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Articles by Georgi Asatrian
The Global South in Ascendance: The Waning Influence of Western Powers
Global instability is today the defining characteristic of world politics. The liberal international order that has shaped global affairs is steadily disintegrating. It is being replaced by a system that many describe as multipolar. What this new system will ultimately look like remains unknown. Moreover, it is unclear whether it will prove to be more stable, more equitable, or more balanced. At the same time, the ongoing transformation of the international system is evident to many observers.
The Advancing Multipolarity and Its Emerging Leaders
The development of relations within the Global South has been proceeding steadily and along an advancing trajectory. Without sensational headlines, the level of relations among many non-Western countries has been systematically increasing. The countries of the non-West are demonstrating the fastest rates of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Atlantic unity of the West has been severely undermined and continues to deteriorate.
Iran Repeats Thermopylae — But the War Goes On
The failed war between the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran has been paused, but is unlikely to be over forever. Negotiations in Pakistan concluded yesterday, although they led nowhere. But its consequences are already tangible. The impact of this war will be not only regional but also global.
Southern Eurasia Under Destabilization and Conflicts
The war between the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran has passed a certain point. We are still in the fog of war, but some preliminary conclusions can still be drawn. This war is monstrous in its immorality, brutality, lack of norms and rules, real causes, and effective strategy for conducting and exiting the conflict. Moreover, this war has the potential to not only become a fully regional war but also lead to an escalation of the entire international system.
East at a Crossroads of Conflicts
The world’s attention is focused primarily on the conflict in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the potential for armed clashes in another part of the world is no less serious, if not potentially more dangerous. A possible war against the Islamic Republic of Iran by the United States and Israel is still on the agenda. The potential for conflict and hostility between the unrecognized Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is growing.
The Board of Peace and Central Asia
President Donald Trump’s alternative to the United Nations is a very ambitious and global idea, the future of which is unclear. Will the body be in demand, functional, and effective? Will it be able to cope with the challenges and conflicts of our time? What are its real goals? It is difficult to give clear and precise answers to all these questions.
A Year of Anarchy and the South and Central Asia
No sooner had 2026 begun than dramatic events in world politics followed one after another. The problem is not even the speed of these events but the difficulty of systematizing them. Forecasting is a thankless task. And the issue is not only the high probability of error. The conditions of the current transitional international system and the turbulent world make forecasting a process far from scientific. We lack the necessary tools, theory, and sufficient input information.
What Does America’s New Strategy Mean for South and Central Asia?
The United States National Security Strategy, published in late 2025, devotes little attention to the South and Central Asian region. Donald Trump’s second-term strategy is a unique and intriguing document, one that could be described as revolutionary to a certain extent. It primarily focuses on America and its self-serving economic and political interests. The text is informative and remarkably non-confrontational.
Central and South Asia on the Path of Transformation and Conflicts
Important and even fateful historical processes most often occur after very significant events. Major wars, revolutions, and conflicts have often been such events in history. However, long-term political and socio-cultural processes also tend to unfold over long periods of time. This can be especially true for economic processes, which, as is well known, are deeply connected to and often dependent on political processes and relations.
Pakistan Has Brought the Taliban and India Closer Together
Political processes in South and Central Asia are rapidly evolving. Former allies are becoming adversaries and engaging in bloody confrontations, while previously distrusted parties are aligning their positions and seeking common interests. The Taliban are growing closer to India while simultaneously engaging in a fierce confrontation with their former mentor and sponsor, Pakistan. In fact, if this process continues and strengthens, it could be akin to a diplomatic revolution.
Non-West Strengthening Cooperation
Cooperation among leading non-Western countries is increasing. Russia and India will increase the scale of economic cooperation, including in the energy sector. This news has become especially relevant and important in light of recent geopolitical events. It reflects important trends in world politics. Days before, the United States of America sharply criticized Delhi. Washington said that India should not continue to buy oil from Russia.
The BRICS Nations Assert Their Presence
The international system is currently undergoing a complex transitional phase. The United States, once the most influential, affluent, and powerful country, is gradually losing its position as the absolute hegemon. Concurrently, we are witnessing the dynamic rise of the “Others” — non-Western nations across Eurasia, Asia, Africa, and Latin America are exhibiting rapid and sustained economic growth.
