Heather Long
- Chief Economist, Navy Federal Credit Union
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Chief economist @NavyFederal | Marketplace contributor | Data aficionado | Views my own | Email: heather_long@navyfederal.org
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Articles by Heather Long
The Exquisite Torment of Loving Your Enemy
ISBN9780593819487 Published onJul 07, 2026 Published byAce Pages416 Dimensions6 x 9 Brigitte Knightley’s modus operandi is to write what she wants to read: enemies-to-lovers romances that put the unresolved back in “unresolved sexual tension.” Her work is enjoyed by fans of slow burns, tongue-in-cheek rom-coms, and suffering. The Exquisite Torment of Loving Your Enemy is her second novel and the sequel to The Irresistible Urge to Fall for Your Enemy.
#20BooksOfChristmas2025: You Make it Feel Like Christmas (24), Snow Kissed (25), and Christmas Fling (26) #BookReview #Audiobook
I am continuing to enjoy my Christmas reads this year. My goal was to read all the ARCs and ALCs that I have received this year. At this point, I now have 47 on that list. That means I have to read a minimum of 16 per month to finish them all by the end of December. I don’t think that will happen now, so I will have to finish in January. I have finished 28 at this point, and 4 extras (all novellas) so I’m doing pretty well. Here are my thoughts on #24, #25, and #26.
Welcome to the era of stagflation-lite
Welcome to the era of stagflation-lite (washingtonpost.com) Welcome to the era of stagflation-lite By Heather Long 2025091723171900 The United States is entering a period that looks and feels like stagflation, the dreaded s-word that hasn't been uttered much since the 1970s and early 1980s. It means both unemployment and inflation are climbing.
What’s next if Trump can fire Fed leaders: Higher costs
When I heard about President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, the lyrics to the song lamenting that you “don’t know what you got (till it’s gone)” popped into my head. Cook is fighting the firing, and she appears to have a good chance of winning.
What’s next if Trump can fire Fed leaders: Higher costs
What’s next if Trump can fire Fed leaders: Higher costs (washingtonpost.com) What’s next if Trump can fire Fed leaders: Higher costs By Heather Long 2025082621453900 When I heard about President Donald Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, the lyrics to the song lamenting that you "don't know what you got (till it's gone)" popped into my head. Cook is fighting the firing, and she appears to have a good chance of winning.
Tariffs are making a K-shaped economy for wealthy consumers - The Washington Post
As the dust settles on a wild few days for the U.S. economy, it’s worth remembering this: Big downward revisions to job data typically occur during recessions (or on the precipice of one). In a downturn, the models basically can’t keep up with how quickly the situation is deteriorating.
Why Moody’s picked now to downgrade the United States
Why Moody’s picked now to downgrade the United States (washingtonpost.com) Why Moody’s picked now to downgrade the United States By Heather Long 2025051919342200 The United States has officially lost its perfect credit rating. On Friday, Moody's, for the first time in its history, downgraded U.S. government bonds from the gold star rating of "AAA" to "AA1," the silver medal equivalent. This wasn't a total surprise.
What Pennsylvania factory workers say about Trump’s tariffs now
What Pennsylvania factory workers say about Trump’s tariffs now (washingtonpost.com) What Pennsylvania factory workers say about Trump’s tariffs now By Heather Long 2025051309450600 CONNEAUTVILLE, Pennsylvania — The phone keeps ringing in Kevin Lococo's office with the same question from prospective customers: "Are your products actually made in America?" Yes, Lococo is proud to say.
Why is the economy shrinking?
Why is the economy shrinking? (washingtonpost.com) Why is the economy shrinking? By Heather Long 2025043020050900 You're reading the Prompt 2025 newsletter. Sign up to get it in your inbox. Americans are fearful that President Donald Trump's hefty tariffs will cause a recession. The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter by an annualized rate of 0.3 percent — the first negative growth in three years. What caused this downturn? And is this the start of a Trump recession?
