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Articles by Gary Sick
9/11: watching the planes hit
13 Share It was a morning that made you think about back-to-school: sparkling sunlight with just a touch of chill in the air. I thought “you can see forever” and I knew I was right, sitting in a wall of windows thirty-four floors above Broadway, almost half way up the Empire State Building. The Human Rights Watch committee meeting droned on. I watched a plane come up the Hudson River and crash into the World Trade Center. Our meeting stopped.
The long shadow of Tehran: Why Washington is still flying blind
13 Share In my years serving on the National Security Council under Presidents Ford, Carter, and Reagan, I learned a difficult truth: the United States has a recurring tendency to mistake activity for strategy. Whether we are imposing “maximum pressure” or conducting targeted strikes, we often find ourselves reacting to the symptoms of our relationship with Iran rather than diagnosing the disease.
It’s All but Settled: The Reagan Campaign Delayed the Release of the Iranian Hostages
In 1991, a bipartisan special House task force, chaired by Democratic Representative Lee Hamilton with strong support from the vice chair, Republican Representative Henry Hyde, began probing the October Surprise. At the same time, skeptics attempted to debunk the story by focusing on the lack of proof that Casey was in Madrid. Because Hamilton’s committee could not establish that Casey was in Madrid, its report contained a lot of suspicious smoke but no smoking gun.
William Casey (Almost) Certainly Delayed the Release of Iran Hostages to Help Reagan
Forty-three years after the climactic events of 1980, the four of us—all steeped in the history of the Carter administration—believe that it’s time to move past conspiracy theories to hard historical conclusions about the so-called October Surprise.
William Casey (Almost) Certainly Delayed the Release of Iran Hostages to Help Reagan
Forty-three years after the climactic events of 1980, the four of us—all steeped in the history of the Carter administration—believe that it’s time to move past conspiracy theories to hard historical conclusions about the so-called October Surprise.
Revolution in Iran?
A sclerotic theocracy’s repression remains likely to prevail but by scrubbing sanctions and otherwise not meddling, the US can help.
Revolution in Iran?
Since at least 2009 and the “Green Revolution,” the young and middle-class population of Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its disgust with the aging clerical rulers who govern their lives. They march in the streets at risk of everything to denounce the brutal and inflexible dictatorship that abuses the revolutionary power given to them by the people in 1979.
How 'national narratives' shaped US-Iran relations
The authors of “Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the US-Iran Conflict” (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2022) said they had two principal objectives in writing this book: the first, as the title indicates, is to examine U.S.-Iran relations in the context of their respective national narratives; the second was to “construct a single narrative of the U.S.-Iran relationship.” These are ambitious goals, which turn out to be less complementary than one might imagine on first glance.
Iran’s Quest for Superpower Status
Since 1973 and the first oil shock, the center of gravity of Middle Eastern politics has been gradually shifting—from the eastern Mediterranean and the Arab-Israeli conflict toward the Persian Gulf and Iran.
Now is the time for a foreign policy overhaul – Responsible Statecraft
Our ability to manage the Middle East and Central Asia has reached a critical turning point in Afghanistan. We should heed that. The Biden administration missed its chance to undertake a fundamental reevaluation of US Middle East policy in its early honeymoon period. There were urgent domestic priorities, there was a world of repair work to be done on U.S. alliances, there was no national consensus on almost anything, and there was a raging global pandemic.
A Selective Partnership: Getting U.S.-Iranian Relations Right
Despite the deep political chasm that separates Iran and the United States, they have repeatedly tried to communicate. These two wary powers have made significant overtures to each other at least nine times since the end of the hostage crisis in 1981. First was the U.S.-Israeli initiative in 1985 (better known as the Iran-contra affair); most recently, in May 2006, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made a conditional offer of direct talks.
What the election of Ebrahim Raisi tells us about the future of Iran – Responsible Statecraft
With hardliners in control of all aspects of government, failure cannot be blamed on reformists. There is one thing to know about Iran’s recently elected president Ebrahim Raisi: he has been appointed to every job he has ever held, always by the Supreme Leader, or with his close approval. So he has never had to please anyone but his supreme patron. There is no doubt that Ayatollah Khamenei trusts and appreciates the loyalty of Mr. Raisi.
The Unhappy U.S. Occupation of Iraq - Responsible Statecraft
Remember how the George W. Bush administration sold its offensive war in Iraq, begun seventeen years ago? It wasn’t just about weapons of mass destruction and mythical alliances with terrorist groups. The war was also supposed to bring the blessings of freedom and democracy to the people of Iraq, who would be grateful to the United States for overthrowing their dictator.
