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Articles by Frederik Ducrozet
El BCE necesita una transmisión fluida y una transición ordenada
El Banco Central Europeo se encuentra una vez más en una coyuntura crítica ante una importante renovación de su consejo de gobierno. La institución se reúne este jueves tras haber surgido nuevas tensiones en los mercados de bonos europeos en las últimas semanas.
The ECB needs a smooth transmission and a smooth transition
The writer is head of strategy and macro research at Pictet Wealth Management The European Central Bank is once again at a critical...
Las consecuencias macroeconómicas de la guerra en Irán
La guerra en Irán y el riesgo de conflicto regional están sacudiendo los mercados financieros globales, con temor a un choque persistente de precios de la energÃa. Pero no es la década de 1970, ni 2022. La magnitud del impacto macroeconómico depende de la duración del conflicto, la persistencia del aumento de precios de la energÃa, expectativas de inflación y efectos de segunda ronda en los salarios.
Macro update: growth scare vs. recession risks
The July employment report in the US showed softer-than-expected job gains and a further rise in unemployment that triggered the Sahm rule. Recession concerns rose sharply with markets quick to price in around 125bps of cuts by year-end, and high odds of an inter-meeting cut before the September FOMC. We were already expecting a slowdown to below-trend growth in the US in H2, with downside risks. We now expect three 25bps rate cuts at the Sept, Nov, and Dec meetings.
No more excuses — central bankers need to get back ahead of the curve
The writer is head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management Central banks have been traumatised by the great inflation...
Did the global easing cycle begin this week ?
By Frederik Ducrozet, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Pictet Wealth Management. Most developed central banks unambiguously confirmed their easing bias this week. The Swiss National Bank became the first to deliver a 25bp cut in this cycle. Against trend, the Bank of Japan hiked rates for the first time since 2007. We continue to expect the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to start cutting rates in June.
Did the global easing cycle begin this week?
Most central banks confirmed their easing bias. By Frederik Ducrozet, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Pictet Wealth Management. Most developed central banks unambiguously confirmed their easing bias this week. The Swiss National Bank became the first to deliver a 25bp cut in this cycle. Against trend, the Bank of Japan hiked rates for the first time since 2007. We continue to expect the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to start cutting rates in June.
El BCE cumple 25 años: probado y listo para lo que venga
Última hora en elEconomista.es15 Duisenberg y Trichet mantuvieron la inflación justo por debajo del 25 El Banco Central Europeo, con 25 años, ha alcanzado mayoría de edad. Pero es, con mucho, es el más joven de los principales bancos centrales y el único sin un gobierno federal a sus espaldas. En este tiempo ha navegado con éxito en la crisis de la euro zona, que amenazaba la existencia de la moneda única, con una reputación fortalecida, lo que ha ayudado a mejorar la cohesión e integridad.
Do central banks’ losses matter?
Several central banks have started to record financial losses as interest rates normalise rapidly following a decade of unconventional monetary policies and balance sheet expansion. Central banks’ losses are likely to increase further as the gap widens between the interest rate they pay on bank deposits and the return they get on the assets they hold. Monetary policy has always had a fiscal dimension. Central banks have generated large profits for their governments in the past 12 years.
Doves have strong case against premature ECB tightening
The writer is a senior strategist at Pictet Wealth Management The European Central Bank has signalled a scaling back of its Covid-19...
« This time is different » pour les banques centrales
Selon l’adage, « this time is different » seraient les quatre mots les plus dangereux dans le monde de la finance. Et pourtant, le défi qui attend les banques centrales lors des années à venir sera effectivement très différent de ceux qu’elles ont eus à relever depuis la crise financière de 2008 et pendant la pandémie. Le contexte macroéconomique, qui s’améliore mais traduit également de profonds changements structurels, appelle une révolution de politique économique et, notamment, ...
Le changement de cap de Christine Lagarde
« Il y a des décennies où rien ne se passe et des semaines où des décennies se produisent. » Cette citation de Lénine s’applique parfaitement aux semaines qui se sont écoulées depuis le début de la pandémie du Covid-19, notamment aux réponses de politiques économiques qui ont été déployées en urgence. En ce qui concerne la politique monétaire, les références à la grande crise financière de 2008-2009, qui a vu l’émergence de mesures ... À retrouver dans la revue Les plus récents
ECB faces crucial test of credibility
As markets seem prepared to call the European Central Bank’s bluff, we are left with fear and hope — that Mario Draghi and his successor...
Are French reforms for real? - Perspectives Pictet
Macronomics could well accelerate the closing of the growth gap with Germany and improve the outlook for French equities. The first major piece of President Emmanuel Macron’s agenda, the business- friendly labour market reform, was signed into law last month. Some Macron measures may have adverse effects in the short term and some others are not fully financed and difficult to quantify, but overall they should boost purchasing power, investment and productivity.
żCuántas probabilidades hay de 'Frexit'?
De hecho no pueden pasarse por alto las consecuencias de una victoria del FN en las elecciones parlamentarias en Francia el 17 y 18 de junio. Una victoria de la extrema derecha representaría un choque extraordinario para el propio país y la eurozona, aunque no creemos que condujera automáticamente a salida de Francia de la Unión Europea, no digamos a su desmantelamiento, ni a que Francia abandonara el euro.
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