins University economist Jonathan Wright,...
MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-CBO Chief Says Yields Will Likely Rise More
Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields will likely continue to rise further over time as the base of demand shifts to more price-sensitive buyers, issuance continues unabated, and Fed communications add to volatility, the former director of the non-partisa...
MNI BRIEF: Daly Says Treasury Yield Jump Part Of Global Move
You are missing out on very valuable content. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Thursday the jump in long-term Treasury yields is part of a global trend with little implication for monetary policy, which she said is "in a good place" at a "very slightly restrictive level." ...
MNI INTERVIEW: AI Exacerbates Job, GDP Volatility - Fed's Sly
You are missing out on very valuable content. The AI boom could cause sharper, less predictable swings in productivity, employment and growth than in past shocks like the dot-com boom, and will make it harder for policymakers to stabilize business cycle fluctuations, Kansas City Federal Reserve ...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed On Hold Through Next Year - Groen
You are missing out on very valuable content. The Federal Reserve will likely refrain from raising interest rates through next year, even though elevated price pressures warrant tighter monetary policy, former New York Fed economist Jan Groen told MNI. "If we're going to have a rate hike this y...
MNI: Inflation Expectations Steady, Labor Views Mixed - NY Fed
You are missing out on very valuable content. The New York Fed's median measures of consumer inflation expectations were steady in July, according to the bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations, with households expressing mixed views about the labor market. One-year-ahead inflation expectations ...
MNI: Musalem-Fed Must Put 'Meaningful Restraint' On Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said Thursday it is crucial for the central bank to restrain underlying inflation that is too high, rather than allowing higher prices in the hope for faster productivity growth in the futur...
MNI: Fed's Cook Says Prepared To Hike Rates If Necessary
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said Wednesday the central bank could need to hike borrowing costs to bring down inflation if there are not signs of continued disinflation soon. "Inflation is too high, and I consider the risks to the inflation si...
MNI INTERVIEW: Services Growth Firm, But So Are Prices- ISM
You are missing out on very valuable content. The U.S. services sector in showed resilience in activity and demand last month, even as costs remained elevated amid ongoing supply chain pressures and employment was subdued, Institute for Supply Management services chair Steve Miller told MNI Wedn...
MNI: Schmid Says Fed Needs Tighter Policy To Tame Inflation
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid said on Tuesday inflation is too high and bringing it down will require tighter monetary policy. "Inflation is too high. Given that price stability is the Fed's responsibility and within the Fed's co...
MNI INTERVIEW: US Manufacturing Hits 4-Year High, Set For More
U.S. manufacturing in July expanded at its fastest pace in over four years and firms are laying the foundation for even faster growth, Institute for Supply Management manufacturing chair Susan Spence told MNI. "I am really excited about this report,...
MNI POLICY: Warsh Task Forces Will Need To Woo FOMC Skeptics
MNI POLICY: Warsh Task Forces Will Need To Woo FOMC Skeptics You are missing out on very valuable content. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's star-studded task forces face heavy lifting to overcome institutional inertia and win over skeptical members of the FOMC. While some of Warsh's top policy priorities like revising or scrapping the Summary of Ec...
MNI POLICY: Fed Inclined To Hike Despite CPI Breathing Room
You are missing out on very valuable content. Federal Reserve officials are increasingly worried they will have to raise interest rates later this year despite cooler-than-expected June inflation readings, and even a single hot report could trigger a hike. Last week's benign June data create so...
MNI: Fed Announces Warsh Task Force Leaders, Objectives
You are missing out on very valuable content. The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced the leadership and objectives of the five task forces recently announced by Chair Kevin Warsh, setting up a system with three external members independently co-leading each task force that will be supported b...
MNI INTERVIEW: US Services Sturdier As Iran Risks Recede - ISM
The U.S. services sector held up well in June and the expansion is set to continue as risks from the conflict in the Middle East recede and input cost growth moderates, Institute for Supply Management services chair Steve Miller told MNI Monday. The...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Will Be On Hold As Oil Shock Unwinds- Levy
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates on hold as the oil shock from the Middle East conflict unwinds and a temporary drop in prices raises the real fed funds rate, Mickey Levy, an outside advisor to several Fed Banks, told MNI. "I dou...