There’s only one way the U.S. avoids a recession Original
There’s only one way the U.S. avoids a recession (washingtonpost.com) There’s only one way the U.S. avoids a recession By Heather Long 2025042122171200 The alarming signs just keep coming since President Donald Trump announced massive global tariffs on "Liberation Day." The price of gold has soared to an all-time high as people rush for the ultimate safe asset. The U.S. dollar has tanked to a three-year low as investors would rather own about anything that isn't American.
Trump caved on tariffs. It took a scary bond market freakout.
President Donald Trump is pushing the economy into a recession. The early signs are already apparent with autoworker layoffs in Indiana and Michigan, a stock market sell-off in recent days and Americans pulling back on spending. But as Trump’s tariffs took effect in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, something even more alarming occurred: panic in the bond markets. Investors started dumping U.S. government bonds. They sold and sold and sold. This is not normal.
Trump caved on tariffs. It took a scary bond market freakout.
Trump caved on tariffs. It took a scary bond market freakout. (washingtonpost.com) Trump caved on tariffs. It took a scary bond market freakout. By Heather Long 2025040919494400 President Donald Trump is pushing the economy into a recession. The early signs are already apparent with autoworker layoffs in Indiana and Michigan, a stock market sell-off in recent days and Americans pulling back on spending.
Another ‘shock’ is coming for American jobs
Another ‘shock’ is coming for American jobs (washingtonpost.com) Another ‘shock’ is coming for American jobs By Heather Long 2025040110003500 When a recent Harvard University graduate expressed concern to me last summer about getting a job — any job — I brushed him off. Hiring had slowed, but it was hard to imagine an Ivy League alum would struggle.
Something worse could be coming for the economy than a recession
President Donald Trump is pushing the economy to a breaking point with sweeping tariffs and rapid cuts to immigration and the federal workforce. There is growing fear of not just a recession but stagflation, a frightful situation — not seen in the United States since the 1970s — in which the economy contracts and people lose jobs but prices remain high. This is a self-inflicted wound from Trump.
Something worse could be coming for the economy than a recession
Something worse could be coming for the economy than a recession (washingtonpost.com) Something worse could be coming for the economy than a recession By Heather Long 2025033111004900 President Donald Trump is pushing the economy to a breaking point with sweeping tariffs and rapid cuts to immigration and the federal workforce.
Is the United States headed toward a recession?
You're reading the Prompt 2025 newsletter. Sign up to get it in your inbox. Consumer confidence is tanking, stocks are falling and Wall Street banks keep raising the odds of a downturn. Over the weekend, Fox News asked President Donald Trump if a recession could happen this year. He replied, "I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big." That response heightened fears of what's ahead and sent stocks tumbling on Monday.
A Trump recession has become a real possibility
Americans are growing fearful of a recession. It's not here yet, but President Donald Trump is steering the country toward a downturn with his tariffs and cuts to spending and the federal workforce - for no logical reason. Trump has raised tariffs to their highest levels since the 1940s. The scale and scope of his levies on imports from China, Mexico and Canada are beyond anything he imposed in his first term. And he has only just begun.
Trump is badly misreading today's economy
The president's tariffs will make America's whack-a-mole inflation problem worse. The United States still has an inflation problem: Prices have risen 3 percent in the past year, according to the latest data. It's not the kind of hair-on-fire situation that Americans experienced in the summer of 2022 - remember 9 percent inflation? - but it still hurts. Prices for eggs and auto insurance have skyrocketed. Those for gasoline and other groceries are rising, too.
The unexpected impacts of ending remote work
The balance of power between employers and workers is shifting as remote-work policies change. Employees have gotten used to hybrid or remote work, which has, among other things, allowed many the flexibility to move to cheaper or more pleasant locales. But with companies increasingly wanting people back in the office, and with President Donald Trump saying federal employees need to end remote work, lives are being upended.