South Asia: On the Brink of a New Conflict
The brief military conflict between India and Pakistan in April and May 2025 took many analysts by surprise. Although the two countries lack a formal peace agreement and have a long history of entrenched hostility and strategic rivalry, large-scale direct military engagements have been relatively rare in recent decades.
Turkey and Pakistan Strengthen Military Cooperation
The aggravation of relations in South Asia has caused the activation of the policy of military alliances. Turkey has become increasingly active in the region’s geopolitical processes. Ankara is building close military relations with Pakistan. There are many international agreements between the parties. They regulate various aspects of bilateral relations, ranging from the economy to military and technical issues.
South Asia and the Possibilities of a Regional War
The military confrontation India and Pakistan has ended. At least for now, there is no noticeable escalation, exchanges of fire, or use of artillery on the line of contact. The day before, President Donald Trump announced that India and Pakistan, with the mediation of the United States, had agreed to an immediate and complete ceasefire.
India and Pakistan have escalated their tensions
Two nuclear-armed South Asian countries, India and Pakistan, are rapidly escalating their confrontation. The starting point was a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir (Pakistan disputes India’s territory), which killed more than twenty-five people. On April 22, militants from a group linked to the Pakistani Islamist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba opened fire on tourists in the popular city of Pahalgam.
Taliban and Russia normalize relations
Russia and the Taliban are now bringing their positions closer together in the legal and official fields. The days before, the Russian Supreme Court decided to suspend the activities of the Taliban. Consequently, the Afghan movement is no longer a terrorist organization and is banned in Russia. Moscow’s decision was quite expected.
Complex political and economic dynamics in South Asia
The political situation in Central and South Asia is developing quite rapidly. There is a dynamic that allows us to draw some preliminary conclusions. The political and economic dynamics of recent years have formed a certain regional structure of international relations. New influential players and outsiders have appeared in this international structure of the region. Some regional powers have consolidated their status, while others have lost their positions and weakened their influence.
The BRICS countries are getting closer
The developing BRICS countries are bringing their positions closer together and conducting active diplomacy in different areas. The degradation of the European Union, the victory of conservatism in the United States, and Asia’s economic successes are strengthening the BRICS countries’ role. Also, Russia’s inevitable victory and rapprochement with Donald Trump’s conservative America are leading to global transformations.
Conflict Dynamics in South Asia
The conflict between the Afghan government led by the Taliban and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is gaining momentum. The contradictions have reached a serious level and will soon spill out into the international arena, including the structures of the United Nations. There are two aspects to the conflict. First, the Pakistani military seeks to maintain control and dominant influence over the Taliban leaders.
Different Paths of Development in South Asia
Taliban commander Mawlawi Mansouri has stated that Afghanistan is ready to conquer Tajikistan. A high-profile video confession by a senior Afghan Taliban commander was published by representatives of the opposition and fugitive movement Green Trend of Afghanistan. In the video, Mawlawi Amanuddin Mansouri, commander of the Taliban’s 217th Corps (Al-Omari Corps), located in Kunduz Province, Northern Afghanistan, is seen talking to his confidants.
Ideological twists and turns of Trumpism
Donald Trump’s first actions as the owner of the White House show that he is not just a populist, and his statements are not just bright rhetoric. There is something more behind this. It can be assumed that his steps are determined by ideological attitudes that have settled deep enough in the politician’s consciousness and have become the basis of his administration’s line. Historians of the future will define this ideology more precisely and give it a name.
South Asia Awaits Donald Trump's First Moves
Donald Trump’s largely unexpected and striking victory in the US presidential election could significantly change the dynamics of global geopolitical processes. A significant change in rhetoric, vision of the architecture of world politics, and perhaps the Grand Strategy of a powerful state could affect many actors and subjects of international relations. South Asia is fascinating in this regard.
Taliban blames Pakistan of supporting IS
The conflict between the Taliban and the Pakistani military is intensifying. The Taliban has officially accused the Pakistani government of supporting ISIS, and the number of armed clashes on the Afghan-Pakistani border is rapidly growing. In addition, the Taliban, who captured Afghanistan in 2021, are confident that the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the so-called Durand Line, is unfair.
Crises around and within Pakistan
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is in a situation of deep crisis. Negative trends have surrounded Islamabad on several fronts at once. The conflict, which has grown into open hostility, with the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan is gaining momentum. What seemed like a victory for the Pakistani military in the long term has become a real headache and a failure of the strategy to create a friendly regime in Afghanistan. Political and social problems within Pakistan are also intensifying.
