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Articles by Fatemeh Aman
War, Pressure, and Fractures: How Foreign Attacks Are Testing Iran’s Stability
Foreign military strikes on Iran have revived debates about the country’s internal stability, the possibility of fragmentation, and the future direction of its political system. At the same time, the attacks have exposed deep divisions among Iranians themselves. While some view the strikes as blows against a regime they despise, others experience them as a painful assault on the homeland.
An Interview on Revolution, War, and the Iranian Dead End
As frustration with Iran’s political system deepens, calls for its removal have grown more radical. Some now argue that only foreign military action can bring change. Others warn that war would devastate society. In this interview, Fatemeh Aman challenges both views, arguing that history offers no reassuring model for regime change in Iran. Q: Many people calling for revolution in Iran invoke historical examples. Why do you think those comparisons are misleading?
Why Iran’s Subsidy Reform Keeps Stalling
In Iran, subsidy reform appears simple until one examines the reality of what it actually touches. While the issue seems purely economic on paper—with the state selling fuel, electricity, water, and basic goods at prices lower than their actual cost—the implications are far-reaching. Deeply discounted pricing helps households survive, especially during inflationary periods, yet simultaneously creates waste, encourages overuse, makes smuggling profitable, and drains public finances.
When the Gulf Heats Up, India Is the First to Pay
A new US-Iran crisis in the Persian Gulf need not escalate into a full-scale war to harm India. The fear that the region is sliding into an escalatory cycle in which markets, shipping companies, and insurers begin pricing in the worst-case scenario is enough to create problems for New Delhi, whether in the form of inflationary pressures, higher shipping costs and insurance premiums, and diaspora anxiety. India’s exposure to Gulf instability is structural.
When a State Stops Governing and Starts Enduring: An Interview on Iran’s Crackdown
Since early December, Iran has entered a new phase of unrest and state violence. What began as anger over daily economic pressure spread quickly across cities and social groups. By late December, the state’s response shifted from intimidation to open force. Arrests surged. Live fire was reported. Families began describing a second battle after the protests themselves. Finding the injured. Retrieving bodies. Burying the dead under surveillance.
Iran’s Protests and the Limits of Governing Through Fear
Home International Irans protests and the limits of governing through fear The protests in Iran, this time in regions long considered politically quiet, reflect slow corrosion of a society consumed by internal control Fatemeh Aman Updated on: 13 January 2026 12:41 pm Updated on: 13 January 2026 12:41 pm Activists take part in a rally supporting protesters in Iran at Lafayette Park, across from the White House, in Washington, Sunday Photo: AP/ Jose Luis Magana Activists take part in a rally...
Iran’s Lost Opportunities in Central Asia
By the mid-2010s, Iran’s relationship with Central Asia had reached a quiet plateau. There was no dramatic rupture. Diplomatic ties remained intact. Trade continued at modest levels. High-level visits persisted. Yet Iran was no longer included in strategic planning or regional coordination. Central Asian states engaged Tehran as a secondary partner, useful in specific contexts but peripheral to broader regional agendas. Iran did not lose Central Asia to a single rival.
The Quiet Omani Port Reshaping India’s Regional Strategy
India’s expanding presence along Oman’s coastline has unfolded without announcements, declarations, or diplomatic spectacle. Indian naval vessels have been making increasingly regular port calls to Oman, framed as routine deployments and professional exchanges rather than strategic statements. One such long-range training deployment, acknowledged by India’s Ministry of Defence, described Indian Navy ships arriving in Muscat for engagements with the Royal Navy of Oman.
What Has Iran Gained from BRICS?
When Iran joined the BRICS last January, the government called it proof that the Islamic Republic had survived one of the world’s longest isolation campaigns. “The enemy failed in its policy and strategy of isolating Islamic Iran,” then-President Ebrahim Raisi said. On state TV, the announcement played like a homegrown victory parade. For the leadership, the moment meant more than symbolism: it felt like re-entry after decades of sanctions and exclusion. Yet the celebration carried irony.
