Gregory D. Johnsen
- Associate Director, Institute for Future Conflict, U.S. Air Force Academy
- Author and Contributor, Freelance
Washington, D.C.
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Author: Last Refuge. New book: in-progress. PhD @princeton Prev @buzzfeed & UN Yemen Panel. Personal Views
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Articles by Gregory D. Johnsen
How the Houthis Fight, Negotiate, and Win
In early September, the Houthis took Yemen’s port city of Mokha in a lightning, overnight advance. Next, they grabbed the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow chokepoint that controls access in and out of the Red Sea. A month later, the Houthis fired missiles at Riyadh’s international airport, killing at least 12 people and leading Saudi Arabia to cancel its “Davos in the Desert” annual investment forum and other events.
The Houthi Strategy to Break Saudi Resolve
It might be tempting to see recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia as just another round of escalation, but Saudi Arabia had made a conscious choice to de-escalate with the Houthis by normalizing relations with Iran in the 2023 Beijing agreement. Tehran may have pushed to restrain the Houthis, and their attacks on the kingdom had paused until recently. So why have the Houthis chosen to escalate now, and what do they hope to accomplish by bringing the confrontation directly to Saudi soil?
Fighting Escalates Between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis
Sign up now and start listening to "The Warcast!" Already a member? Sign In to have access to our podcasts Fighting between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia has escalated significantly, including deadly missile strikes on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Kerry talks with Gregory Johnsen about the Houthis’ increased attacks and Saudi Arabia’s response.
The Houthis Confront the Mecca Alliance
For the first time in years, the Houthis may find themselves facing a coalition rather than a single country. Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish leaders take part in a Mecca defense pact meeting among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 5. (Handout / Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect) Few things can both flatter and frighten the Iran-backed Houthis as much as the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement that Saudi Arabia has assembled with Turkey and Pakistan.
A Saudi-UAE Thaw?
The thaw between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is likely designed to project a united front, particularly against the Houthis in Yemen. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman meets UAE Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, September 29.
Lawfare Daily: The Houthi War Against Saudi Arabia
For today's episode, Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman interviews Gregory Johnsen, non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf State Institute, to discuss the current war in Yemen. The two discuss the latest developments in the war, the reasons for the Houthis' successes so far, the dilemmas facing Saudi Arabia, and why the situation has gone from bad to worse. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare.
Saudi Economic Recovery Delayed by New Threats
Not long ago, the Saudi economy appeared to be weathering the Iran-U.S.-Israel war relatively well. The East-West oil pipeline had allowed oil exports to continue despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and higher oil prices had compensated for reduced export volumes. In July, oil production had increased to over 8 million barrels per day, its highest level since February.
Pipeline Attacks Expose Limits of Saudi Export Flexibility
Saudi Arabia halted oil and refined product exports from Yanbu after September 10 drone strikes damaged pumping stations on the East-West pipeline. Oil prices rose above $100 per barrel immediately after the attacks, as the market priced in the loss of 4 million barrels per day of Saudi oil. With both its eastern and western export routes now compromised, Saudi Arabia is running out of options to get its oil to market.
Saudi Arabia’s Grim Options as the Houthis Storm Mokha
On September 10, Houthi forces swept south along the Red Sea coast, capturing the port city of Mokha. The next day, they took control of Perim island, which sits three miles off international shipping lanes that pass through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint that leads in and out of the Red Sea. The Houthis’ rapid advance along the coast caused oil prices to jump to over $105 per barrel and put Saudi Arabia in a difficult position with no good options.
The Houthis Capture More Strategic Territory
Sign up now and start listening to "The Warcast!" Already a member? Sign In to have access to our podcasts In recent days, the Houthis in Yemen expanded the territory they control along the Red Sea, strengthening their ability to threaten shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Yemen’s Mokha Under Fire: The Houthis Target Saudi Interests
As the truce in Yemen crumbles after four years, the Houthis are intensively attacking the port city of Mokha, the biggest government-held population center on Yemen’s western coast. Under the fire of drones and missiles, the city is now the main theater of the Iranian-backed group’s return to escalation in the country. The Houthis have been targeting Mokha for three main reasons, which together reveal the intermeshing of domestic and regional dynamics in the context of the U.S. war with Iran.
How Egypt Became the Middle East’s New Energy Chokepoint
The conflict in the Middle East has fundamentally changed Egypt’s role in regional energy security. Until recently, Cairo was focused on reversing declining gas production and restoring investor confidence. But with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to maritime traffic since early March and the Bab el-Mandeb increasingly threatened, Egypt has become the indispensable transit state linking Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea infrastructure with global markets.
