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Articles by Hayden Dimes
Budget 2022-23: at a glance
Improvement The underlying cash balance for 2022-23 is expected to be a deficit of $A78 billion. From there, it is forecast to improve further with the deficit narrowing to $A43.1 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) by 2025-26. This is better than ANZ Research had expected – and it all comes from a stronger economic outlook. Offsetting this partially is the new spending. The primary focus of this is around infrastructure and policies to ease cost-of-living pressures.
What the European conflict means for business
The crisis in Ukraine is a tragedy and the human cost innumerable. But for business in the Asia-Pacific region, at least for now, the first-order impacts of the crisis are unlikely to be substantial. The two nations involved in the crisis - Russia and Ukraine - are large in population but not in economic terms. Sanctions put in place so far have been designed not to significantly damage the West economically, including exceptions to restrictions on the SWIFT financial messaging system.
Budget 2022-23: economic outlook continues to improve
Driving Further improvement to the economic outlook, particularly the labour market, is expected to drive deficits lower across the government’s forward estimates. Relative to the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) in December, ANZ Research expects the deficit to be about $A80 billion lower over the five years from 2021-22. An expected lift in discretionary policy spending will only partially offset the strong improvement.
The budget in pictures
There’s something for everyone in the 2021 Australian Federal budget, with a range of policy measures unveiled across several key planks of business and the economy. " Childcare subsidies worth $1.7bn to help boost labour force participation.” The high levels of spending have surprised many, showing a strong commitment to a new fiscal strategy of continuing to spend until the unemployment rate is below where it was prior to the pandemic.
Australian Federal Budget: what to expect
This spending though will be dwarfed by improvements in the economic outlook providing an expected improvement of about $A170 billion over the same time. One meaningful policy decision is likely to be the extension of the low-and middle-income tax offset which is currently set to expire in 2020-21. There will also be important spending announcements in areas such as aged care.
Border forces: mixed impact
However, the vaccine rollout in Australia and overseas appears to be slower than expected and questions remain about whether quarantine-free travel will be possible - even for those who have been vaccinated. "It is important to recognise that, in and of itself, closing the borders would be a large drag on the Australian economy in the long run.” Australian Department of Health Secretary Brendan Murphy has warned “substantial border restrictions” will remain in place for at least the next year.
Tracking a COVID-recovery
One is that most economic activity loss was due to necessary social distancing related restrictions. This caused a rapid deterioration in economic activity, as seen in the record decline in Q2 gross domestic product (GDP). It could also mean, though, economic recovery may be more rapid than usual as restrictions ease.
COVID-19: less interesting than the weather
Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ The internet searching behaviour of Australians suggests fear of and interest in COVID-19 has subsided considerably. Click image to zoom Tap image to zoom Pinch to zoom During the peak in infections there was a lot of searching for symptoms of the virus, terms like “sore throat” and “fever”.
Off the beaten path to track sentiment via Google searches, foot traffic
Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ As Australia moves through the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, ANZ Research is looking to alternative data sources to provide a timely snapshot of sentiment and economic activity. Click image to zoom Tap image to zoom Pinch to zoom Australia appears to be on the brink of controlling the spread of the virus, with the number of new daily cases in mid-April averaging just 14.
House-buying related searches plummet during pandemic
These frictions imposed on the housing market, combined with the likely sharp rise in the number of unemployed (and underemployed), make it hard to see how house prices, which were up 10 per cent from the low in June 2019, can rise from here. "If this fall eventuates, it would be the sharpest decline in house prices, across a four-month period, since at least 1980.” The ANZ Housing Search Index (HSI) combines internet search numbers for house-buying related terms.
Kyuuka wo tanoshinde ne!
Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ The number of Japanese travellers to Australia has surged. But it turns out this trend is not unique to Australia. Click image to zoom Tap image to zoom Pinch to zoom Around the globe, Japanese traveller numbers are up almost 24 per cent since 2015, compared to almost no growth in the previous 15 years.
International education in Australia: more than just China
Economists and Head of Australian Economics, ANZ The trade war will weigh on the flow of overseas students into Australia in the short term but growth in living standards in emerging nations should prove fruitful for the education-as-a-service sector. Click image to zoom Tap image to zoom Pinch to zoom Tourism and education are the primary drivers of service exports in Australia and China is the strongest contributor – at least up until 2019.
Trade dispute: heading down under
If the global outlook worsens sharply from the trade war, a swift policy response including fiscal stimulus measures would seem appropriate. Furthermore, if conditions worsen, moves from the Reserve Bank of Australia could play an important role. With the official cash rate already closing on its lower boundaries, quantitative easing looms as a legitimate response.
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