Unstable Stability of Afghanistan
The situation in Afghanistan remains quite complicated. Despite the significant stabilization of political processes under the unrecognized Taliban regime, the economic situation in the country cannot be called favorable. In addition, the problem with the activity of international and regional terrorist groups on Afghan territory and in the South Asian region looks quite dangerous. At the same time, the diplomatic activity of the Taliban is impressive.
Grand Strategy of Non-Western Powers. Part One
The international system is in a state of serious erosion. It is not collapsing under a barrage of conflicts and contradictions but is under a set of unresolved disagreements. The current world order is perhaps one of the most unfair ever. It did not imply a balance of power. It was not based on an agreement between the great powers. It is not a system of compromise and agreement. The collapse of the Marxist-Leninist experiment led to the formation of a unilateral international system.
The Summit of Dissidents of the International System and Cryptocurrency
The BRICS summit in Russia can claim to be the most relevant and significant international forum in many decades. The value of a gathering of leaders from more than thirty countries will be best assessed by historians in the future. The practical results of the summit will become clear only with time. Here I will try to briefly outline the key moments of the event for today. The summit is important for several reasons. Let’s go from the general to the specific.
South Asian Diplomacy and Non-Western International Organizations
The growing influence of non-Western international organizations is a phenomenon that characterizes modern world politics. The rise in influence, power, and attractiveness of non-Western powers is becoming important to international life. This trend is becoming obvious in light of the gradual and logical erosion of the unipolar world and the formation of a new, more multipolar system. Countries such as Russia, India, and China are particularly active and successful.
A new semiconductor power is emerging
India will soon begin producing microchips on its territory. Several large famous companies have decided to invest in this venture, which has allowed the launch of the first line to be brought forward sharply. According to the plan, production should begin before the end of 2026. So far, Taiwan is the leader in this segment. India intends to become one of the main players in the semiconductor production market.
Tajikistan and the Taliban
Three years after coming to power by military means, the Taliban has stabilized the situation in Afghanistan and managed to achieve diplomatic progress in relations with its neighbors. This is especially noticeable in the case of the Central Asian countries which are trying to build rational and stable economic relations with the Taliban. At the same time, paradoxically, the Taliban’s relations with the Islamic Republic of Pakistan have deteriorated to the level of conflict.
Conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan is growing
The conflict between the close allies of the past, the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani military is not abating. Armed clashes on the border have become practically routine, worsening relations between large sections of the population in both countries. Under the government of the Islamic Emirate, Afghanistan remains unrecognized and is experiencing an economic and financial blockade. The humanitarian and economic situation in the country is extremely grave.
Political crisis in Pakistan and the Army
The political crisis continues to develop in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Elite groups are waging a fairly tough struggle for power and economic resources. Such processes are not uncommon in many countries of the world and in various political systems, both democratic and authoritarian. The political struggle between various elite groups, as a process, is quite well described by various theories of political and social sciences.
Central Asia and the Taliban
Central Asian countries, which have a rather limited historical experience of independent statehood, find themselves in a difficult geopolitical situation. It is worth noting that some republics have demonstrated excellent abilities to build states and nations. At least some republics, such as Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, demonstrate very good economic growth rates, demographic development and political stability.
Conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan Heats Up
Contradictions between the two neighbors in South Asia are intensifying, often leading to conflict and even skirmishes on the border. Afghanistan under Taliban rule and Pakistan cannot find a common language and resolve their differences, despite their shared history and cooperation. Observers note that the conflict is associated with possible interference and pressure from China on the Pakistani military.
Russia and India: In the common interest no matter what
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will soon visit Russia. The upcoming trip will be Modi’s first to the country since 2019 and comes less than a month after he was re-elected as prime minister during a weekslong vote. Modi last met Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan in 2022.
Pakistan’s Turbulent Future
From the point of view of any scientific theory, a state can exist and develop successfully only when the opinions of broad segments of the population, including national and religious minorities, are taken into account. Whatever resources a state may possess, stable development can only be achieved by building a broad base of support and consent among its citizens.
On the Path to the Great Power Status: Modi's Victory and Opportunities for India
Instability in world politics, the transitional nature of international relations, and the gradual destruction of the former unipolar Western-centered world order have a serious impact on many major powers. The growing global confrontation between the United States and China, along with the increasing influence, economies, and military potential of non-Western powers, is leading to profound transformations in the international system.