Trump’s Impossible Dilemma: Return To War With Iran or Not?
President Trump has led the United States into an impossible dilemma in which resuming and intensifying the war presents one set of alarming consequences while ending it under current circumstances offers at least as many disasters for Washington. People stand on a bridge destroyed after a strike in Hormozgan province, southern Iran, July 18.
Why the Houthis Entered the War
Early on July 23, the Houthis attacked two Saudi-flagged oil tankers, making good on a threat to close the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint to Saudi Arabia. The attacks caused the price of oil to jump above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. They also marked the Houthis’ entry into the broader Iran war, ending months of will-they, won’t-they speculation. The Houthis decision to, at least, dip their toes into the conflict – President Donald J.
The Houthi Balancing Act
As the United States and Iran go back and forth on the 14-point memorandum of understanding, alternatively discussing a final deal and threatening a return to conflict, one card that Iran is likely to play is a resumption of Houthi strikes in the Red Sea. Such a scenario – reduced naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea – would likely cause oil prices to jump and put Iran in a stronger negotiating position.
A Multipolar Foreign Policy: The Houthi Bid for International Recognition
Over the past several years, the Iran-backed Houthi movement has integrated a highly standardized “multipolarity” doctrine into its state-controlled media and diplomatic signaling. The vocabulary is being reproduced with an editorial consistency that points to shared institutional directive rather than independent analysis. The Houthis are conducting a foreign policy aimed at integrating themselves into a world order that can extend them the recognition they believe their movement needs.
Can Yemen Help Bypass the Strait of Hormuz?
A Gulf-Yemen energy corridor could reshape the Arabian Peninsula. But it cannot happen without a durable political settlement involving the Houthis and other Yemeni factions. General view of the downtown port city of Mukalla in Hadramout, Yemen, January 20. (REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed) The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have exposed one of the Gulf’s deepest strategic vulnerabilities.
The Gulf States’ Perspective on the War with Iran, and Where Does Lebanon Fit In?
About the event AGSI hosted two briefings for EU diplomats where AGSI scholars analyzed the Gulf States’ reactions to the ongoing U.S.-Israel war on Iran and the Iranian response. They also addressed Hezbollah’s response, Israel’s operation in Lebanon, and possible future scenarios for the country. This program was convened by invitation only and held under the Chatham House Rule.
April Longley Alley
April Longley Alley is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where her research focuses on Yemen and the Gulf. A leading regional expert with over 15 years of experience in conflict analysis and mediation, she most recently served as the senior expert for the Gulf states and Yemen at the United States Institute of Peace. Previously, she spent four years at the United Nations as a senior political advisor to the U.N. special envoy of the secretary general for Yemen.
The Houthi Conundrum and the War in Iran
Perhaps one of the most surprising things to emerge from the first week of the war in Iran is the absence and relative silence of one of the key members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.” The Houthis, much as they did during Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June 2025, have stayed on the sideline. In 2025, this made more sense. The initial Israeli onslaught, which was followed by U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, took the Iranian regime by surprise.
The Saudi-UAE Rift: Taking the Measure of the Gulf That Separates and Unites Them
The current dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates erupted in December 2025 in Yemen after forces linked to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council took over Hadramout and Mahra, two far-flung governorates. Saudi Arabia responded forcefully in the port of Mukalla, bombing what it said was a shipment of military equipment from the UAE intended for STC-linked forces. The Saudis also took diplomatic and media action, effectively dissolving the STC.
Train and Equip: The Threat of Houthi Partnerships in the Red Sea
The growing partnerships Yemen’s Houthis are cultivating with al-Shabab and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula are a potential threat multiplier for Red Sea security and global supply chains. Weapons smuggling boosts this network, as the Houthis work to shape routes for provisions and revenue to complement their alliance with Iran.
Yemen’s Continuing Crack-Up
The STC’s failed attempt at independence likely means that Yemen won’t split along North and South lines. A Southern Transitional Council soldier stands at a check point in Aden, Yemen, Dec. 31, 2025. (AP Photo) In early December 2025, the Southern Transitional Council gambled big, gobbling up territory across Southern Yemen in an apparent attempt to lay the groundwork for declaring an independent South Yemen. One month later, the STC is in full retreat, withdrawing from the territory it seized.
The New South Yemen
For the past 15 years, since the first fledgling protests of the Arab Spring sputtered to life in December 2010 and January 2011, Yemen has been falling apart, fracturing and collapsing in fits and starts. First came the fall. In 2012, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been in power since 1978, was forced out of power. Then came the coup in 2014 when the Houthis seized power in Sanaa.
