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Articles by H.D.P. Envall
Japan’s slush fund scandal unlikely to take the LDP down with PM Kishida
Public discontent with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is palpable over a slush fund scandal involving at least 970 million yen (US$6.5 million) in unreported income from political fundraising parties held by LDP factions. The Kishida cabinet’s approval rating was already in the so-called danger zone, below 30 per cent, and the slush fund scandal has pushed itbelow 20 per cent since the end of last year.
China’s proliferating Pacific police footprint
Following Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) devastating riots in early January 2024, Foreign Minister Justin Tkachenko told journalists that in September 2023 China had offered to provide training, equipment and surveillance technology to the PNG police force. Further, the two countries are in the early stages of negotiations over potential security cooperation.
Cambodia’s strategic overture to France
In just 13 months, the Cambodia–France bilateral relationship has experienced a rapid transformation. The government of new Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has continued its predecessor’s strategic overture to France with rigour. Meanwhile, under President Emmanuel Macron France has embraced Cambodia, aiming to boost its economic, cultural and diplomatic influence in the country and in the ASEAN bloc more broadly as part of Macron’s tilt towards the Indo-Pacific.
Combating depopulation in Japan
Japan’s population began to decline after peaking at 128 million in 2008, registering 125 million in 2022. If this trend continues, Japan’s population is projected to decline to 63 million in 2100, half of its population in 2022. Behind the trend lies Japan’s declining birth rate. Japan’s birth rate declined from 9.5 births per 1000 women in 2000 to 6.8 per 1000 in 2020. A declining population and birth rate coupled with long life expectancy have resulted in an aging population.
Australia engages with the ASEAN it has and works towards the ASEAN the region needs
This week Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will host ASEAN heads of government in Melbourne for the second ASEAN–Australia Special Summit on Australian soil, on the 50th anniversary of the ASEAN-Australia dialogue partnership. Plenty has changed since the first iteration of this summit, arguably the most important diplomatic event hosted by Australia alongside the occasional APEC or G20 summit.
Time for Australia and ASEAN to grasp the regional strategic initiative
Australia hosts its second home-based summit with ASEAN leaders in Melbourne this week at a time when, more than ever, it wants and needs ASEAN to be an effective anchor for the security order in Asia. Yet ASEAN is still striving to resolve its internal divides and leadership deficit to strengthen its leverage in regional and global affairs.
Minilateral solutions to the geoeconomic challenges facing Japan and Australia
If minilateralism is the ‘way to get things done’ in the Indo-Pacific — whether in the security, diplomatic, defence or economic spheres — then what Japan and Australia, as two leading ‘middle powers’ in the region, want to get done is an important question. Though much of the focus on minilateral arrangements is on their security and defence roles, Japan and Australia have a strong interest in using minilateralism to boost regional cooperation in the nexus between economics and security.
Mongolia’s global resurgence and Oyu Tolgoi’s promise
In Mongolia, the economy continues to recover from COVID-19, partly due to the completion of underground construction at the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and record-high coal exports. In domestic politics, constitutional amendments were passed that will see Mongolians vote for an expanded parliament in June 2024.
ASEAN sighs with relief after Taiwan’s election
On 13 January 2024, Taiwan conducted its Presidential and Legislative Yuan elections. The elections, especially the presidential election, were seen as a watershed event amid increasing global attention on tensions in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan’s positioning as a key battleground in United States–China strategic competition. Election night delivered a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) victory in the presidential election.
India’s GDP growth masks economic challenges
Judging by its macroeconomic indicators, the Indian economy performed well during 2023. In January 2024, the country’s National Statistical Office estimated that the growth in India’s real GDP would be 7.3 per cent during the 2023–24 financial year — the highest among the major economies. This estimate is higher than the IMF’s December 2023 projected growth of 6.3 per cent. Even if the IMF’s projections prove accurate, India’s GDP would still expand at least two percentage points more than China’s.
Timor-Leste hits the democratic reset button
Timor-Leste’s last political cycle had two electoral episodes — the presidential elections in 2022 and the parliamentary elections in 2023. In both elections, the public vehemently rejected the main tenets of former president Francisco ‘Lu Olo’ Guterres’ term and returned candidates to key state positions aligned with the revival of conventions established with independence.
How Australia and Japan can boost minilateralism to counter Chinese influence
Middle powers such as Australia and Japan have leveraged minilateral relationships to achieve shared security and economic objectives. But since the minilateralism pursued by Canberra and Tokyo has largely been a response to the rise of China, this raises the question of how Beijing practices minilateralism and what this might reveal about the effectiveness of the Japanese and Australian approach. The appeal of China’s approach in the Global South should give Canberra and Tokyo pause.
The Quad’s growing focus on maritime security
The rise of minilateral initiatives in the Indo-Pacific has attracted worldwide attention as it appears to be a response to the region’s changing balance of power. Yet such groupings can come with their own challenges, particularly when they bring together countries with distinct or only partially converging strategic outlooks. This is especially the case with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the Quad, which brings together Japan, Australia, India and the United States.
Has Shinzo Abe left a lasting legacy? | H.D.P. Envall
Once again prime minister Shinzo Abe — the ultimate princeling of Japanese politics — has resigned because of declining poll numbers and ill health. In May, Abe’s approval ratings in national polls entered what is seen as the “danger zone” for a prime minister (below 30 per cent), although they had improved slightly by August.
What Kind of Japan? Tokyo’s Strategic Options in a Contested Asia
Japan’s recent policy shifts suggest a national strategy designed to present a counterweight to China without challenging it for regional primacy. Additional information Author information H.D.P. Envall H.D.P. Envall is a fellow and senior lecturer in the Department of International Relations at the Australian National University.
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