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Articles by Hailey Low
The Chancellor's Trilemma
GDP is expected to grow modestly over the medium term – by 1.3 per cent in 2025 and 1.2 per cent in 2026 – as businesses report elevated uncertainty and trade policy volatility weighs on UK exports. However, supportive fiscal policy and the rebound in business investment in the first quarter of this year should continue to underpin growth.
An Economy Slowly Returning to Momentum
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In Search of Economic Growth
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, frequently reminds us that the government’s key economic mission is to secure economic growth. In pursuit of this goal, her speech a fortnight ago (29 January) aimed to set out the government’s plan for achieving stronger growth. The speech contained a lot of detailed policy commitments – particularly in relation to specific transport infrastructure projects.
The Economic Impact of Trump’s Early Policies
President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on, in particular, Canada, Mexico and China. What would be the likely effects of these? Over the weekend President Trump confirmed that, from 4 February, 25 per cent tariffs will be placed on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10 per cent tariff on China. He also suggested that tariffs could be applied to the European Union. In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau placed a 25 per cent tariff on American imports.
Five Years On: The Economic Impact of Brexit
Five years have passed since the United Kingdom officially left the European Union. How has the UK economy evolved during this time in relation to the EU economy? Global disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, have affected all economies. However, Brexit has created structural barriers that further complicate the UK’s economic challenges. In 2023, the UK remained the only G7 nation that had not recovered to its pre-pandemic level of GDP.
The Causes of the Bond Market Unrest
From 6 January to 14 January, UK ten-year gilt yields rose from 4.6 per cent to 4.9 per cent, prompting a media frenzy talking about ‘turmoil’ in the gilt markets. Conservative commentators accused the Chancellor of ‘crashing the economy’, partly echoing Labour comments on the Truss/Kwarteng ‘Mini Budget’ of September 2022, where bond yields rose from around 3.8 per cent to around 4.4 per cent.
PFI: Getting the Bill on the Fiscal Credit Card
For the 2025 Dow Lecture, we will be hosting External MPC Member and LSE Associate Professor Swati Dhingra, who will be giving a talk on trade fragmentation and monetary policy.... Register for event Join us for our festive gathering, and help us to mark the year’s accomplishments in a relaxed and enjoyable environment. The evening will commence with our deputy directors Stephen Millard...
BUSINESS INVESTMENT, PRODUCTIVITY AND BREXIT | National Institute Economic Review | Cambridge Core
Hostname: page-component-7b9c58cd5d-nzzs5 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-03-22T15:07:26.463Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 January 2025 Ahmet Kaya [Opens in a new window] , Show author details Abstract References Keywords Brexitbusiness investmentsEuropean Uniontrade and Cooperation AgreementC50E37F40 Type Research Article Information National Institute Economic Review , First View , pp.
Modelling Northern Ireland Within the Context of the All-Island Economy
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A Consideration of Fiscal Targetry
Main points We are looking for the competent management of the public purse by the government in conjunction with the civil service under the watchful eyes of media, press, research bodies and the markets. An overview of the government balance sheet, the changes since the previous year and how it is both sustainable in terms of the market demand for gilts but also in terms of tax revenues required in excess of the returns from any assets held, would lead to a better set of choices over time.
Our Thoughts on the King’s Speech
FT: The new government announced a ‘Budget Responsibility Bill’ ensuring the OBR will produce a forecast ahead of every major fiscal event. Do you think this is a good idea and why? And what other steps do you think the government could take to improve the current fiscal framework? JC: Since the OBR was established in 2010, the ratio of public sector net debt to GDP in the UK has climbed steadily from some 70 per cent to sit now at a fraction under 100 per cent of GDP.
Positive Growth Delivers an Encouraging Momentum
10 May, 2024 Main Points Monthly GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in March, following a revised 0.2 per cent growth in February. This monthly figure was mainly driven by increasing output in services sectors, particularly transportation and storage sector. GDP grew by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 relative to the previous three-month period, a stronger-than-expected growth compared to our forecast last month. This was generated mainly by a widespread increase in services output.
Resilient to the Challenges of the New Reality
The global economy has shown resilience to tighter monetary policies and geopolitical challenges, but GDP growth slowed to around 3 per cent in the past two years. We expect outlook for both advanced and emerging economies to remain lacklustre and forecast global GDP to grow by 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025. Sign in to Access
The UK Economy State of Play
With NIESR about to publish our UK Economic Outlook, could you summarise for me the current state of the UK economy? As the economy stabilises from successive economic shocks, we are left with a sluggish economy with an increasingly limited ability to manoeuvre.
An Overview of the UK Economic Situation
With NIESR about to publish our UK Economic Outlook, could you summarise for me the current state of the UK economy? As the economy stabilises from successive economic shocks, we are left with a sluggish economy with an increasingly limited ability to manoeuvre.
Fixing forecasting at the Bank of England
Let’s face it, the Bank of England’s forecasting performance over the past two years has not been good. For example, in August 2021, the forecast for inflation in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 2.5%; the outturn was 10.7%. Of course, no-one in August 2021 could have predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the effect it would have on inflation in 2022 and 2023.
Endogenous Defaults, Value-at-Risk and the Business Cycle
This paper shows through a simple macroeconomic model that productivity shocks affecting the real economy can generate fluctuations in corporate default rates that are in line with empirical evidence. While the generated default rates are not enough to produce the observed fluctuations of borrowing costs and credit provision, their interaction with risk management rules in the banking sector (Value-at-Risk rule) leads to quantitatively realistic behaviour of bank lending and lending costs.