Long-Term Gains Far Outweigh Short-Term Costs from Withdrawing the U.S. Military from the Middle East - Responsible Statecraft
50911-N-9885M-300 U.S. Army and Iraqi soldiers cross an intersection during a routine security patrol in downtown Tal Afar, Iraq … DoD photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Alan D. Monyelle, U.S. Navy. President Donald Trump and his administration came into office promising to stop “endless wars” in the Middle East. But like his predecessors, the president has found himself walking back this important strategic objective. Why?
Catch-22 in Afghanistan - Responsible Statecraft
Catch-22 in Afghanistan By David Isenberg It is not every day that an actual war imitates art, so when it does happen people should sit up and take note. And no, the case in point is not recent events in Iraq, where protests at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad led the United States to kill Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, leading people to speculate the U.S. is about to create its own “Wag the Dog” scenario. Instead, the example is Afghanistan.
Trump lit a fire by exiting the Iran Deal and poured gasoline on it by killing Soleimani
The US killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani is a major loss for Iran, but it also crosses an important line in the Middle East. US leaders and interests are now potential targets, and the fallout out is likely to be very damaging to the US presence in the region, writes Gary Sick. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. The first time I heard the name of Gen.
Trump lit a fire by exiting the Iran Deal and poured gasoline on it by killing Soleimani
The US killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani is a major loss for Iran, but it also crosses an important line in the Middle East. US leaders and interests are now potential targets, and the fallout out is likely to be very damaging to the US presence in the region, writes Gary Sick. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. The first time I heard the name of Gen.
Trump and his Team are Lying Their Way to War With Iran - Responsible Statecraft
People gather at the funeral of the Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani, top commander of the elite Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, and the Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who were killed in an air strike at Baghdad airport, in Baghdad, Iraq, January 4, 2020. REUTERS/Wissm al-Okili President Trump ordering the killing of Qassem Soleimani is troubling on several fronts.
Trump Lit a Fire by Exiting the Iran Deal & Poured Gasoline on it by Assassinating Soleimani - Responsible Statecraft
The first time I heard the name of General Qassem Soleimani mentioned as a possible president of Iran was during the last days of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency, perhaps about 2012. Later it was fashionable in some circles to speculate about a replacement for the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Schok: die drones komen nu ook onze kant op
Jarenlang hebben de Saoediërs straffeloos hun bommen kunnen afwerpen, ook op veel burgerlocaties. In hun meedogenloze luchtcampagne tegen de Houthi-strijdkrachten in het naburige Jemen werden ze voluit gesteund door de Verenigde Staten. De Houthi’s op hun beurt leken nauwelijks serieuze schade toe te kunnen brengen aan Saoedi-Arabië of aan voorzieningen die de Amerikaanse belangen behartigen.
The Global War on Terror's one-way pain is coming to an end
The Global War on Terror (GWOT) has operated from the start on the unspoken assumption that the enemy - usually scattered and primitive - was unable to strike back effectively. US drones keep watch 24 hours a day over al-Qaeda hideouts in the wilds of Waziristan, occasionally launching missiles at suspected leaders, with little worry about being shot down, much less about retaliation in kind. Al-Qaeda may mount a suicide attack, but American forces and their allies own the skies.
The drone attack on Saudi Arabia means the one-way pain of the war on terror is over
The Global War on Terror (GWOT) has operated from the start on the unspoken assumption that the enemy—usually scattered and primitive—was unable to strike back effectively. US drones keep watch 24 hours a day over al-Qaeda hideouts in the wilds of Waziristan, occasionally launching missiles at suspected leaders, with little worry about being shot down, much less about retaliation in kind. Al-Qaeda may mount a suicide attack, but American forces and their allies own the skies. Is that about to end?
The Days of One-Way Pain Are Over
Wreckage of a Houthi Qasef-1 drone (Wikimedia Commons) by Gary Sick The Global War on Terror (GWOT) has operated from the start on the unspoken assumption that the enemy—usually scattered and primitive—was unable to strike back effectively. U.S. drones keep watch 24 hours a day over al-Qaeda hideouts in the wilds of Waziristan, occasionally launching missiles at suspected leaders, with little worry about being shot down, much less about retaliation in kind.
Does might truly make right?