Iran Re-Edits Its Revolution
It was a gray afternoon in Tehran when a new mural appeared near Darvazeh Dolat, a crowded crossroads where the metro empties streams of commuters into streets heavy with exhaust and drizzle. The image showed a young soldier in uniform, backlit by green light, his eyes lifted toward a promise that no one could name. Beneath him, a slogan read: “We give our lives so the homeland endures.” A few people glanced up. Most walked past. Phones glowed in their hands, umbrellas bumped shoulders.
Why Iran Missed Out on Central Asian Connectivity
For most of the past three decades, Iran assumed that its geographic position would eventually draw Central Asia southward. The argument was simple. If the region wanted reliable access to the Indian Ocean and the Gulf, the most logical path ran through Iranian territory. This idea circulated so often in Tehran that it became part of the country’s strategic vocabulary. The turning point came with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Afghanistan’s Water Power: Between Iran and Pakistan
Afghanistan is often described as landlocked, but in hydrological terms, it is upstream of two major states. Its rivers descend toward Pakistan in the east and Iran in the west, feeding the Kunar-Kabul-Indus and Helmand-Hamun basins. Geography has made Afghanistan a gatekeeper of water—a form of leverage that the Taliban now understands more clearly than any previous government.
A Republic of Relatives: Why Iran’s Rulers Still Stand
In October 2025, a leaked video of a lavish Tehran wedding, showing the daughter of Ali Shamkhani, former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, wearing a low-cut gown and entering a grand hall on her father’s arm, set off a wave of anger. The clip surfaced just as the government had deployed 80,000 new police to patrol the “morality” of Iranian women. The video exposed more than hypocrisy. It revealed how Iran’s revolution has hardened into a kinship system.
Future Center - Fatemeh Aman
Fatemeh Aman International journalist and analyst
Future Center - The Gwadar-Chabahar Standoff
Introduction: The Gwadar-Chabahar Dynamic The involvement of two global powers in projects situated within a proximity of just over 100 miles presents a notable geopolitical dynamic: the Gwadar port in Pakistan, spearheaded by China, and the Chabahar port in Iran, backed by India. The question arises: Will the enduring rivalries between India and China extend to these strategically significant ports?
Flowing Dispute: Endless Water Wars between Iran and Afghanistan on the Helmand River
Water disputes between Iran and Afghanistan date back to as early as the 1870s. However, with the Taliban back in power in Kabul since 2021, the Helmand River has become an increasing topic of contention between the neighboring countries, particularly in recent months. A recent uptick in violence on the 580-mile border between Iran and Afghanistan came to a head on May 27, when border guards on both sides clashed, resulting in the death of one Taliban soldier and two Iranian guards.
Protests have brought Iran’s ethnic minorities & Persian majority closer
Nationwide protests under the banner “women, life, freedom” continue sporadically in Iran, the most recent marking 40 days since the execution of two protestors. Among the most important achievements of the movement so far has been the degree to which it has brought various ethnic groups closer, further legitimizing demands for greater rights for the millions of Iranians living at the periphery of the state.
Protests have brought Iran’s ethnic minorities & Persian majority closer
Nationwide protests under the banner “women, life, freedom” continue sporadically in Iran, the most recent marking 40 days since the execution of two protestors. Among the most important achievements of the movement so far has been the degree to which it has brought various ethnic groups closer, further legitimizing demands for greater rights for the millions of Iranians living at the periphery of the state.
Will Iran turn to al-Qaeda to combat Islamic State?
As the security situation in Afghanistan deteriorates and the Taliban seem incapable of defeating Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) and protecting religious minorities, Tehran is alarmed about the potential outbreak of a civil war next door and the chances that such a conflict might spill over into Iran. Under these circumstances, Iran may look for more effective means of countering ISKP. There are conflicting reports about Iran’s engagement with al-Qaeda and other Sunni extremist groups.
Neighbors position themselves as Taliban gains momentum in Afghanistan – Responsible Statecraft
How do Russia, Pakistan, China, Iran and India view what seems to be an inevitable Taliban rise? A regional expert weighs in. In light of the Taliban’s gains and growing speculation about the government’s collapse in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal, Responsible Statecraft asked Fatemeh Aman, non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who has written on Iranian, Afghan, and Pakistani affairs for over two decades, to respond to several questions.
