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Articles by Gregory Poonsores
Meanwhile, Traders Are Getting Angrier With Every Passing Day
Over the past few weeks, one recurring theme has been that experienced traders and analysts have simply given up trying to figure out the market, and no longer have an idea how to trade what for the past 7 years has been a centrally-planned policy vehicle. As a result they are getting exasperated, confused, desperate and simply angry.
Treasury Yields Tumble Most In 3 Months Despite Fed's Williams Warning
Having pushed higher yesterday, it appears 'investors' have had a sudden change of heart and are panic-buying bonds today, despite Fed's Williams warning that: WILLIAMS SAYS U.S. TREASURIES ARE PRICED EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH. Treasury yields are down 5bps (2Y) to 9bps (10Y) with non-stop buying since Europe opened. 30Y yield's 7.5bps drop is the biggest since Feb 18th, pushing the yield back to its 20-day moving average.
Semiconductors Tell The Real Story Of The Global Economic Slowdown
Semiconductors Tell the Real Story of Global GDP The industrial slowdown predicted by semiconductors is coming true. “We are operating in an environment of sluggish global economic growth, deflationary raw material trends, and heightened geopolitical tensions. The demand picture in China has not yet resolved itself, and growth in Europe and North America remains modest.
Weekend Reading: It's Probably A Trap
Earlier this week, I noted that due to the technical breakout of the market above the downtrend line from last May, an increase in exposure to equity risk was required. To wit: “With the breakout of the market yesterday, and given that ‘short-term buy signals’ are in place I began adding exposure back into portfolios. This is probably the most difficult ‘buy’ I can ever remember making.
Why ISIS Is "Expanding It's Reach" ... Despite Russian and Western Bombing Campaign
The New York Times reported last week: The battlefield successes enjoyed by Western-backed forces in the Islamic State’s heartland have done little to stop the expansion of the militants to Europe, North Africa and Afghanistan.
"My Work Here Is Done"
A 221% return in just one month. But after a moment's thought, it occurred to me............are these guys just adding the numbers together?!?!?
The Scourge Of Socialism
Authored by StraightLineLogic's Robert Gore, via The Burning Platform blog, Human progress has been three steps forward, two steps back. That a non-fringe candidate of a major political party in the United States can call himself a socialist constitutes a leap backward. That it can happen after a century of socialistic horrors: impoverishment, ruination, tyranny, war, and tens of millions dead, bespeaks not just deadly ignorance and delusion, but depravity.
President Obama Explains Why The Land-Of-The-Free Will Ban Tax 'Inversions' - Live Feed
Thanks to an ever-increasing need for tax revenues to fund an ever-increasing horde of government-handout-beneficiaries, the populist-in-chief has once again taken aim at tax inversions for the crusade-du-jour. We look forward to him explaining how this is different (and better for American jobs) from what Donald Trump has suggested.
Saudis To "Modernize" Economy As Interbank Rates Surge & Money Supply Collapses At Record Pace
For the first time since January 2009, 12-month Saudi interbank rates have breached 2.00% - double the 1% lows of August. This 'stress' is also evident in the record pace of collapse of Saudi money-supply. While Riyal forwards have rallied back from extreme bets on devaluation, they remain concerning for Saudi officials who to undertake some deep and fundamental changes to their economy, reforms that no amount of browbeating from organizations like the IMF could induce.
Famed Short Seller Muddy Waters Says It's Just A "Dead Cat Bounce"
Echoing the less than exuberant credit market and confirming Jeff Gundlach's (and former Fed President Dick Fisher), infamous short-seller Muddy Waters' Carson Block told Reuters that the recent rally in the U.S. stock market feels like a "dead cat bounce." "I would say that this does feel like it is a dead cat bounce because how much more ammunition really do policymakers have?" It seems the market was listening... Will 1980 hold up again? Average: Your rating: None Average: 3.3 (3 votes)
Winning The Hillary Way
Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog, The corporate MSM pundits are ignoring the YUUGE upset yesterday in Michigan. Bernie Sanders pulled off an epic upset and it barely gets a mention by the in-the-bag-for-Clinton corporate media. If you ever needed more proof that polls conducted by these morons are as worthless as an Obama promise, see the polls below regarding Michigan. Clinton can’t beat a died in red socialist when she has more money than the Vatican supporting her.