Despite the civilized terminology of modern international relations, the old rule that "might makes right" is very much alive and well in the interactions of states. Take the word "siege". It has a nice medieval ring to it, with images of armored knights planting their battle flags around some fortified town, trying to starve them into submission. But there are at least three full scale sieges going on in the Middle East today.
Does Might Truly Make Right?
by Gary Sick The Middle East has reverted to a kind of primitive savagery. The states of the region had historically treated their citizens with casual brutality, in the interest of preventing dissent, but the ferocious civil wars and interstate conflicts since the so-called Arab Spring in 2011 have introduced a new level of viciousness reminiscent of the Middle Ages.
The Wheels Are Coming Off
Mike Pompeo meets with Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (State Department via Flickr) by Gary Sick A series of events, some of which got little attention in the media, suggest that the wheels may be coming off the Trump administration’s Middle East policy. Admittedly, that policy is not very well articulated, and many knowledgeable observers would regard it as dysfunctional.
U.S. Iran Policy Gives Me Vertigo
by Gary Sick Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the entire U.S. government insist that the United States has authorization to strike Iran at will since, among other things, it temporarily sheltered some al-Qaeda leaders when the United States invaded Afghanistan. By this logic, Iran is subject to the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) that permits attacks on those who planned and carried out the 9/11 attacks.
Shredding the Iran deal would be a huge geopolitical mistake
In a crisis-racked Middle East, the Iran nuclear deal stands as a rare source of stability. Negotiated by the United States and the world's major powers, the agreement makes it impossible for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon while putting in place the world's most extensive inspections system ever negotiated. With this deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran effectively gave up sovereign control of its own nuclear resources for 10 to 25 years.
Roundtable 10-7 on Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy | ISSF
With the Trump administration debating whether to certify that Iran is complying with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), colloquially known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, this Roundtable on the tortuous path to its conclusion is timely. Our reviewers bring special expertise to the task.
Comment | Will Israel Really Attack Iran?
The answer is no, they will not. But you would never figure that out by reading the New York Times. The sensationalist article in the Sunday New York Times Magazine (January 29) adds to the hysteria surrounding U.S. and Israeli relations with Iran. Ronen Bergman, a columnist with the leading Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, concludes that Israel will probably attack Iran this year.
The Art of No Deal
In the past few weeks, President Trump has given the world an instructive look at his negotiating style, as he lurches dangerously through the international china shop. I’m not talking here about his attempt to intimidate the leader of North Korea or intervene in the quarrel between American allies in the Persian Gulf. Those have not gone well. Let’s focus instead on the Iranian nuclear deal, also known by its official initials JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
The Siege of Doha
There are several things that I find confounding about the current conflict within the GCC: First, as a member of the US policy team that first applied sanctions against Iran when our diplomats were being held hostage in Tehran, we drew the line at food and medicine. That has remained true in the succeeding 37 years.
The Siege of Doha
The Saudi/UAE led siege has taken drastic measures against Qatar which the US should feel uncomfortable with. Professor Sick assesses the implications of these measures and the reasons behind them. There are several things that I find confounding about the current conflict within the GCC: First, as a member of the US policy team that first applied sanctions against Iran when our diplomats were being held hostage in Tehran, we drew the line at food and medicine.
The Death of Rafsanjani in Iran
Based on my own observations over the years here are a few comments that seem worth adding to the flood of commentary. First, Rafsanjani was truly a pragmatist. He seemed to believe genuinely that Iran’s revolutionary system would survive only if it engaged with the outside world. There was never any doubt about his devotion to the system that he had done so much to shape. But he was willing to go beyond stale dogma in pursuit of rescuing a system that he recognized was performing very badly.
A Plague of Black Swans in the Middle East
In the parlance of political risk assessment, a Black Swan is an event regarded as highly improbable or even impossible before it happens. A Black Swan is not only surprising but has the capacity to disrupt or severely alter the anticipated course of events. Once a Black Swan is sighted, however, the expert community quickly adjusts to the new reality and begins to explain why, under the circumstances, a Black Swan was likely to appear and, perhaps, was even inevitable.
The Day After the JCPOA
Any evaluation of the Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, must consider three different time periods, each of which is roughly a generation.
Saudi Arabia's Widening War
With that power, the new regime almost immediately launched a military initiative in Yemen that will likely come back to haunt it and may set in motion forces that threaten its very survival. Saudi Arabia spends more per capita on its military and security forces than virtually any other country in the world, but that very expensive instrument had seldom been put to the test.