How will regional actors approach Afghanistan peace talks? – Responsible Statecraft
In light of the increasing speculation about whether President Biden will withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan, Responsible Statecraft asked Fatemeh Aman, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, and writer on Iranian, Afghan, and other Middle Eastern affairs for over 20 years, to answer several questions relevant to the administration’s impending decisions.
New report shines light on dis- misinformation campaigns by US Gulf allies – Responsible Statecraft
At a hastily called press briefing on Wednesday, top U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials claimed that both Russia and Iran had gained access to personal voter information and that Iran had targeted Democrats in an information operation. According to officials, Iranian actors posed as members of the Proud Boys, a pro-Trump group with ties to white supremacists, and sent threatening emails to Democratic voters telling them to vote for Trump.
What ever happened to democracy promotion? – Responsible Statecraft
Democracy in the world is not doing well, and hasn’t been for the last several years. The watchdog organization Freedom House has recorded a 14-year decline in the political rights associated with democracy as well as other liberties that define a free, pluralistic society. Similarly, the Economist Intelligence Unit registered last year the worst score in its “Democracy Index” since it began compiling the figure in 2006.
Trump’s quiet war against civilians in Iran continues amid the pandemic – Responsible Statecraft
With people in Iran already suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic and crippling U.S. sanctions, the Trump administration earlier this month unveiled yet another set of sanctions that could restrict Iranians’ access to food and medicine even further. This move has gone largely unnoticed in the United States, with the first presidential debate passing without mention of Trump’s disastrous “maximum pressure” policy on Iran. But for Iranians, it is impossible to ignore.
Why Trump is absolutely right to get U.S. troops out of Somalia, and sooner the better – Responsible Statecraft
Why Trump is absolutely right to get U.S. troops out of Somalia, and sooner the better On October 13, President Trump reportedly told senior advisers to formulate plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Somalia. If carried out, this could signal the end of 27 years of on-and-off involvement by the United States in Somalia’s wars.
The Middle East Settles in for a Long, Hot, and Dangerous Summer - Responsible Statecraft
As the hot, virus-ridden summer of 2020 unfolds, it seems that the Middle East is a tinderbox that, at any time, could be set ablaze by the actions or miscalculations of any number of rivals. Still, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is unlikely to fall off the precipice of uncontained military confrontations.
Bahrain and the politics of COVID-19 - Responsible Statecraft
According to Johns Hopkins University, as of May 22, 2020, Bahrain has registered 8,000 positive cases of the coronavirus, with 12 deaths. The reported numbers are suspect, especially as Bahrain’s neighbors report much higher totals of positive cases— Saudi Arabia more than 67,000, Qatar over 40,000, the UAE over 26,000, and Kuwait more than 19,000.
Iranian spending spree on arms unlikely if UN embargo expires - Responsible Statecraft
Photo credit: saeediex / Shutterstock.com One of the most important outcomes of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — signed in 2015 between the U.S., Russia, China, Great Britain, France, Germany, and Iran — is the planned expiration of a U.N. arms embargo imposed on the Islamic Republic. The first major sanctions on Iran were adopted by the U.N. Security Council in March 2007, and reinforced in June 2010 with a U.N. embargo on the export of most major conventional weapons to Iran.
A health crisis as an incentive to foster regional cooperation in the Persian Gulf? - Responsible Statecraft
A woman with her daughter waiting to see a doctor in Tehran, March 2020 (Amir Mardani / Shutterstock.com) Iran has been the Middle Eastern epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Islamic Republic was hit early on into the global health crisis.
Fighting locust swarms is a regional matter - Responsible Statecraft
People in Burdwan Town, West Bengal/India stand in line to collect food grains at a ration shop during the lockdown period due to COVID-19 outbreak (Photo credit: Sanjoy Karmakar / Shutterstock.com) A locust outbreak, the worst in recent decades, is threatening millions of hectares of land in eight countries across the Horn of Africa, Middle East, and South Asia.