Forget "Ghost Cities", China Turns To "Ghost Screenings" To Boost Box Office
As the world came to depend increasingly on China for growth in the wake of the financial crisis, scrutiny around the economic numbers emanating from Beijing began to build. Despite the contention from the NBS that Chinese data “reflect the real situation,” virtually no one trusts the numbers and as we’ve documented extensively, it’s not even clear, when it comes to GDP at least, that the misleading numbers are all China’s fault.
In Biggest Victory For Saudi Arabia, North Dakota's Largest Oil Producer Suspends All Fracking
Yesterday, during his speech at CERAWeek in Houston, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi made it explicitly clear that Saudi Arabia would not cut production, instead saying that it is high-cost producers that would need to either "lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” adding that there is "no need for cuts as marginal barrel will get out of the market." He was right.
Trading On Eurex Suspended "Until Futher Notice" Due To Technical Issues
While in the US market breaks practically always happen when the market is sharply lower, and are intended to halt any downward momentum, in Europe this simple relationship has yet to be perfected, and for the past hour, following what it announced were technical issues, the Deutsche Boerse-owned Eurex derivatives exchange where futures on such indices as the DAX and Switzerland trade, has suspended trading in its T7 system "until futher notice." Sellers will just have to wait.
Gold Glows, Bonds Bid, Crude Crumbles, FANGs Fizzle
It was all too easy there eh? Never. Gets. Old... The US Open and NYMEX Close were the triggers today... Stocks did not go higher today confounding business TV anchors worldwide... But off last Thursday's lows, it is still impressive... FANGs dropped 1.4% on the day - the biggest drop in 8 days (after 5 straight up days)... Treasury yields declined for the first time in 4 days, led by a 6bps plunge in 30Y (3.5bps 2Y)...
Here Are The 3 Trades Hedgies Are Using To Bet On A Yuan Devaluation
With an ever-increasing horde of hedge fund "speculators" daring to confront The PBOC, here is how they are placing theirs bets on Yuan devaluation... Spot trades are simple but less levered and prone to direct interventionist manipulation. So traders turn to derivatives (more capital effective with their prime brokers) to place their bets. The FX forwards market has shown significantly more selling pressure than spot as traders place bets on timing and expectations of a devaluation.
Dotcom 2.0: SEC Warns "Aggressive Promoters" Took Advantage Of IPO Investors
In a disappointingly familiar (and entirely unsurprising) case of deja vu, SEC Chair Mary Jo White raised the specter of Wall Street taking advantage of greedy mom-and-pop investors once again.
Nationalism & Its Discontents: A Deep Rumination On The Meaning Of Trump
At the end of the cold war, a cadre of neoconservative intellectuals surveyed the debris of the fallen Soviet colossus and boldly proclaimed “the end of history.” The West, said Francis Fukuyama, writing in The National Interest, had won not only the cold war but also the war of ideas – for all time.
Emerging Markets Running Scared with Capital Controls
This has not been a good year for emerging markets. Since many of the emerging economies are commodity-reliant (mainly crude oil), the oil price plunge has also crashed their currencies, which prompted money fear and flight. WSJ quoted the Institute of International Finance that emerging markets suffered record net outflows of $732 billion in 2015, with China accounting for the bulk of that. The Russian ruble, Mexican peso and Colombian peso all hit record lows against the dollar.
Oil Plunges To $28 Cycle Lows As Iran Supply Looms, Stocks Slide
February WTI Crude futures have plunged to new cycle lows at $28.60 (down 2.7%) as Iran supply looms over an already over-glutted global crude market. Brent is down even more (-3.7%). Dow futures are down 60 points at the open. Feb futures (which have just rolled) are under $29... And the new on the run March contract is trading $29.60, down 2.6%... Weighing on US equities... Dow futures down 65 points
Last-Hour Buying-Panic Saves Nasdaq From Longest Losing Streak In 31 Years
It just seemed appropriate... 8 down days as of yesterday was longest losing streak since Jan 2008 but a red close today would have made it 9 down days in a row - The longest losing streak for Nasdaq Composite since May 1984 Deja Vu All Over Again... As once again, USDJPY took over after NYMEX closed... A desperate attempt to squeeze shorts at the open (Most Shorted spiked over 2% at the open) gave way to selling pressure... but then as soon as NYMEX closed - the squeeze resumed...