Saudi Arabia's Widening War
The level of turmoil in the Middle East is greater than at any other time in my nearly fifty years of watching this region. Amid this perfect storm comes the most dramatic shift in Saudi policy since at least World War II—marking a critical turning point in Saudi Arabia’s relations with its historical protector, the United States, and with its neighbors in the Middle East. The Saudi regime’s insistence on seeing threats to the Kingdom in fundamentally sectarian terms—Sunni vs.
The Deal with Iran: Five Arguments to Watch Out For
As the nuclear talks with Iran enter the final stretch, and as the media coverage reaches the point of hysteria, it is useful to step back a bit and offer a few observations about how to approach the kinds of revelations and arguments that we might expect in the coming days or weeks. Here are five things to watch out for. First, pay attention to definitions. People in a hurry–or people with an agenda–tend to speak in shorthand. If you don’t pay attention, that can be misleading.
The Danger of a Failed Iran Deal
In national security policy, you must always be careful what you wish for. Policies with short-term appeal often come with disagreeable longer-term consequences. And that may be exactly what is happening on Capitol Hill as politicians line up against a nuclear deal with Iran.
President Obama has wide, but not total, party backing
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The vast majority of Senate Democrats emerged from a two-hour meeting with White House chief of staff Denis McDonough fully supportive of President Barack Obama’s impending action to shield millions of undocumented immigrants. But there are still a few members of the Democratic Grumbling Caucus, who take little issue with the policy provisions but, instead, with how they are being enacted.
By Michael Horowitz Verified, Carol Felsenthal Verified, Sen. Ted Cruz, Paul Scharre, Carl Hampe, Gary Sick
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POLITICO
Verified
Dick Durbin on immigration: White House won't defer deportation of DREAMers' parents
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President Barack Obama’s immigration order stops short of deferring deportation of the parents of DREAMers because the White House believes it can not build one executive action on top of another, according to Sen. Dick Durbin.
By Michael Horowitz Verified, Carol Felsenthal Verified, Sen. Ted Cruz, Paul Scharre, Carl Hampe, Gary Sick
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POLITICO
Verified
Don't Let Iran Walk Away From the Table
Even if things don’t follow exactly the same course as 2005, it is reasonable to expect that a second diplomatic failure would strengthen hardliners in Iran, the United States and elsewhere, all of whom will proclaim that their doubts about the other side’s intentions have been vindicated. A harder line from Iran could see a return to producing and stockpiling 20-percent enriched uranium, and a reduction in the unprecedented level of international inspections it has recently permitted.
Mitch McConnell promises forceful immigration response
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Incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promised on Thursday morning that Congress will respond forcefully in 2015 to President Barack Obama’s imminent executive action that will defer deportation for millions of undocumented immigrants.
By Michael Horowitz Verified, Carol Felsenthal Verified, Sen. Ted Cruz, Paul Scharre, Carl Hampe, Gary Sick
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POLITICO
Verified
Don't Let Iran Walk Away From the Table
As a November 24 deadline looms for a nuclear deal with Iran, some influential voices in Washington—including President Obama’s former Iran adviser Dennis Ross—have argued that “muddling through” without an agreement, postponing things yet again, is preferable to signing an imperfect deal. The premise of that argument—that we all still have time, and a better deal could be achieved at a later date—is almost certainly wrong.
John Mearsheimer And Gary Sick On U.S.-Iran Relations
Editor’s Note: The following interview with Gary Sick and John Mearsheimer was conducted by Arash Azizi. Mr. Azizi is an Iranian-born journalist based in London, U.K. His work has appeared in many publications in Canada and Iran, including the Toronto Star, Macleans, Dominion, Shahrvand, Sharq, Aseman, Merhname and Kargozaran. Mr. Azizi was International Editor for Kargozaran, a reformist newspaper with one of the highest circulations in Iran before it was closed down by Iran’s hardliners.
Netanyahu's crying wolf on Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not a subtle man. When he has an objective in mind, he is not above resorting to hyperbole, exaggeration, or apocalyptic scenarios to make his point. He has been crying wolf nearly as long as he has been in politics. For a very good reason: It works. And it works. And it works. It is not hard to understand the logic of this assertion. Israel itself managed to develop a nuclear weapons capability in absolute secrecy in only a few years. It was not alone.
Opinion | The Election Story of the Decade (Published 1991)
Opinion|The Election Story of the Decade https://www.nytimes.com/1991/04/15/opinion/the-election-story-of-the-decade.html Send any friend a story As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. Anyone can read what you share.
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