V-E Day Plus 75 - Responsible Statecraft
President Harry Truman announcing the end of World War II in Europe on May 8, 1945 (U.S. National Archives and Records Administration) The 75th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s surrender in May 1945 ought to prompt thoughtful reflection. For Americans, V-E Day, as it was then commonly called, marked the beginning of “our times.” The Covid-19 pandemic may signal that our times are now coming to an end. Tom Engelhardt, editor and proprietor of TomDispatch, was born less than a year prior to V-E Day.
Here we go again with the regime change - Responsible Statecraft
Photo credit: Nicky Urban / Shutterstock.com In a new Foreign Affairs article this week, Eric Edelman of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the Council on Foreign Relations’ Ray Takeyh argue that the United States should be using every tool of statecraft at its disposal to aid dissidents in Iran to overthrow the regime.
Coronavirus crisis: lessons for the Iranian government - Responsible Statecraft
Tehran, Iran – March 14 2020: people walking in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar wear protective masks to prevent contracting the virus. (Photo credit Amir Mardani / Shutterstock.com) Like much of the world, Iran is also engulfed by the deadly outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Thus far, 4,232 people have died and more than 60,000 Iranians have contracted the virus. The country is the epicenter of the disease in the Middle East.
Iran’s leaders should embrace Nowruz diplomacy - Responsible Statecraft
Iranians across the world, joined by communities in countries as diverse as Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, India, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, are celebrating the beginning of Persian New Year and the arrival of spring. Nowruz is a set of festivities that mark the Vernal Equinox and the commencement of the solar calendar year.
The new dangers of international enmity: How pandemics change the geopolitical calculus - Responsible Statecraft
Donald Trump signs an Executive Order reimposing sanctions on Iran that had been lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead) Those who fear and despise Iran have reason to be more afraid now than ever. For years, Tehran’s efforts to develop nuclear technology and field legions of loyal armed groups across the Middle East have fostered dread and rage among regional leaders and Washington officials.
Judgment Day for the national security state: The coronavirus and the real threats to American safety and freedom - Responsible Statecraft
The National Security Operations Center (Photo credit: National Security Agency via Wikimedia commons) Americans are facing “A Spring Unlike Any Before.” So warned a front-page headline in the March 13th New York Times. That headline, however hyperbolic, was all too apt. The coming of spring has always promised relief from the discomforts of winter. Yet, far too often, it also brings its own calamities and afflictions.
The coronavirus crisis is an opportunity to finally move past the post-WWII era - Responsible Statecraft
Photo credit: Marco Rubino / Shutterstock.com The COVID-19 outbreak has already begun to reshape life around the globe. In a diversity of countries, from South Korea to Italy to the People’s Republic of China, governments are scrambling to address and cure a pandemic the likes of which haven’t been seen since the so-called Spanish Flu of 1918-1920. Here in the United States, President Donald Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act — signed by President Harry S.
Is the COVID-19 crisis another nail in the coffin of the transatlantic alliance? - Responsible Statecraft
Photo credit: Frederic Legrand – COMEO / Shutterstock.com No matter how the COVID-19 crisis unfolds, one of its likely casualties may well be the transatlantic alliance that has binded the United States and European Union together since the end of the World War II.
Without international aid, the coronavirus crisis in Iran will spread throughout South Asia - Responsible Statecraft
New York, NY – September 24, 2019: Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan conducts press briefing during 74th General Assembly at U.N. Headquarters. Photo credit: lev radin / Shutterstock.com Saadi Shirazi, one of the prominent Iranian poets of the medieval period, once wrote, “Extending a hand in the hour of need is the mark of a true friend.” Iran is struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic and economic sanctions simultaneously, and all its friends are in trouble. Then who can help?
How to keep the coronavirus from hindering the peace process in Afghanistan - Responsible Statecraft
An Afghan health worker in protective gear checks the temperature of a woman before Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani inauguration as president, at the Presidential Palace in Kabul, Afghanistan March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Mohammad Ismail The coronavirus greatly complicates efforts to overcome the already significant obstacles to the implementation of the Afghan peace process foreseen in the U.S.-Taliban agreement signed in Doha on February 29.