MNI INTERVIEW: Price Falls Supports US Factory Growth - ISM
Falling energy prices are likely to support ongoing growth and potentially fresh hiring in coming months for a manufacturing sector that experienced a steadying of growth last month, Institute for Supply Management manufacturing chair Susan Spence to...
MNI BRIEF: Fed's Warsh Says Inflation Risks Have Come Down
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday gave no hints about the path of monetary policy, but noted that risks of higher inflation have receded, while again committing to the 2% inflation target. Warsh declined to give any signal as to what...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Independence Still On Shaky Ground - Judge
You are missing out on very valuable content. A pair of U.S. Supreme Court rulings Monday on the president's ability to fire officials at independent agencies do not guarantee future Federal Reserve independence and leave Governor Lisa Cook vulnerable to further attempts to remove her, Columbia ...
FED: Instant Answers: Fed Split On Hike In '26; Median 3.6% In '27
* Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum: 3.75% * Number of dissenters in favor of a hike: ZERO; vote unan... Want to read more?
MNI: Fed Dots To Show Steady Rates For 2026 - Ex-Staff
Federal Reserve projections for interest rates are set to float upward this week, with the median likely to show steady policy in the second half of the year before some modest easing in 2027, former Fed staffers told MNI. The central bank's fresh S...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Seen Pulling Guidance On Rates - English
You are missing out on very valuable content. Federal Reserve policymakers are likely to remove interest rate guidance from their policy statement next week, and new Chair Kevin Warsh could announce reviews of the central bank's communications and the balance sheet, former director of the Fed Bo...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Needs To Signal Ready To Hike-Baumeister
You are missing out on very valuable content. The Federal Reserve needs to send a signal that it stands ready to raise interest rates if necessary, with heightened risks that inflation expectations could de-anchor, Chicago Fed advisor and economics professor Christiane Baumeister told MNI. "The...
MNI INTERVIEW: Rising Costs Could Test US Factory Growth-ISM
The U.S. manufacturing sector gained momentum in May, expanding at the fastest pace in four years, though the prospect that rising prices could sap demand muddled the outlook, Institute for Supply Management manufacturing chair Susan Spence told MNI ...
MNI: Powell Says Fed Credibility Hinges On Policy Independence
Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell on Sunday said the central bank does not take politics into account when considering setting monetary policy and warned that if any administration can fire Fed officials over policy differences then the central ...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Regional Banks Key To Independence - Judge
The Federal Reserve's distinct regional design that counterbalances its Washington board is vital to the institution's accountability and the central bank will need to lean in to its regional structure to help preserve its independence, Kathryn Judge...
MNI: FED: MANY PREFERRED REMOVING EASING BIAS IN FED STATEMENT
* FED: MANY PREFERRED REMOVING EASING BIAS IN FED STATEMENT * MAJORITY SEE HIKES APPROPRIATE IF INFL...
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Is Firmly On Hold For Some Time - Sheets
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates on hold for some time, with a higher and more prolonged oil price trajectory making a rise in interest rates more probable, the former director of the Division of International Finance at the Fed B...
MNI INTERVIEW: US Services Growth Still Largely Intact - ISM
You are missing out on very valuable content. The U.S. services sector in April held up well and the expansion is set to continue despite rising input costs, with a surge in AI-related activity offsetting weakness in other areas, Institute for Supply Management services chair Steve Miller told M...
MNI INTERVIEW: Capitol Hill To Complicate Warsh's Fed Reforms
Federal Reserve Chair-designate Kevin Warsh will take the helm later this month with limited political support, making it harder for him to lead and reform one the most important economic institutions in the world, Bharat Ramamurti, former deputy dir...
MNI BRIEF: Senate Panel Advances Warsh To Be Fed Chair
You are missing out on very valuable content. The Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday approved Kevin Warsh's nomination to become the next Federal Reserve chair, a crucial step toward confirmation. The panel voted 13 to 11 to advance Warsh to the full Senate, where Republicans hold a majority...
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