Something Just Snapped In FX Markets: Rand Crashes Most Since Lehman As Yen Surges To 1-Year Highs
China ripples may be turning into tsunamis. As FX markets creep open, something serious must have snapped. The South African Rand just crashed 10% - the biggest single-day drop since Lehman - to new record lows. At the same time, carry trades are being unwound en masse, smashing USDJPY down to 116.75 (strongest Yen in a year). Somebody do something!!! The South African Rand crashed 10% to a record lows against the USD of 17.9169.
Meanwhile In Shanghai Residents Form Lines To Sell Yuan, Buy Dollars
On Thursday, as the world was focusing on the collapsing Chinese exchange rate, we noted that in a more troubling development, in December Chinese FX reserves declined by a record $108 billion, bringing the total drop for 2015 to over half a trillion, and the cumulative decline since Chinese reserves starting dropping in mid-2014 to just shy of $1 trillion.
Aliso Canyon's Historic Gas Leak Puts Sempra Energy In "Uncharted Regulatory Territory"
Sempra Energy may be entering uncharted regulatory and technical territory with the massive and uncontained Aliso Canyon gas leak, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, as the company and its regulators simply cannot find historical leaks of this magnitude.
Dear Retail Investor: Here's How Your Stop Orders Really Work
As described by Nanex LLC's Eric Scott Hunsader, Retail stop orders await execution, typically at common price intervals (0.00, 0.25, 0.50) at the Wholesaler. Wholesalers know those price levels and can anticipate and exacerbate the downside movement to increase net profits. Wholesalers create a composite view of the Order Book (Bid/Offer at each Price Level) across all exchanges.
GOP Debate Post-Mortem: "Chaos" Trump, "Full Vagina" Fiorina, & "Thug-Life" Cruz Vs "Carpet-Bomb-'em" Rubio
Despite the best efforts to "Le Pen" Trump out of the debate, he still managed to garner the highest votes among poll audiences with regard who 'won' the debate, focusing on killing ISIS family members, border walls, shutting down the internet, and fixing America's roads and bridges. Ben Carson's moment of silence was his first truthful statement in months.
A Brief Rumination on the Coming Cashless Society
Today, I hired an independent researcher to do some legal consulting for me. We agreed on a $100 "detainer". Since I began checking out of the system in 2009, and mainly to avoid any more contact with the IRS, I stopped doing business with all banks.
The 'Goldilocks' Warning
As we enter the final month of the year, stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) have made little progress for the year. Unfortunately, many hedge and mutual funds are lagging well behind on a year-to-date basis. As I stated recently: Importantly, the traditional 'Santa Claus' rally does not guarantee the resumption of the ongoing 'bull market' into 2016. In early November, I laid out the expectation of a market decline back to support which would facilitate the year-end advance.
US Intervention: Before And After
Before death in Libya....Ghadaffi's crime was in "not playing along and selling out". Kinda like Iraq and all. They all should just hand over everything and say thanks...but they did not . There is disinfo on both sides, But the "madman" and people who actually live there never seem to make the NYTimes. "For 40 years, or was it longer, I can't remember, I did all I could to give people houses, hospitals, schools, and when they were hungry, I gave them food.
Iraqi PM Rejects US "Boots On Ground" As Shiite Militias Pledge To Kill US Soldiers
There are probably a lot of lessons we can learn from the conflict in Syria. We might, for instance, pause and reflect on the morality of subjecting millions of people to untold pain and suffering in pursuit of geopolitical expediency. Or we could make a serious effort to reevaluate a foreign policy that too often centers around bringing about regime change in far away lands without considering the ramifications and potential for blowback.
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