The real reason for Trump's tariffs
Welcome to President Donald Trump's trade war 2.0. So far, it's a lot like his trade war 1.0. He threatens draconian tariffs. Widespread outrage and pushback ensue. A last-minute deal emerges, and the tariffs are called off, except on China. This is essentially what happened in 2018-2019. And it happened again this week with Canada and Mexico.
Trump can't have 'drill, baby, drill' unless prices go up
China's DeepSeek has developed an artificial intelligence model that's cheaper and more energy-efficient than anything American AI has achieved. This news stunned Silicon Valley tech companies, and it also rattled the energy sector - by casting doubt on the assumption that the United States will need massive amounts of electricity to power the AI revolution. Just last week, President Donald Trump touted the need to build electric plants next to AI facilities.
The L.A. fires could spur changes affecting all American homes
The Los Angeles fires are likely to mark a turning point in how homes are built and insured in the United States. The apocalyptic images coming from the Palisades and Eaton neighborhoods are unforgettable, and the destruction is massive: 27 lives lost, 12,000 structures gone and $40 billion in insured damages. The toll will almost certainly rise. Ultimately, these fires could spur changes that touch every American home.
Biden's clemency for 'kids for cash' judge is a big mistake
My jaw dropped when I saw Michael Conahan, a former judge involved in anotorious "kids for cash" scandal in Pennsylvania, among the nearly 1,500 people President Joe Biden granted clemency to last week. The White House portrayed the mass clemencyas a historic moment for justice. But Conahan's commutation only underscores how broken the presidential pardon clemency is. I don't know much about most of the people on Biden'slist, but I do know a fair amount about Conahan.
A Michigan roofer's smart plan to end the housing crisis
5 min Bryan DeHenau spends his days fixing other people's roofs, yet he can't afford to buy a home of his own. At age 38, he rents an apartment with his mom outside Detroit. His life story illustrates the American housing crisis - and suggests how to solve it. "I'm just as much invested in this problem as anybody in this country," DeHenau told me. "We just need more housing of every type." DeHenau started roofing as a teen in the 1990s.
Trump's sweeping change thankfully doesn't involve treasury
Apparently, one thing that still intimidates President- elect Donald Trump: the markets. That’s the biggest takeaway from the dramatic process that culminated in Trump finally naming hedge fund mogul Scott Bessent as his pick for treasury secretary. After a slew of jaw-dropping Cabinet choices, he opted for a more conventional pick to lead the nation’s most important economic agency.
Scott Bessent as Trump’s treasury secretary is a Wall Street peace offering - The Washington Post
Democracy Dies in Darkness Hedge fund mogul Scott Bessent is a peace offering to Wall Street. Still, he’ll likely back tariffs and Federal Reserve pressure. November 22, 2024 at 7:21 p.m. EST Apparently, one thing that still intimidates President-elect Donald Trump: The markets. That’s the biggest takeaway from the dramatic process that culminated in Trump finally naming hedge fund mogul Scott Bessentas his pick for treasury secretary.
Trump’s big problem: Housing costs and mortgage rates - The Washington Post
President-elect Donald Trump has about everything going for him lately, except this: Mortgage rates are rising again, nearing 7 percent. He got elected promising the opposite. “We will drive down the rates so you will be able to pay 2 percent again, and we will be able to finance or refinance your homes drastically,” Trump said in September.
Voters sent a clear message against inflation, globalization
The top explanation for president-elect Donald Trump’s victory is that Americans hate inflation. Voters want to see prices go down, and they are angry this has not happened for most items. This isn’t unique to the United States. Incumbents in every developed country have lately lost reelection because of outrage over the high cost of groceries, housing and entertainment. Democrats hoped voters would recognize that the U.S. economy is faring much better than almost any other in the advanced world.