Houthi Myth of Israeli-Saudi Collusion May Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
The Houthis appear to be following a North Korean playbook, using recurring cycles of provocation to extract concessions, forcing Saudi Arabia to carefully calculate its security ties. For years the Houthis have sold their audience a simple story. Israel and Saudi Arabia are working together to strangle their movement, and every setback in Yemen is proof. For the Saudis, the story has been easy to dismiss as propaganda.
Three Futures for the Houthis After Gaza
The Houthis have a decision to make. For most of the past two years, the Houthis have positioned themselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause. What this has meant in practice is Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, missile and drone strikes on Israeli targets, and crackdowns on United Nations staffers in Yemen.
Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council Teeters on Collapse
Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, which serves as the collective leadership of the United Nations-recognized government, has reached its most critical point since its formation in April 2022. The council, created under Saudi and Emirati sponsorship to unify Yemen’s diverse anti-Houthi factions, is now deeply divided over power sharing, decision making, and control of resources. Riyadh is holding talks among the members of the council aimed at resolving these disputes.
From Mediation to Margins: The Future of the U.N. in Yemen’s Conflict
Like many other conflicts around the world, Yemen has rarely been a priority for global decision makers. It has often been treated as an internal problem with limited external focus on the needs of the Yemeni population itself. Since the conflict broke out in 2014, the United Nations has been involved in negotiations, and agreements have been reached between the main warring parties.
Exploiting Houthi Vulnerabilities in a Season of Recalibration
The summer of 2025 has significantly reshaped the Middle East. Iran’s strategy of plausible deniability and its network of proxies, both of which were designed to protect the regime from direct strikes, were upended by Israel’s lightning 12-day war and the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah. Now the regime is focused on survival, stamping out domestic dissent, and either rebuilding its proxies or finding another way to exert pressure on Israel and the United States.
Why the Houthis Went Missing in Action
Perhaps the most surprising thing about the 12-day Israeli-Iranian conflict, in which the United States bombed three sites and then negotiated a cease-fire, is what didn’t happen. The Houthis, Iran’s most capable remaining regional ally, largely remained absent. The Houthis fired a handful of missiles at Israel on June 14 and 15, and, then, on June 21, they pledged to attack the United States if it entered the conflict against Iran. Within hours the United States had struck three nuclear sites.
Iran: Unprepared, Defenseless, and Under Attack
Israel’s June 13 decapitation attacks against senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders and nuclear scientists – coupled with precision strikes on multiple nuclear facilities – demonstrate Iran’s persistent inability to learn from its failures in Lebanon and Syria over the past year.
Spy War: Iran vs. Israel
On June 8, Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib claimed that Iranian intelligence agencies had acquired a substantial cache of classified materials from Israel, including documentation related to Israel’s nuclear infrastructure and strategic installations.
Supreme Displeasure
The perceived incongruity between the U.S. government’s confidential diplomatic proposals to Iran and President Donald J. Trump’s public pronouncements against domestic uranium enrichment by Iran has increasingly aggravated the leadership in Tehran.
A New Gulf Partnership
In May, President Donald J. Trump embarked on a trip to the Gulf that signals a new era in U.S.-Gulf relations. AGSI’s A New Gulf Partnership series explores the ways U.S. strategic relations with these countries are evolving and offers policy recommendations for the U.S. administration to maximize political and economic influence.
U.S. Moves Toward New Trump Doctrine for the Gulf
The long-standing partnerships between the United States and the Gulf Arab states have evolved at a remarkable pace over the past decade. President Donald J. Trump’s May visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates accelerated this evolution and opened up new opportunities for both the U.S. and Gulf economies. This rapidly changing region remains strategically crucial, and a new paradigm – a Trump Doctrine – that recognizes this importance is taking shape.
Iranian Media Breaks Taboos
The heterogeneous composition of Iran’s ruling elites has traditionally allowed for a degree of public intra-elite debate. However, increasingly, Iranian media and officials are breaking political taboos. One news agency broke the taboo of pan-Islamism by expressing ethnonationalist concerns about the influx of fellow Shia Afghan migration to Iran.
A Path to a Stronger United States in the Gulf
In May, President Donald J. Trump traveled to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. This pivotal trip demonstrated the favorable opportunity that Trump’s second term in office presents for the United States to create deeper and more profitable relations with the countries of the Gulf.