Q&A: What the US-Taliban agreement means for Afghanistan and why Iran should be involved - Responsible Statecraft
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani (via Shutterstock) Now that some of the dust has settled from the U.S.-Taliban agreement, Fatemeh Aman, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, explains just what the deal means for the future of the Afghan government, what the regional implications are, and what the Iranians — despite being left out of the process — have to say about it: RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT: What are the prospects for the next steps envisioned under the...
Why America’s longest war has lasted so long - Responsible Statecraft
A U.S. Air Force Chinook helicopters, Kandahar Air Base. EPA PHOTO-OLIVIER MATTHYS It appears that the U.S. military expedition in Afghanistan, begun in the autumn of 2001, may finally be coming to an end. Significant hurdles still have to be overcome, involving among other things the Taliban having to meet a vague standard of reducing, though not ceasing, their military operations.
The Energizer Bunny temporarily runs out of juice - Responsible Statecraft
Blackwater USA Chief Executive Erik Prince swears in before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on security contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan on Capitol Hill in Washington October 2, 2007. REUTERS/Larry Downing (UNITED STATES) One thing about endless wars is that they don’t happen out of the blue. They are not a natural phenomenon. They need to be created, nurtured, and sustained to achieve that perfect sense of hopelessness and despair.
Opposing War with Iran is an Environmental Imperative - Responsible Statecraft
Anti-war protesters in San Francisco, CA, on January 18, 2020 (Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com) Popular culture is filled with many infamous villainous partnerships: Bonnie and Clyde, Sauron and Saruman, Darth Vader and Emperor Palpatine. As long as one thrives, the other survives. The climate crisis and militarism are the same.
Can Imran Khan Mediate the Persian Gulf Crisis?
by Fatemeh Aman In recent days, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has visited both Iran and Saudi Arabia amid reports that he’s been asked by U.S. President Donald Trump to mediate between the two Persian Gulf rivals and, potentially, between Iran and the United States. To better understand Khan’s potential role and what it might mean for Pakistan and the Middle East-South Asia region, LobeLog turned to our South Asia expert, Fatemeh Aman, to get her thoughts.
After Trump Calls Off Taliban Talks, What’s Next for Afghanistan?
by Fatemeh Aman President Trump’s abrupt cancellation of planned peace talks at Camp David between the Taliban and the Afghan government as part of a U.S. withdrawal plan seems to have had the immediate effect of ousting his national security adviser, John Bolton. But the larger implications of the latest foreign-policy surprise, particularly for prospects for a peace accord and the calculations of regional powers are still being assessed.
Iran Issues Rare Criticism of India over Kashmir
August 30, 2019 Iran’s Supreme Leader and a group of the country’s grand ayatollahs have taken a rare position on Kashmir and condemned India’s government for eliminating the area’s special status. In the past, Tehran has been careful to avoid antagonizing the government in New Delhi and has sought instead to bolster Iran-India ties and to balance Iran’s relations with India and Pakistan.
How Will Kashmir Affect the Afghan Peace Process?
by Fatemeh Aman Commentaries are calling India’s unilateral move to end the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir that had prevailed since India’s independence a geopolitical “earthquake.” A major geological earthquake normally has significant ripple effects as the affected tectonic plates adjust to major changes in their relationships to one another.
Can Pakistan Be the Friend Iran Needs?
April 30, 2019 With pressure mounting on Iran from US sanctions, Iran is placing heavy emphasis on its neighbors for trade and political support. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent visit to Iran has raised the question of whether Pakistan can be the friend Tehran needs to survive the Trump administration’s growing hostility.
Something Fishy Is Going on Between Iran and China (and Pakistan)
April 5, 2019 Two of Beijing’s close allies, Iran and Pakistan, have been increasingly impacted by China’s growing appetite for fish, both for domestic consumption and to supply its processed fish industry. Stricter regulations in Pakistan and an internal political fight in Iran could make it harder for China to expand its fishing industry into their waters.
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