The Trump voter shift that should alarm Democrats most - The Washington Post
Donald Trump won more votes than he had before almost everywhere in the United States. Voters shifted right in rural areas, in suburbs and even in New York City. But it’s the urban areas that should unnerve Democrats most. These places are led by liberal mayors and city councils. They are diverse, and they are economically powerful. Take a look at America’s 50 biggest local economies (as measured by GDP in 2022). In 2020, Trump won only one of them.
Voters sent a clear message on inflation and globalization - The Washington Post
Democracy Dies in Darkness It turns out Americans hate rising prices more than job losses. November 8, 2024 at 6:30 a.m. EST The top explanation for president-elect Donald Trump’s victory is that Americans hate inflation. Voters want to see prices go down, and they are angry this has not happened for most items. This isn’t unique to the United States. Incumbents in every developed country have lately lost reelection because of outrage over the high cost of groceries, housing and entertainment.
Americans are better off economically
The data is clear: Americans are better off economically than they were four years ago. I understand many people aren’t feeling it because of the inflation hangover that has left prices noticeably higher than they were in 2020. But it’s important to step back and assess the full picture. kAmu@FC J62CD 28@[ E96 H@C=5 H2D :?
Are Americans better off than they were four years ago?
As Election Day is here, the data is clear: Americans are better off economically than they were four years ago. I understand many people aren’t feeling it because of the inflation hangover that has left prices noticeably higher than they were in 2020. But it’s important to step back and assess the full picture. Four years ago, the world was in the mist of the COVID-19 crisis.
Are Americans better off than they were 4 years ago? - The Washington Post
As Election Day arrives, the data is clear: Americans are better off economically than they were four years ago. I understand many people aren’t feeling it because of the inflation hangover that has left prices noticeably higher than they were in 2020. But it’s important to step back and assess the full picture.
Opinion | The economy is strong heading into Election Day. Will it matter?
Democracy Dies in Darkness The last batch of economic numbers before the election are in, and they’re looking pretty good. So why aren’t voters feeling them? November 1, 2024 at 1:20 p.m. EDT You’re reading the Prompt 2024 newsletter. Sign up to get it in your inbox. Voters overwhelmingly say the economy is their No. 1 issue. There has been a barrage of data this week on jobs, inflation and growth. Most of it has been really positive, yet voters don’t feel that great.
Why the United States does not need a sovereign wealth fund - The Washington Post
Democracy Dies in Darkness Trump says the United States needs a sovereign wealth fund, and so does the Biden administration. Be skeptical. October 31, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. EDT Does the United States need a sovereign wealth fund? Last month, Donald Trump said yes, it does. Some of President Joe Biden’s top aides agree. They have been working on a proposal to make it happen.
Opinion | How much should we be tipping?
Americans feel like they’re being asked to tip for more services than ever. On the latest episode of “Impromptu,” columnists Theodore Johnson, Heather Long and Molly Roberts talk through why tipping culture is so weird these days and why we might want to rethink the system. Use the audio player or The Post’s “Impromptu” podcast feed to listen to the entire conversation.
Wash Post: ‘The new American Dream should be a townhouse’ - ‘Are more climate-friendly’ with ‘increased density’ & are ‘important step toward more environmentally friendly cities’ - Climate Depot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/american-dream-buy-townhouse/ The new American Dream should be a townhouse Americans are desperate for more affordable and low-maintenance housing options. By Amanda Shendruk and Heather Long October 21, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT Excerpt: Owning a home has long been a core part of the American Dream. Today, however, there simply aren’t enough affordable options, and that ideal is increasingly out of reach.
Here’s why townhouses are quickly becoming the new American Dream - Washington Post
Americans are desperate for more affordable and low-maintenance housing options. October 21, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT Sorry, a summary is not available for this article at this time. Please try again later. Owning a home has long been a core part of the American Dream. Today, however, there simply aren’t enough affordable options, and that ideal is increasingly out of reach.
Opinion | Did Trump’s all-female town hall achieve anything?