Arab Gulf States Institute
Former Secretary General of Yemen’s Cabinet and Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister Mutea Dammaj served as secretary general of the Cabinet of Yemen from 2021-24, where he led crisis management efforts and coordinated key government policies during a critical period of national instability. Prior to that, he was a senior political advisor to the prime minister of Yemen from 2018-21, advising on governance, negotiation strategy, and interagency coordination.
Arab Gulf States Institute
Both the United States and the Houthis needed a deal for different reasons. But the deal won’t create any sort of lasting or sustainable framework for peace in the Red Sea. On May 6, following a 52-day bombing campaign in Yemen, President Donald J.
See Something? Say Nothing: The Houthis’ Criminalization of Truth
On May 6, Oman announced it had brokered a cease-fire between the United States and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Within hours, President Donald J. Trump declared the Houthis – who had been targeted by a U.S. air campaign since mid-March – had “capitulated.” But inside Yemen, the Houthis continued to do what they’ve always done in moments of pressure – tighten control, not loosen it. There was no public statement and no acknowledgment of compromise.
Lawfare Daily: The U.S. Bombing of Yemen and the Houthi Response
Published by The Lawfare Institute in Cooperation With For today's episode, Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman interviewed Gregory Johnsen, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C. Johnsen explains the rationale of the Trump administration's decision to bomb Yemen but argues that it will have little effect on the Houthis.
The Lawfare Podcast: Greg Johnsen and Scott Anderson on the Fight Against the Houthis
Published by The Lawfare Institute in Cooperation With Over the last two months, Houthi militants have waged more than 27 attacks against merchant shipping and U.S. and partner forces in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, purportedly in response to the war in Gaza. These attacks have significantly disrupted global shipping and surged the Middle East into an even more precarious security situation.
The Kingpin of Sana’a – A Profile of Ahmed Hamed | Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
In early February, Mahdi Al-Mashat, the youthful 35-year-old Houthi president, called a private meeting of senior government officials in Sana’a. Al-Mashat, who became head of the Houthi-run Supreme Political Council in April 2018, wanted to dispel a rumor that had been gaining traction in recent months. Some on social media and in qat chews around the city were suggesting Al-Mashat was little more than a figurehead.
The Last Refuge by Gregory D. Johnsen
A gripping account of how al-Qaeda in Yemen rebounded from an initial defeat to once again threaten the United States. Far from the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States and al-Qaeda are fighting a clandestine war of drones and suicide bombers in an unforgiving corner of Arabia.
The end of Yemen
Six years ago today, Saudi Arabia announced the beginning of Operation Decisive Storm from Washington, DC. Riyadh said the initial airstrikes were designed to push the rebel Houthis out of Yemen’s capital of Sanaa and restore interim President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi to power. The war, which Saudi Arabia told Obama administration officials would take about “six weeks,” has not gone according to plan. Saudi Arabia has not achieved any of its military objectives in Yemen.
New Fiction from Gregory Johnsen: "Odds Are" - Wrath-Bearing Tree
1. Heads Years later, long after the bodies had been pieced back together, after they’d been bagged and buried, after the lawyers got involved and Code Pink rallied, after the stacks of cash and the nightmares that finally ended, he would still want that one simple thing. The same thing he’d been after that first night. Back when everyone was screaming and crying and looking to him for answers. Back when all he had was a single phone number, a string of digits read out by a voice on the phone.
Foreign Actors in Yemen: The History, the Politics and the Future
Executive Summary Foreign actors have a long history in Yemen. From the first Zaidi imam who arrived in the country in the ninth century to the regional military intervention led by Saudi Arabia in 2015, outsiders have often altered the trajectory of domestic politics in Yemen.
387 Days of Power: How Al-Qaeda Seized, Held and Ultimately Lost a Yemeni City | Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
By Tawfeek al-Ganad, Muhammed al-Katheri and Gregory D. Johnsen On March 26, 2015, Saudi Arabia launched Operation Decisive Storm, which was intended to be a brief air campaign – the Saudis told the US it would take “about six weeks”[1] – to expel the Houthis from Sana’a and reinstate Yemen’s internationally recognized president, Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
The Mistake of Designating the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization
Editor’s Note: This article originally appeared on Order from Chaos. One of Donald Trump’s first foreign policy decisions as president was authorizing a Navy SEAL raid in Yemen. That operation, which he signed off on over dinner, was poorly planned, risky, and rushed. The result: several dead Yemeni civilians, including 10 children, and one dead U.S. soldier. Now, as President Trump prepares to leave office, he looks poised to make another unforced error in Yemen.
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