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Mass Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants: Fiscal and Economic Effects It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP due to scale effects. We project that deportation also reduces wages of high-skill workers, compromising 63% of workers. Still, authorized low-skilled workers can see their wages increase but only if the deportation policy is permanently sustained after 4 years.
The Economic Effects of President Trump’s Tariffs Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) will reduce long-run GDP by about 6% and wages by 5%. A middle-income household faces a $22K lifetime loss. These losses are twice as large as a revenue-equivalent corporate tax increase from 21% to 36%, an otherwise highly distorting tax.Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs.
Fiscal and economic projections are crucial for informing public decision-makers who must plan for the future. In this online event, leading researchers at the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services, Congressional Budget Office, Social Security Administration, and the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School come together to discuss their own methodologies and those employed in AEI Senior Fellow Mark J. Warshawsky’s new working paper.
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