Democracy Dies in Darkness The former president has been unpersuasive on abortion, child care and other issues that matter to women. October 16, 2024 at 4:04 p.m. EDT You’re reading the Prompt 2024 newsletter. Sign up to get it in your inbox. Former president Donald Trump is struggling with women. Polls consistently show that Vice President Kamala Harris is overwhelmingly winning with female voters (and even gaining ground among White women).
We should be celebrating economy
By just about every measure, the U.S. economy is in good shape. Growth is strong. Unemployment is low. Inflation is back down. More important, many Americans are getting sizable pay raises, and middle-class wealth has surged to record levels. We are living through one of the best economic years of many people’s lifetimes. Yet it’s barely mentioned in popular culture or on the campaign trail. Polarization in the United States makes it difficult to talk about any truth, even about the economy.
2024 is one of the best economic years of many people’s lifetimes - The Washington Post
Updated October 10, 2024 at 9:00 a.m. EDT|Published October 10, 2024 at 7:30 a.m. EDT By just about every measure, the U.S. economy is in good shape. Growth is strong. Unemployment is low. Inflation is back down. More important, many Americans are getting sizable pay raises, and middle-class wealth has surged to record levels. We are living through one of the best economic years of many people’s lifetimes. Yet it’s barely mentioned in popular culture or on the campaign trail.
The real reason 47,000 dock workers are on strike: Automation - The Washington Post
Democracy Dies in Darkness For American workers, this is one of the first great battles against advanced automation. October 1, 2024 at 8:09 a.m. EDT For the first time since 1977, dockworkers are on strike at all East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. Some 47,000 workers have stopped unloading the massive containers full of everything from cars to toys to bananas. News stories have focused on how the strike will affect consumers. Will there be enough toys for Christmas? Which grocery prices will rise?
Why companies like Amazon are ending remote work - The Washington Post
Democracy Dies in Darkness Employers are gaining more leverage, but five days a week is a stretch. Hybrid work is here to stay. September 30, 2024 at 6:30 a.m. EDT Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy just became the latest high-profile boss to insist that workers in the head office return to the their desks five days a week, most weeks (with exceptions for problems at home, work travel and the occasional need to work with zero distractions).
Does having children make us happier? - The Washington Post
The latest episode of Impromptu tackles the fertility crisis. September 19, 2024 at 8:00 a.m. EDT Politicians and economists are ringing the alarm about declining fertility rates. But the decision to have children isn’t black-and-white for many Americans.
Significant rate cut would keep economy on solid ground
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The Federal Reserve should take bold action to prevent a recession - The Washington Post
The Federal Reserve should go big in September with a 50-basis-point cut in its benchmark interest rate. September 6, 2024 at 3:28 p.m. EDT The United States is not in a recession, but there’s a real chance it could be soon. The herculean economy of 2023 is past, and the situation now is fragile. The economy is cooling. Growth Consumers are no longer splurging; they’re value-hunting. Business leaders have turned cautious, and in most industries hiring is tepid — or nonexistent.
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Harris has released her economic plan, full of good and bad proposals - The Washington Post
August 16, 2024 at 2:25 p.m. EDT You’re reading the Prompt 2024 newsletter. Sign up to get it in your inbox. Vice President Kamala Harris is out with her economic plan “to bring down costs for American families.” There’s already a lot of buzz about her proposals to go after corporate “price gouging,” cut taxes for families with kids and offer $25,000 in aid to first-time home buyers. And those are just a few of the ideas.
HEATHER LONG: Do the math. Recession risks add up.
When I saw the stock market rout in recent days, I was relieved. The big dip did two things that were much needed: First, it took some craziness out of the market. The “magnificent seven” tech stocks needed a reality check on their valuations, and they got it. Second, the big dip pretty much guarantees the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September — and probably a few more times this year. The risk of a recession is now clear for anyone to see. Is the United States already in a recession?
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