Services Inflation Poses Risk to Summer Interest Rate Cuts
Main points Today’s ONS figures indicate that annual CPI inflation was 3.2 per cent in March, falling from 3.4 per cent in February, and representing the lowest annual CPI inflation figure since September 2021.
Real Pay Growth at a Two-Year High Amidst Falling Inflation
NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we presented our forecast for the next economic quarter. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, a labour market that... NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we present our forecast for the next economic quarter. As King Charles III is officially crowned, and the...
What is the Current State of the UK Economy?
On 13 February, the ONS released data relating to the labour market, including data from the Labour Force Survey for the first time since October of last year. What does this data tell us about the current state of the UK labour market?
UK Economy Contracts Between 2022Q1 and 2023Q4
NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we presented our forecast for the next economic quarter. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, a labour market that... NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we present our forecast for the next economic quarter. As King Charles III is officially crowned, and the...
GDP Trackers - NIESR
Providing a estimate for the previous month’s GDP, and a full forecast for the quarter of publication, our monthly GDP tracker provides a rolling monthly forecast for GDP growth. Subscribe for GDP Tracker releases This category can only be viewed by members.
Inflation Holds Steady at Four Per Cent, But is Set to Fall in Coming Months
Main points Annual consumer price inflation was 4.0 per cent in January 2024, unchanged from December 2023. This figure reflects upward contributions, such as in the housing and household services, and transport categories, being offset by downward contributions in categories such as furniture and household goods, and food and non-alcoholic beverages.
What Can We Learn From the New Labour Force Survey Figures?
NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we presented our forecast for the next economic quarter. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, a labour market that... NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we present our forecast for the next economic quarter. As King Charles III is officially crowned, and the...
Inflation Past the Peak But Growth Still Slowing
Global GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.1 per cent in 2023 from 3.5 per cent in 2022 and a further slowing, albeit slight, is forecast for 2024. We anticipate slightly faster GDP growth in 2025 due to falling inflation and policy interest rate reductions in advanced economies, despite the lagged effects of previous monetary policy tightening. Sign in to Access
Exploring Alternative Data Sources for Household Wealth Statistics
Exploring Alternative Data Sources for Household Wealth Statistics Household wealth is a crucial indicator of living standards, and can be used to assess financial resilience. The Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) is the most comprehensive source of this data, but there are limitations. This paper explores those limitations and assesses alternative data sources for wealth. Pub. Date 24 January, 2024 Pub. Type
CPI Inflation Rose in December 2023, But is Likely to Fall Below 3 per cent by May
CPI Inflation was 4.0 per cent in December 2023, up slightly from 3.9 per cent in November.
The 2024 Survey of Economists
What is in store for the UK economy in 2024? Our Director Jagjit Chadha and our Deputy Director for Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting, Stephen Millard contributed to the annual survey published earlier this week by the Financial Times. We have grouped their answers in this blog. 04 January, 2024 3 min read
What’s happening to UK inflation and interest rates?
The rate of inflation in the UK fell from 6.8% for the year to July to 6.7% for the year to August. This positive news was followed by the Bank of England choosing not to hike interest rates for the first time since November 2021 – although the current policy rate remains at its highest level in 15 years. That decision, accompanied by the latest data on underlying inflation, raises the possibility that the current cycle of monetary tightening (interest rate rises) may have peaked.
Reassessing the Independence of the Bank of England
This ‘healthy’ review of institutional reforms coincides with heated discussions about the Bank of England’s performance in the past years, which is also in the process of reviewing its own operations and forecasts, and in the context of lowest levels of public confidence in the Bank.
Inflation Falls Less than Expected, with Inflationary Pressures Persisting
CPI fell to 10.1% in March from 10.4% in February. The new inflation coming in between February and March was higher than expected at 0.8%, but was outweighed by the even bigger drop out of 1.1% from the previous March, leading to the slight reduction in the headline of 0.3%. Month on month inflation was positive for 11 out of the 12 types of expenditure, indicating that inflation remains widespread.
What Should the 2023 Spring Budget Contain?
What is the role of fiscal policy and to what extent does the current fiscal framework enable governments to achieve this? The role of fiscal policy is fundamentally to improve the welfare of UK households.
What is it Like to be a Peer Researcher?
How would you describe what peer research is? Peer research is an effective method of collecting and processing qualitative data. A “peer” is a person with a lived experience which is relatable for the group that is taking part in the study. They are involved in conducting the study as they have a better understanding of the participants’ experiences, and can adjust it to any possible differences and nuances within the studied group.
Don’t Stop Paying Interest on Banks’ Reserve Balances
The proposal to reduce public spending by ceasing immediately to pay commercial banks interest on their reserve balances, while superficially attractive, is very dangerous and likely to be counterproductive, for two kinds of reason.[1] First, it would imperil financial stability.
Topic Hub: Britain After Brexit
Our selection of op-eds, videos and podcasts highlighting the issues facing the UK after the EU referendum. The Independent, 8th December 2019 “With days to go until the most important election for our economy in living memory, voters will be going to the polling stations with blindfolds on. Fiscal policy — the decisions on taxation and public spending that determine how much the government borrows – is in disarray.
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