Taliban 3.0: Not rebels, but government
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Justice reported to President Vladimir Putin that the Taliban could be removed from the list of banned organizations. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said “this initiative reflects an objective situation. They are the real power. We care about Afghanistan”, the diplomat said. The logic here is quite simple. Russia recognizes as terrorists those organizations that pose a threat directly to its national security.
Radicalised migration poses a threat to Central Asia?
It is generally believed that countries in Central Asia are major suppliers of migrant workers. The countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, are known for supplying migrant workers, particularly to Russia. What many people may not realize is that Central Asia also attracts students and migrants from South Asian nations seeking employment and higher education opportunities. This can be seen as a sign of successful modernization following Soviet patterns.
Political Scientist: ISIS-Khorasan feels free in Pakistan
In 2015, the ISIS-Khorasan terrorist organization was established in Afghanistan and Pakistan as part of the Islamic State’s expansion beyond Syria and Iraq. The organization’s name comes from the Persian word for the region of Khorasan, which includes parts of several countries in the area. Its propaganda, translated into various regional languages as well as English, promises to create a caliphate in the region.
Silent Recognition of the Taliban is not Enough
Taliban leaders have been discussing the idea of “silent recognition” in their private talks. They are not concerned by the fact that any international actors or member of the UN has not recognised the Islamic Emirate, after nearly three years. They are aware that the Taliban are considered a terrorist organisation by several powerful nations, including Russia. However, they recognise these factors limit the Afghan government’s effectiveness in the international system.
The Taliban and Afghanistan Independence
The situation in Afghanistan and South Asia is developing quite actively. The Taliban, who currently rule the unrecognised Islamic Emirate, are attempting to strengthen their hold on the provinces and remote areas of the country. They are also engaging in active diplomacy in Central Asia, in an effort to gain international recognition and bolster their economic and financial positions.
Balancing the Big Two
A significant number of intellectuals, and social and political scientists believe that the present era is characterized by an imminent confrontation between the United States and China. The political competition for global leadership between these two nations cannot avoid clashing due to their enormous economic potential and military strength. Achieving hegemony in the current world is an extremely difficult, if not impossible, task.
The Taliban can contribute to the fight against IS-K
The terrorist organisation known as “The Islamic State – Khorasan Province (IS-K)” has the potential to become one of the deadliest factions on the continent if it doesn’t face serious resistance. With a relatively small number of bases located in hidden and difficult-to-reach locations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the IS-K organisation has aggressive plans that could pose a threat to the security of several countries in the West and East.
This year will be crucial for the Taliban
In 2024, gaining international recognition for the Taliban will be crucial from a diplomatic standpoint. The unrecognized Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which was re-established after a disorganized and poorly planned withdrawal by the US and NATO armies, is currently facing a challenging economic and social-humanitarian situation. Without diplomatic recognition from any country across the globe, the Afghan state is in a dire crisis.
The evolution of the Taliban can give a change for Afghanistan
There have been notable changes to the social and economic policies of the Taliban. The leaders of the Pashtun radical organization have achieved some success in the diplomatic sector, particularly in Central Asia. Moreover, the criticism of the Taliban’s domestic policies by leading world powers and international organizations has been reduced. However, there are still significant issues concerning security, human rights, women, and national minorities.
Central Asia and Its Role in global politics
There is a significant amount of high-quality scientific literature focused on Central Asia. Social and political scientists, historians, and anthropologists have studied this region for a long time. At the same time, the region cannot be considered as one of the most researched areas. Except for Afghanistan, Central Asia remains an understudied, unexplored, and mystical region for the Western world. The modern independent countries of the region gained statehood in the last forty years.
The Taliban and International Diplomacy
The Taliban regime in Afghanistan is approaching international recognition. Although it may not happen at an official diplomatic level in the short term, there is a clear trend towards this direction. The growing number of states are reducing restrictions on contacts with the Taliban and deepening the quantity and quality of ties with the leaders of the unrecognized Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
Taliban, its evolution and UN experts’ mistake
The UN experts came to rather controversial and too strong conclusions about the Taliban. In the special statement based on research work and analysis, the UN experts noted a total lack of evolution of the Taliban towards becoming a more pragmatic and tolerant organization. I believe, this point of view is just a partial reflection of the complex and tragic realities in contemporary Afghanistan staying under the ruling of the Taliban.
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